MELBOURNE 2016 SEASON PREVIEW - Me? I Like Football

[The Hitman 11]

Hi Demons fans, last year I posted Melbourne's season preview and it generated some good discussion. You can check that out here.

In that spirit, I thought I'd come back and post the 2016 season preview for the Dees.

Genuinely interested in finding out your realistic aims, what has you excited and your feedback on the preview.

I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to comply with the BigFooty anti-spamming protocols; hopefully that's okay for the mods. 

I am not the author, but I've let him know I've posted the preview and he'll be here to engage! And if you want to see the previews of the other 17 clubs as they happen, you can check those out by clicking here.

2016 season preview: Melbourne
By Rudi Edsall

Last season

The oldest club in the land came into 2015 without much in the way of expectations. With a scarred psyche from the disastrous Mark Neeld days and a playing list that, at times in 2014, looked like it was learning how to play footy again, it’s fair to say the Demons looked at last season as part of a rebuilding arc.

In the end it played out in a classic retooling narrative for them – some abject performances mixed with rousing wins, and the green shoots of a side that can make a move towards the finals.

The seven victories they banked included a Bernie Vince inspired win in Geelong (their first since 2005), an expert wet weather performance against Richmond early in the season and a five-goal stroll against the otherwise rampaging Bulldogs.

The round 20 return fixture against the Dogs provided the ultimate contrast, however. Melbourne conceding the first 12 majors to find themselves 74 points down just eight minutes into the second quarter. A final margin of 98 flattered the Dees. The other end of the spectrum – though no less demoralising – was a loss to St Kilda that exposed the inexperience of the playing group, with naïve defending snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The narrative that defined Melbourne’s season, however, didn’t come in the form of wins or losses, but rather in the powerful frame of young key forward Jesse Hogan. The 21-year-old made his debut last year after a couple of seasons lost to injury and immediately made an impact with his presence, contested marking and ability to influence the contest. He was the Dees’ leading goal scorer with 44 and finished third in the league for contested marks.

Comings and goings

Some tough list management decisions were made in the off-season, with loyal ruck servant Mark Jamar and hard-nosed midfielder Daniel Cross shown the door. Jumpin’ Jeremy Howe and Jimmy Toumpas found their way to Collingwood and Port Adelaide respectively in one of those deals you need a degree in pure mathematics to figure out; while ex-Pies speedster Ben Kennedy came the other way to Melbourne. Meanwhile, tall forward Jack Fitzpatrick made the move east to kick three goals in Hawthorn’s next premiership side in return for pick 94.

Cross will still be at the club, having taken on an assistant coaching role, while Jamar took up the opportunity to be one of the ‘Essendon 10’, taking up the fabled 53 guernsey so that the Bombers can field a side this year. The ramifications of WADA’s ban have touched Melbourne too, with newly minted Demon Jake Melksham having to sit out the first of his four years with the club under suspension.

The Dees ended the trade period with two picks inside the top ten and used them on Morrish Medal winning midfielder Clayton Oliver and contested marking key forward Sam Weideman, grandson of Collingwood royalty Murray.

Ruckman Mitch King and tall forward Liam Hulett rounded out the Demons’ draft selections, while Rohan Bail, Jordie McKenzie and Aidan Riley were delisted. Viv Michie was also cut but was re-drafted to the rookie list.

Strengths

Melbourne’s midfield, while perhaps not the most cultured or explosive, is a hard-nosed unit that will keep the bastards honest. Led by warrior-king Nathan Jones, with Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw to do the yeoman’s work, it’s a group that won’t be waltzed through.

The big hope for the Dees is 2014 number two pick Christian Petracca. He’s effectively functioning as a new recruit after a year off with a knee injury, and will be looked to on to add the class on top of that base.

Melbourne also has a fairly strong defensive unit. Tom McDonald, Colin Garland and Lynden Dunn are more than handy in the key posts, while Neville Jetta, Heritier Lumumba and Christian Salem should be able to provide run.

Weaknesses

The Dees’ forward line entries were a complete mess in 2015; they averaged just 72 points per game. That figure placed them third bottom for points scored, which is also where they sat for inside 50s per game. It’s a handy thing that Jesse Hogan is so proficient at making a lot out of a little.

Speaking of Hogan, his consistent contribution will be required, as the key forward stocks after him are thin. Chris Dawes is an honest trier but struggles to get his body right and is arguably not ahead of Pedersen – another trier – in the pecking order, regardless. Jack Watts may have to pinch hit as a third tall.

Max Gawn is another example of a strength papering over a weakness; if his output goes down or he gets injured, Jake Spencer is the next ruckman in line.

What to expect in 2016

Given where they finished last year, Melbourne’s draw could certainly be kinder. They will be happy to have potentially winnable double ups against St Kilda and Gold Coast, but would have liked to have played one of Essendon or Carlton twice. Two matches against Hawthorn, Collingwood and Port Adelaide (both games against Port being interstate due to Melbourne’s home arrangement with Darwin) look tough asks, however.

Another year into the legs of the tyros and some more experience in the bank is the idea. In what is likely Paul Roos’ last season at the helm before Simon Goodwin takes over, the idea will be to push for finals – regression from last season would be a disaster and leave doubts that perhaps the club isn’t that much further along than when Roos took over.

Best 22

B: Neville Jetta – Colin Garland – Lynden Dunn
HB: Christian Salem – Tom McDonald – Heritier Lumumba
C: Angus Brayshaw – Jack Viney – Dom Tyson
HF: Christian Petracca – Cam Pedersen – Jack Watts
F: Jeff Garlett – Jesse Hogan – Dean Kent
FOLL: Max Gawn – Bernie Vince – Nathan Jones
INT: Aaron vandenBerg – Ben Kennedy – Tomas Bugg – Alex Neal-Bullen

The verdict

Another year of steady improvement is likely on the cards as natural development takes place. They need to improve on last year’s seven wins – 10 would be a pass mark.

We have Melbourne finishing 14th.

[btdemon 482]

I've just been looking over the draw. It's very tough. 10 wins would be more than a pass mark. We play Essendon, Brisbane and Carlton only once. On the current predictions they are the only wins I would 'pencil in', and I would be ready with the eraser in regards to St Kilda. The "10 wins" target requires us to rack up some unexpected win, and no doubt, I'm sure there might be a couple. I'm talking about wins against teams that are expected to finish in the top eight, such as GWS, Suns, Richmond, Collingwood, Nth Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney, Doggies or Port. However, it is going to take a few of these to reach 10 wins and I'm much less hopeful after looking over the draw. We have to play Hawthorn twice and thankfully Geelong only once. To start with the momentum of 3-0 in the preseason is great but I'm less bullish about it than some on this site. I think PJ's target of finals in 2016 might be a season too early. I hope I'm very, very wrong.

[CBDees 3,167]

On 11 March 2016 at 11:43 PM, The Hitman said:

Hi Demons fans, last year I posted Melbourne's season preview and it generated some good discussion. You can check that out here.

In that spirit, I thought I'd come back and post the 2016 season preview for the Dees.

Genuinely interested in finding out your realistic aims, what has you excited and your feedback on the preview.

I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to comply with the BigFooty anti-spamming protocols; hopefully that's okay for the mods. 

I am not the author, but I've let him know I've posted the preview and he'll be here to engage! And if you want to see the previews of the other 17 clubs as they happen, you can check those out by clicking here.

2016 season preview: Melbourne
By Rudi Edsall

Last season

The oldest club in the land came into 2015 without much in the way of expectations. With a scarred psyche from the disastrous Mark Neeld days and a playing list that, at times in 2014, looked like it was learning how to play footy again, it’s fair to say the Demons looked at last season as part of a rebuilding arc.

In the end it played out in a classic retooling narrative for them – some abject performances mixed with rousing wins, and the green shoots of a side that can make a move towards the finals.

The seven victories they banked included a Bernie Vince inspired win in Geelong (their first since 2005), an expert wet weather performance against Richmond early in the season and a five-goal stroll against the otherwise rampaging Bulldogs.

The round 20 return fixture against the Dogs provided the ultimate contrast, however. Melbourne conceding the first 12 majors to find themselves 74 points down just eight minutes into the second quarter. A final margin of 98 flattered the Dees. The other end of the spectrum – though no less demoralising – was a loss to St Kilda that exposed the inexperience of the playing group, with naïve defending snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The narrative that defined Melbourne’s season, however, didn’t come in the form of wins or losses, but rather in the powerful frame of young key forward Jesse Hogan. The 21-year-old made his debut last year after a couple of seasons lost to injury and immediately made an impact with his presence, contested marking and ability to influence the contest. He was the Dees’ leading goal scorer with 44 and finished third in the league for contested marks.

Comings and goings

Some tough list management decisions were made in the off-season, with loyal ruck servant Mark Jamar and hard-nosed midfielder Daniel Cross shown the door. Jumpin’ Jeremy Howe and Jimmy Toumpas found their way to Collingwood and Port Adelaide respectively in one of those deals you need a degree in pure mathematics to figure out; while ex-Pies speedster Ben Kennedy came the other way to Melbourne. Meanwhile, tall forward Jack Fitzpatrick made the move east to kick three goals in Hawthorn’s next premiership side in return for pick 94.

Cross will still be at the club, having taken on an assistant coaching role, while Jamar took up the opportunity to be one of the ‘Essendon 10’, taking up the fabled 53 guernsey so that the Bombers can field a side this year. The ramifications of WADA’s ban have touched Melbourne too, with newly minted Demon Jake Melksham having to sit out the first of his four years with the club under suspension.

The Dees ended the trade period with two picks inside the top ten and used them on Morrish Medal winning midfielder Clayton Oliver and contested marking key forward Sam Weideman, grandson of Collingwood royalty Murray.

Ruckman Mitch King and tall forward Liam Hulett rounded out the Demons’ draft selections, while Rohan Bail, Jordie McKenzie and Aidan Riley were delisted. Viv Michie was also cut but was re-drafted to the rookie list.

Strengths

Melbourne’s midfield, while perhaps not the most cultured or explosive, is a hard-nosed unit that will keep the bastards honest. Led by warrior-king Nathan Jones, with Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw to do the yeoman’s work, it’s a group that won’t be waltzed through.

The big hope for the Dees is 2014 number two pick Christian Petracca. He’s effectively functioning as a new recruit after a year off with a knee injury, and will be looked to on to add the class on top of that base.

Melbourne also has a fairly strong defensive unit. Tom McDonald, Colin Garland and Lynden Dunn are more than handy in the key posts, while Neville Jetta, Heritier Lumumba and Christian Salem should be able to provide run.

Weaknesses

The Dees’ forward line entries were a complete mess in 2015; they averaged just 72 points per game. That figure placed them third bottom for points scored, which is also where they sat for inside 50s per game. It’s a handy thing that Jesse Hogan is so proficient at making a lot out of a little.

Speaking of Hogan, his consistent contribution will be required, as the key forward stocks after him are thin. Chris Dawes is an honest trier but struggles to get his body right and is arguably not ahead of Pedersen – another trier – in the pecking order, regardless. Jack Watts may have to pinch hit as a third tall.

Max Gawn is another example of a strength papering over a weakness; if his output goes down or he gets injured, Jake Spencer is the next ruckman in line.

What to expect in 2016

Given where they finished last year, Melbourne’s draw could certainly be kinder. They will be happy to have potentially winnable double ups against St Kilda and Gold Coast, but would have liked to have played one of Essendon or Carlton twice. Two matches against Hawthorn, Collingwood and Port Adelaide (both games against Port being interstate due to Melbourne’s home arrangement with Darwin) look tough asks, however.

Another year into the legs of the tyros and some more experience in the bank is the idea. In what is likely Paul Roos’ last season at the helm before Simon Goodwin takes over, the idea will be to push for finals – regression from last season would be a disaster and leave doubts that perhaps the club isn’t that much further along than when Roos took over.

Best 22

B: Neville Jetta – Colin Garland – Lynden Dunn
HB: Christian Salem – Tom McDonald – Heritier Lumumba
C: Angus Brayshaw – Jack Viney – Dom Tyson
HF: Christian Petracca – Cam Pedersen – Jack Watts
F: Jeff Garlett – Jesse Hogan – Dean Kent
FOLL: Max Gawn – Bernie Vince – Nathan Jones
INT: Aaron vandenBerg – Ben Kennedy – Tomas Bugg – Alex Neal-Bullen

The verdict

Another year of steady improvement is likely on the cards as natural development takes place. They need to improve on last year’s seven wins – 10 would be a pass mark.

We have Melbourne finishing 14th.

Obviously written before the NAB Challenge judging by the absence of Oliver in his best 22 and the fact that neither Kent nor Harmes are mentioned in dispatches.  Despite the toughish draw that he acknowledges, I am confident that we will do better than 14th!