A Day at the Races

[binman 41,952]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

That is a good day binman ... I also got the Trifecta in the 8th race in Melbourne as well as in the 7th at Randwick.  The initial dividend showed a 1500 payout in race 7 but because of the tie for 3rd,  the dividend quickly went down to 745.  Needless to say I was tad annoyed. 

That's a well thought out early quaddie ... I may try and do the same and try and identify at least one leg being a one-out or perhaps do as you've done with that early quad - 2 x one-out's. 

Did you pick rimraam or the other one? Rimraam was terrific value. Good get. The early quaddie at Flemington was like Sydney's usually are. Small fields in first few legs with one staying race. 

My mate who I bet with hates quaddies (and all exotics bar thise in the big four races for that matter) because of the takeout and he figures it us better long term just to put more on tgecwinners. And with good reason. We never get them. But I was super confident in those first three legs.. went wide obviously in the last, a race that was diabolical and I out in every horse I marked as a chance. You have have at least one stand out to get 100% (who wants 5%?).

[Macca 16,611]

54 minutes ago, binman said:

Did you pick rimraam or the other one? Rimraam was terrific value. Good get. The early quaddie at Flemington was like Sydney's usually are. Small fields in first few legs with one staying race. 

My mate who I bet with hates quaddies (and all exotics bar thise in the big four races for that matter) because of the takeout and he figures it us better long term just to put more on tgecwinners. And with good reason. We never get them. But I was super confident in those first three legs.. went wide obviously in the last, a race that was diabolical and I out in every horse I marked as a chance. You have have at least one stand out to get 100% (who wants 5%?).

I had the other one (Shumookh) but the winner was overs (Shoals 12-1) and the 2nd horse (Torvill) was also good value (17-1) ... I liked Shoals because I like giving the good horses a 2nd chance and if I recall correctly,  you had it marked as a winner a few weeks ago in the Kevin Hayes Stakes.  So thanks! 

The class horses can let you down (Care to Think,  Alizee) but they can just as quickly bounce straight back.  Speaking of which,  Dixie Blossoms looked a class above in that win on Saturday.  All that racing against top company was a telling factor. 

And as I'm quickly discovering,  you still have to stick your neck out with the quaddies ... the same principle applies to trifectas but having 3 of my multiple (3 - 5 - 5) to win always puts me at ease ... 2 horses only to win just doesn't work (for me at least)

Australian Group & Listed Races

Edited March 5, 2018 by Macca

[binman 41,952]

30 minutes ago, Macca said:

I had the other one (Shumookh) but the winner was overs (Shoals 12-1) and the 2nd horse (Torvill) was also good value (17-1) ... I liked Shoals because I like giving the good horses a 2nd chance and if I recall correctly,  you had it marked as a winner a few weeks ago in the Kevin Hayes Stakes.  So thanks! 

The class horses can let you down (Care to Think,  Alizee) but they can just as quickly bounce straight back.  Speaking of which,  Dixie Blossoms looked a class above in that win on Saturday.  All that racing against top company was a telling factor. 

And as I'm quickly discovering,  you still have to stick your neck out with the quaddies ... the same principle applies to trifectas but having 3 of my multiple (3 - 5 - 5) to win always puts me at ease ... 2 horses only to win just doesn't work for me. 

Dixie blossoms had the rating to overcome the negatives in its form i didn't like. Good win. As i have said we put our bets on in the morning and i work my stake out around the price it is then. She was $4 at 11am. Came right in.

With quaddies sometimes going one out with a really short fav can mean its hard to get value, particularly when horses near the top of the market win the other legs . It can better to take a punt on a shortish horse rather than a raging fav you like in a small field. Or else else take the short fav and don't go too wide in rhe other legs and try and get it a few times .

[Macca 16,611]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

Dixie blossoms had the rating to overcome the negatives in its form i didn't like. Good win. As i have said we put our bets on in the morning and i work my stake out around the price it is then. She was $4 at 11am. Came right in.

With quaddies sometimes going one out with a really short fav can mean its hard to get value, particularly when horses near the top of the market win the other legs . It can better to take a punt on a shortish horse rather than a raging fav you like in a small field. Or else else take the short fav and don't go too wide in rhe other legs and try and get it a few times .

I see ... so it's best to take a couple of others to win (as well as the raging favourite) in a race like the Challenge Stakes (where Redzel is already the 1.50 favourite) and hope that Redzel gets beaten. 

That principle would have worked in the Lightning Stakes as long as Redkirk Warrior is included as a winner.   Sounds like a plan.

[binman 41,952]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

I see ... so it's best to take a couple of others to win (as well as the raging favourite) in a race like the Challenge Stakes (where Redzel is already the 1.50 favourite) and hope that Redzel gets beaten. 

That principle would have worked in the Lightning Stakes as long as Redkirk Warrior is included as a winner.   Sounds like a plan.

No. In that scenario better to anchor redzel (assuming you really  think its going to win) and avoid the temptation to go wide in the other races. Lets say you had redzel as an anchor and had say only two in the other  for $40 you get the quaddie 5 times. It might only pay $80 but you get $400. You might also put a small saver on a horse in redzels race to cover redzel getting rolled (like the redkirk warrior example - a horse i love as i backed it in tge Newmarket last year) 

But most people would spend their $40 by something like 2, 5 and 4 in the non ancor legs. And at best double their money. The tab love it.

Much better value to be had to anchor a horse that is say 2.70 - 3.00 as usually there is a horse  at similar odds that most quaddie punters can't resist putting in.

 

[binman 41,952]

Speaking of value, i know this is a horse rac8ng thread but Melbourne is currently 2.25 against the cats. That is brilliant value.

If i was framing that market i would have us slight favs at about 1.80. Might have to have a go at that (and perhaps also over 39.5) and unlike futures in racing there is no risk of us not starting! 

[Macca 16,611]

3 minutes ago, binman said:

No. In that scenario better to anchor redzel (assuming you really  think its going to win) and avoid the temptation to go wide in the other races. Lets say you had redzel as an anchor and had say only two in the other  for $40 you get the quaddie 5 times. It might only pay $80 but you get $400. You might also put a small saver on a horse in redzels race to cover redzel getting rolled (like the redkirk warrior example - a horse i love as i backed it in tge Newmarket last year) 

But most people would spend their $40 by something like 2, 5 and 4 in the non ancor legs. And at best double their money. The tab love it.

Much better value to be had to anchor a horse that is say 2.70 - 3.00 as usually there is a horse  at similar odds that most quaddie punters can't resist putting in.

If we use our 4 best bets as an example of going one-out,  I would have taken a punt on Santos & Aloft but included a couple more with 'Care to Think' & Alizee. 

I would had Shoals in the Alizee race but not 'Crack Me Up' in the 'Care to Think' race (I didn't even have Crack Me Up in my top 5 in that race - hindsight says I should have, of course) 

I'll work something out but if not,  I'll just stick to my trifecta's.  For instance,  a $40 quadrella = 3 or 4 separate trifecta's in terms of outlay.  In the end,  we punt the way we feel comfortable with. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

Well,  I think I've got a strategy for next Saturday but might take the safer quaddie option of the Sydney races Wadda ... I've always liked the smaller fields anyway and that's how I've usually done my trifectas (smaller fields)

There's some great racing coming up at both Flemington & Randwick so we'll once again see a lot of the good horses running around. 

Ace High is again up against Kementari & Pierata in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and that race will be an interesting affair.  And Redzel looks like it's a starter in the Challenge Stakes (1000m)  Currently showing 1.50!

Ok well Ill standby for your Quad strategy Macca !

Well i tell you right now, Ace High will be my best bet for Saturday. Hopefully we can get a good price.

[Macca 16,611]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok well Ill standby for your Quad strategy Macca !

Well i tell you right now, Ace High will be my best bet for Saturday. Hopefully we can get a good price.

The strategy might mean to avoid Wadda! ... I have enjoyed the excellent feedback from your good self & binman though. 

What the chat has done is reinforce my trifecta strategy in terms of avoiding the big fields in Sydney & Melbourne but to also look elsewhere for the right type of trifecta races (Ascot,  Sha Tin & maybe Morphettville/Doomben)

I'm a great believer in 'whatever works' ...and if that means avoiding a bet in the odd big feature event, so be it.

[Dee Zephyr 19,158]

With the Golden Slipper just over 2 weeks away, does anything stand out in the early markets @Wadda We Sing @Macca @binman?

Santos is currently $11 but I'm unsure if he can topple some of the more fancied runners. Obviously I want to see the horse win but Sunlight and Written by have been nothing short of outstanding to date. Those two will be hard to beat IMO. 

[Macca 16,611]

5 hours ago, Demon77 said:

With the Golden Slipper just over 2 weeks away, does anything stand out in the early markets @Wadda We Sing @Macca @binman?

Santos is currently $11 but I'm unsure if he can topple some of the more fancied runners. Obviously I want to see the horse win but Sunlight and Written by have been nothing short of outstanding to date. Those two will be hard to beat IMO. 

One thing is for sure D77 ... there will be a number of very good 2yo's that won't run a place in the race.  The question is,  which ones?  And we might even have a surprise winner outside of the top 6.  If 'Spin' gets a run it could surprise ... couldn't get a run on Saturday but nearly got up (and the inside running wasn't the favoured way of going)

As you said,  Sunlight & Written By have been outstanding whilst Performer & Estijaab haven't done a lot wrong.  And then there's Santos (Gai has told us all to back him) and Seabrook was also impressive on Saturday.  Prairie Fire and Nomothaj also have claims. 

I normally steer clear of the 2yo races but not this time around ... there's a lot of high interest and any number of chances can win the Slipper.  Oohood for a place? ha ha

Edited March 6, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

36 minutes ago, Macca said:

One thing is for sure D77 ... there will be a number of very good 2yo's that won't run a place in the race.  The question is,  which ones?  And we might even have a surprise winner outside of the top 6.  If 'Spin' gets a run it could surprise ... couldn't get a run on Saturday but nearly got up (and the inside running wasn't the favoured way of going)

As you said,  Sunlight & Written By have been outstanding whilst Performer & Estijaab haven't done a lot wrong.  And then there's Santos (Gai has told us all to back him) and Seabrook was also impressive on Saturday.  Prairie Fire and Nomothaj also have claims. 

I normally steer clear of the 2yo races but not this time around ... there's a lot of high interest and any number of chances can win the Slipper.  Oohood for a place? ha ha

Pretty good assessment Macca & D77.Cant really add much. 

Im sticking with Written By at this stage, great win from the wide gate last start and loves to lead, away from the traffic... But Santos and Sunlight will be right up there....(when has Gai ever told us not to back one of hers!!) haha.......I also normally steer clear of 2yo, but this time around has me fascinated. ....and yeah Oohood will probably run a place !

[Dee Zephyr 19,158]

On 05/03/2018 at 11:57 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

 

Well i tell you right now, Ace High will be my best bet for Saturday. Hopefully we can get a good price.

Hi Wadda, current odds for Ace High in the Guineas. $11W $2.90P. 

In the Australian Derby 2400m (April 7th Randwick) he's the $6 favourite.

Edited March 6, 2018 by Demon77

[Dee Zephyr 19,158]

6 hours ago, Macca said:

Oohood for a place? ha ha

Lol, $7.25(P) currently. Juicy odds.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

17 hours ago, Demon77 said:

Hi Wadda, current odds for Ace High in the Guineas. $11W $2.90P. 

In the Australian Derby 2400m (April 7th Randwick) he's the $6 favourite.

Its a bit of a tricky one actually. I thought the race was a mile, but its 2000. Hes had 1 run at 1200 and 1 at 1400. I mean the distance is not a worry, apart from the step up. If hes fit then it should be ok no?

 

Edited March 7, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,611]

It is a bit confusing with the distances for Guineas races,  Derby & Oaks races

A quick glance at the Australian Group & Listed Races gives all the distances for the 3yo races - here are the main ones in the Autumn ...

• Randwick Guineas 1600m (March 10) $1Million
• Rosehill Guineas 2000m (March 24) 600k
• Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m (F) (March 31) 500k
• Australian Derby 2400m (April 7) $2Million
• ATC Oaks 2400m (F) (April 14) $1Million

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

12 minutes ago, Macca said:

It is a bit confusing with the distances for Guineas races,  Derby & Oaks races

A quick glance at the Australian Group & Listed Races gives all the distances for the 3yo races - here are the main ones in the Autumn ...

• Randwick Guineas 1600m (March 10) $1Million
• Rosehill Guineas 2000m (March 24) 600k
• Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m (F) (March 31) 500k
• Australian Derby 2400m (April 7) $2Million
• ATC Oaks 2400m (F) (April 14) $1Million

 

Sorry should have checked the Bible.....Right ok so its 1600....My Sydney mate said it was 2000....thought that was a bit strange.....so why is it paying 11.00? Who is favorite.... Phar Lap?

Edited March 7, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,611]

15 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Sorry should have checked the Bible.....Right ok so its 1600....My Sydney mate said it was 2000....thought that was a bit strange.....so why is it paying 11.00? Who is favorite.... Phar Lap?

lol ... I feel the same way about Redkirk Warrior - Ladbrokes is offering $8 but I was thinking of using the horse as my best bet.  May still do of course and if so,  I can see that 4 pick multi paying the big bucks!  Trouble is that we start going South after we get to '2 from 2'!

Maybe it's the week where we stick our necks out?  You just never know Wadda!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

lol ... I feel the same way about Redkirk Warrior - Ladbrokes is offering $8 but I was thinking of using the horse as my best bet.  May still do of course and if so,  I can see that 4 pick multi paying the big bucks!  Trouble is that we start going South after we get to '2 from 2'!

Maybe it's the week where we stick our necks out?  You just never know Wadda!

Im not worried about the strike rate.....its all in the past! lets go hard and snag a huge multi!

Im looking a bit at the distance. Ace has won over 1400, but as a listed race for 2yo, otherwise its 1800. But after 2 runs, albeit with a 3 week spell, it should be fit. Its had 2 starts at 1600, but was in the Heavy going that last autumn.... It brained em in the Spring......Kentamari is good, but it aint Phar Lap........im still pretty keen.

I like Redkirk as well.

[Macca 16,611]

Sorted out all my trifectas tonight ... fine tuning only required.  For years I did the form on a Friday night/Saturday morning armed with various publications but these days Racenet.com does the job. 

Race 6 at Randwick (Canterbury Stakes - Group 1) was a toughie even though there are only 9 runners ... I could make a case for 8 of the 9 winning.  In the end I had to take a few educated guesses.  The trifecta & first 4 could pay well in that race, all things considered.   

[Dee Zephyr 19,158]

I browsed through Sydney and Melbourne and there’s definitely some great value on offer.

Ace High seems to be getting the wobbles in the markets. Out to $14 as of tonight. He’s drawn well and could easily find himself in the first few on the fence. Show A Star (Race 9 Syd) has drawn poorly again and although the $8 is tempting it’s best to wait on him at this stage. Some real shorties going around in the sprint races in Sydney.

At this early stage Shillelagh (R7 Flemington) looks a good bet at $4.20.

Edit: Brave Smash back in distance.....hmmm? Craig Williams suggested this according to a news story I came across a few days ago.

Edited March 7, 2018 by Demon77

[Macca 16,611]

I should know already but the handicap conditions in the Newmarket Hcp means that all bar 2 horses (Redkirk Warrior 57.5kgs & Brave Smash 56.5kgs) are carrying 52.5kgs or less. 

I've also noted that David Hayes has mentioned a few times that in the sprint races the weight isn't such a factor (unless the difference is significant)

So is 4 or 5kgs quite significant over the 1200m?  You'd reckon it is and that probably explains why the top 2 horses are at each-way odds.  What I do know is that there are a number of good or very good horses carrying very little weight in the race.  

[Macca 16,611]

As you blokes are well aware,  I'm a trifecta punter so it stands to reason that I find the Group 1 races to be quite tricky.  So to help each other in all the exotics (Quaddies,  Quinellas,  First 4's,  Trifecta's and the like) I thought it might be an idea to post up our top 3 in the Group 1's. 

However,  narrowing it down to 3 possible winners is no easier than trying to find one standout!

Anyway,  here goes ...

• Newmarket Hcp ... Redkirk Warrior,  Brave Smash,  Merchant Navy
• Australian Cup ... Gailo Chop,  Homesman,  Almandin
• Canterbury Stakes ... Global Glamour,  Foxplay,  Clearly Innocent
• Randwick Guineas ... Kementari,  Pierata,  Ace High

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

39 minutes ago, Macca said:

I should know already but the handicap conditions in the Newmarket Hcp means that all bar 2 horses (Redkirk Warrior 57.5kgs & Brave Smash 56.5kgs) are carrying 52.5kgs or less. 

I've also noted that David Hayes has mentioned a few times that in the sprint races the weight isn't such a factor (unless the difference is significant)

So is 4 or 5kgs quite significant over the 1200m?  You'd reckon it is and that probably explains why the top 2 horses are at each-way odds.  What I do know is that there are a number of good or very good horses carrying very little weight in the race.  

Im all over Merchant Navy......might make it my best....tossing up atm. Have had it in a fridge multi for a while now.....(had Winks at 1.15!) in the same multi...so far so good.

Edited March 8, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

As you blokes are well aware,  I'm a trifecta punter so it stands to reason that I find the Group 1 races to be quite tricky.  So to help each other in all the exotics (Quaddies,  Quinellas,  First 4's,  Trifecta's and the like) I thought it might be an idea to post up our top 3 in the Group 1's. 

However,  narrowing it down to 3 possible winners is no easier than trying to find one standout!

Anyway,  here goes ...

• Newmarket Hcp ... Redkirk Warrior,  Brave Smash,  Merchant Navy
• Australian Cup ... Gailo Chop,  Homesman,  Almandin
• Canterbury Stakes ... Global Glamour,  Foxplay,  Clearly Innocent
• Randwick Guineas ... Kementari,  Pierata,  Ace High

Nice work.