Simple stats to how close we could go this year

[deeko 937]

So once again, my post season optimism is at its usual all time high as I check the odds of us scraping into the 8 this season.

It’s different it feels this season however after reading some fantastic training reports, listening to players talk on the track (the couple I had the time to attend) and with a fantastic leader in Roosy.

We had Roos as a guest speaker once at a work function and everyone in our very multicultural team absolutely adored the man, even the ones who had no knowledge of the game. He certainly has a great sense of awe around him and has the ability to inspire anyone who he meets.

So it got me thinking that if he did get the best out of all our players, how close we would be to the cream of the crop.

I have gone super simple here basing the analysis on possessions per game and goals per game noting we were last for the 2013 season in both these categories.

My in depth 15 minute analysis is based off what I think might be our best 22 as follows:

Terlich Frawley Garland

Grimes McDonald Toump

Watts Jones Vince

Howe Clark Tyson

Hogan Dawes Byrnes

Jamar Viney Cross

Michie, Gawn, Trenners & Blease

For 2013, the top 5 possession winners are Pies, Bombers, Hawks, Cats & Swans. Average of the 5 is about 375. Melbourne averaged 318.

The top 5 goals per game are Hawks, Cats, Roos, Swans & Bombers average about 15.5. Melbourne averaged 9.5.

Now my best 22 above averaged 316 touches a game according to footywire and 9.6 goals per game (I added 10 touches and a goal per game for Hoges and 10 touches for Michie to make it balance out)

If that best 22 all play to there best and average the touches/goals of there own best season to date we would all of a sudden improve to a 370 possession team per game and a 15.7 goals per game team putting us right up there.

These 370 possessions don’t take into account for the natural progression of Viney, Toump or Tyson from last season to this as well which one would expect them all to average 4 or 5 more touches of the pill per game.

This is obviously as simple as it gets from the stats point of view and is very optimistic thinking but it isn’t impossible noting the players would simply be getting back to playing levels they have reached before.

So is it possible that we could be up in about sooner rather than later?

Or have I just wasted everyone’s with random jibberish?

[jazza 1,323]

no dramas or statistics for me

we will finish 7th or 8th

bookmark that all you non believers

got me membership

got the beanie

got the balls

got the passion

ready for the action

list looks good,

[CBDees 3,162]

!

So once again, my post season optimism is at its usual all time high as I check the odds of us scraping into the 8 this season.

It’s different it feels this season however after reading some fantastic training reports, listening to players talk on the track (the couple I had the time to attend) and with a fantastic leader in Roosy.

We had Roos as a guest speaker once at a work function and everyone in our very multicultural team absolutely adored the man, even the ones who had no knowledge of the game. He certainly has a great sense of awe around him and has the ability to inspire anyone who he meets.

So it got me thinking that if he did get the best out of all our players, how close we would be to the cream of the crop.

I have gone super simple here basing the analysis on possessions per game and goals per game noting we were last for the 2013 season in both these categories.

My in depth 15 minute analysis is based off what I think might be our best 22 as follows:

Terlich Frawley Garland

Grimes McDonald Toump

Watts Jones Vince

Howe Clark Tyson

Hogan Dawes Byrnes

Jamar Viney Cross

Michie, Gawn, Trenners & Blease

For 2013, the top 5 possession winners are Pies, Bombers, Hawks, Cats & Swans. Average of the 5 is about 375. Melbourne averaged 318.

The top 5 goals per game are Hawks, Cats, Roos, Swans & Bombers average about 15.5. Melbourne averaged 9.5.

Now my best 22 above averaged 316 touches a game according to footywire and 9.6 goals per game (I added 10 touches and a goal per game for Hoges and 10 touches for Michie to make it balance out)

If that best 22 all play to there best and average the touches/goals of there own best season to date we would all of a sudden improve to a 370 possession team per game and a 15.7 goals per game team putting us right up there.

These 370 possessions don’t take into account for the natural progression of Viney, Toump or Tyson from last season to this as well which one would expect them all to average 4 or 5 more touches of the pill per game.

This is obviously as simple as it gets from the stats point of view and is very optimistic thinking but it isn’t impossible noting the players would simply be getting back to playing levels they have reached before.

So is it possible that we could be up in about sooner rather than later?

Or have I just wasted everyone’s with random jibberish?

I cannot follow your logic but if it comes to fruition then I look forward to following the Dees September campaign at the "G">

Edited January 27, 2014 by CBDees

[deeko 937]

I cannot follow your logic but if it comes to fruition then I look forward to following the Dees September campaign at the "G">

Quick example:

Trengove for example avg 17 touches and 0.4 goals in 2013. However if Roos gets him back to his best (20.4 touches and 0.7 goals in 2011) then we improve.

Watts 14.8 touches in 2013 where he averaged 18.5 in 2012.

Clark 8.8 touchers in 2013 where he averaged 16 in 2009.

Obviously we need luck with injuries and our players back to there best which I hope the great man can do.

[demon-4-life 467]

Quick example:

Trengove for example avg 17 touches and 0.4 goals in 2013. However if Roos gets him back to his best (20.4 touches and 0.7 goals in 2011) then we improve.

Watts 14.8 touches in 2013 where he averaged 18.5 in 2012.

Clark 8.8 touchers in 2013 where he averaged 16 in 2009.

Obviously we need luck with injuries and our players back to there best which I hope the great man can do.

While this does make sense, where it will fall down is that the same 22 will not play every game together. I won't go into the intricate details of why its flawed, but going on your logic, a more accurate measure would perhaps be to replace 6-10 of that 22 with the next 6-10 on our list and then do your comparison.

I think you'll find our depth will be where we suffer compared to those top teams.