A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,900]

13 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Do you think we will see another horse in our lifetime win the Melbourne Cup 3 years running? 

I was a massive fan of Vinnie Roe, he was a quality stayer but he just couldn't topple the great mare.

I attended the 2004 Melb Cup, the downpour fazed no one that day, that great race will be a long lasting memory.

My first Cup Day in attendance was way back in 1976 - pelted down all day but I backed the winner (Van Der Hum) ... so crowded that we didn't even see the race.  Those were the days! 

Anyway,  it would have to be a super horse to win the Melbourne Cup 4 times.  And it would probably have to win the race as a 3yo to have any chance.  You never know,  it's a real long shot but it may happen.

Winx could win the Cox Plate for a 4th time (that would be a record?) but I'm not sure it will ever contest the race again.  Think I'm right in saying that Winx is a 6 year old (right now) so it would be a 7 year old next Spring. 

Edited January 28, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

12 minutes ago, Macca said:

It would have to be a super horse to win the Melbourne Cup 4 times.  And it would probably have to win the race as a 3yo to have any chance.  You never know,  it's a real long shot but it may happen.

Winx could win the Cox Plate for a 4th time (that would be a record?) but I'm not sure it will ever contest the race again.  Think I'm right in saying that Winx is a 6 year old (right now) so it would be a 7 year old next Spring. 

You're right Macca, Winx will be 7 next spring.

The odds (Pre Noms) for the Cox have her listed a $3 favourite, which suggests it might not be a plan. Every other horse is at double figure odds. 

$3 for Winx would usually have people lining up to back her.

 

 

[Macca 16,900]

1 minute ago, Demon77 said:

You're right Macca, Winx will be 7 next spring.

The odds (Pre Noms) for the Cox have her listed a $3 favourite, which suggests it might not be a plan. Every other horse is at double figure odds. 

$3 for Winx would usually have people lining up to back her.

It's my reckoning that the horse will run 3 races in Sydney during the Autumn Carnival and then head off to Europe to contest those 3 races it has been possibly earmarked for.  4 races in either hemisphere is too many if that's the plan. 

After that they'll either retire the horse or it might possibly run in one more Cox Plate.  It's either/or but I favour the former argument.  Which would be a shame because if it could win a 4th Cox Plate it would be a fantastic thing to happen. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

On 27/01/2018 at 5:03 PM, Macca said:

 

I've saved my bickies for Sha Tin tomorrow ... there's at least 7 horses that can get into the finish in the G1 Stewards Cup (Race 8) so it should be a great mile race. 

However,  I'm not confident of getting the right combo in a trifecta in that race so will instead have a go at the G1 Centenary Sprint Cup (Race 7)

1, 2 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 is my preferred 2-5-5 outcome in a trifecta.  The favourite no.1 (Mr Stunning) should win but I'm hoping that the 2 (D B Pin) can beat it out to the finish.  It's only an 8 horse field but the right combo can still pay alright. 

That was an impressive win by D B Pin Macca, once again your selections were spot on.

Thanks to you I placed the same trifecta as above. Dividends aren't huge by any means, but look at the bright side, we collect on two trifectas.

[Macca 16,900]

41 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

That was an impressive win by D B Pin Macca, once again your selections were spot on.

Thanks to you I placed the same trifecta as above. Dividends aren't huge by any means, but look at the bright side, we collect on two trifectas.

It's a system that can give constant returns and the odd decent return (Small field/Group 1)    Mr Stunning needed to run out of a place for a good dividend.  I usually like to go 3-5-5 or 2-6-6 when there's a hot favourite involved.  Or just avoid the race altogether.  Both feature races were keenly contested and Werther raced well for 3rd in the Stewards Cup (paid 3.30 - that's ok in a multi)

By the way,  in the sprint race the trainer was in charge of the first 3 placegetters so maybe it was time for the 'Pin' to win!  Hmmmmmm - That's an old 'Hayes' play (through the generations)

2 of the horses to watch out for (down the track) from the 2 Group 1 races are ''Beat the Clock' & 'Fifty Fifty'.  Both were stepping up to Group 1 , both placed and were running home very well.

Anyway,  doubling one's outlay is never a bad thing D77!

And with regards to our best bets I'll try and post up some links to some of the quaddie races sometime during the week - there's 3 or 4 decent races (SW / WFA) next weekend that are worth a look at.  The weekend after that it all begins in earnest!

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

It's a system that can give constant returns and the odd decent return (Small field/Group 1)    Mr Stunning needed to run out of a place for a good dividend.  I usually like to go 3-5-5 or 2-6-6 when there's a hot favourite involved.  Or just avoid the race altogether.  Both feature races were keenly contested and Werther raced well for 3rd in the Stewards Cup (paid 3.30 - that's ok in a multi)

By the way,  in the sprint race the trainer was in charge of the first 3 placegetters so maybe it was time for the 'Pin' to win!  Hmmmmmm - That's an old 'Hayes' play (through the generations)

2 of the horses to watch out for (down the track) from the 2 Group 1 races are ''Beat the Clock' & 'Fifty Fifty'.  Both were stepping up to Group 1 , both placed and were running home very well.

Anyway,  doubling one's outlay is never a bad thing D77!

And with regards to our best bets I'll try and post up some links to some of the quaddie races sometime during the week - there's 3 or 4 decent races (SW / WFA) next weekend that are worth a look at.  The weekend after that it all begins in earnest!

That's exactly right Macca, you would be a wealthy man if you could double your outlay each time you had a bet.

I did have a small each way bet on Werther with the profits from the tri. 

The horse seemed to be stuck out wide early then pushed up outside the leader. Glad he gripped on for third.  $3.30 is terrific place value for a leg in a multi.

 

 

[Macca 16,900]

Just now, Demon77 said:

That's exactly right Macca, you would be a wealthy man if you could double your outlay each time you had a bet.

I did have a small each way bet on Werther with the profits from the tri. 

The horse seemed to be stuck out wide early then pushed up outside the leader. Glad he gripped on for third.  $3.30 is terrific place value for a leg in a multi.

I was testing the water a bit on this thread mentioning Mr Stunning & Werther.  I doubt anyone was going to back Mr Stunning at those prohibitive odds but Werther was worth a gamble. 

Mind you,  the TAB didn't have the races from Sha Tin up until this morning and they didn't offer any fixed odds either - typical.

Another point on the 'Best Bet'  ... if I really like any of the choices I'm going to try and say as much.  That way,  we can extra opinions on a horses chances if we end up with 5 - 8 choices and want to narrow it down. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Well done guys, i was pre-occupied today, but i would have had Werther for a place. Nice collect for you. I like those trifecta combinations. Bring on the Autumn.

Winx was 4.50 in her 1st Cox Plate.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

7 hours ago, Macca said:

Winx is possibly more of a mile horse at it's optimum best these days Wadda - of course,  it often brains them at 2000m but perhaps not always as convincingly as it once did (it just lasted in last year's Cox Plate)

The connections of Winx have earmarked 3 races in Europe which it may contest (if it goes over there) - 2 are over the 1600m & only 1 is over the 2000m.  Think I'm right in saying that Makybe Diva nearly won an Orr Stakes (1400m) yet we all know how good the horse was as a stayer.

The great 1600m horses can also be great at 1400m ... but all the way down to 1200m?  Maybe.  But we are talking about Winx and the Everest will carry prizemoney of $12Million this year (man, that's a lot of money)  Manikato was a great mile horse but would often drop down to 1200m and win.

I guess when you think about it, Winx has already lost 6 races in her career, so a loss is not the end of the world, especially with regards to future breeding dollars. Shes won over 1100, 1200 and 1400 in her career, albeit early days, in fact her 1st four races were over these distances. She often trials over shorter distances, 900, 1100 etc.

There must be some kind of form there, or they wouldnt nominate. With 12,000,000 on offer, a lot goes on behind closed doors, including a lot of pressure from Sydney racing people to get her to run in their big race. I would say yes, depends if she goes to Europe or not and what those results are like. Bit hard to see her running in The Everest 14th Oct and The Cox Plate 28th Oct 2 weeks later.

So its probably a case of nominate for all, and then make decisions depending on results.

[Macca 16,900]

50 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I guess when you think about it, Winx has already lost 6 races in her career, so a loss is not the end of the world, especially with regards to future breeding dollars. Shes won over 1100, 1200 and 1400 in her career, albeit early days, in fact her 1st four races were over these distances. She often trials over shorter distances, 900, 1100 etc.

There must be some kind of form there, or they wouldnt nominate. With 12,000,000 on offer, a lot goes on behind closed doors, including a lot of pressure from Sydney racing people to get her to run in their big race. I would say yes, depends if she goes to Europe or not and what those results are like. Bit hard to see her running in The Everest 14th Oct and The Cox Plate 28th Oct 2 weeks later.

So its probably a case of nominate for all, and then make decisions depending on results.

Yep,  spot on.  That race (The Everest) has just been accepted as part of the landscape straight off.  With that sort of money on offer it's bound to attract the connections of a number of the International horses (including a few that ran at Sha Tin today)

Anyway,  I posted up the following link (see below) a couple of months ago but here it is again ... click on any of the races for a summary and a write-up of how each of the races are often stepping stones to the other bigger races. 

There's actually a bit on next weekend Wadda ... a prelude of better things to come. .

Australian Group & Listed Races

Edited January 28, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

52 minutes ago, Macca said:

Yep,  spot on.  That race (The Everest) has just been accepted as part of the landscape straight off.  With that sort of money on offer it's bound to attract the connections of a number of the International horses (including a few that ran at Sha Tin today)

Anyway,  I posted up the following link (see below) a couple of months ago but here it is again ... click on any of the races for a summary and a write-up of how each of the races are often stepping stones to the other bigger races. 

There's actually a bit on next weekend Wadda ... a prelude of better things to come. .

Australian Group & Listed Races

Awesome work Macca. Looks like things do hot up next weekend. This is what i mean about keeping this thread. Ive just realized how much information weve put together already.

That is a really great calendar.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Yep,  spot on.  That race (The Everest) has just been accepted as part of the landscape straight off.  With that sort of money on offer it's bound to attract the connections of a number of the International horses (including a few that ran at Sha Tin today)

Anyway,  I posted up the following link (see below) a couple of months ago but here it is again ... click on any of the races for a summary and a write-up of how each of the races are often stepping stones to the other bigger races. 

There's actually a bit on next weekend Wadda ... a prelude of better things to come. .

Australian Group & Listed Races

My goodness, what a calendar!

When I first heard about The Everest I was a critic thinking it encroaches on the Melbourne spring carnival.

After reading a few articles post The Everest the interest it generated in Victoria was immense for the sprint races. 

The planning was spot on, a fortnight later you have the Manikato followed by the Darley Classic a fortnight after that. The scheduling of the race didn't effect Melbourne bound horses.

A race worth $10mil and it's not eligible for group status. Some think the Australian Racing Board should step in and amend the rules to give the race the status it deserves. 

 

[Macca 16,900]

23 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Awesome work Macca. Looks like things do hot up next weekend. This is what i mean about keeping this thread. Ive just realized how much information weve put together already.

That is a really great calendar.

 

22 hours ago, Demon77 said:

My goodness, what a calendar!

When I first heard about The Everest I was a critic thinking it encroaches on the Melbourne spring carnival.

After reading a few articles post The Everest the interest it generated in Victoria was immense for the sprint races. 

The planning was spot on, a fortnight later you have the Manikato followed by the Darley Classic a fortnight after that. The scheduling of the race didn't effect Melbourne bound horses.

A race worth $10mil and it's not eligible for group status. Some think the Australian Racing Board should step in and amend the rules to give the race the status it deserves.

It's a terrific go-to listing isn't it!

Whilst the racing calendar might seem like a chaotic schedule to non-aficionados,  that link to all the Group races makes sense of it all.  I especially like the write-ups for the Group 1's or Group 2's where it's mentioned how the acceptors arrived at those races via certain lead-up races.  That stuff helped me at the Ascot Carnival. 

I'll try and remember to copy & paste the link every time we go to a new page. 

It's going to be quite a challenge coming up with our 'best bets' ... I've done that sort of thing with mates before putting a trifecta/first 4 together but not so much with multi betting.  I might end up trying to find something at Rosehill (early doors)

So where does everyone have the most luck/best results? 

I much prefer Flemington/Randwick/Rosehill but I've had a few decent collects at Caulfield/Moonee Valley.  I like Ascot (WA) but have only had sporadic bets at Eagle Farm/Doomben/Morphettville.  But because the Demons rarely ever play on a Saturday arvo (2 games this season) the Qld & SA carnivals could well be front & centre this time around. 

Sha Tin for the big events is becoming a favourite too (especially when they race there on a Sunday)  And the big races from Europe have great appeal - I kinda like the thought of having a trifecta or 2 in those big European races and then waking up on a Sunday morning with a healthier account!

Edited January 29, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

 

It's a terrific go-to listing isn't it!

Whilst the racing calendar might seem like a chaotic schedule to non-aficionados,  that link to all the Group races makes sense of it all.  I especially like the write-ups for the Group 1's or Group 2's where it's mentioned how the acceptors arrived at those races via certain lead-up races.  That stuff helped me at the Ascot Carnival. 

I'll try and remember to copy & paste the link every time we go to a new page. 

It's going to be quite a challenge coming up with our 'best bets' ... I've done that sort of thing with mates before putting a trifecta/first 4 together but not so much with multi betting.  I might end up trying to find something at Rosehill (early doors)

So where does everyone have the most luck/best results? 

I much prefer Flemington/Randwick/Rosehill but I've had a few decent collects at Caulfield/Moonee Valley.  I like Ascot (WA) but have only had sporadic bets at Eagle Farm/Doomben/Morphettville.  But because the Demons rarely ever play on a Saturday arvo (2 games this season) the Qld & SA carnivals could well be front & centre this time around. 

Sha Tin for the big events is becoming a favourite too (especially when they race there on a Sunday)  And the big races from Europe have great appeal - I kinda like the thought of having a trifecta or 2 in those big European races and then waking up on a Sunday morning with a healthier account!

 Flemington has produced the best luck for me over the years Macca. It's my favourite track in general. 

I'm enjoying that link, i missed it the first time for some reason. 

You've also made me look at our fixture again, only 2 Saturday afternoons? Looks like Saturdays are taken up by "A Day at the Races."

 

 

 

[Macca 16,900]

18 hours ago, Demon77 said:

 Flemington has produced the best luck for me over the years Macca. It's my favourite track in general. 

I'm enjoying that link, i missed it the first time for some reason. 

You've also made me look at our fixture again, only 2 Saturday afternoons? Looks like Saturdays are taken up by "A Day at the Races.

Well that's the crux of it D77 ... Saturday afternoon AFL is often filled with ordinary match-ups and there's no AFL on free-to-air Saturday afternoons anyway.

Because of that,  people look for other things to do or watch.  Rugby League & Super Rugby avoids Saturday afternoons so what's left?  The Thoroughbreds or local sport. 

[Macca 16,900]

'Ace High' has been entered for the Expressway Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday ... 1200m only though so it might be a bit short. 

However,  it often pays to keep a lookout for these class horses dropping back in distance ... the horse has been ridden forward for a lot of its races.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

23 hours ago, Macca said:

 

It's a terrific go-to listing isn't it!

Whilst the racing calendar might seem like a chaotic schedule to non-aficionados,  that link to all the Group races makes sense of it all.  I especially like the write-ups for the Group 1's or Group 2's where it's mentioned how the acceptors arrived at those races via certain lead-up races.  That stuff helped me at the Ascot Carnival. 

I'll try and remember to copy & paste the link every time we go to a new page. 

It's going to be quite a challenge coming up with our 'best bets' ... I've done that sort of thing with mates before putting a trifecta/first 4 together but not so much with multi betting.  I might end up trying to find something at Rosehill (early doors)

So where does everyone have the most luck/best results? 

I much prefer Flemington/Randwick/Rosehill but I've had a few decent collects at Caulfield/Moonee Valley.  I like Ascot (WA) but have only had sporadic bets at Eagle Farm/Doomben/Morphettville.  But because the Demons rarely ever play on a Saturday arvo (2 games this season) the Qld & SA carnivals could well be front & centre this time around. 

Sha Tin for the big events is becoming a favourite too (especially when they race there on a Sunday)  And the big races from Europe have great appeal - I kinda like the thought of having a trifecta or 2 in those big European races and then waking up on a Sunday morning with a healthier account!

I still think Saturday arvo is the best time for footy, but thats just me!

Yes i really like that aspect to, as i often dont have a clue as to what race a horse had to go to prior and what it leads onto. Its a really great resource.

Ive had a bit of a mixed bag over the years. There was time there when Caulfield was nearly impossible to pick. It seems to be a bit better these days.

I guess ive had my best results at Flemington, but as i used to live in Elwood, i still consider Caulfield my local.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

16 minutes ago, Macca said:

'Ace High' has been entered for the Expressway Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday ... 1200m only though so it might be a bit short. 

However,  it often pays to keep a lookout for these class horses dropping back in distance ... the horse has been ridden forward for a lot of its races.

Well spotted. Ill be following its every move.

[Macca 16,900]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I still think Saturday arvo is the best time for footy, but thats just me!

Yes i really like that aspect to, as i often dont have a clue as to what race a horse had to go to prior and what it leads onto. Its a really great resource.

Ive had a bit of a mixed bag over the years. There was time there when Caulfield was nearly impossible to pick. It seems to be a bit better these days.

I guess ive had my best results at Flemington, but as i used to live in Elwood, i still consider Caulfield my local.

Well I played cricket for over 30 years (on a Sat arvo) so I never used to have the opportunity to go to the Spring Carnival.  During the winter I was either playing footy on a Saturday or I went and watched the Demons play on a Saturday - so the races missed out then too.  The transistor ruled! (the tranny)

That all changed when I stopped playing cricket and when the Demons started playing predominantly on Sunday's (from when Joe Gutnick was Pres?) ... which happened at the same time. 

So I've got used to having my Saturday arvo's free for the races.  Making up for lost time so to speak.  But I'm with you though Wadda - footy every week on a Saturday with all the scores from the other grounds was great.  I'm glad I lived in that era.  You'd go and see a band afterwards whilst Sunday's was nearly always playing golf with a hangover! 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

38 minutes ago, Macca said:

'Ace High' has been entered for the Expressway Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday ... 1200m only though so it might be a bit short. 

However, it often pays to keep a lookout for these class horses dropping back in distance ... the horse has been ridden forward for a lot of its races.

I agree Macca.

Dans part owner likes to bet on horses first-up ( with a lot of success mind you) but he only backs them when they have won first-up in previous preps.

 It's his little strategy, problem is, he only tells me about his winners after the fact. I've followed this a few times without success. 

Tempted to have a little flutter on 'Ace High', currently $26 with Tab.

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by Demon77

[Macca 16,900]

2 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

I agree Macca.

Dans part owner likes to bet on horses first-up but he only backs them when they have won first-up in previous preps.

 It's his little strategy, problem is, he only tells me about his winners after the fact. I've followed this a few times without success. 

Tempted to have a little flutter on 'Ace High' currently $26 with Tab.

Back in the day when I was a W & P punter I'd sometimes go 10 the Win & 20 the Place (that sort of ratio) ... 'Ace High likes to lead and we know it boxes on extremely well.  And the Caulfield straight isn't overly long. 

Needs a decent barrier draw,  all the same.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

9 minutes ago, Macca said:

Well I played cricket for over 30 years (on a Sat arvo) so I never used to have the opportunity to go to the Spring Carnival.  During the winter I was either playing footy on a Saturday or I went and watched the Demons play on a Saturday - so the races missed out then too.  The transistor ruled! (the tranny)

That all changed when I stopped playing cricket and when the Demons started playing predominantly on Sunday's (from when Joe Gutnick was Pres?) ... which happened at the same time. 

So I've got used to having my Saturday arvo's free for the races.  Making up for lost time so to speak.  But I'm with you though Wadda - footy every week on a Saturday with all the scores from the other grounds was great.  I'm glad I lived in that era.  You'd go and see a band afterwards whilst Sunday's was nearly always playing golf with a hangover! 

Yeah, we were blessed to live through that era. A lot of the grounds are still there, i hope they revisit it again. I played Lawn Bowls for many years on a Saturday, and would dash inside to watch some of the bigger races, much to the horror of my teammates and opposition!

[Macca 16,900]

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah, we were blessed to live through that era. A lot of the grounds are still there, i hope they revisit it again. I played Lawn Bowls for many years on a Saturday, and would dash inside to watch some of the bigger races, much to the horror of my teammates and opposition!

Ha ha ha!  Playing cricket we would change the tea break time for the Caulfield Cup. 

22 flanneled fools and an umpire hovering around the Sanyo transistor.  Back in those days everyone had a bet.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

Ha ha ha!  Playing cricket we would change the tea break time for the Caulfield Cup. 

22 flanneled fools and an umpire hovering around the Sanyo transistor.  Back in those days everyone had a bet.

For the bigger races, i have been known to stop the entire club!

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Well done guys on the new name for the thread.