A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 hours ago, Demon77 said:

Untried in the wet Wadda. The weather is predicting sun for Fri and Sat up there.

I'll have some more info soon hopefully. I agree with you, best to get in early with the current odds.

Edit: Santos did win a trial on a slow5 back in Jan. Mate says there's no rain up there.

Ok good then, sorry i thought there was some mention of rain, but thats probably in Melbourne.

Winx, Alizee and Dixie Blossoms the first 3 legs of the quad at Randwick...? Field in the last??

....and weve hit 30 pages...well done.

 

Edited March 1, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,903]

10 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thats all pretty good then D77. As i said im worried they will smash him into 1.50 with that field, then it wont be any value at all and in fact on a hiding to nothing. They are 2yo after all. Perhaps we can get on early like say tomorrow night, if most of the BBs are in. I would say he will come in to at least 1.80.

Any wet track form? Lets wait for the late mail then.

My other pick would be Cliffs Edge in the Guineas race, but there are some good sorts in there as well.

Cliff's Edge meets Grunt 3.5 kgs better from their last encounter Wadda (over 1400m) and the Guineas is over 1600m.  That should be enough to turn things around. 

Here's a replay of 'Care to Think' winning the MM Gold Coast Cup (1400m)  ... it ran a sizzling time (1:20.72) and had to work hard from the wide barrier.  Care to Think is 2.40 favourite in the 5th race at Randwick on Sat (The Liverpool City Cup)

 

12 hours ago, Demon77 said:

I wasn't going to make Santos my best Wadda, not saying he can't win. If someone else wants to declare him, all good. I think he can win, I'm just waiting for the "word" from Sydney.

I have a feeling the $2.10 will get a beating due to his last run.

Alizee stands out to me at the moment but also short at $2.15. I'll probably wait until Saturday morning for scratchings/state of track.

Edit: Santos had a cracking trial/gallop last Saturday so he's as ready as ever. If he repeats his last run he will be extremely hard to toss.

Those 2 you mentioned really do stand out D77 (especially Santos)

I'm also not sure Winx will have it all her own way first up ... but the only danger is 'Prized Icon' - here's it's last run in The Apollo Stakes on Feb 17 

They ran a fairly quick time and Prized Icon was finishing strong.  I still believe that Winx wins but she get may challenged for a bit.

Edited March 1, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,903]

Best Bet ...

In the end I decided on 'Care to Think' in the Liverpool City Cup (Race 5 No.3 Randwick Saturday)  I just believe it will have too much class for its rivals in this race. 

I do like Dixie Blossoms in race 8 but I believe 'Care to Think' is a horse on the rise and is therefore a safer best bet.  Currently showing 2.40. 

 

Edited March 1, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

Best Bet ...

In the end I decided on 'Care to Think' in the Liverpool City Cup (Race 5 No.3 Randwick Saturday)  I just believe it will have too much class for its rivals in this race. 

I do like Dixie Blossoms in race 8 but I believe 'Care to Think' is a horse on the rise and is therefore a safer best bet.  Currently showing 2.40. 

 

Ok its good to see the bets coming in so we can get on early if we wish, as i think just about all of these may come in.

Care to Think 2.40

Santos 2.10

Alizee 2.25

gives us 11.34.

Edit:::Opps i just re read the thread and D77 is going to wait until Sat, sorry im jumping the gun a bit.....(long day at work).....still its not a bad multi so what the heck!

Edited March 1, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

9 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok its good to see the bets coming in so we can get on early if we wish, as i think just about all of these may come in.

Care to Think 2.40

Santos 2.10

Alizee 2.25

gives us 11.34.

Edit:::Opps i just re read the thread and D77 is going to wait until Sat, sorry im jumping the gun a bit.....(long day at work).....still it's not a bad multi so what the heck!

Done deal Wadda. That one will go on regardless of additional selections. Now that it's been posted we don't want to feel the dreaded "PL".

Edited March 1, 2018 by Demon77

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

Done deal Wadda. That one will go on regardless of additional selections. Now that it's been posted we don't want to feel the dreaded "PL".

Oh crap ive jinxed it now! Yep your right D77, better put it on regardless. Should be a good weekends racing and no footy distractions, well Melbourne ones anyway.

Edited March 1, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

26 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Oh crap ive jinxed it now! Yep your right D77, better put it on regardless. Should be a good weekends racing and no footy distractions, well Melbourne ones anyway.

Lol Wadda, it was certainly hard work at the pub last Saturday. The left eye was focused on the racing, right eye on the footy and fingers were in charge of Demonland. 

Looking forward to tomorrow. We'll see if Santos is a serious player heading into the Golden Slipper.

[Macca 16,903]

I like the 3 bets bets (so far) ... they are all short odds but just as it is with the footy club,  it's all about the winning.  $11 (combined) represents excellent value

We've got a bit to work with in regards to a few other horses we might fancy as welI.

I also don't mind Nomithaj (Race 1 Flem) & Tshahitsi (Race 6 Flem) and also, the aforementioned Dixie Blossoms & Cliff's Edge.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

I like the 3 bets bets (so far) ... they are all short odds but just as it is with the footy club,  it's all about the winning.  $11 (combined) represents excellent value

We've got a bit to work with in regards to a few other horses we might fancy as welI.

I also don't mind Nomithaj (Race 1 Flem) & Tshahitsi (Race 6 Flem) and also, the aforementioned Dixie Blossoms & Cliff's Edge.

Yes its a good point Macca, there is our best bets and there is always few other good ones that always deserve a mention.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Flemington Race 8 Fell Swoop is one that is dropping back from group level. Had 3 group runs in the spring, including The Everest and on his best form would brain these. Goes alright 1st up paying 4.20.....not baaaad....

Edited March 2, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,903]

2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Flemington Race 8 Fell Swoop is one that is dropping back from group level. Had 3 group runs in the spring, including The Everest and on his best form would brain these. Goes alright 1st up paying 4.20.....not baaaad....

Good pick up Wadda ... in fact,  the horse (Fell Swoop) has run at Group 1 or Group 2 level in its last 16 starts (if we include The Everest as a Group 1 Race)  12 of those 16 starts have been at Group 1 level.  The horse has had no respite from top company (until tomorrow) 

The only horse that (somewhat) rivals Fell Swoop for Group appearances is the 2 (Secret Agenda) but it hasn't raced in 41 weeks. 

I'm going to take a trifecta in the race as I reckon it might pay well for the right combo.   My mate who follows Ellerton likes Crystal Dreamer so I'll include that in my top 3.  Weir has 2 of the other runners as well

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

28 minutes ago, Macca said:

Good pick up Wadda ... in fact,  the horse (Fell Swoop) has run at Group 1 or Group 2 level in its last 16 starts (if we include The Everest as a Group 1 Race)  12 of those 16 starts have been at Group 1 level.  The horse has had no respite from top company (until tomorrow) 

The only horse that (somewhat) rivals Fell Swoop for Group appearances is the 2 (Secret Agenda) but it hasn't raced in 41 weeks. 

I'm going to take a trifecta in the race as I reckon it might pay well for the right combo.   My mate who follows Ellerton likes Crystal Dreamer so I'll include that in my top 3.  Weir has 2 of the other runners as well

Crystal Dreamer always gives a good run.

[Macca 16,903]

13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Crystal Dreamer always gives a good run.

It does ... the winner should come from the top 3 which suits my 3 - 5 - 5 Trifecta system (when it works!)  Throw in the 2 Weir horses for 2nd & 3rd and there you have it. 

I haven't really looked closely at the Flemington card but I've got a mate who gets the odd tip or 2 ... he's been given 'Hear the Chant' (Race 3 No.2) &  'Seattle Park' (Race 5 No.11)  Might be worth a $3 three leg multi (coupled with one of our best bets)

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

I'm making Alizee my "Best".

Will nominate a couple of roughies after further studying.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Demon77

[Macca 16,903]

7 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

I'm making Alizee my "Best".

Will nominate a couple of roughies after further studying.

Good choice D77 ... Alizee won well at its last start and the extra distance suits - she won at Group 1 level in the Spring over 1600m & also won at Group 2 level over this distance (1400m) in the same time period.  Primed for this one. 

My choice (Care to Think) has drifted in the betting (out to 2.90) but its opening price was very skinny,  all the same.  Her finishing speed in the last 200 is eye-catching. 

Out of the 3 best bets I like Santos as the best of the best! 

As always,  it will be interesting to see which horse @binman comes up with to complete the quartet. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

I'm making Alizee my "Best".

Will nominate a couple of roughies after further studying.

See d77 I know your pick b4 you do~!

Now that'steamwork !

 I put it on and got 12s.....so that's pretty good. ?

[binman 42,606]

G'day punters. Had to get a train from Bairnsdale today so had plenty of time to do my form very thoroughly. I'm reasonably confident for the first half of the day but things get harder as the day goes on, particularity at Flemington. That said not as hard as the last 3 weeks.  I thinks there are some good bets, some horses that are too short and because of that some value. I'm going to add another category - lay of the day. 

Best bet: Aloft 

Best value: Frolic

Bets long shot (each way): Flemington Race 5  no  14 La Belle Jude

Lay of the day: can't split Santos and Alizee

Good punting

[Macca 16,903]

Ok ... we're all set!  Here are the 4 best bets ...

Flem  Race 2  No.2  Aloft (2.50)

Rand  Race 3  No.2  Santos (2.10)

Rand  Race 5  No.3  Care to Think (2.90)

Rand  Race 7  No.2  Alizee (2.35)

 

Combined odds 35-1 (the 4 trebles are paying from $12 up to $17)

Good luck to all !

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Best Value: Flemington Race 7

No.4 Levendi $18.00W $5.20P

No.16 Bring Me Roses $18.00 $5.20P

Both horses ran well first up and although it's a very tricky race the odds are appealing. I looked outside the fancied runners and the above offer terrific value. They both seem to like the track.

Good luck all!

Edited March 2, 2018 by Demon77

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

9 hours ago, Macca said:

Ok ... we're all set!  Here are the 4 best bets ...

Flem  Race 2  No.2  Aloft (2.50)

Rand  Race 3  No.2  Santos (2.10)

Rand  Race 5  No.3  Care to Think (2.90)

Rand  Race 7  No.2  Alizee (2.35)

 

Combined odds 35-1 (the 4 trebles are paying from $12 up to $17)

Good luck to all !

Good one. I like Aloft, think it might be the certainty of the day actually. Good luck you lot.

Edit: I think i might make Main Stage R7 and Fell Swoop R8 at Flemington my best value place bets.

Edited March 3, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,903]

Aloft did it easily ... that's 1 from 1 !

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

Aloft did it easily ... that's 1 from 1 !

Gee it drifted in the betting i got on at 2.50 20 mins later it was 3.50 !

Santos comes into 1.70

Edited March 3, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Heart in mouth.....2 from 2

[Macca 16,903]

Not so easy that time but we're now 2 from 2 !

The jockey only pushed Santos late in a slowly run race.  There's some improvement to come with the horse.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Just now, Macca said:

Not so easy that time but we're now 2 from 2 !

The jockey only pushed Santos late in a slowly run race.  There's some improvement to come with the horse.

Post race jockey said it is pretty average at getting out of the gates, but is improving. A better start sees him win well. Good chance in the Slipper. should be around 8/1