Lucifers Hero

This year a lot of goals are being scored by end-to-end ball movement from kick-ins after a point. One of the rule changes that hasn't had much attention is that the defender must 'stand' (ie not move) 10 mtrs from the top of the goal square; previously it was 5. This plus the 'stand' rule gives the kicker a lot more space and time to attack and he can get the ball to the center (the 'fat' part) where the width makes it harder for the opps to defend. If the ball is marked the 'stand' rule again makes it easier to attack. If it comes to ground there is less chance of a stoppage as players are spread and fast players (eg Langdon, Hunt) can turn on their jets. If the opp mark it is far less likely they will score than if the mark was taken at around the 50m line and it gives defenders time to set-up. Or the kicker can kick short (to eg Salem, Rivers) who can then kick over the pack and link up with Langdon or Brayshaw. Not many points have been scored in our last two games so not a good sample but it looked to me we weren't kicking to Max all the time at kick-ins and using our smaller defenders and wing men much more effectively after kick-ins. Without that extra 5mtrs at kick-ins I'm not sure the ground would be so open and end-to-end goals so frequent. Will be interesting to see how it pans out in the next few weeks as more teams wake up to the advantages of that extra 5mtrs. Sydney is a good example of making the most of this little rule change.

I think Port missed what Chris Scott called the 'paradigm shift'. "I think if you miss the paradigm shift, you can be left behind very, very quickly... we have got to find a way through and when we find our way through this little patch at the moment we have got to find a way to be a whole lot better." I believe he is referring to the impact of the new rules. And it looks to me that last year's Prelim finalists (Port, Lions, Cats and Tigers) have missed that impact. Perhaps believing their system/game plan was so good it didn't need much change. They are now playing 'catch-up'. Hardwick said something similar about needing to learn from their Sydney defeat and make changes to the way they go about it. It reminds me of us not adjusting to the impact of the 6-6-6 paradigm shift. Fortunately, this time we did anticipate the rules impact and have adjusted and practiced our game plan. I think it will take those teams 3-6 weeks to adjust but even then they will be experimenting with what works. Fortunately we play Cats and Tigers in the next few weeks so we may have a bit of an advantage which is why I believe we can be 6-0 or 5-1. By mid-year the best teams will have adjusted and the second half of the season will be more even. And as you say we will need to be better to match Eagles and other teams when they catch up.

Coaches votes: Split: 5/5 Gawm 4/4 Green 3-0 or 3-0 or 2+1 Viney, Picket, Petracca 2/0 Lever 1/0 Langdon Again first 2 unanimous. The rest not so. Of Viney, Pickett, Petracca, Lever and Langdon only one got votes from both coaches! Bit surprised to see Lever amongst the votes as he had a few clangers and cost us goals. Leader Board Oliver and Gawn in the top 5. Tex has flown past the rest 28 Taylor Walker ADEL 19 Dustin Martin RICH 16 Darcy Moore COLL 16 Clayton Oliver MELB 15 Max Gawn MELB

My concern with Melksham in is that his recent past shows no fwd pressure which in turn puts our mids and defenders under pressure when opps quickly move the ball out of our fwd 50. In the last 3 weeks our fwd pressure has been excellent and not sure we want to disrupt that. If he comes in I would a swap for Jones but that is unlikely given he is so close to his 300. Edit Reason for suggesting a swap for Jones is that I don't want to upset the fwd pressure we currently have by putting Melksham there. He will be more value kicking into the fwd 50. But as I said it is unlikely. Someone else will probably make way. I do like that he has been kept waiting.If Melksham does come in I hope he knows what the non-negotables are.

Hawks vs Cats today. Would be happy to see Hawks win just to watch Scott fume as the go 1W -2L and their season start to wobble. But then they will come out with all guns blazing next week to make amends. I reckon we can match their fury next week so will be barracking for Hawks.

I've believed all preseason, od: Posted that we could be top 4 at end of H & A. Still believe that. Amidst the preseason doom and gloom on here and injuries as early excuses for a poor 2021, I predicted we would be 3 - 0. Agree with you re a tall fwd but looking at the next 3 weeks none of Cats, Hawks or Tigers have a strong back 6 right now so lack of that tall shouldn't hurt us as much as if we were playing Eagles ,Pies or Power in the next 3 weeks. Next 3 weeks are a great opportunity to bank a few more wins before we meet the in-form sides. By which time I hope we have either/both Weideman/B 'Brown availalble. So 6 -0 or 5 - 1 is definitely achievable.

While we are talking 'great pick-ups': The pick 2 (Josh Kelly) for Salem, Tyson and Hunt trade is looking pretty good right now. Even tho we lost Tyson for Preuss who was traded to GWS, their pick for him helped us get B.Brown and either Bowey or Laurie. (iirc, GWS pick 33 for Preuss went to North in the Brown deal and we got pick 28 back which we used for Bowey or Laurie). Kelly is a great player but I would say we have done very well from the trade. Desperately hoping Salem stays. And while doing a postmortem on recruiting - how many people wanted us to pick Cody Weightman instead of Kozzie? Weightman may yet become a very good player but Kozzie is a rare talent. Imagine if we took Weightman and Bulldogs got Kozzie.

A week ago I posted the only thing to beat us vs GWS was ourselves and what was happening 'between the ears. Answer: Plenty good is happening - We came to play; we came to win. We didn't take our foot off the pedal. We played 120 mins of committed football We didn't let their early run of goals daunt us or to drop our heads. We fought back. We fought back in the last quarter again when they had a bit of a run. We know how to steady the ship. We are less likely to panic Three weeks of consistency and resilience. Great foundations on which to build the rest of the season. I'm guessing the belief by the players would be growing by the week; no matter what the opps throw at us we can deal with it and get over the line. That is the new Melbourne. Next step: Ruthless defeat of the opps! Yes, we have tougher opps over the next three weeks but there is untold benefit in the growth 'between the ears' of the last 3 weeks. We can easily be 6 - 0 or 5 - 1.

Anyone know if there was/is an intra-club match this weekend? Difficult for this weeks non AFL selected players to make a case for selection, especially those that are regular/semi-regular AFL players: Melksham, Hibberd, Smith, Petty etc.

Hopefully, it lulls Ess into a false sense of security and a belief that they have a great game plan. They have no defence and strong defence is what will define games this season. They are still a bottom six side.. The next three games should bring them back down to earth: Swans, Lions, Pies. With a bit of luck they will be 1W:5L

This is like when 6-6-6 was introduced - the teams that adapted and practiced their game plan changes for the new rules (man on the mark, fewer interchanges and kick-in marker set further back) will reap the rewards with very good early wins. It will take time for teams that haven't adapted game plans, to catch up by which time their season may be lost. Most of last year's finalists look to be in the slow to adapt category. Bulldgos, Swans, Adelaide Eagles and Demons seem to have adapted well. Good opportunity for us to bank a few more early wins before competitors catch up.

Something about counting chickens...comes to mind ?

I hope not.

I share your concern jr. Bonds are a niche market. More so the Corporate Bond (not Government Bonds) which ABE deals in. ABE started in 2015. After a bit of googling I haven't found anything substantial about their performance. Their 2020 report reads like a marketing spiel. AGMFY20.pdf. What they get out of the exposure: my reading of their website is that they are targeting retail investors, in particular those near or at retirement age. I suspect there would be lots of those in the mfc member ranks. Hopefully, folks do their due diligence before investing in any new product with ABE or anyone else.

There might be lots of reasons why staff can't respond to all emails/phone calls. fwiw, may I suggest this isn't the thread to air grievances. If it is Clare, give her time to settle in and assess where things are at.

Fox 'Man on the Mark' segment is reporting we have a replacement for Ryan Larkin, to be announced after Easter. "...Hawthorn’s Clare Pettyfor has won the race for the coveted position ahead of a string of highly credentialed candidates. She will leave the Hawks after six years". A little bit of 'googling' shows her sister Kathleen is a physio at MFC and is married to Alex Sakadjian who spent a number of years in our Sports Science team. So there is a strong mfc connection for Clare. If Clare's appointment is correct, then welcome aboard the Demons train! Well done MFC.

2021 is Jones' second 1 year contract. A lot of players at both ends of their careers play for minimum wages plus match payments. Not saying that applies to Jones. But we shouldn't be looking at older players nor younger players/rookies to free up much sal cap, if any at all; unless we want a list of approx 36-37 players instead of 42.

Why would we want Kelly c 2021? A shadow of his former self. And, we would need to part with some very good players to free up enough cap space for him. Instead use the money to keep Oliver, Salem, Petracca, Kozzie, Jackson etc.

Reid accepts his two week suspension reid-accepts-suspension An interesting bit of info: “Once the incident was classified as a bump rather than a brace, our advice was that there were limited options for us to challenge the suspension successfully". As long as the MRP is consistent (yeah, I know, it is unlikely) clubs know the rules and less likely to challenge suspensions which result in concussion.

Reid has accepted his two week suspension so is an out for our game this week.

Not to mention the fixture impact of covid related border issues already affecting the AFL. Not the ideal time to go from VFL/NEAFL leagues to an Eastern League. We may end up changing the fixture and Vic teams play Vic teams for a few months as they did with the early rounds of AFLW.

It will be interesting to see if either Hibberd or Melksham come back this week, especially as there is no Casey practice match for them to improve match fitness. If they don't, it gives a very strong message that regardless of experience or past performance they need to force their way into the side rather than be automatic starts. Having said that I would be surprised if Melksham doesn't play vs GWS - not so sure about Hibberd.

salary-cap-score Salary cap space after 2021 HAVES (with room): Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Port Adelaide. HAVE-NOTS: Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood, Melbourne, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney. SOME WRIGGLE ROOM: Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions. UNCLEAR: St Kilda, Sydney Player payments, including ASAs, are $13,165,950 in 2021, a cut of 9 per cent due to the pandemic. Player payments for 2022 are slated to be $14,769,322 if there are no cuts. All subject to the current contracts and without factoring in recruiting at season’s end or re-negotiations. We have some expensive traded-in players with 2-4 years to go on their contracts. Add the sal cap reductions and the AFL advice to clubs to transfer the reductions from the near term to later years ie back end the contracts. Not a fan of too many back-ended contracts as it is easy to get into strife - see Collingwood circa 2020. These factors will make our sal cap tight for a few years yet. Not sure our 'lesser-lights' and older players, whose contracts expire this year would be on big coin so I don't see much wriggle room there. So I can see why negotiations with Oliver will take time (ditto with Salem).

No whispers yet from Geelong re appealing Rohan's 2 week suspension. Gone to ground after last week's 4-day pro Danger media campaign failed spectacularly. They should read the writing on the wall and know that any head high contact that results in concussion will be shown no mercy. See Sam Reid's 2 match suspension for bump on Fye. Edit: Fox are reporting that Geelong have accepted Rohan's 2 week suspension. Wise.

Coaches votes: 9 Christian Salem (MELB) 9 Clayton Oliver (MELB) 5 Max Gawn (MELB) 3 Kysaiah Pickett (MELB) 2 Christian Petracca (MELB) 1Jack Steele (STK) 1 Adam Tomlinson (MELB) Split: 4/5 for Salem and Oliver 2/3 for Gawn 3 for Kozzie 2 Petracca 1 Steele 1 Tomlinson Coaches saw the Salem, Oliver and Gawn performances similarly. The other 4 were quite diverse. Good to see Salem get recognition for a great game. Not easy to get votes as a defender. LEADERBOARD 19 Dustin Martin RICH 18 Taylor Walker ADEL 16 Darcy Moore COLL 16 Clayton Oliver MELB 12 Dan Houston PORT