The Run Home

[Rogue 585]

I don't think our draw is "soft" - if the Dogs game and the Eagles games were at the G I'd be feeling pretty good.

Really?

#10 Richmond - two games

#13 Western Bulldogs - one game

#16 Port Adelaide - two games (both interstate)

#17 Gold Coast - one game

Throw WCE into the mix and I think it's a fair expectation that if we deserve a top eight berth we'll win most of those.

PS. Darwin says hi.

[45HG 1,539]

Darwin says hi?

Yeah, I'm by no means saying it's a tough draw, but I think considering where we're at, I don't really see it as "soft."

We have 10 games left (which, for some reason, is proving very difficult for me to keep up with), you say 6 of them are easy. By extension, 4 of them are not easy.

We have Geelong at Geelong, the Hawks the week after coming back from Darwin, the Blues and the Eagles (who are well ahead of us) at a ground we hate.

Richmond aren't an easy team for us, we're at quite similar stages of development. Whilst I think we should win both, it wouldn't be a suprise for two young sides to split two encounters at their home ground.

The Dogs are also, generally, a far more experienced team than us - especially at the dome

Port at Port in round 22 could be anything. You're well aware how rubbish we are there, but it'll be no excuse.

If I was a bookie I'd start us as underdogs in 4 games, evens in 3, and favourites in 3.

Obviously lots can change, but that's how I see it at the moment. Win the favourites, pinch two of the evens and we're in with a shot.

[Maldonboy38 6,093]

It all hinges on the next three weeks for mine. The Tigers, Bulldogs and Power at TIO are winnable games. However, making 8th is meaningless if you are not a serious threat of winning at least one final. The problem starts straight after these 3 winnable games - those three probable losses to Hawks, Geelong, Carlton could rob us of confidence and we would find ourselves losing a later, winnable game against Port or the Tigers again. Remember our late loss to North last year? We have a poor record of winning these kind of games late in seasons.

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[45HG 1,539]

It all hinges on the next three weeks for mine. The Tigers, Bulldogs and Power at TIO are winnable games. However, making 8th is meaningless if you are not a serious threat of winning at least one final. The problem starts straight after these 3 winnable games - those three probable losses to Hawks, Geelong, Carlton could rob us of confidence and we would find ourselves losing a later, winnable game against Port or the Tigers again. Remember our late loss to North last year? We have a poor record of winning these kind of games late in seasons.

I'd be pumped if we won the next three.

I don't think the North game really counts because we were out of the running. The Hawthorn game was where our finals chances rested and we gave it one hell of a crack.

Win the next three, even losing the 3 after that has us close to finals with West Coast, Richmond, Gold Coast and Port to come - I'd have us favourites to make the finals IMO. That's even to say we couldn't pinch the Blues game, the boys won't be happy with them!

Argh, too many what ifs!

[Rogue 585]

I see where you're coming from, but if we deserve to make the top eight we won't be impeded by this draw.

We play six games against teams who are outside the eight, and have won less games than us - including three games against the bottom two. I also think WCE, who will finish in the bottom half of the eight, are a much better team home at Subi/Patersons than they are in Victoria.

I guess it could be softer, but it seems pretty decent.

Darwin says hi?

I thought you might have been alluding to the fact we play a home game at Etihad, and I immediately thought of the fact we've 'sold' our game to Darwin.

I wonder how people will feel about the game being sold to Darwin if we just miss out on finals.

(I don't think it matters much this year, but I wouldn't want to be going there when places mattered).

[45HG 1,539]

It's a decent draw absolutely, probably the best we could hope for really. Just that when you say we play x amount of sides outside of the 8, I can't help but hark back to us ourselves not being in the 8.

[Hobbits's 17]

Richmond Away G - will come down to midfield essentially. our attack can stretch their depleted backline. rivers, frawley, garland hold a big key to a win this week. WIN.

Doggies Away ES - spew'n this isn't a the G. WIN - Midfield and defence the keys. Fingers crossed they're not up and running. Last game before the Bye.

Port Home TIO - cassisi back strengthens their midfield, preparation a big key to a WIN. too close to call. port will be confident in Darwin having beaten Tigers. LOSS

Hawks Home G - LOSS

Geelong Away Skilled - LOSS

Carlton Away G - LOSS

Eagles Home ES - WIN

Richmond Home G - WIN

Gold Coast Home G - WIN

Port Away AAMI ? will come down to round 24 .. LOSS.

that gives 10.5 wins at best. WIll come down to half a game or percentage. tipping the Tigers will end up 9th. B)

[45HG 1,539]

tipping the Tigers will end up 9th. B)

This thread is not for you - it's for people who want to go out on a limb...at least a little!

[biggestred 4,420]

to make finals we will have to break a few "hoodoos"

win at etihad sandpit stadium

win in adelaide

be consistent

oh duck it, im clearly dreaming. and even if by some fluke we managed to make it, what then? a trip to perth? woo.

[Rogue 585]

It's a decent draw absolutely, probably the best we could hope for really. Just that when you say we play x amount of sides outside of the 8, I can't help but hark back to us ourselves not being in the 8.

Yeah, for sure - I think you're right and I'm not suggesting that we're a shoe-in; simply that the draw will allow us to make finals if we deserve to, given that chalking up wins against other sides who are outside the top eight will be enough.

[Deemort 28]

I only give us three certainties, but I could easily see us winning against the Dogs, WCE and Port Adelaide the second time, which would put us on 11.5 wins. I doubt this would get us into the Eight.

Surely 11.5 would be a certainty this year? The top teams keep winning. I had a crack at the Bailey ladder predictor on the AFL site and 11.5 wins puts us in 7th 6 points ahead of 9th. Bad news is i had West Coast finishing 6th so we'd get smashed in the first game anyway! Finish 8th we'd play Sydney up there, I'd take that. So I reckon 10.5 will almost be enough this year.