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Elusive Tunbridge

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Posts posted by Elusive Tunbridge

  1. I think that halfway through last year AFL management saw that without help to get back on its feet MFC would collapse. Essentially, they took us over - put in PJ, helped him recruit Roos, gave us Pick 3 for Frawley. Now we're on our own - financially sound, a good and developing list, a growing membership. I'm brimming with off-season optimism.

    • Like 3
  2. The shift nutbean describes is just a collective adjustment to an unpleasant but increasingly evident reality. I think we got Pick 3 for Frawley as part of a backroom understanding between PJ and GMcL over the provisional pick we were denied, incidentally.

    And "groupthink" is actually a technical term from social psychology that has never been used accurately on this forum, as far as I'm aware.

  3. lol?

    Yeah, rethinking. Ignoring leap years, the chance that another person has a different birthday from you is 364/365. The chance that two are different is 364/365 squared, the chance that one of them is the same as you is 1- (364/365 squared). Still pretty low, but when you raise it to the 71st power the chance of at least one person sharing a birthday with you is quite high.

  4. Ignoring overage players, If each team on average takes 4 players then 72 players are drafted then it's 71/365.25 that 2 people with the same birthday will get drafted. then it's a further 3/71 that that player will be drafted to the same team.

    so that makes it 216/25932.75 which is 0.83% chance that 2 players with the same birthday will drafted to the same team each year

    Sorry, mog. All wrong. The chance that a set of 72 people all have unique birthdays is very low indeed.

    • Like 1
  5. Hi Graeme. I'm too biased to call it on Trenners. Very keen on him and I believe if fit he'll reclaim his spot - but then, I always thought he should have been drafted ahead of Voldemort, just a terrific natural footballer. I know nothing about the risk of a recurrence, just a matter of waiting and hoping.

    • Like 1
  6. Pedo does no more than compete in the ruck, but he's more than adequate in the forward line. He leads, marks and kicks quite well. At the very least, the third defender has to watch him and can be led up the ground, opening the forward line.

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