Jump to content


Recommended Posts

Posted

The purpose of the thread should be obvious. Everyone always goes on about choosing the 'Best Available' when it comes to draft day. But what is best available? Even after a few years in an AFL system there is still a great deal of disagreement on who is the best available just on our list!

So we can see why there is such a wide variation between clubs in how they rate players. The clubs have different holes in their list and different game plans that require different types of players to be effective. Just look at how St Kilda rated Luke Ball, and how he has been rated far higher at Collingwood.

So why do some rate Watts above Scully? Why do some rate Frawley above Watts? Why do some rate Petterd in the top 6, while others rate him in the bottom 6?

I could make arguments that each of Scully, Watts and Trengove is better, on a 'Best Available' basis, than either of the others. Every club will always pick the best available for their club, because it's so hard to separate them purely on best available.

I rated Scully as my first pick because I think he's a 100% certain gold plated star midfielder. I pick Watts second because he's a freak and has the ability to be the most important player on our list in a position that's almost impossible to get, but I think that Scully's certainty to be a star and the importance of midfielders swayed me. But I could be easily argued to have Watts first.

So, if we had pick 1, who would you choose - based purely on "Best Available"?

  • Replies 155
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted

Tom Scully - I prefer certainty.

I think each player has a range of possible outcomes - this could be represented as a score out of 100. Scully has a high, tight range say 85-92. He wont be worse than 85. Watts (say 75-95) and Jurrah (say 30-95) have a higher maximum potential but a greater range.

Posted

Yeah, for the 3rd time, this teaches us that "Best Available" is subjective.

Not much else though.

Posted

old55:

That true that the variability is an important aspect. Risk management, if you will.

If Watts is 75-95, then Daniel Rich is a 80-85 and Naitanui is 60-95. I know you prefer the certainty in your drafting, so how would you order these 3 on draft day? Based on this Watts would be before Naita, but where does Rich - man's body and ready to play - fall?

E25:

Do some analysis and then join the thread. If you don't want to then leave the thread. Easy choice.

The adults are trying to talk.

Posted (edited)

I'd probably go Scully at "1" on reflection - because of him being a mid (which is of significance), even though I'd seriously be tempted for Frawley who I did list first on page one of this thread. Thanks alot AoB. :)

edit: good risk assessment old.

Edited by High Tower

Posted

old55:

That true that the variability is an important aspect. Risk management, if you will.

If Watts is 75-95, then Daniel Rich is a 80-85 and Naitanui is 60-95. I know you prefer the certainty in your drafting, so how would you order these 3 on draft day? Based on this Watts would be before Naita, but where does Rich - man's body and ready to play - fall?

Depends what "needs" you might want to assess....only kidding !

Watts, Rich, Naitanui - considering that killer left foot weighs heavily on my decision.

Posted

FWIW I've seen enough of Watts to be very confident he'll be exceptional. It's an impossible commodity to get really so he wins hands down for me. In his second year never having had a preseason and being bottom age he's shown more that Frawley at the same stage. He's got all the physical attributes and the only thing that would sway me would be his desire to play footy. I'm assuming he's got that.

Come GF day I know who I want in my team if I can only have one.

I reckon that is a fair comparison in having shown more than Frawley at the same stage/age. I'm pretty confident he's got the desire to play footy.

I think a 90 mid against an 80 KP (CHF) is almost comparing oranges and apples. But you can't underestimate a good CHF. Hardest recognised position on the ground.

Different set tasks apply though. I don't see one ahead of the other, they're both of equal importance. The engine room is where it all starts. But, if you've got both, which we seem to have, all the more better.

Posted

Having said that it's still much better than any contribution you've made lately.

Hannabal on the other hand............ :)

I suspect you're right. I'm pretty much done and dusted. I can't even be bothered arguing with a peanut like you.


Posted

Peanuts - I am thinking the scoring system is universal so that a mid at 90 is better than a CHF at 80 and vice versa - maybe that's impossible and I'm mad. Can you score current mature players out of 100 on the same scale - N.Riewoldt, Ablett, Sandilands, Hodge?

Bob - On the Rich v Naitanui question, I think with top 5 picks you really want to get a star - they're so hard to find, 85 is not star enough (while Scully's 92 is) so I'd take Naitanui despite the risk of a bust. I think that's what happened in reality with Rich too.

Posted

Peanuts - I am thinking the scoring system is universal so that a mid at 90 is better than a CHF at 80 and vice versa - maybe that's impossible and I'm mad. Can you score current mature players out of 100 on the same scale - N.Riewoldt, Ablett, Sandilands, Hodge?

Bob - On the Rich v Naitanui question, I think with top 5 picks you really want to get a star - they're so hard to find, 85 is not star enough (while Scully's 92 is) so I'd take Naitanui despite the risk of a bust. I think that's what happened in reality with Rich too.

Love the idea of a range. I think, if you want to use scores, you can definitely rate mature players on the same scale, although once they've peaked it probably becomes a bit more problematic.

Fascinated to hear what you and others see Morton's scale looking like at the moment.

Posted

Thought I would rate my top 10 from earlier in the thread.

Frawley - 80-95

Scully - 80-95

Jurrah -60-90

Grimes -75-90

Trengove -75-90

Watts -75-95

Garland -70-85

Morton -50-90

McKenzie -65-85

Petterd - 50-80

I'm open to some feedback and criticism if necessary.

Posted (edited)

Oh! ye'll take the high road and

I'll take the low road,

And I'll be in Scotland afore ye!

Thanks to HT removing my post from another thread this is out of place and without context.

Basically, you cannot accuse someone of taking the low road and tacitly imply you are taking the high road while using 'low road' means.

Paradox.

Word of the day.

Edited by rpfc
Posted

old: I think whether you want a star or you want the certainty probably depends on where your club is at the time.

For example, if St Kilda had the choice then they are probably going to want the certainty of getting a really good player. They're in their window now and would want a sure fire quality player. Geelong, too, never really went for the superstar 'Hail Mary' pick with their first rounders. They always went for the player that was likely to be a really good player and left other clubs to take the risks. It's no surprise that their team was so composed with the ball, as they kept taking good, solid, composed players. Their stars came father-son (Ablett, Scarlett) and then they just overcame teams with their huge spread of A graders.

On the contrary, Melbourne at the start of our development were pretty thin for potential stars. It turns out that Frawley has a chance, in retrospect. But we needed the stars and so we needed to take more of a risk to get there. So Watts/Naitanui were more attractive, since Rich is guaranteed A grade but unlikely to be any more.

Looking at the 'spread' system, I'd like to adjust it a bit. It's good to know what the risk is, but you'd also like to know what the mean is. Morton, according to HT's example, may be 50-90 but, on the bell curve, is he skewed further one way or the other? Is he more likely to be 85 or 55? His mean is probably 80, which isn't reflected in the spread.

Posted

old: I think whether you want a star or you want the certainty probably depends on where your club is at the time.

For example, if St Kilda had the choice then they are probably going to want the certainty of getting a really good player. They're in their window now and would want a sure fire quality player. Geelong, too, never really went for the superstar 'Hail Mary' pick with their first rounders. They always went for the player that was likely to be a really good player and left other clubs to take the risks. It's no surprise that their team was so composed with the ball, as they kept taking good, solid, composed players. Their stars came father-son (Ablett, Scarlett) and then they just overcame teams with their huge spread of A graders.

On the contrary, Melbourne at the start of our development were pretty thin for potential stars. It turns out that Frawley has a chance, in retrospect. But we needed the stars and so we needed to take more of a risk to get there. So Watts/Naitanui were more attractive, since Rich is guaranteed A grade but unlikely to be any more.

Yes but it's sort of self-regulating because I think the real prospect of stars, where you really want to pick one is at the start of the first round and by definition the "building" clubs have those picks and get access to Naitanui, whereas the "finishing" clubs have the later first rounders and get access to Rich. It's not a rule though, Geelong was building even though they didn't have pointy picks, and look at Cyril Rioli.

Looking at the 'spread' system, I'd like to adjust it a bit. It's good to know what the risk is, but you'd also like to know what the mean is. Morton, according to HT's example, may be 50-90 but, on the bell curve, is he skewed further one way or the other? Is he more likely to be 85 or 55? His mean is probably 80, which isn't reflected in the spread.

Yes a key addition - I had Jurrah 30-95 but where's the mean? McAdam or Franklin?

Posted

Thanks to HT removing my post from another thread this is out of place and without context.

Basically, you cannot accuse someone of taking the low road and tacitly imply you are taking the high road while using 'low road' means.

It wasn't just yours, there were a fair number irrelevant fwiw. Btw there is a general discussion board for this type of discussion.

Posted

Yep, Rioli was picked up there. But they had some making up to do after taking Thorp and Dowler as their previous top picks. Sometimes the risks pay off for you, but sometimes you end up with Beau Muston. It's possible, but it's very risky.

How would Hawthorn be if they'd realised they had picked up Buddy and Roughy who would be good, and then just played it safely like Geelong did by picking up guaranteed AFL midfielders with their first round picks? Selwood instead of Thorp. Higgins instead of Dowler. Shuey instead of Schoenmakers. I know it may be a bit of a stretch to do so, but it shows the different styles. Given that Hawthorn already had Hodge, Mitchell, Franklin and Roughead, maybe taking the conservative route would have been better for them. Maybe not.

Re: the mean. Jurrah's a very difficult one. He's one where you just have to trust your instinct on him and take the chance (or otherwise). He could have two spikes in the bell - one at 85 and one at 50!

Posted

Selwood was a risk also though, with perceived dodgy knees.

That's why he lasted til 7...


Posted

It wasn't just yours, there were a fair number irrelevant fwiw. Btw there is a general discussion board for this type of discussion.

I wasn't criticising your decision, HT.

As for arguing this 'outside':

I only visit two sites on this Board and I am pretty sure that others do the same.

Sometimes people need immediate feedback that moves into 'non-football related' territory.

I give it to them.

To-and-fro, and we're done.

Posted

I wasn't criticising your decision, HT.

As for arguing this 'outside':

I only visit two sites on this Board and I am pretty sure that others do the same.

Sometimes people need immediate feedback that moves into 'non-football related' territory.

I give it to them.

To-and-fro, and we're done.

In general you do. But it's not fact. IIRC you had a good thread in the general discussion about this time last year, did you not ? An Unreadable Compromise ;)

I can't question your contributions and feedback.

Posted

Looking at the 'spread' system, I'd like to adjust it a bit. It's good to know what the risk is, but you'd also like to know what the mean is. Morton, according to HT's example, may be 50-90 but, on the bell curve, is he skewed further one way or the other? Is he more likely to be 85 or 55? His mean is probably 80, which isn't reflected in the spread.

Fair point. I think Morton will turn out to be a decent player. For me, there is a bit of uncertainty though, hence the low value of 50. It could well have been 60/65 on reflection. I think he's good footy can be very good (ie. 90), it just remains to be seen with Morton tbh. Suck it and see type player and how well he can develop. If he doesn't fill out, if he doesn't become as accountable as we'd like when defending, if he doesn't contest the way we'd like him to, the '50' or '60' threshold may be valid. Maybe.

Posted (edited)

In general you do. But it's not fact. IIRC you had a good thread in the general discussion about this time last year, did you not ? An Unreadable Compromise ;)

I can't question your contributions and feedback.

The UC thread was due to my ridiculous posts of the time being a threat to 'straight' debate.

This year the ridiculousness is hidden inside of actual opinion and we are seeing some reaction to it.

We all need to loosen up but some need to realise that engaging in forums require your opinion to be parsed.

And some won't like it. And some will call you an idiot. Which isn't called for, but what also isn't called for is called the person who called you an idiot - a [censored], while not realising you are now a hypocrite.

Edited by High Tower
language !
Posted

The UC thread was due to my ridiculous posts of the time being a threat to 'straight' debate.

This year the ridiculousness is hidden inside of actual opinion and we are seeing some reaction to it.

We all need to loosen up but some need to realise that engaging in forums require your opinion to be parsed.

And some won't like it. And some will call you an idiot. Which isn't called for, but what also isn't called for is called the person who called you an idiot - a [censored], while not realising you are now a hypocrite.

calluses?

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Demonland Forums  

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    TRAINING: Friday 22nd November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers were out in force on a scorching morning out at Gosch's Paddock for the final session before the whole squad reunites for the Preseason Training Camp. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS It’s going to be a scorcher today but I’m in the shade at Gosch’s Paddock ready to bring you some observations from the final session before the Preseason Training Camp next week.  Salem, Fritsch & Campbell are already on the track. Still no number on Campbell’s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports 2

    UP IN LIGHTS by Whispering Jack

    Those who watched the 2024 Marsh AFL National Championships closely this year would not be particularly surprised that Melbourne selected Victoria Country pair Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay on the first night of the AFL National Draft. The two left-footed midfielders are as different as chalk and cheese but they had similar impacts in their Coates Talent League teams and in the National Championships in 2024. Their interstate side was edged out at the very end of the tournament for tea

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features

    TRAINING: Wednesday 20th November 2024

    It’s a beautiful cool morning down at Gosch’s Paddock and I’ve arrived early to bring you my observations from today’s session. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Reigning Keith Bluey Truscott champion Jack Viney is the first one out on the track.  Jack’s wearing the red version of the new training guernsey which is the only version available for sale at the Demon Shop. TRAINING: Viney, Clarry, Lever, TMac, Rivers, Petty, McVee, Bowey, JVR, Hore, Tom Campbell (in tr

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Monday 18th November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers ventured down to Gosch's Paddock for the final week of training for the 1st to 4th Years until they are joined by the rest of the senior squad for Preseason Training Camp in Mansfield next week. WAYNE RUSSELL'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS No Ollie, Chin, Riv today, but Rick & Spargs turned up and McDonald was there in casual attire. Seston, and Howes did a lot of boundary running, and Tom Campbell continued his work with individual trainer in non-MFC

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    2024 Player Reviews: #11 Max Gawn

    Champion ruckman and brilliant leader, Max Gawn earned his seventh All-Australian team blazer and constantly held the team up on his shoulders in what was truly a difficult season for the Demons. Date of Birth: 30 December 1991 Height: 209cm Games MFC 2024: 21 Career Total: 224 Goals MFC 2024: 11 Career Total: 109 Brownlow Medal Votes: 13 Melbourne Football Club: 2nd Best & Fairest: 405 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 12

    2024 Player Reviews: #36 Kysaiah Pickett

    The Demons’ aggressive small forward who kicks goals and defends the Demons’ ball in the forward arc. When he’s on song, he’s unstoppable but he did blot his copybook with a three week suspension in the final round. Date of Birth: 2 June 2001 Height: 171cm Games MFC 2024: 21 Career Total: 106 Goals MFC 2024: 36 Career Total: 161 Brownlow Medal Votes: 3 Melbourne Football Club: 4th Best & Fairest: 369 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 5

    TRAINING: Friday 15th November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers took advantage of the beautiful sunshine to head down to Gosch's Paddock and witness the return of Clayton Oliver to club for his first session in the lead up to the 2025 season. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Clarry in the house!! Training: JVR, McVee, Windsor, Tholstrup, Woey, Brown, Petty, Adams, Chandler, Turner, Bowey, Seston, Kentfield, Laurie, Sparrow, Viney, Rivers, Jefferson, Hore, Howes, Verrall, AMW, Clarry Tom Campbell is here

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    2024 Player Reviews: #7 Jack Viney

    The tough on baller won his second Keith 'Bluey' Truscott Trophy in a narrow battle with skipper Max Gawn and Alex Neal-Bullen and battled on manfully in the face of a number of injury niggles. Date of Birth: 13 April 1994 Height: 178cm Games MFC 2024: 23 Career Total: 219 Goals MFC 2024: 10 Career Total: 66 Brownlow Medal Votes: 8

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 3

    TRAINING: Wednesday 13th November 2024

    A couple of Demonland Trackwatchers braved the rain and headed down to Gosch's paddock to bring you their observations from the second day of Preseason training for the 1st to 4th Year players. DITCHA'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS I attended some of the training today. Richo spoke to me and said not to believe what is in the media, as we will good this year. Jefferson and Kentfield looked big and strong.  Petty was doing all the training. Adams looked like he was in rehab.  KE

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...