Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.
Demonland

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Prelim Final Statistical Indicator

Demon17
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

Posted

I have been searching for a sign in the histroy books on Prelim finals stats and a possible trend.

Contrary to what Gerard Whately said on SEN this morning about the past few years when the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the results from Qualifying Finalks then the perfomance of those winners in the subsequent Prelim show no material trend.

But, given no Pre finals bye this year, rendering recent history meaningless, I thought it prudent to look at the 6 years prior to the bye.  2010 to 2015. Yes I know there are many variables . Someone else can model those.

But, in the 12 qualifying finals in this period the results are in the Dees and Port's favour -big time.

11 times the QF winner won their PF 2 weeks later . (only one QF loser made it to the GF in those 6 years - the mighty hawks in 2015 (going on to win the GF)

Of those 11 winners, 7 were blow out wins, and 4 were close  (less than 2 goals - but wins nevertheless.)

 

Another way to look at it, only once in 6 years (or 12 PF's) did a QF loser get back to the PF via a semi and win. Clarksons Threepeat team.

We ain't facing that standard team this week. Nor the master coach.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
     
    • Author
    1 minute ago, Demon17 said:

    I have been searching for a sign in the histroy books on Prelim finals stats and a possible trend.

    Contrary to what Gerard Whately said on SEN this morning about the past few years when the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the results from Qualifying Finalks then the perfomance of those winners in the subsequent Prelim show no material trend.

    But, given no Pre finals bye this year, rendering recent history meaningless, I thought it prudent to look at the 6 years prior to the bye.  2010 to 2015. Yes I know there are many variables . Someone else can model those.

    But, in the 12 qualifying finals in this period the results are in the Dees and Port's favour -big time.

    11 times the QF winner won their PF 2 weeks later . (only one QF loser made it to the GF in those 6 years - the mighty hawks in 2015 (going on to win the GF)

    Of those 11 winners, 7 were blow out wins, and 4 were close  (less than 2 goals - but wins nevertheless.)

     

    Another way to look at it, only once in 6 years (or 12 PF's) did a QF loser get back to the PF via a semi and win. Clarksons Threepeat team.

    We ain't facing that standard team this week. Nor the master coach.

    And for fun I just looked at the previous 2 years, 2009, 2008.

    Same result.

    All big PF wins for the earlier QF winners 

    So that makes 8 years and 14 out of 15.

    I rest my case.

  • Quote

    And we are facing a team that only 2 weeks ago while playing for the minor premiership at their home ground gave up a 44 point lead in the 3rd quarter. 

    King, Barrett et al can say what they want, but if I was a cat there isn’t a lead under 50 points that I wouldn’t be nervous about. 

    Aside from Hawkin’s elbows and Selwood’s free kicks,  I am feeling good about Friday. 

  • Quote
    •  

    Just posted in another thread that without the pre-finals bye, from 2000-2015 only four sides lost the QF but then won the prelim (i.e. a 28-4 record).

    They were two threepeat sides (Brisbane in 2003 and Hawthorn in 2015), and then Sydney and West Coast in 2005 and 2006 respectively, after beating each other in close QFs.

  • Quote

    Based purely on the data in the opening post, I'm confident the AFL will bring back the pre-finals bye next year to create more tension in the finals series. If the Qualifying Finals' winners overwhelmingly keep winning Preliminary Finals, there's not a lot of point in having the semi-final contests.  

  • Quote

    2 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

    Based purely on the data in the opening post, I'm confident the AFL will bring back the pre-finals bye next year to create more tension in the finals series. If the Qualifying Finals' winners overwhelmingly keep winning Preliminary Finals, there's not a lot of point in having the semi-final contests.  

    I personally think they need to scrap the bye all together.

    Survival of the absolute fittest.

  • Quote
    • Like 3

    We can certainly win this game but cross the line with anything less than 100% from the first to last bounce and our season will be over

    There is not much between these teams and our record in games where we start favorite is embarrassing - time for that to all change

    This team has the best chance to win a premiership in 50+ years - it is not easy to get to this position and far easier to let the opportunity slip by

    I'm hoping that every player understands this fact and the coaching group have them 100% focused  

  • Quote
    5 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

    I personally think they need to scrap the bye all together.

    Survival of the absolute fittest.

    Completely agree.

    I also believe the bye destroys the end-of-season momentum for footy fans. Particularly those whose teams haven't made the eight. By the time of the first final, many of those supporters have completely lost interest in what happens.

  • Quote
    •  

    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • AFLW REPORT: Port Adelaide

      Well, that was a shock. The Demons 4-game unbeaten run came to a grinding halt in a tense, scrappy affair at the sunny, windy Alberton Oval, with the Power holding on for a 2-point win. The Dees had their chances—plenty of them—but couldn't convert when it mattered most. Port’s tackling pressure rattled the Dees, triggering a fumble frenzy and surprising lack of composure from seasoned players.

      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • Welcome to Demonland: Steven King

      The Melbourne Football Club has selected a new coach for the 2026 season appointing Geelong Football Club assistant coach Steven King to the head role.

        • Sad
        • Shocked
        • Like
      • 788 replies
      Demonland

    • AFLW PREVIEW: Port Adelaide

      The undefeated Demons venture across the continent to the spiritual home of the Port Adelaide Football Club on Saturday afternoon for the inaugural match for premiership points between these long-historied clubs. Alberton Oval will however, be a ground familiar to our players following a practice match there last year. We lost both the game and Liv Purcell, who missed 7 home and away matches after suffering facial fractures in the dying moments of the game.

      • 1 reply
      Demonland

    • AFLW REPORT: Richmond

      A glorious sunny afternoon with a typically strong Casey Fields breeze favouring the city end greeted this round four clash of the undefeated Narrm against the winless Tigers. Pre-match, the teams entered the ground through the Deearmy’s inclusive banner—"Narrm Football Weaving Communities Together and then Warumungu/Yawuru woman and Fox Boundary Rider, Megan Waters, gave the official acknowledgement of country. Any concerns that Collingwood’s strategy of last week to discombobulate the Dees would be replicated by Ryan Ferguson and his Tigers evaporated in the second quarter when Richmond failed to use the wind advantage and Narrm scored three unanswered goals. 

      • 4 replies
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Frankston

      The late-season run of Casey wins was broken in their first semifinal against Frankston in a heartbreaking end at Kinetic Stadium on Saturday night that in many respects reflected their entire season. When they were bad, they committed all of the football transgressions, including poor disposal, indiscipline, an inability to exert pressure, and some terrible decision-making, as exemplified by the period in the game when they conceded nine unanswered goals from early in the second quarter until halfway through the third term. You rarely win when you do this.

      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • AFLW PREVIEW: Richmond

      Round four kicks off early Saturday afternoon at Casey Fields, as the mighty Narrm host the winless Richmond Tigers in the second week of Indigenous Round celebrations. With ideal footy conditions forecast—20 degrees, overcast skies, and a gentle breeze — expect a fast-paced contest. Narrm enters with momentum and a dangerous forward line, while Richmond is still searching for its first win. With key injuries on both sides and pride on the line, this clash promises plenty.

      • 3 replies
      Demonland
    View All

    Configure browser push notifications
    Chrome (Android)
    1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
    2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
    3. Adjust your preference.
    Chrome (Desktop)
    1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
    2. Select Site settings.
    3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.