A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,972]

Trapeze Artist to race on!  And the owner has insured the horse for $50Million.

The horse will race on for 12 months and then be retired to stud.  So it's next Spring,  Hong Kong in December,  the Autumn and then Royal Ascot and then that's it. 

Maybe 10 -12 Group 1 races in all but it might only be 8 or 9. 

[Macca 16,972]

After having an early look at the Saturday fields there's a few trifecta races that might take the fancy - I'm easy on what the preference is because my main aim is going to be the 3 Group 1 races at Sha Tin on Sunday.  Anyway,  here are the 5 races I picked out but there might be a few others that suit

I've marked the Doomben race as my 3rd preference as there are only the 8 runners and therefore the value may not be there. 

Hawkesbury  Race 7  Hawkesbury Cup

Morphettville  Race 6  City of Adelaide Hcp

Doomben  Race 8  Victory Stakes

Hawkesbury  Race 5  Hawkesbury Rush

Hawkesbury  Race 6  Godolphin Crown

 

Best Bet Strike Rate

44: 20 - 9 - 2

Trifecta Strike Rate

1: 1 - 0  (+$102.50)

Australian Group and Listed Races

 

[Macca 16,972]

I'm reckoning Hawkesbury  Race 7  The Hawkesbury Cup might be a good choice for our trifecta race ... it's a good betting race with a lot of familiar horses albeit Group 3 standard performers.   Could be a decent dividend for the right combination. 

Let me know what you think @Dee Zephyr @Wadda We Sing

 

 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

21 minutes ago, Macca said:

I'm reckoning Hawkesbury  Race 7  The Hawkesbury Cup might be a good choice for our trifecta race ... it's a good betting race with a lot of familiar horses albeit Group 3 standard performers.   Could be a decent dividend for the right combination. 

Let me know what you think @Dee Zephyr @Wadda We Sing

 

 

G’day Macca.

All the races you listed at Hawkesbury have horses with high ratings, which is a guide i usually like to go by, but I feel the size of the field in the Hawkesbury Cup makes that particular race appealing for our trifecta special. As usual, happy with the majority of course.

Dan Zephyr is back again. Caulfield R8 No.9.

Over the 1400m this time. So this prep has gone 1200m - 1000m - 1400m. ? My mate has been busy lately, I would really like to hear his thoughts on this.

[Macca 16,972]

16 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

G’day Macca.

All the races you listed at Hawkesbury have horses with high ratings, which is a guide i usually like to go by, but I feel the size of the field in the Hawkesbury Cup makes that particular race appealing for our trifecta special. As usual, happy with the majority of course.

Dan Zephyr is back again. Caulfield R8 No.9.

Over the 1400m this time. So this prep has gone 1200m - 1000m - 1400m. ? My mate has been busy lately, I would really like to hear his thoughts on this.

It's a tricky race but 4 sets of eyes makes the process of finding the right combination easier ... there are only 1 or 2 horses that probably won't feature in the finish out of the 11 runners and whilst the favourite has real claims,  there's more than a few that can win the race. 

It's a good betting race DZ and our choices might come down to current form vs previous form at Group level.  A decent dividend beckons. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

G’day Macca.

All the races you listed at Hawkesbury have horses with high ratings, which is a guide i usually like to go by, but I feel the size of the field in the Hawkesbury Cup makes that particular race appealing for our trifecta special. As usual, happy with the majority of course.

Dan Zephyr is back again. Caulfield R8 No.9.

Over the 1400m this time. So this prep has gone 1200m - 1000m - 1400m. ? My mate has been busy lately, I would really like to hear his thoughts on this.

I would like to know what the trainer is having on his Weetbix, and can i get some....

[binman 42,986]

Going to 1400 from 1000 is better than going back in distance.

I usually draw a line thoufh horses going back in sistance, though if they are sprinters 1200 back to 1100 (or at worst back to 1100) or 1100 back to 1000 can be ok if they are simply better at the 1000.

DZ is not a spinter though is it?

Il do the form for the Hawksbury cup.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

7 minutes ago, binman said:

Going to 1400 from 1000 is better than going back in distance.

I usually draw a line thoufh horses going back in sistance, though if they are sprinters 1200 back to 1100 (or at worst back to 1100) or 1100 back to 1000 can be ok if they are simply better at the 1000.

DZ is not a spinter though is it?

Il do the form for the Hawksbury cup.

The best distance for Dan has been at the 1400m. The case could be that tomorrow’s race was always in the plans.

He was scratched a fortnight ago or so on the day and the reason for running him last week over the 1000m after his first up run of 1200m could simply be they just wanted to give the horse a “run”. That’s my unqualified opinion on it anyway. 

[Macca 16,972]

@Wadda We Sing

 Do you want to kick things off again re the trifecta?

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

26 minutes ago, Macca said:

@Wadda We Sing

 Do you want to kick things off again re the trifecta?

Sure Macca, assuming you mean the Hawksbury Cup? I have to say I like Equador. Won 10 times at the track, is a High Chapparal and trained by Gai. She just hates a Cup.

Dont really know much about the rest of them? Throw the Waller runner McCreery in somewhere for a place, although its up 5.5kg in weight.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

33 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Sure Macca, assuming you mean the Hawksbury Cup? I have to say I like Equador. Won 10 times at the track, is a High Chapparal and trained by Gai. She just hates a Cup.

Dont really know much about the rest of them? Throw the Waller runner McCreery in somewhere for a place, although its up 5.5kg in weight.

The Group 1's are back on next week so the Hawkesbury Cup will have to do Wadda

My tip is Mister Sea Wolf to win ... so its that and Equador so far

3 hours ago, binman said:

I'll do the form for the Hawksbury cup.

Over to you BM

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

17 minutes ago, Macca said:

The Group 1's are back on next week so the Hawkesbury Cup will have to do Wadda

My tip is Mister Sea Wolf to win ... so its that and Equador so far

Over to you BM

Actually i meant Mr Sea Wolf was carrying an extra 5.5kg from its last run, not McCreery.......good pick tho, has to go in..

Edited April 27, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

20 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Actually i meant Mr Sea Wolf was carrying an extra 5.5kg from its last run, not McCreery.......good pick tho, has to go in..

Before that last race it was carrying weight and racing quite well.

Its last run was in the Doncaster hcp where a lot of good horses got in at low weights

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

43 minutes ago, Macca said:

Before that last race it was carrying weight and racing quite well.

Its last run was in the Doncaster hcp where a lot of good horses got in at low weights

Ran well in that race too...

[Macca 16,972]

42 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ran well in that race too...

You've got to laugh at some of the comments made about a horses chances. 

They will quite often talk up a horses chances and then finish off with "Not in this"

Or talk down a horses chances and then end with "Should win"

The weight comments are often only referring to 1kg or disingenuous ones where there is an obvious anomoly.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Since the racing has slowed down a little, im going to throw my sport multi in that i take every week. I like going for home teams and lower margins in more even games. Ive done ok with them over the years, but lately its been a bit hard, with a few upsets around the place. I generally just take AFL & NRL but occasionally throw in some others. I also try and keep it to a max of 6 legs.

So FWIW:

Melbourne 1-39 $2.40 (I think we have too much to play for to lose, dry track as well, but will be close)

Western Bulldogs 1-39 $2.06 (well youd think!!..... bullies will get the job done)

Geelong Cats 1-39 $2.08 (Danger game, but tipping Geelong at home)

Richmond H2H $1.50  (should account for Collingwood)

Hawthorn H2H $1.42 (StKilda are terrible, could be a big win for the Hawks)

Penrith H2H $1.52   (to get up at home over Canterbury)

Manley H2H $1.52  (You would think will beat Newcastle)

61.03 (enhanced) for $7.00 = $427.18

Edited April 27, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Since the racing has slowed down a little, im going to throw my sport multi in that i take every week. I like going for home teams and lower margins in more even games. Ive done ok with them over the years, but lately its been a bit hard, with a few upsets around the place. I generally just take AFL & NRL but occasionally throw in some others. I also try and keep it to a max of 6 legs.

So FWIW:

Melbourne 1-39 $2.40 (I think we have too much to play for to lose, dry track as well, but will be close)

Western Bulldogs 1-39 $2.06 (well youd think!!..... bullies will get the job done)

Geelong Cats 1-39 $2.08 (Danger game, but tipping Geelong at home)

Richmond H2H $1.50  (should account for Collingwood)

Hawthorn H2H $1.42 (StKilda are terrible, could be a big win for the Hawks)

Penrith H2H $1.52   (to get up at home over Canterbury)

Manley H2H $1.52  (You would think will beat Newcastle)

61.03 (enhanced) for $7.00 = $427.18

I'm putting together a 4 pick multi on weekends where myself and 3 mates have 1 pick each.  Similar to what we do here with our best bets.

No luck first time up last weekend but they're all keen to continue it on ... we all specialise in different sports ... I'm Super Rugby, one is NRL,  one is American sports and the other is AFL or golf (of all things!)

It's based on all participants having one good thing every weekend and then working as a team.

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

17 minutes ago, Macca said:

I'm putting together a 4 pick multi on weekends where myself and 3 mates have 1 pick each.  Similar to what we do here with our best bets.

No luck first time up last weekend but they're all keen to continue it on ... we all specialise in different sports ... I'm Super Rugby, one is NRL,  one is American sports and the other is AFL or golf (of all things!)

It's based on all participants having one good thing every weekend and then working as a team.

 

That sounds really good. Feel free to post your super rugby leg here..haha...Golf? Golf is the most unpredictable sport ive ever come across, beyond me. But the odds are very good if you get a winner, usually 6s or more.

In fact feel free to post the multi here~ haha, with your mates permission of course.

Multis are good fun.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

34 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

That sounds really good. Feel free to post your super rugby leg here..haha...Golf? Golf is the most unpredictable sport ive ever come across, beyond me. But the odds are very good if you get a winner, usually 6s or more.

In fact feel free to post the multi here~ haha, with your mates permission of course.

Multis are good fun.

I've got no issue posting the 4pick up Wadda and my mates are welcome to tell their mates as well.  

The mate who does NRL also sometimes does AFL or Soccer.  The American sports mate really knows his stuff (across the 4 big sports)

With the golf mate it's a top 5 position only (not the winner)  His theory is that a number of the better golfers will rally late.  I don't follow golf closely so I defer to his knowledge. 

I reckon 4 picks is enough in a multi especially if there is individual value in each pick ($3+)

If I get a chance I'll post up the 4 picks sometime after they all come in. 

I do a 1-12 or 13+ margin pick with Super Rugby as I rarely miss with the actual winner ... I also look for a bit of value.  No risk,  no reward.  After Super Rugby I concentrate on the Internationals & Six Nations. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

37 minutes ago, Macca said:

I've got no issue posting the 4pick up Wadda and my mates are welcome to tell their mates as well.  

The mate who does NRL also sometimes does AFL or Soccer.  The American sports mate really knows his stuff (across the 4 big sports)

With the golf mate it's a top 5 position only (not the winner)  His theory is that a number of the better golfers will rally late.  I don't follow golf closely so I defer to his knowledge. 

I reckon 4 picks is enough in a multi especially if there is individual value in each pick ($3+)

If I get a chance I'll post up the 4 picks sometime after they all come in. 

I do a 1-12 or 13+ margin pick with Super Rugby as I rarely miss with the actual winner ... I also look for a bit of value.  No risk,  no reward.  After Super Rugby I concentrate on the Internationals & Six Nations. 

Ok, top 5 in the golf makes more sense then. True enough if you can get 3 dollar value, then 4 is ok.

1-12 or 13+ is fine by me...no guts no glory! I much prefer the margins and they can usually present themselves......would be very interested to have a look at the selections anyway.

[Macca 16,972]

My best bet for the weekend is at Hawkesbury as well ...

Hawkesbury Race 6 (The Godolphin Crown) ... No.10 Sedanzer ($4.60 win & $1.85 place)

It is a very consistent horse that could have easily won its last 5 races.  It finishes off its races well.  It's a decent field but the horse has drawn the 3 gate and is trained by Gai Waterhouse.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Best Bet. Caulfield R6 No.1 Sunset Watch.

TAB odds: $1.95

Apologies for the short odds gents, I’ve looked for the last few days and this horse came out on top.

Tricky 2yr old set weights race but this colt is speedy and seems to hold his sprint well at the end. Two wins in a row and won well both times including one at the 1200m. 

[Macca 16,972]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok, top 5 in the golf makes more sense then. True enough if you can get 3 dollar value, then 4 is ok.

1-12 or 13+ is fine by me...no guts no glory! I much prefer the margins and they can usually present themselves......would be very interested to have a look at the selections anyway.

The 4 picks are in and here they are Wadda ... in order of when the events are decided.

• Geelong (1-39) vs Sydney  $2.10  (Sat 1.45pm)
• Crusaders (1-12) @ Brumbies $3.75 (Sat 7.30pm)
• Boston Celtics (-4.5) vs Milwaukee Bucks $1.95 (Sun 10.10am)
• Day/Ruffles (Top 5)  it is a pairs event) Zurich Classic  $6.00 (Monday morning)

Adds up to 92-1.   Cashing out before the golf is an option or 2 separate bets (first 3 events & all 4)

 

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

The 4 picks are in and here they are Wadda ... in order of when the events are decided.

• Geelong (1-39) vs Sydney  $2.10  (Sat 1.45pm)
• Crusaders (1-12) @ Brumbies $3.75 (Sat 7.30pm)
• Boston Celtics (-4.5) vs Milwaukee Bucks $1.95 (Sun 10.10am)
• Day/Ruffles (Top 5)  it is a pairs event) Zurich Classic  $6.00 (Monday morning)

Adds up to 92-1.   Cashing out before the golf is an option or 2 separate bets (first 3 events & all 4)

 

 

Cool, ill get on. Cheers....Ladbrokes only have win on the golf that i can see? Its also a live event as it started thurday.....

Im looking at a few BBs....get one in by lunchtime.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Cool, ill get on. Cheers....Ladbrokes only have win on the golf that i can see? Its also a live event as it started thurday.....

Im looking at a few BBs....get one in by lunchtime.

Sportsbet & the TAB have both got the first 5 available in the golf ... Ladbrokes may well have it up tomorrow.