When I started this series I had a bit of an ulterior motive in that I often think that Geelong draft guru Stephen Wells is overrated because of his success during the early naughties when he plucked out players such as Harry Taylor and Steve Johnson. I mean under his guidance the Cats have also had their share of blunders – Billy Smedts (pick 15, 2010), Darcy Lang (pick 16, 2013) and Nakia Cockatoo-Collins (pick 10, 2014) to name a few that didn’t come off.

And I thought that maybe Jason Taylor had become someone who we all give a tick of approval too, based on his success in 2014 and 2019, without thinking of his misses – primarily his failure to find a key forward until JVR and his failed stabs at finding a decent back up ruckman. 

But as many of you have summised in your comments, Taylor has an incredible strike rate, plus a really good awareness of what to look for, not to mention his affinity with the WA kids - Van Rooyen, McVee, Rivers and Jackson are all quality choices. 

Indeed you could justly argue that if we hadn’t kept trading away Taylor’s draft picks to either upgrade or bring in second-rate players at the expense of second and third rounders, we’d be a lot better off.

As a result of this year's failing, the spotlight will be on Tim Lamb when Melbourne enters the trade/draft period this season – and rightfully so.

The role of list manager means you are the subject of criticism and most likely inaccuracies from bloggers like me, but after a bad season like this one, there’s a big queue that want Lamb out of the place and I’m inclined to think they have a point.

Three years ago, he, and we, were feted in the media. Back then we had the best list and it was full of youngsters. A dynasty was expected after claiming the 2021 flag. Compare that to now.

Since 2022 we have lost five premiership players – Jackson, Hibberd, Brayshaw, Harmes and Jordon – on top of losing three important fringe players – Hunt, Bedford and Baker. Our Jackson replacement Brodie Grundy has come and gone.

Ben Brown will join the list of departures post-season as injuries have crippled him for the past three years. He’s now 32. Charlie Spargo must be thinking about it to after falling victim to a persistent achilles problems. T-Mac will probably want to play on and after a solid season down back, few would deny him that right, even at 32. Same goes for Melky, now turning 33.

The worrying thing for Lamb is that virtually none of his moves to improve the list have paid big dividends – Ed Langdon being the one exception in 2019. Surprisingly Grundy, the most publicised pick-up, didn’t pay off. That’s not entirely Lamb’s fault, in fact I’d argue his recruitment was a clever and cheap recalibration once Jackson left with the Pies paying $250K of his salary and his asking price a mere second rounder in a dud draft year. Goodwin’s failure to adapt and use Gawny as the more permanent forward, rather than Grundy, arguably cost us the 2023 flag.

But in the past three years aside from Grundy, Lamb’s brought in Dunstan, Hunter, Schache, McAdam, Fullarton and Billings from other clubs – that’s hardly a sign that he’s a judge of players and then on top of that he’s regularly offloaded our future first rounders – in 2020 it was done so that we could acquire Bailey Laurie and then last year he gave away three pretty good picks to progress up the order by two spots for a player – Tholstrop – who almost certainly would have been available at our original pick.

Thankfully last year he didn’t offload our future first rounder, because it now shapes up as being around pick 7 or 8. He did though get rid of our second rounder (currently pick 27) to Adelaide for McAdam.   

Lamb’s record is a little why I’m wary of our mooted Dan Houston deal. Houston, if we get him and it seems like we are indeed a chance, is a quality player and will provide us with a clever, taller long-kicking defender – something we are clearly lacking. He will be our best pick up since Langdon.

But Houston turns 28 in May and talk of us offering two first rounders for him is hopefully well off the mark. Lever was 21 when he came to us for two first rounders. Our options are to throw Sparrow or Salem, if they wanted to go, into their deal and see if they’d accept our second rounder (linked to Sydney) and third rounder (linked to St Kilda). But most likely Houston will require our first rounder and, in this case, I’d offer them our future one instead of this year’s one, as I reckon our bounce back chances are high next year and giving Taylor pick 7 or 8 this year should net us a pretty handy kid as well. If Power plays hard ball for this year’s pick 7 or 8 as part of the swap, then I’d request their second rounder back in return so Taylor can at least try and work some magic. 

Aside from finding a mid-sized long-kicking running defender, we also have to ensure that we get some mature back-up bigs for Gawny. We don’t and won’t be able to secure a genuine top liner so we should be trying to find a mature delisted back-up ruckman like Braydon Preuss or a standout tapman at VFL level like Coburg’s Cooper Keogh. We can’t solely rely on Will Verrall developing quickly.

And if the VFL’s best defender Adam Tomlinson leaves for a club willing to give him more opportunities, then I’d be keen on us bringing in an experienced back-up tall to replace him and if Sam Weideman was happy to come back I’d take him as a UFA as he can provide cover at both ends of the field – we will be losing Schache and Ben Brown after all.

We also will pick up Noah Yze, Adem’s son, who is rated well outside any top 25 kids lists and I imagine he’ll be a rookie choice a la Kynan Brown last year. 

But ultimately our philosophy should be to make sure to give Taylor as many kid picks as we can. Aside from Ben Brown and Schache,  Lachie Hunter will depart and I expect Tomlinson will move as well to a club that needs him. Joel Smith will surely be delisted as well. I’d certainly hold off on re-signing Melky, instead I’d make him one of our assistants if he’s willing to fill such a role. I suspect Billings, who is contracted, may want to retire instead of going around again and as stated, Spargo’s achilles may also see him finish up a year early.

But the other big list changes in the off-season should be to our ageing management and coaches.

Tim Lamb is the likely first scapegoat given it’s his area that we have underachieved.

CEO Gary Pert and Footy GM Alan Richardson are both 59 and it’s time that at least one of them moves on – Hawthorn youthful management environment has worked wonders this year and we need to start a phase out with one leaving this year and the other going next. 

I love what Mark Williams does – he’s a born coach, given his constant communication to players on fundamentals. But I do worry that his message is lost a little with a lack of respect stemming from the age gap – he’s about to turn 66 after all.

And just as Lamb’s exit papers should have been stamped, so to should our forward coach Greg Stafford. He may be a great bloke, but at 50, it’s time for us to refresh our feel around Goody.

McQualter and Chappy are still just 38, so they are in the prime of their tuition years.

I know some here have also suggested it’s time to move on fitness coach Selwyn Griffith and they may have a case as well given our last quarter fadeouts mid-season, but I certainly don’t feel qualified enough to assess that area.

Whatever happens, I think we are in for an intriguing blood-spilling off-season. But my hope is that we give Jason Taylor enough line to hook a few gems. 

Interesting points 

A very important offseason awaits us….

Changes are needed right through the Club, but not too many 

They simply must be the right ones…

Well done on a great series mate, really appreciate your work and have enjoyed reading your insights.

Taylor has been huge for this club and is clearly a massive part of our recent success. Huge off-season coming up. Taylor, Lamb & Co have to nail it, or the near future could be rough.

many thanks for this series.  It has reopened a few wounds and brought back some moments of joy

41 minutes ago, Bimbo said:

many thanks for this series.  It has reopened a few wounds and brought back some moments of joy

I Concur, my bread mascot friend

He is also clearly mad. I mean, multiple drafts selecting talls based on sharing a name with US President's, and now he's switched to obscure typesof cheese.

Completely bonkers, I say.

Good article & agree with most of it.

Minor point It's Nakia Cockatoo not Cockatoo Collins & he had talent but was cruelled by injury.

The recent trading has been disastrous. Compare our last year with Hawthorn who traded in Meek, Chol, Ginnivan & Amon & who are all playing good football.