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Prelim Final Statistical Indicator

Demon17
in Melbourne Demons

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I have been searching for a sign in the histroy books on Prelim finals stats and a possible trend.

Contrary to what Gerard Whately said on SEN this morning about the past few years when the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the results from Qualifying Finalks then the perfomance of those winners in the subsequent Prelim show no material trend.

But, given no Pre finals bye this year, rendering recent history meaningless, I thought it prudent to look at the 6 years prior to the bye.  2010 to 2015. Yes I know there are many variables . Someone else can model those.

But, in the 12 qualifying finals in this period the results are in the Dees and Port's favour -big time.

11 times the QF winner won their PF 2 weeks later . (only one QF loser made it to the GF in those 6 years - the mighty hawks in 2015 (going on to win the GF)

Of those 11 winners, 7 were blow out wins, and 4 were close  (less than 2 goals - but wins nevertheless.)

 

Another way to look at it, only once in 6 years (or 12 PF's) did a QF loser get back to the PF via a semi and win. Clarksons Threepeat team.

We ain't facing that standard team this week. Nor the master coach.

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    1 minute ago, Demon17 said:

    I have been searching for a sign in the histroy books on Prelim finals stats and a possible trend.

    Contrary to what Gerard Whately said on SEN this morning about the past few years when the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the results from Qualifying Finalks then the perfomance of those winners in the subsequent Prelim show no material trend.

    But, given no Pre finals bye this year, rendering recent history meaningless, I thought it prudent to look at the 6 years prior to the bye.  2010 to 2015. Yes I know there are many variables . Someone else can model those.

    But, in the 12 qualifying finals in this period the results are in the Dees and Port's favour -big time.

    11 times the QF winner won their PF 2 weeks later . (only one QF loser made it to the GF in those 6 years - the mighty hawks in 2015 (going on to win the GF)

    Of those 11 winners, 7 were blow out wins, and 4 were close  (less than 2 goals - but wins nevertheless.)

     

    Another way to look at it, only once in 6 years (or 12 PF's) did a QF loser get back to the PF via a semi and win. Clarksons Threepeat team.

    We ain't facing that standard team this week. Nor the master coach.

    And for fun I just looked at the previous 2 years, 2009, 2008.

    Same result.

    All big PF wins for the earlier QF winners 

    So that makes 8 years and 14 out of 15.

    I rest my case.

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    And we are facing a team that only 2 weeks ago while playing for the minor premiership at their home ground gave up a 44 point lead in the 3rd quarter. 

    King, Barrett et al can say what they want, but if I was a cat there isn’t a lead under 50 points that I wouldn’t be nervous about. 

    Aside from Hawkin’s elbows and Selwood’s free kicks,  I am feeling good about Friday. 

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    •  

    Just posted in another thread that without the pre-finals bye, from 2000-2015 only four sides lost the QF but then won the prelim (i.e. a 28-4 record).

    They were two threepeat sides (Brisbane in 2003 and Hawthorn in 2015), and then Sydney and West Coast in 2005 and 2006 respectively, after beating each other in close QFs.

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    Based purely on the data in the opening post, I'm confident the AFL will bring back the pre-finals bye next year to create more tension in the finals series. If the Qualifying Finals' winners overwhelmingly keep winning Preliminary Finals, there's not a lot of point in having the semi-final contests.  

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    2 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

    Based purely on the data in the opening post, I'm confident the AFL will bring back the pre-finals bye next year to create more tension in the finals series. If the Qualifying Finals' winners overwhelmingly keep winning Preliminary Finals, there's not a lot of point in having the semi-final contests.  

    I personally think they need to scrap the bye all together.

    Survival of the absolute fittest.

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    We can certainly win this game but cross the line with anything less than 100% from the first to last bounce and our season will be over

    There is not much between these teams and our record in games where we start favorite is embarrassing - time for that to all change

    This team has the best chance to win a premiership in 50+ years - it is not easy to get to this position and far easier to let the opportunity slip by

    I'm hoping that every player understands this fact and the coaching group have them 100% focused  

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    5 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

    I personally think they need to scrap the bye all together.

    Survival of the absolute fittest.

    Completely agree.

    I also believe the bye destroys the end-of-season momentum for footy fans. Particularly those whose teams haven't made the eight. By the time of the first final, many of those supporters have completely lost interest in what happens.

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