THE BIG QUESTION!

[Tigers Dayz 2]

I think it's suicide for the club to remain uncompetitive next year. For the sake of sponsors, members, bums on seats etc, Bailey must begin to show improvement.

I'm not convinced that picks 1-5 necessarily turn out better than 6-10+, over all. Of course you can name great players who were 1-5 draft pick, but you can name many more premiership winning players who were picked beyond 1-5.

Let's go for youth and not make expensive trades. Let's focus on winning with our crop of kids.

We need the club, firstly, to survive financially, then we need to develop our youth into the game plan our coaching staff want to implement.

[Guest Schtacker]

I'm not convinced that picks 1-5 necessarily turn out better than 6-10+, over all. Of course you can name great players who were 1-5 draft pick, but you can name many more premiership winning players who were picked beyond 1-5.

That's because there are about 16 (?) lower picks for every top 5 pick

I firmly believe that, due to a number of factors, the top of the draft is more accurate than it used to be... good luck picking up James Hird at 79 these days

Also, obviously, the big factor is that we get TWO top 5 picks not ONE 6-10 pick

Really the odds of us picking two duds in the top 5 these days is very, very low which almost guarantees us an at least very handy player

[45HG 1,559]

Wasn't Desy Headland No.1 - 2001.

edit: - 45hg...thanks...you got me...but wasnt it 2001?

Nah, poor form in '01 left him dropped at the end.

Ripper year in '02 though

[e25 5]

I think it's suicide for the club to remain uncompetitive next year. For the sake of sponsors, members, bums on seats etc, Bailey must begin to show improvement.

I'm not convinced that picks 1-5 necessarily turn out better than 6-10+, over all. Of course you can name great players who were 1-5 draft pick, but you can name many more premiership winning players who were picked beyond 1-5.

Let's go for youth and not make expensive trades. Let's focus on winning with our crop of kids.

We need the club, firstly, to survive financially, then we need to develop our youth into the game plan our coaching staff want to implement.

For the club, going forward I think it would help us a lot more if we did manage to be competitive, yet still managed only 4 wins.

I don't quite agree with your assessment that picks 1-5 are as good as 6-10+, but i think across the board its a bit of a lottery out of which of the first 5 or so taken will be the best.

I'd happily take pick 5 over pick 1 if it means we win more games and are a lot more competitive.

But its gaining a second selection near the top of the draft that i think would benefit us most, not necessarily the exact order.

Having said that, I can never watch us and hope we lose.. it always leaves a sour taste in my mouth no matter how much it MIGHT help

[titan_uranus 25,043]

Firstly, not your fault Schtaker, but how can there be an A&C option? How can Melbourne expect to finish next year with 1-4 wins and be able to sign up whoever we want? We've seen over the last 2 (at least) years that players just don't want to come to us. How could we possibly bank on drawing a 'star' to the club if we have another pathetic, bottom of the ladder year?

Anyway, we absolutely must try to move up the ladder next year. We need to win some respect back. We need to shrug off the association with mediocrity. We need to give supporters some hope, so that they show up to games. I don't want to have to put up with another year in the bottom 4.

[e25 5]

Firstly, not your fault Schtaker, but how can there be an A&C option? How can Melbourne expect to finish next year with 1-4 wins and be able to sign up whoever we want? We've seen over the last 2 (at least) years that players just don't want to come to us. How could we possibly bank on drawing a 'star' to the club if we have another pathetic, bottom of the ladder year?

Anyway, we absolutely must try to move up the ladder next year. We need to win some respect back. We need to shrug off the association with mediocrity. We need to give supporters some hope, so that they show up to games. I don't want to have to put up with another year in the bottom 4.

Carlton weren't all that crash hot pre-Judd. They truly were woeful before he came to the club, and i think he has lifted a lot of other players.

Theoretically we'd like to think we'd have the room in the salary cap seeing as we don't have to pay the huge salaries of all the stars we don't have.

And they'd have to be a mercenary.

But fwiw i think i agree with you.

[Guest Schtacker]

Carlton weren't all that crash hot pre-Judd. They truly were woeful before he came to the club, and i think he has lifted a lot of other players.

Theoretically we'd like to think we'd have the room in the salary cap seeing as we don't have to pay the huge salaries of all the stars we don't have.

And they'd have to be a mercenary.

But fwiw i think i agree with you.

Yes and obviously having high draft picks, which we will under option A, gives you currency to trade for good players

Whoever is next year's Ryan O'Keefe/Cousins people will be going 'must get O'Keefe!!11!" regardless of where we have just finished on the ladder, just want to know how many of these people we have

[rusty_kingswood 0]

I think it's suicide for the club to remain uncompetitive next year. For the sake of sponsors, members, bums on seats etc, Bailey must begin to show improvement.

I'm not convinced that picks 1-5 necessarily turn out better than 6-10+, over all. Of course you can name great players who were 1-5 draft pick, but you can name many more premiership winning players who were picked beyond 1-5.

Let's go for youth and not make expensive trades. Let's focus on winning with our crop of kids.

Couldnt agree more.

Hate to bring out the cliche' to stat a point but........." a team of champions will never defeat a champion team"

A winning culture is worth much more than early drafts.

[dee-luded 2,959]

i disagree

players need to know how to win

cale morton for instance has only played in 2 wins

players get used to losing

i would rather 22 players (or more) be full of confidence thinking that we are competitive and have some good wins under their belt than get one or 2 more young players

i think those young players could be superstars but if the 22 players do not know how to win, they will join the culture

i want success next year at the expense of draft picks

22 players with winning experiance > 1 (possibly 2) players at the draft

We must, get pick 1 or 2 or both, next year or we will definately shoot ourselves in the foot, & will end up back here again in 4 or 5 years time.

Playing in finals recently hurt the rebuilding of our list, & Dani her instructed the recruirers to go and get some more experienced types to maintain the winning feeling.

We played in some finals games @ the expense of growing our list, a little like Grant Thomas did @ the Sainters, he stalled that team @ around a No 6 team.

We were stalled @ a No 8 - 9 team. Visions of Grandeur...

I don't want 1 or 2 more young players, I want this whole draft of youngsters picked + next season as well, priority or not.

The future belongs to the youth to learn & grow with guidance.

But there is a reason why young people aren't in control of the world or the boss at work.

They haven't seen enough to gain the necessary experience to learn what it takes.

[e25 5]

We must, get pick 1 or 2 or both, next year or we will definately shoot ourselves in the foot, & will end up back here again in 4 or 5 years time.

Playing in finals recently hurt the rebuilding of our list, & Dani her instructed the recruirers to go and get some more experienced types to maintain the winning feeling.

We played in some finals games @ the expense of growing our list, a little like Grant Thomas did @ the Sainters, he stalled that team @ around a No 6 team.

We were stalled @ a No 8 - 9 team. Visions of Grandeur...

I don't want 1 or 2 more young players, I want this whole draft of youngsters picked + next season as well, priority or not.

The future belongs to the youth to learn & grow with guidance.

But there is a reason why young people aren't in control of the world or the boss at work.

They haven't seen enough to gain the necessary experience to learn what it takes.

enter dean bailey... so far he says all the right stuff, but i'm still waiting to see results of him being a good teacher & developer of talent (or rather, good at delegation and ensuring his asst coaches are performing as they should)

[Tigers Dayz 2]

Apart from Hawthorn’s premiership win this year with five top 5 draft picks, I don’t see evidence that picks 1-5 convert to premiership success.

2008 Hawthorn; Hodge, Roughead, Ellis, Croad, Franklin

2007 Geelong; Ottens

2006 WCE; Judd, Banfield

2005 Sydney Swans: Fosdike

2004 Port Adelaide: -

2003 Brisbane Lions: Power, Lappin

2002 Brisbane Lions: Power, Lappin, Headland

2001: Brisbane Lions: Power, Lappin

2000: Essendon: Heffernan

1999: Nth Melbourne: Grant

1998: Adelaide: -

In 2007, Geelong had 4 players in the 6-10 range; Mackie, Selwood, Bartels, Corey.

In 2006, WCE had no players in the 6-10 pick range.

In the past 15 years, and in addition to the above names, there have only been about 10 further premiership winning players who have been drafted inside the top 10 picks in the national drafts.

[e25 5]

Apart from Hawthorn’s premiership win this year with five top 5 draft picks, I don’t see evidence that picks 1-5 convert to premiership success.

2008 Hawthorn; Hodge, Roughead, Ellis, Croad, Franklin

2007 Geelong; Ottens

2006 WCE; Judd, Banfield

2005 Sydney Swans: Fosdike

2004 Port Adelaide: -

2003 Brisbane Lions: Power, Lappin

2002 Brisbane Lions: Power, Lappin

2001: Brisbane Lions: Power, Lappin

2000: Essendon: Heffernan

1999: Nth Melbourne: Grant

1998: Adelaide: -

In 2007, Geelong had 4 players in the 6-10 range; Mackie, Selwood, Bartels, Corey.

In 2006, WCE had no players in the 6-10 pick range.

In the past 15 years, and in addition to the above names, there have only been about 10 further premiership winning players who have been drafted inside the top 10 picks in the national drafts.

good research. Geelong had a few father-son picks, but other than that you are right.

I guess going by the evidence its not the order the players are taken in.

But is it how well you develop your youth or how well you identify and draft talent?

You have a point, but i don't think having early picks can hurt.

[Tigers Dayz 2]

good research. Geelong had a few father-son picks, but other than that you are right.

I guess going by the evidence its not the order the players are taken in.

But is it how well you develop your youth or how well you identify and draft talent?

You have a point, but i don't think having early picks can hurt.

Yes Shaft, I believe it is more about how well you identify players. Remember, Hawthorn had said they wanted tough, no-nonsense players. Jason Dunstall set in train the type of player the Hawks should draft.

I think the Roughead/Franklin drafts were lucky enough, in that they have both jelled.

Yes, early picks don't hurt, but I'm still a fan of a great coaching staff who work in a best-practice environment.

Again, lets work as hard as we can and forget all this crap about hanging around the bottom of the ladder for draft pick reasons.

[Neita3000 37]

This is why we only need to win four games next year.

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=3CDa74UishA

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=sTAm5DluQf0&...feature=related

Pretty simple really, win four games in 2009 and enjoy the benefits for the next 15 years.

[Tigers Dayz 2]

This is why we only need to win four games next year.

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=3CDa74UishA

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=sTAm5DluQf0&...feature=related

Pretty simple really, win four games in 2009 and enjoy the benefits for the next 15 years.

Butcher, a nice KPF in weight for age comp.

Scully impresses with peripheral vision, front and center, and ball getting.

I wouldn't hold back to 4 wins for either of them though. There is similar talent further down, if need be, and our footy dept is paid to find it!

[Guest Schtacker]

Butcher, a nice KPF in weight for age comp.

Scully impresses with peripheral vision, front and center, and ball getting.

I wouldn't hold back to 4 wins for either of them though. There is similar talent further down, if need be, and our footy dept is paid to find it!

Petterd Garland CJohnson

Rivers Martin Warnock

Davey McLean Morton

PJohnson Watts Sylvia

Wonaeamirri Butcher Miller

Jamar Scully Jones

(int from)

Moloney Maric Grimes Buckley Dunn Valenti Frawley Bartram Bell and picks 17,19,19,35,35

That's the kind of squad we could have complete confidence in

Yes i'll take one of those please!!! :D

[e25 5]

Petterd Garland CJohnson

Rivers Martin Warnock

Davey McLean Morton

PJohnson Watts Sylvia

Wonaeamirri Butcher Miller

Jamar Scully Jones

(int from)

Moloney Maric Grimes Buckley Dunn Valenti Frawley Bartram Bell and picks 17,19,19,35,35

That's the kind of squad we could have complete confidence in

Yes i'll take one of those please!!! :D

haha its nice to dream isn't it... but by the time scully or butcher would be getting a regular game we'll have at least one new ruckman and a few other changes across the list too.

Same with Watts probably.

And Grimes would have to be starting on the ground by that stage too.

[Guest Schtacker]

haha its nice to dream isn't it... but by the time scully or butcher would be getting a regular game we'll have at least one new ruckman and a few other changes across the list too.

Same with Watts probably.

And Grimes would have to be starting on the ground by that stage too.

Well that's going to be pretty much the side without even dreaming... if we win more than 4, which we won't, you can take out Scully

Yes hopefully someone comes up to remove Jamar, bloody hell we needed Warnock badly

The rest of the side I reckon will be excellent with the possible exceptions of Ozzie and CJ

Yeah Grimes should be in there but who do you drop? :D

Ps Forgot Bate and Newton

here is that side with their respective draft pick numbers. It's really not as low-weighted as I thought! Look at the backline, 2 rookies and the rest between 26 and 46!

Petterd(30) Garland(46) CJohnson(36 F/S)

Rivers(26) Martin® Warnock®

Davey® McLean(5) Morton(4)

PJohnson(29) Watts(1) Sylvia(3)

Wonaeamirri® Butcher(1) Miller(55)

Jamar® Scully(2) Jones(12)

(int from)

Bate(13) Moloney(12) Maric(21) Grimes(14) Buckley(53) Dunn(15) Valenti® Frawley(12) Bartram(60) Bell(14) Newton(15) and

picks 17,19,19,35,35 and Spencer and Cheney and dudes like that

[Tigers Dayz 2]

My only concern is physical strength and mongrel in that line-up.

Still, the new state-of-the-art weight room, and mental conditioning programs should fix that... oh, if.

[e25 5]

Well that's going to be pretty much the side without even dreaming... if we win more than 4, which we won't, you can take out Scully

Yes hopefully someone comes up to remove Jamar, bloody hell we needed Warnock badly

The rest of the side I reckon will be excellent with the possible exceptions of Ozzie and CJ

Yeah Grimes should be in there but who do you drop? :D

Ps Forgot Bate and Newton

here is that side with their respective draft pick numbers. It's really not as low-weighted as I thought! Look at the backline, 2 rookies and the rest between 26 and 46!

Petterd(30) Garland(46) CJohnson(36 F/S)

Rivers(26) Martin® Warnock®

Davey® McLean(5) Morton(4)

PJohnson(29) Watts(1) Sylvia(3)

Wonaeamirri® Butcher(1) Miller(55)

Jamar® Scully(2) Jones(12)

(int from)

Bate(13) Moloney(12) Maric(21) Grimes(14) Buckley(53) Dunn(15) Valenti® Frawley(12) Bartram(60) Bell(14) Newton(15) and

picks 17,19,19,35,35 and Spencer and Cheney and dudes like that

I think by the time we even pick up a Butcher or Scully, a few will be gone. Bartram, Dunn, Moloney, Bell, Valenti, Newton. Maybe Miller. Warnock? Cheney?

And McNamara might be in the side.

[Sir Why You Little 37,130]

Win as Many Games as Possible. Next years Draft is totally Soiled with Gold Coast Picks. Not woprth Bottoming out For. Learn a Win at all Costs Attitude. Our club must strive to accept nothing less than this, as was the case until mid 1965. We must get back to that way of thinking using modern tequniches

[Guest Schtacker]

Win as Many Games as Possible. Next years Draft is totally Soiled with Gold Coast Picks. Not woprth Bottoming out For. Learn a Win at all Costs Attitude. Our club must strive to accept nothing less than this, as was the case until mid 1965. We must get back to that way of thinking using modern tequniches

OH MY GOD

Have you read any of this thread at all? If you have, you have completely missed the important point on which the whole discussion is based.... I mean what the hell do you think we are all talking about?

How many times do I have to tell people something so simple

THERE ARE TWO MORE UNTAMPERED DRAFTS BEFORE THE GC COMES INTO THE COMP IN 2011

THE ONE IN A MONTH'S TIME AND ONE IN A YEAR'S TIME WILL NOT BE TOUCHED BY GC

WE WILL QUALIFY FOR A PRIORITY PICK AT THE START OF THE DRAFT IF WE WIN 4 OR LESS IN 09

Please, i'm begging all of you, remember this and don't commit thread pollution by coming in and stating things that are just plain WRONG

win 4 or less = 2 picks in the top 4

win 5 or more = 1 pick around the 5-10 mark

this is FACT. this is so simple to understand.

FFS

[45HG 1,559]

So by that you'd be saying it would be worth bottoming out if the draft wasn't "soiled with Gold Coast draft picks"

Well you should be fine if we do bottom out then, because they have no picks in next year's draft

[H_T 3,049]

[win 4 or less = 2 picks in the top 4

win 5 or more = 1 pick around the 5-10 mark

this is FACT. this is so simple to understand.

I know what you're on about... to add to that fwiw, it's quite possible 5-7 wins in a season could get you pick anywhere between 2 and 5. Its all dependant upon the make up of the bottom teams and how many wins they have. For example, Port will get pick 4 this year after having 5 or more wins. Or if there is only one side to finish below the 5 wins next year, 15th position can get the 2nd pick.

[Guest Schtacker]

I know what you're on about... to add to that fwiw, it's quite possible 5-7 wins in a season could get you pick anywhere between 2 and 5. Its all dependant upon the make up of the bottom teams and how many wins they have. For example, Port will get pick 4 this year after having 5 or more wins. Or if there is only one side to finish below the 5 wins next year, 15th position can get the 2nd pick.

Yes but that's splitting hairs a bit... the real factor is that there is an EXTRA pick

If we win 4 and come last, and the Eagles get 5 or more, we get 1+2

If the Eagles win 4 or less and finish above us they get 2+4 we get 1+3

If the Eagles win 4 or less and finish below us they get 1+3 we get 2+4

No other sides can interfere with this (well anyone can finish last and take a top pick but not TWO top picks, thats just us and the Eagles)

We could actually win 6 or 7 and finish 15th and get pick 2, or pick 3 if the Eagles take 1+2