QUEENS BIRTHDAY HONOURS TO THE DEMONS

[Demonland 71,586]

This week, we give the floor to a Collingwood fan DaVe86 who presents this preview of the game.

QUEENS BIRTHDAY HONOURS TO THE DEMONS by DaVe86

Collingwood meet Melbourne at the MCG for the second time in 2009 on Queens Birthday. The Magpies are coming off the back of 2 consecutive wins, which is the first time the club has managed this in 2009. The Demons, on the other hand, have lost their last six but clearly had the toughest draw in this period of any other club and, despite sitting at the bottom of the ladder, are actually playing some respectable footy.

The past six defeats have been to St. Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, West Coast (in Perth), Geelong and Adelaide (in Adelaide). Facing Collingwood this round, Melbourne has now played six of the top eight teams from last year in the past seven rounds, and three of the top four sides in 2009. That's a horror draw. Collingwood has played only four of those sides so far this year and has lost to three of them. So perhaps Melbourne is not going as badly as its ladder position suggests.

Most importantly, the clubs are playing in the traditional Monday Queen's Birthday clash…a game for which Melbourne has an uncanny ability to lift. I suppose for the Demons, this is the biggest home and away clash and their biggest chance to play in front of a large crowd. On the other hand, Collingwood has seemingly lacked motivation in the recent QB encounters, leading coach Mick Malthouse to declare the club was suffering from 'Blockbuster fatigue' following the game last year.

For Collingwood, which now has the top four back in its sights, Monday's match is an eight point clash. Let's face it, and I apologise to Demons supporters reading this, but in such an even competition, no team can afford to drop games against Melbourne. That should be the one game the top eight sides pencil in as a win every year. And fortunately for Collingwood, it gets to face the Demons twice in the first half of the year. These sides have played each other twice in the same year only on one occasion this decade (2007).

So this is a huge opportunity for the Pies to really play themselves into form and go into the mid-season break full of momentum and pushing for top four. A win would mean three on the trot, a feat which seemed unlikely a month ago.

But Melbourne will not lie down. The Saints had difficulty dispensing with the Demons in the first half, as did Geelong and Hawthorn, whilst Western Bulldogs only scraped across the line in a game the Demons dominated. So they will come out fired up and will most likely give the Magpies real headaches early. The test for the Demons is to sustain that sort of intensity over 4 quarters. At this stage they don't have the experience in their 22 to do that.

THE GAME

Melbourne v. Collingwood at the MCG – Monday 8 June 2009 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 79 wins Collingwood 139 wins 4 draws

At the G Melbourne 59 wins Collingwood 72 wins 2 draws

Since 2000 Melbourne 5 wins Collingwood 6 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 wins Malthouse 2 wins

MEDIA

TV Channel 10 at 2:30 PM (delayed telecast)

RADIO ABC774 SEN Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $4.30 Collingwood to win $1.22

LAST TIME THEY MET Collingwood 17.15.117 d Melbourne 10.4.64 Round 2, 2009, at MCG

A crowd of 43,176 turned up to the MCG to watch as the Demons dominated the first quarter and a half of this game but were simply unable to stretch their lead at any stage beyond around two goals because of some decision making errors, mostly unforced. The Magpies then got on top, mainly through the dominance of Josh Fraser who had 26 hit outs and 25 disposals in a game in which he rucked solo. Alan Didak, Dane Swan and John Anthony also inspired the second half surge that saw the Magpies run away with the game as 53 point winners.

Swan was the leading disposal getter with 33, whilst Didak and Pendlebury had 29 and 26 respectively.

For the Demons, Davey was probably the best player with 31 disposals, whilst Bruce gained 30 and Nathan Jones 26 (a day he would probably like to forget for the post match incident)

For the victors, Jack Anthony booted four goals, while Brad Green kicked three for Melbourne.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Matthew Warnock Daniel Bell

Half backs James Frawley Jared Rivers Aaron Davey

Centreline Jack Grimes Cale Morton Brock McLean

Half forwards Colin Sylvia Russell Robertson Jack Watts

Forwards Brad Green Matthew Bate Cameron Bruce

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney James McDonald

Interchange Kyle Cheney Paul Johnson Nathan Jones Addam Maric

Emergencies Jamie Bennell Lynden Dunn Michael Newton

In Kyle Cheney Russell Robertson Jack Watts

Out Jamie Bennell Brad Miller Stefan Martin

COLLINGWOOD

Backs Harry O'Brien Simon Prestigiacomo Shannon Cox

Half backs Nick Maxwell Leigh Brown Sharrod Wellingham

Centreline Brad Dick Tarkyn Lockyer Dale Thomas

Half forwards Scott Pendlebury Travis Cloke Leon Davis

Forwards Alan Didak John Anthony Heath Shaw

Followers Josh Fraser Dane Swan Shane O'Bree

Interchange Nathan Brown Martin Clarke Steele Sidebottom Alan Toovey

Emergencies Paul Medhurst Ben Reid Cameron Wood

In Travis Cloke

Out Cameron Wood

Collingwood has won the previous three encounters against Melbourne, and it won last year's Queens Birthday clash but prior to this it was Melbourne that had won four of these games on the trot. Brock McLean usually enjoys playing against Collingwood and always figures predominantly in the possession count. Whilst, he was quiet in Round two, but is now in much better form.

I always struggle with the Melbourne matchups. Their forward line is continually changing and unsettled, which in turn makes it very hard to set matchups. This has actually worked in the Demons favour in recent years as it has often caught Collingwood by surprise. Here are some possible match ups:

Maxwell v Watts – Think the Magpies should put the skipper on Watts first up and ensure that he is kept out of the game. The last thing Collingwood wants is the debutant to kick an early goal and get the fans into the game and give the Demons momentum.

Robertson v Harry O'Brien – Harry is the most versatile defender and should be able to blanket Robbo who has been kicking goals, but lacking his usual effectiveness on games.

Sylvia v Toovey – Think Collingwood should really keep an eye on Sylvia, who has really come of age over the last month. I said earlier that playing the best teams allows you to find out about your players. I think the Demons have finally found out that Sylvia has what it takes. It's been a long time coming for Demons fans, but his form has been consistent and he winning a lot of the ball.

Sylvia has been playing predominantly as a half forward flanker/midfielder. Toovey is potentially also an option for Robertson as he played on Ebert last week to great effect. However, I think we utilise Toovey's speed and spoiling ability to keep Sylvia out of the game.

Clarke v Maric – I think Clarke will start on Maric and look to run off him. Maric can be dangerous so Clarke will have to keep tight.

That leaves Collingwood with dilemma's over Prestigiacomo and Nathan Brown. If Miller is dropped, it leaves them no real opponent. I think Nathan Brown will be used on the resting ruckman. Jamar and Johnson can play forward, and without a real presence up there, I predict Bailey will rotate these guys up there. If Miller is dropped, then Presti could be used on Brad Green if he plays forward. However, I'm sure Melbourne would exploit this match up by pushing him into the midfield. Could this be a case for resting Presti??? Perhaps as he has been suffering shoulder troubles and would get a fantastic 3 week rest with the split round ahead. Or the other option is to play him on Bate.

Midfield:

O'Bree v McLean – Undoubtedly a head to head match up. McLean, like Sylvia has played good footy over the last month. He is Melbourne's in and under midfielder, and I think Malthouse will back in O'Bree to go head to head in the stoppages.

Pendlebury v Morton – Cale Morton has probably been Melbourne's best story this year. The coveted pick 4 last year has really come of age against the good sides and is establishing himself as a big ball winner with fantastic foot skills. The Demons have been using him head to head against oppositions best midfielders. From what I could tell he started on Montagna last week. Pendlebury and Morton are probably similar in terms of height, build and each have good foot skills. Could be a good matchup.

Swan v Moloney – Swan is coming off a record 48 disposals against Port Adelaide, so I doubt the Demons will allow him to play that loose. He also towelled the Demons up in round 2. Perhaps Moloney will go onto Swan and play him tight. Would be a good matchup between 2 tough nuts. I think if McDonald plays, he will get this job.

Thomas v Bruce – Dale was ok last week. Low on possessions, but got involved and helped swing momentum back to Collingwood. Bruce has not been in fantastic form throughout 2009, but is one to be watched none the less. He picked up 25 disposals last week.

Wellingham v Davey – Aaron Davey is having a good year. Was tagged tightly last week by Clint Jones and has had to deal with more tags of late. Its his foot skills that are worrying teams. Melbourne supporters are actually claiming he is the best kick in the comp at the moment. Given his incredible speed, Wellingham is probably the matchup here. Davey may try and get loose across half back, so I would be trying to keep him accountable.

Collingwood Forward line

Anthony v Warnock – Jack continues to kick multiple goals. He is yet to have a goalless game in his 21 game career. Warnock is a promising defender and may be called upon for this task.

Didak v Whelan – I think until Didak regains match fitness, he will be used predominantly as a forward. Whelan has made his career out of playing on the small forwards, and is best suited for this role.

Davis v Frawley – Davis is a tough matchup for Melbourne. Perhaps with Bartram in the side he would be the guy but I doubt he will be brought back in. Perhaps Frawley will get the run with job on Davis.

Grimes v Lockyer – Jack Grimes has been another good news story for Melbourne to come out of the last month. The first round pick (obtained from the Wood trade), has been quick to make his mark after suffering injuries in his first year and early this year. He has been playing loose across half back and getting solid numbers. Might be a good idea to put the dangerous Lockyer onto him and see if he can be accountable.

Ruck:

Fraser v Jamar/Johnson – Fraser single handedly destroyed Johnson and Spencer in round 2, but Jamar's return may unsettle Josh. I feel that if Melbourne are any hope, a lot of it has to come from their ruckmen. Typically Collingwood struggles against the bigger bodied ruckmen as Fraser is skinny. However, considering Josh is still slightly limited with his knee injury, his versatility around the ground has been slightly missing lately but I stiill think Collingwood would fancy themselves to win the ruck.

The Wrap-Up

Firstly, I'd just like to say to all Collingwood fans to be on best behaviour on Monday. Given it is a public holiday and against an arch enemy, there presents the possibility of a few drunken fans or aggressive supporters.

After the terrible incident in Round 2 where Nathan Jones' dad was bashed by an idiotic Collingwood fan, let's just hope that as a support group, we can display ourselves in a better light on Monday. I feel Collingwood supporters as a group have improved dramatically in terms of behaviour in the last decade. However, incidents such as this one undo all the good work. Unfortunately a good man was hurt and Collingwood's image was as well. I hope Mr. Jones is able to watch his son play this week and can feel safe.

Melbourne, as always, will fancy themselves against the Pies. They have nothing to lose, and a win will not effect a potential priority draft pick at the end of the year. I think they will be looking to this game to boost the confidence on the youngsters. Playing Jack Watts might also give a boost.

But ultimately I think Collingwood is beginning to kick into gear, and with a full list to chose from, the depth in the top 22 is far better than Melbourne's. Melbourne is playing good attacking football and is troubling all sides, but is unable to sustain it over 4 quarters. That said, Collingwood has not played 4 quarters yet this year.

It should be a good game. As I am no longer tipping Collingwood in my previews, I'll go Melbourne by 3 points.

[kallioota 0]

Also it is live on Southern Cross at 2 today