DRAFT PICK LOTTERY

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

Some of us are paranoid about losing the #1 draft pick. I say let's keep winning because #1,2, 3 draft picks do not ALWAYS turn out to be the best option. Consider the following draft picks over the years and take aboard what I am trying to say.

#79 JAMES HIRD, #12 Tim Watson, #16 Adem Yze, #9 Allen Jackovich, #56 DANIEL BRADSHAW, #67 Byron Pickett, #84 DOUG HAWKINS, #5 Luke Power,#9 Chad Cornes, #31 SIMON BLACK, #43 ADAM GOODES, #11 Lenny Hayes, #38 BRENDAN FEVOLA, #19 Brad Green, #30 JONATHON BROWN, #31 PAUL CHAPMAN, #64 Cameron Bruce, #18 Daniel Kerr, #67 Graham Johncock, # 8 JIMMY BARTEL. #13 Nick del Santo, #40 GARY ABLETT( jnr), #24 Steve Johnson, #7 Joel Selwood, # 7 Daniel Rich. Obviously, those in block letters are standouts in relation to their ability and their draft pick number. So everyone , stop sweating on Scully , Trengrove etc. You just don't know who is out there ready to help us win a flag. I think we can count Jurrah as a real bonus and we have Sam Blease and young Strauss waiting and ready to go in 2010.

Edited July 13, 2009 by bobby mckenzie

[The Great Pretender 463]

Some of us are paranoid about losing the #1 draft pick. I say let's keep winning because #1,2, 3 draft picks do not ALWAYS turn out to be the best option. Consider the following draft picks over the years and take aboard what I am trying to say.

#79 JAMES HIRD, #12 Tim Watson, #16 Adem Yze, #9 Allen Jackovich, #56 DANIEL BRADSHAW, #67 Byron Pickett, #84 DOUG HAWKINS, #5 Luke Power,#9 Chad Cornes, #31 SIMON BLACK, #43 ADAM GOODES, #11 Lenny Hayes, #38 BRENDAN FEVOLA, #19 Brad Green, #30 JONATHON BROWN, #31 PAUL CHAPMAN, #64 Cameron Bruce, #18 Daniel Kerr, #67 Graham Johncock, # 8 JIMMY BARTEL. #13 Nick del Santo, #40 GARY ABLETT( jnr), #24 Steve Johnson, #7 Joel Selwood, # 7 Daniel Rich. Obviously, those in block letters are standouts in relation to their ability and their draft pick number. So everyone , stop sweating on Scully , Trengrove etc. You just don't know who is out there ready to help us win a flag. I think we can count Jurrah as a real bonus and we have Sam Blease and young Strauss waiting and ready to go in 2010.

The problem with that analysis is that having the priority pick gives you two selections of which one is most likely going to be Scully, acknowledged by most as the best young kid in the country. Therefore, securing the pp improves the percentage chances of making rapid development in your favour. That's more important for our future than one win here or there. The club can't afford to blow this opportunity now because, with the concessions available to the new clubs, the chance won't come again for a long time.

[Its Miller time 6]

I think the 2 picks in the top 4 or 5 is more important than number 1.

Look at the current ladder 3 out of the top 4 teams have 2 years of priority picks. The other, Geelong have had the benefit of father sons which resulted in that rule changing.

Of course Freo have had there share of priority picks so it guarantees nothing.

If we miss out we have seen 2 and 3/4 years of pain for limited upside.

[Jarka 767]

Anyone else see the irony of the Jurrah comment? We only got him because we finished last

To all those people who are adamant that we shouldn't finish last and get the first pick I hope you don't ever cheer when Watts or Jurrah does something great, because then you would be a hypocrite.

Edit: There are so many errors to pick from this op. For example, Gary Ablett was a father/son selection, Doug Hawkins began his career before the draft even existed, most clubs passed on Fevola because of his attitude problems (and were proven correct), and the majority of these examples were from many years ago.

The draft is a completely different process now, anyone who can't see that knows nothing about football.

Edited July 13, 2009 by Jarka

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Some of us are paranoid about losing the #1 draft pick. I say let's keep winning because #1,2, 3 draft picks do not ALWAYS turn out to be the best option. Consider the following draft picks over the years and take aboard what I am trying to say.

#79 JAMES HIRD, #12 Tim Watson, #16 Adem Yze, #9 Allen Jackovich, #56 DANIEL BRADSHAW, #67 Byron Pickett, #84 DOUG HAWKINS, #5 Luke Power,#9 Chad Cornes, #31 SIMON BLACK, #43 ADAM GOODES, #11 Lenny Hayes, #38 BRENDAN FEVOLA, #19 Brad Green, #30 JONATHON BROWN, #31 PAUL CHAPMAN, #64 Cameron Bruce, #18 Daniel Kerr, #67 Graham Johncock, # 8 JIMMY BARTEL. #13 Nick del Santo, #40 GARY ABLETT( jnr), #24 Steve Johnson, #7 Joel Selwood, # 7 Daniel Rich. Obviously, those in block letters are standouts in relation to their ability and their draft pick number. So everyone , stop sweating on Scully , Trengrove etc. You just don't know who is out there ready to help us win a flag. I think we can count Jurrah as a real bonus and we have Sam Blease and young Strauss waiting and ready to go in 2010.

Ablett and Brown were father son selections who would have gone as top 6 pick in his year if they were not so connected.

Doug Hawkins a standout pick at No 84 and in CAPS too????? You have to be joking. A washed bitter footballer when he left Western Bulldogs who joined a washed up finished club like FItzroy in its final year. Geez you can build a premiership around talent like that.

Your effort only substantiates the reason why we need to get the best picks possible. You have sifted approx 15 years of draft data to cherry pick selections to substantiate your flaky argment while the true evidence that does come from the data indicates the importance of maximising access to top draft picks. Its a no brainer.

[beelzebub 23,313]

Interesting as the thread is noted as a "Lottery" .. Lotteries by their very nature are convoluted in a manner as to obviate any natural bias. Hence..a game of pure chance. Move to the AFL draft. Its no longer such a ambiguous turn of a wheel. Much effort and research along with observations goes towards selctions now. The manner in which the talent is showcased and scrutinised would suggest ts far more akin to a game of poker. All players know whats in their hands and whats in the River..and then its down to cunning and to some degree luck as to how you play the rest out.

Also like in cards.. you will see trends, runs etc.. and if you can card count ( Shhhhhh!! ) then you can appraise the odds before you. We now see such trends in the up and comers and there's much more of a science in the manner of picking.

Whomever gets Scully will indeed be lucky....but its no lottery !!

[demonate 0]

Anyone else see the irony of the Jurrah comment? We only got him because we finished last

I thought it was because of good recruiting wasn’t it a surprise pick?

[Adelaide Demon 0]

Anyone else see the irony of the Jurrah comment? We only got him because we finished last

I thought it was because of good recruiting wasn’t it a surprise pick?

Pick #1 in the pre-season draft.

[Adelaide Demon 0]

There's your #1s since the turn of the century:

# 2000 - Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda)

# 2001 - Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)

# 2002 - Brendon Goddard (St Kilda)

# 2003 - Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)

# 2004 - Brett Deledio (Richmond)

# 2005 - Marc Murphy (Carlton)

# 2006 - Bryce Gibbs (Carlton)

# 2007 - Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton)

# 2008 - Jack Watts (Melbourne)

They're all guns, except Deledio who hasn't come on as well as he should've but is still a very good player and has room for improvement, Murphy's getting better all the time, Kreuzer's still developing and Watts, we don't know yet. So it's basically a guarantee that you are going to at the least get a very good player, if not a great one.

Now picks 2 and 3 for the same period:

08 Naitanui Hill

07 Trent Cotchin Chris Masten

06 Scott Gumbleton Lachlan Hansen

05 Dale Thomas Xavier Ellis

04 Jarryd Roughead Ryan Griffen

03 Andrew Walker Colin Sylvia

02 Daniel Wells Jared Brennan

01 Luke Ball Chris Judd

00 Justin Koschitzke Alan Didak

For my money, there's a better chance of getting an A-Grader with pick 1 than there is with a pick 2 or 3. Of course you could get Judd, but you could get Andrew Walker too.

[e25 5]

Some of us are paranoid about losing the #1 draft pick. I say let's keep winning because #1,2, 3 draft picks do not ALWAYS turn out to be the best option. Consider the following draft picks over the years and take aboard what I am trying to say.

#79 JAMES HIRD, #12 Tim Watson, #16 Adem Yze, #9 Allen Jackovich, #56 DANIEL BRADSHAW, #67 Byron Pickett, #84 DOUG HAWKINS, #5 Luke Power,#9 Chad Cornes, #31 SIMON BLACK, #43 ADAM GOODES, #11 Lenny Hayes, #38 BRENDAN FEVOLA, #19 Brad Green, #30 JONATHON BROWN, #31 PAUL CHAPMAN, #64 Cameron Bruce, #18 Daniel Kerr, #67 Graham Johncock, # 8 JIMMY BARTEL. #13 Nick del Santo, #40 GARY ABLETT( jnr), #24 Steve Johnson, #7 Joel Selwood, # 7 Daniel Rich. Obviously, those in block letters are standouts in relation to their ability and their draft pick number. So everyone , stop sweating on Scully , Trengrove etc. You just don't know who is out there ready to help us win a flag. I think we can count Jurrah as a real bonus and we have Sam Blease and young Strauss waiting and ready to go in 2010.

There is an inherent problem with your argument - recruiting is a science that has developed exponentially since the dark ages of Doug Hawkins and James Hird, even since Adam Goodes and Jimmy Bartel...

It has now come to the point where a top pick has a much greater likelihood of being an elite player. Some slip through the net, but not many.

For me, the want to tank is not to necessarily improve the pick, but improve the number of picks. Whoever it ends up being, I want TWO top picks rather than ONE.

I might be greedy, but when its in the best interests of MFC i think i should be.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

Ablett and Brown were father son selections who would have gone as top 6 pick in his year if they were not so connected.

Doug Hawkins a standout pick at No 84 and in CAPS too????? You have to be joking. A washed bitter footballer when he left Western Bulldogs who joined a washed up finished club like FItzroy in its final year. Geez you can build a premiership around talent like that.

Your effort only substantiates the reason why we need to get the best picks possible. You have sifted approx 15 years of draft data to cherry pick selections to substantiate your flaky argment while the true evidence that does come from the data indicates the importance of maximising access to top draft picks. Its a no brainer.

In a bad mood today Rhino? I have merely pointed out that there are a lot of great players who have been relatively low picks but who have developed well. So Del Santo, Chapman etc etc haven't been good picks? You are overlooking the fact that kids develop at different rates. Many are early developers and don't go on with their promise. I guess I should have used our own JACK GRIMES at # 14 as a good example of what I am saying. Winning is a culture that LIFTS players! Do you begrudge their recent after match elation and celebration? I certainly don't.

[45HG 1,539]

If you can't see that getting two top 5 picks heightens our chances of selecting a quality player then there is no point arguing.

You're forgetting that we will still have picks later in the draft to select other players who may turn out to be gems.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Winning is a culture that LIFTS players! Do you begrudge their recent after match elation and celebration? I certainly don't.

Winning comes from have a list of capably skilled players to effect that outcome and the culture that emerges. Dont put the cart before the horse.

Over 15 years, your list of stars (excluding the past its and FSs) would not be sufficient to assemble a premership side. Its like going to the casino and try to lob your money on the winning number in roulette every time and relying on that to make your fortune in life. It is barely possible but the probability is........

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

If you can't see that getting two top 5 picks heightens our chances of selecting a quality player then there is no point arguing.

You're forgetting that we will still have picks later in the draft to select other players who may turn out to be gems.

What I am saying is I that I would be very pleased if we did manage to get those two top picks BUT not because we TANKED. If we try our best and still come last I will be satisfied. I still think we may only win ONE more game anyway. Freo at the MCG. Sad as it may seem, we will win the spoon again. The Dockers and Eagles will win at least two more. ( Home games of course). They even play each other the week after next.

We don't want to develop a Carlton- like reputation do we?

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

Winning comes from have a list of capably skilled players to effect that outcome and the culture that emerges. Dont put the cart before the horse.

Over 15 years, your list of stars (excluding the past its and FSs) would not be sufficient to assemble a premership side. Its like going to the casino and try to lob your money on the winning number in roulette every time and relying on that to make your fortune in life. It is barely possible but the probability is........

Rhino did you begrudge the boys having their moments of joy? Answer please!

[45HG 1,539]

If we win a flag in 5 years, and a large part of that is because we recieved two picks in the top 5, I couldn't give a stuff how we got them or what our reputation is.

[Jarka 767]

I thought it was because of good recruiting wasn’t it a surprise pick?

It wasn't a surprise pick for the clubs, except for perhaps on bigfooty. Melbourne had the first opportunity to get him.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Rhino did you begrudge the boys having their moments of joy? Answer please!

Its irrelevant to the argument you put forth about buliding a list of capable player from late in the draft.

And its misplaced that MFC would get a Carlton like reputation. Carlton have honed it over a number of decades. We have been that bad this year it would be a travesty of justice not to get the PP. We have three clubs that we have played or will play in a couple of weeks that have dogged it.

Do you ever think that the moments of joy for the players would be greater next year and beyond if they actually had better quality players to sign the song with and do so with a greater probability of doing it each week?

[Guest JACKtheRIPPER]

the saddest thing about this is were playing a sport and were worried about winning, thats a terrible system that needs to be changed.

[dee-luded 2,959]

What I am saying is I that I would be very pleased if we did manage to get those two top picks BUT not because we TANKED. If we try our best and still come last I will be satisfied. I still think we may only win ONE more game anyway. Freo at the MCG. Sad as it may seem, we will win the spoon again. The Dockers and Eagles will win at least two more. ( Home games of course). They even play each other the week after next.

We don't want to develop a Carlton- like reputation do we?

Bobby, I'll buy you a cake & you can eat it. If you finish it but yet still want it, then I'll buy you another one.

[H_T 3,043]

Anyone else see the irony of the Jurrah comment? We only got him because we finished last

Yeah, I saw it Jarka. Good point too.

You had to get some form of feedback.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

Bobby, I'll buy you a cake & you can eat it. If you finish it but yet still want it, then I'll buy you another one.

Thanks mate! But tell me something, are you IRISH?

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

Its irrelevant to the argument you put forth about buliding a list of capable player from late in the draft.

And its misplaced that MFC would get a Carlton like reputation. Carlton have honed it over a number of decades. We have been that bad this year it would be a travesty of justice not to get the PP. We have three clubs that we have played or will play in a couple of weeks that have dogged it.

Do you ever think that the moments of joy for the players would be greater next year and beyond if they actually had better quality players to sign the song with and do so with a greater probability of doing it each week?

Rhino, are you a politician? They never ANSWER THE QUESTION EITHER!

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Rhino, are you a politician? They never ANSWER THE QUESTION EITHER!

Re read the post and think again.

And also ask yourself the same thing as you avoided my question that you failed to answer which is also linked to my answer. And good luck

Not having a good day at all bobby.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

Re read the post and think again.

And also ask yourself the same thing as you avoided my question that you failed to answer which is also linked to my answer. And good luck

Not having a good day at all bobby.

I think I'm fairing better than you Rhino. I have read and re read your posts and in NO WAY have you indicated whether or not you begrudged the boys winning their last two games. You spoke of the future but not the present. As the old song goes, "ANSWER ME, ANSWER ME" . BTW of course I would like the team to be happy and successful in the future. Now I have answered you. Your turn.