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Everything posted by Dee Zephyr
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Nice selection Macca. Both horses resuming with "light" weights. I'll do the same, I've even placed a small amount on a win only multi with the 4 horses you originally short listed for your "Best" at Rosehill. I'd rather have a couple of dollars on a multi that loses rather than feeling the "Punters lament" if it comes through and not having a dollar on it. Just testing the waters on that one since you have presented it to us. Will do the each way on those 4 as well but the markets don't have place odds currently for a couple of the runners. Also, Goodfella has been scratched, only 7 going around in the Expressway.
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I've looked at the Caulfield meeting tonight and decided my best bet is at that meeting. Race 5 No. 12 - Eurack. Odds $3.40 3 runs for 3 wins. All runs so far have been in winter and on soft tracks. I remember watching those runs and being impressed. First start at Bendigo Maiden 1100m Heavy8 drew barrier 9 of 10 and won by 3.5L. (1:05:96) Second start at Sandown BM 64 1000m Soft6 drew 15 of 15 and won by 4.25L. (0:58:77) Third start Sandown 1000m BM 70 Soft5 barrier 9 of 11 and won by 0.2L. (0:57:49) Barrier 7 shouldn't be a concern as she has sufficient speed to get in the first 3 or 4. She progressed through the grades nicely and this will be her toughest test to date. Her fitness levels might not be full yet but if you look at her times they are nothing but impressive, keep in mind the soft and heavy tracks. Her latest time is quicker than some of the 1000m races her rivals for Saturdays race have been competing in on good tracks. The deciding factor to put her as my "Best" was the lightning 33.15 she clicked for the last 600m in her last run. She has a lethal letdown. Of her upcoming rivals No.3 Hay Bale ran a quicker 32.34 last 600m in a win back in July but that was on a Good3. No.5 Highland Beat ran a slower 33.39 on a Good3 also in a win back in July. Even comparing it to the last 600m(33.16) that Snitty Kitty (I think she wins the WJ Adams by the way) ran in her G2 Caulfield Sprint win back in the spring on a Good3 makes me think she might be above average by the time she fully develops. Looking forward to your "Best" fellas.
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It's amazing how sometimes a small field makes a race more intriguing, add Ace High first-up and it becomes even more so. Should be a beauty. Spot on with the above Macca, we know some horses go well first-up whilst others just go around for a "run" to begin a prep. Planning is key to these big carnivals, needless to say there's a lot of prize money to be won. Just out of curiosity I visited the Tab app, the 4 horses you narrowed it down to for your best bet..... Race 1 No.2 ... From Within Race 5 No.12 ... Kopi Luwak Race 6 No.9 ..... Bye See Race 9 No.8 ..... Don't Give a Damn combined price for an all up multi (win) $124.67
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They were previewing the opening round of the AFLW on SEN today and I'm sure I heard it's free admission to all games except the round 2 Freo game in Perth against the Pies where they will charge $1or $2 for entry to the new stadium.
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The Most Talented List According to Champion Data
Dee Zephyr replied to JAG007's topic in Melbourne Demons
Apologies if the following link has been posted elsewhere. Four elite players at Melbourne. https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/01/31/champion-data-ranks-your-club's-list-for-2018/ -
Very interesting Wadda. I've had a good look at the Expressway and I've determined it's quite a tricky race to find a standout. Out of the realistic chances according to the market, there are 3 horses with at least 1 start in their current prep. 2- Global Glamour 3- Memes 6- Goodfella First-up horses that can win(IMO) listed below. 4- Ace High 5-Trapeze Arrist 8- Addictive Nature I watched some replays of the fresher horses in their previous prep and some current trials but it's hard to gauge against a horse in a prep already. Case in point, Maccas thoughts on Goodfella. Yes, the horse is in a decent prep at the moment with some short let-ups in between runs, but the last two runs have been very good behind a quality galloper in Pierata. Im finding it hard to narrow it down to one standout in this race so maybe a trifecta around Ace High could be the ticket.
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A little bit of trivia or recent history about the above race. Shakespearean Lass was the winner of the W J Adams in 2016 and ran second in the same race in 2017. Not only was she a stablemate of the Zephyr but also out of the same broodmare. She was sold to a stud farm shortly after the 2017 race and let's just say the syndicate were pleasantly surpised with the offer. Sorry for going slightly off topic, I've only browsed quickly through the fields and the one that stands out at the moment Macca is Kopi Luwak in the 5th.
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May well be short Wadda but it's a quality galloper. I'm finding the links by Macca quite useful. Ace High had a barrier trial over 900m on the 21st of Jan and finished 5th of 9 by 1.2 lengths. It states, behind leaders, deeper and held together. It doesn't sound too bad, I might have to try and dig up the replay of that trial. Trials might not be some people's cup of tea, but they could prove useful if you wanted to follow a horse throughout a preparation.
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Update on Santos. Randwick barrier trial 29th Jan. Keep your eye on the widest barrier, yellow jacket. Dan Zephyr was our summer horse, Santos might be our Autumn horse. http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2018Jan29&VenueCode=MzI4NjYy&RaceNumber=16&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=Last400m
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Thanks Wadda. I was prepared to go with Brave Smash, thinking he could redeem himself but the list above is a little different to the market I saw last night. It looks like they have added some serious horse flesh in the current market. Neds is currently offering $12 for Brave Smash. I might have to play the waiting game for now and start concentrating on the Expressway Stakes.
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You're right Wadda, the odds were up when I had look at the Tab app last night. I just had a look again and no Orr market in the futures.
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Above average field in that race. Interestingly, the Group 2 Australia Stakes is often a good lead-up race for the Orr, the one where Mr Weir stated Brave Smash was a little "underdone." The Group and Listed races link is proving very useful Macca. Let the fun begin.
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Well done guys on the new name for the thread.
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I agree Macca. Dans part owner likes to bet on horses first-up ( with a lot of success mind you) but he only backs them when they have won first-up in previous preps. It's his little strategy, problem is, he only tells me about his winners after the fact. I've followed this a few times without success. Tempted to have a little flutter on 'Ace High', currently $26 with Tab.
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Dom Tyson's foot skills were sharp and polished; A new 3 word analysis of Dom perhaps?
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Scott Selwood could miss round 1 V Dees.
Dee Zephyr replied to Bring-Back-Powell's topic in Melbourne Demons
The lesser of the duckers..... -
Flemington has produced the best luck for me over the years Macca. It's my favourite track in general. I'm enjoying that link, i missed it the first time for some reason. You've also made me look at our fixture again, only 2 Saturday afternoons? Looks like Saturdays are taken up by "A Day at the Races."
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My goodness, what a calendar! When I first heard about The Everest I was a critic thinking it encroaches on the Melbourne spring carnival. After reading a few articles post The Everest the interest it generated in Victoria was immense for the sprint races. The planning was spot on, a fortnight later you have the Manikato followed by the Darley Classic a fortnight after that. The scheduling of the race didn't effect Melbourne bound horses. A race worth $10mil and it's not eligible for group status. Some think the Australian Racing Board should step in and amend the rules to give the race the status it deserves.
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That's exactly right Macca, you would be a wealthy man if you could double your outlay each time you had a bet. I did have a small each way bet on Werther with the profits from the tri. The horse seemed to be stuck out wide early then pushed up outside the leader. Glad he gripped on for third. $3.30 is terrific place value for a leg in a multi.
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Hi DV, id like to join this season. Haven't played SC for a few years though. Team name is On The Hunt.
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That was an impressive win by D B Pin Macca, once again your selections were spot on. Thanks to you I placed the same trifecta as above. Dividends aren't huge by any means, but look at the bright side, we collect on two trifectas.
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You're right Macca, Winx will be 7 next spring. The odds (Pre Noms) for the Cox have her listed a $3 favourite, which suggests it might not be a plan. Every other horse is at double figure odds. $3 for Winx would usually have people lining up to back her.
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Do you think we will see another horse in our lifetime win the Melbourne Cup 3 years running? I was a massive fan of Vinnie Roe, he was a quality stayer but he just couldn't topple the great mare. I attended the 2004 Melb Cup, the downpour fazed no one that day, that great race will be a long lasting memory.
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If the " A Day at the Races" kicks off and we add some more members contributing maybe we can start some kind of tipping competition. Whilst browsing the NFL thread Macca I noticed you ran a competition between a few of you. The Idea consists of a 3-2-1 points system where the members can nominate a meeting during a Carnival. For example, let's nominate Blue Diamond day. We all select a horse for each race on the day and selections must be posted prior to the first race. If time doesn't allow for people to browse all races maybe we can select the quaddie legs for the competition. Win a race and you receive 3 points, 2 for second and 1 for third. We could double the points for the main race of the day. This doesn't have to be for financial purposes just some "In House" fun. The winner on the day can have bragging rights and decide on a change of avatar of the last placegetter or something along those lines. I know there's a bit going on currently with the name changing of the thread and putting the word out to other horse racing enthusiasts but maybe something to keep in mind. Thoughts?
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" A Day at the Races " gets my vote. I am unsure where they will head with Santos during the Autumn. The following link is his latest run. A couple of points out of the race. Keep your eye on the far left of screen (widest barrier/yellow silks), begins awkwardly and is out wide albeit with cover. In the straight it looms as a winner but around the 200 metre mark is when the horse suffered the leg injury. Connections were mostly pleased at how the horse managed to fight on to the finish after sustaining the injury. http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2017Oct14&VenueCode=MjY4MTI4&RaceNumber=2&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay