PODCAST: Rd 16 vs GWS

[binman 39,070]

15 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Field kicking issues aside, we have a forward-line game plan that exacerbates our goal-accuracy issues - we deliberately kick to contests with the aim of bringing the ball to ground which means shots on goal consistently come with pressure.

Yes sure, that means we have a better shot at retaining the ball inside 50 for repeat attempts but if the repeat attempts are consistently inaccurate (because of our kicking deficiency x pressure), at what point do we look to change that strategy to at least see if there is another way?  

Or is the answer, we don’t change, we just hope luck swings our way soon? 

Basically, with the advent of tbe sophisticated defensive zoens, every team is the same forward line game plan, including the pies.

The exception is the cats and the lions, who both try to engineer as much space as possible to give Hawkins, daniher, hipwood and Cameron opportunities to be one out. But even doing so, as soon as the ball is stopped zones get back and it becomes all but impossible to find space ot take contested marks.

The only way to create space now in footy, is win the ball from centre clearances whilst the 6 6 6 is still in force (which was brought in for exactly this reason - create space and one on ones in the forward line by stopping teams flooding their defensive zone) OR go fast on transition so teams can't get their defensive zones set.

The latter is basically the pies game plan, and how we played preseason and rounds 1-6.

I know this sounds a little fey, but i really wish dees fans had more faith in goody. He has well and earned that with our team's first flag in 57 years. If that holds no water because it is history, then I don't want to hear about the program not working last year.

We won't flick a switch as such, more slowly open the valve. And if they have got their fitness program right, we will soon (rounds 19 or 20?) be back to our offensive, fast transition best.

Stay the course people. Have some faith. 

It's all about winning the war, not the battles

  

[Stu 879]

21 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Field kicking issues aside, we have a forward-line game plan that exacerbates our goal-accuracy issues - we deliberately kick to contests with the aim of bringing the ball to ground which means shots on goal consistently come with pressure.

Yes sure, that means we have a better shot at retaining the ball inside 50 for repeat attempts but if the repeat attempts are consistently inaccurate (because of our kicking deficiency x pressure), at what point do we look to change that strategy to at least see if there is another way?  

Or is the answer, we don’t change, we just hope luck swings our way soon? 

I believe the FD's logic is this: Our players are more fatigued than earlier in the year, so rather than kick to an open forward line where the ball may sling shot back out, requiring our players to sprint back into defence, they slow down to allow our players to get back and either;

1. Take a contested mark
2. Kick a crumbing goal from the marking contest, or
3. Create a stoppage (or several) in the F50

You're right in that it exacerbates our poor kicking - it typically puts players under more pressure when having a shot in open play or puts them at sharp angles for set shots.

IF the game style change is due to fatigue and protecting players during the 'second act' of the season, the FD knows they risk losing games because it highlights the lists deficiencies. But they likely see that as acceptable in order to protect players from burnout and injury that an end-to-end game might cause at this time of the year. 

We will know in about 4-6 weeks whether the game plan change we've seen for the past 6 rounds was a short-term change to accommodate the challenges of the middle part of the season, or if the FD lost it's nerve and reverted to a 'safe' style. 

We're 2-4 since the Port game, having lost by 4, 7, 15, and 2, and beaten the league leaders during that time. If the players are playing poorly, and/or the game style is terrible - it won't take much for us to turn games into wins, given how close we've been despite how terrible it may seem. 

 

[ANG13 1,567]

1 hour ago, binman said:

And Hunter was a good pick up - adding an elite kick straight in to the 22. 

Is he really an elite kick?

According to Wheelo’s ratings Hunter’s kicking efficiency this year is 56.4%, Langdon’s is 62.9%. 

[Binmans PA 26,468]

1 hour ago, Stu said:

I believe the FD's logic is this: Our players are more fatigued than earlier in the year, so rather than kick to an open forward line where the ball may sling shot back out, requiring our players to sprint back into defence, they slow down to allow our players to get back and either;

1. Take a contested mark
2. Kick a crumbing goal from the marking contest, or
3. Create a stoppage (or several) in the F50

You're right in that it exacerbates our poor kicking - it typically puts players under more pressure when having a shot in open play or puts them at sharp angles for set shots.

IF the game style change is due to fatigue and protecting players during the 'second act' of the season, the FD knows they risk losing games because it highlights the lists deficiencies. But they likely see that as acceptable in order to protect players from burnout and injury that an end-to-end game might cause at this time of the year. 

We will know in about 4-6 weeks whether the game plan change we've seen for the past 6 rounds was a short-term change to accommodate the challenges of the middle part of the season, or if the FD lost it's nerve and reverted to a 'safe' style. 

We're 2-4 since the Port game, having lost by 4, 7, 15, and 2, and beaten the league leaders during that time. If the players are playing poorly, and/or the game style is terrible - it won't take much for us to turn games into wins, given how close we've been despite how terrible it may seem. 

 

Great post. Completely agree.

[binman 39,070]

3 hours ago, Stu said:

I believe the FD's logic is this: Our players are more fatigued than earlier in the year, so rather than kick to an open forward line where the ball may sling shot back out, requiring our players to sprint back into defence, they slow down to allow our players to get back and either;

1. Take a contested mark
2. Kick a crumbing goal from the marking contest, or
3. Create a stoppage (or several) in the F50

You're right in that it exacerbates our poor kicking - it typically puts players under more pressure when having a shot in open play or puts them at sharp angles for set shots.

IF the game style change is due to fatigue and protecting players during the 'second act' of the season, the FD knows they risk losing games because it highlights the lists deficiencies. But they likely see that as acceptable in order to protect players from burnout and injury that an end-to-end game might cause at this time of the year. 

We will know in about 4-6 weeks whether the game plan change we've seen for the past 6 rounds was a short-term change to accommodate the challenges of the middle part of the season, or if the FD lost it's nerve and reverted to a 'safe' style. 

We're 2-4 since the Port game, having lost by 4, 7, 15, and 2, and beaten the league leaders during that time. If the players are playing poorly, and/or the game style is terrible - it won't take much for us to turn games into wins, given how close we've been despite how terrible it may seem. 

 

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[binman 39,070]

3 hours ago, ANG13 said:

Is he really an elite kick?

According to Wheelo’s ratings Hunter’s kicking efficiency this year is 56.4%, Langdon’s is 62.9%. 

Fair question. 

He has the green light to tale on risky kicks, which might explain those numbers a bit.

I rate him as elite kick, but perhaps you're right and I'm over rating his kicking skills.

[The Jackson FIX 2,296]

8 hours ago, binman said:

Basically, with the advent of tbe sophisticated defensive zoens, every team is the same forward line game plan, including the pies.

The exception is the cats and the lions, who both try to engineer as much space as possible to give Hawkins, daniher, hipwood and Cameron opportunities to be one out. But even doing so, as soon as the ball is stopped zones get back and it becomes all but impossible to find space ot take contested marks.

The only way to create space now in footy, is win the ball from centre clearances whilst the 6 6 6 is still in force (which was brought in for exactly this reason - create space and one on ones in the forward line by stopping teams flooding their defensive zone) OR go fast on transition so teams can't get their defensive zones set.

The latter is basically the pies game plan, and how we played preseason and rounds 1-6.

I know this sounds a little fey, but i really wish dees fans had more faith in goody. He has well and earned that with our team's first flag in 57 years. If that holds no water because it is history, then I don't want to hear about the program not working last year.

We won't flick a switch as such, more slowly open the valve. And if they have got their fitness program right, we will soon (rounds 19 or 20?) be back to our offensive, fast transition best.

Stay the course people. Have some faith. 

It's all about winning the war, not the battles

  

Very much enjoy your analysis, probably because it is actually grounded in sensible data points (take note AFL media).
 

Faith somewhat in tact, our inability to correct course last year is the niggling factor in the back of my mind

[Oakridge Demons 27]

10 hours ago, binman said:

The thing is with the kicking skills isse, there is no easy fix, and they certainly won't solve themselves naturally (which is not to say we can't try something up forward - but really rhey are pretty limited what they can do. They have after all tried petty and brought Smith)

Goody has built a game style that this list of players  can win flags with.

What's the point of us, say adopting the pies model if we don't have enough players who can reliably hit high risk kicks that model demands.

We went all in on contested ball winners in tracc, oliver, Gus and viney - none of whom who are elite kicks. 

We had Max, a generalation ruck - but just a passable kick, albeit he has really improved his kicking over the journey.

Only two elite kicks, in Watts and Salem, though Wattsy not tough enough, or committed I'm guessing, for goody, so he's soon out. 

And in Salem, we essentialy took him and Hunt, instead of Kelly, who is exactly the sort of plsyer we now need. 

Max, tracc, viney, oliver, gus and salo. Some A grade stars. Contested ball beasts. Bulls. Not much silk.

But, with the exception of salo, often unreliable by foot and only salo an elite kick at the Pendulbury, Sidebottom level. 

That's the foundation goody inherited.

To that he added key the structural players in May, Lever and Langdon he needed to build a premiership team.

But again, all three are ok kicks, but certainly not elite.

In May's case he is elite sometimes- but turns it over way too often in the 20-30 metre range, often under no pressure.

It will take time to bring in some really skilled players to support Max, trac et al - all of whom are locked in on long contracts. 

Taylor has been working on it though. JVR is a terrific kick, nice simple technique, Mcvee is a great in, Laurie is waiting, Howe looks like he has neat skills, and I really like Sestan's kicking - has the knack of balancing up a touch before hitting it.

And Hunter was a good pick up - adding an elite kick straight in to the 22. 

When the weather improves and we get closer to finals, we will increase tge speed of ball movement and transition.

And all things being g equal we look like we did rounds 1-6. More space, more free players ahead of the ball, more movement by hand, riskier corridor kicks leading to better angles  leading lanes openingup etc etc- all of which mitigates the kicking skills issue.

Frustrating, but we're close to playing that sort of ballistic, fast game that everyone loves. Let's just hope it doesn't rain again this year. 

It's also worth remembering that the method goody has built is based on that of the tigers - who also had a pretty average list in terms of kicking skills.

The tigers also built a model to take advantage of the strengths of their list  - and won three flags.

All great points !!

Tigers had 2 great key forwards, not sure we have any !!! (Van rooyen in couple of years)

And Not sure a system that relies on no rain can work in Victoria !!!

[monoccular 16,380]

10 hours ago, binman said:

Basically, with the advent of tbe sophisticated defensive zoens, every team is the same forward line game plan, including the pies.

The exception is the cats and the lions, who both try to engineer as much space as possible to give Hawkins, daniher, hipwood and Cameron opportunities to be one out. But even doing so, as soon as the ball is stopped zones get back and it becomes all but impossible to find space ot take contested marks.

The only way to create space now in footy, is win the ball from centre clearances whilst the 6 6 6 is still in force (which was brought in for exactly this reason - create space and one on ones in the forward line by stopping teams flooding their defensive zone) OR go fast on transition so teams can't get their defensive zones set.

The latter is basically the pies game plan, and how we played preseason and rounds 1-6.

I know this sounds a little fey, but i really wish dees fans had more faith in goody. He has well and earned that with our team's first flag in 57 years. If that holds no water because it is history, then I don't want to hear about the program not working last year.

We won't flick a switch as such, more slowly open the valve. And if they have got their fitness program right, we will soon (rounds 19 or 20?) be back to our offensive, fast transition best.

Stay the course people. Have some faith. 

It's all about winning the war, not the battles

  

binman - sincere thanks for these two posts offering hope  (with or without sanity) to us afflicted with severe chronic and recurring attacks of  MFCSS. 
Your references to quick forward thrusts utilising 666 reminds me of the closing moments of a somewhat important 3rd quarter in a big game in Perth  a couple of years ago - let’s hope that the  guys can resurrect that for us to see live at the G. 

[layzie 29,620]

18 hours ago, binman said:

Fair question. 

He has the green light to tale on risky kicks, which might explain those numbers a bit.

I rate him as elite kick, but perhaps you're right and I'm over rating his kicking skills.

Definitely an above average kick at very least.