Macca

Again, if there are only 20-25 A grade players out of a sample size of 100 top ten picks, then that is a 1 in 5 strike rate or at best, a 1 in 4 strike rate. So in order to attain a player of say, Dangerfield's quality, a club needs 4 or 5 chances at it. And even then there are no guarantees. We at Melbourne know that all too well. Percentage-plays based on probability factors will be viewed more closely with regards to drafting down the track. It might take a while but eventually it will happen. Then, the true value of a draft pick will be seen. Back on topic ... if Lever turns out to be A grade quality and plays mostly at that standard over a 10 year period for us, we've snared an absolute bargain. As it stands, he's a very good player already.

How many genuine A graders are in the top 10 picks on average? Say, over a 10 year period. Many would be surprised how few there actually are. Maybe 20-25 out of a 100. That's 1 in 5 or at best, 1 in 4 (top 10 picks) That's just the reality of the actual results. I created a thread about it a few years ago. Within the OP I provide a link to all the ND's from 2000 through to 2009. So there's the 10 year sample size. How many genuine A graders? Forget B grade players or 150 game players ... only genuine A graders for the sake of the exercise. Oliver is well on his way to becoming a genuine A grade player so that's why I wouldn't trade him easily ... let's all hope that Lever ends up the same. Here's that thread (again) ... Bad Luck or Bad Recruiting

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'Almost certainly' is what I wrote not 'almost' If his form continues on the trajectory that he's displayed so far, we're on an absolute winner. For what it's worth, I wouldn't trade Oliver for 3 top 10 picks. And it's line-ball whether 4 top 10 picks would be enough for a player of Oliver's quality. As many others here have said, draft picks are massively overrated. And the facts and results of drafting bear out those views. Adelaide pushed for fair compensation because they know how good Lever can be - Lever's exposed form is at senior AFL level, not junior football. But as previously stated, I still believe we won out on the deal.

So let's get this straight ... You're unsure whether he'll play 10 years for us whilst I reckon he almost certainly will. Our discussion is therefore over.

What are you talking about? When he plays well for us we will keep extending his contract. So me speculating that he'll play 10 years for us is hardly a stab in the dark. If you reckon we've lost out on the deal write an email to the club outlining what you believe we should have done.

So you reckon he'll be gone after 4 years? Or perhaps after he proves his worth we'll just keep extending his contract?

So it's pick 10, pick 14 next year (assuming we play finals next season and win at least 1 final) and a 4th round pick next year (a negligible pick) to Adelaide. And it's a 10 year top quality CHB (Lever) for us along with pick 35 this year and a 3rd round pick next year. I call that a major win and way unders. But there again, I value a draft pick in real terms as only about half it's value. I also reckon that the real recruiting happens after the 1st round of picks. We might end up being well placed to unearthing those diamonds in the rough. Most first round picks are predicted because of the stellar form of those first round picks in junior footy but ... it's an absolute fact that close to half of all 1st round draft picks are busts. And we've had way more than our fair share of those busts. A great move by the club and I fully endorse the move. Kudos.

Isn't Eddie pushing for a round 1 clash against us? Combining that game and the QB clash in a gate sharing arrangement was the pitch. That appeals as well as a home game against the Bombers immediately following the ANZAC eve clash. The ANZAC eve fixture (our home game this time) against the Tigers will be a beauty too. If all that happens the club can fill their boots with 3 blockbuster home gate match-ups before the end of April (round 1 & QB to be a shared gate?) Also, we need to get on free-to-air more.

Goodes pick 43 Chapman 35 Black 31 Hird 64 Grant 106 There's a stack more. Another way of looking at is that about half of all picks are busts. And half of all 1st round draft picks are busts in terms of expectations. I'd argue that the value of any pick could be halved - if we work on the results of drafting from a historical point of view. But we're fans and we're wired with hope, faith, dreams and questionable belief systems.

ESPN FC Podcast ... The USA Fails to Qualify for Russia 2018 - The Recriminations Begin

Did a quick calculation using the search feature and if all the Jack Watts threads were merged, we'd be sitting on 760 pages (or thereabouts) or ... about 19,000 posts. We're rivaling Tolstoy. In more ways than one.

Quite an eventful morning as it turned out ... Argentina end up finishing 3rd after initially being a possibility of missing out completely Chile do miss out completely (they are ranked no.5 in the world rankings) The USA fail to qualify after a forgettable campaign. Losing their last qualifying game to Trinidad & Tobago will have heads rolling. Panama qualify outright after scoring a 'very late goal' against Costa Rica Honduras book a playoff berth against the Socceroos after coming from behind (twice) and defeating Mexico. Peru & Colombia played out a draw which turned out to be an 'ideal' result for both teams. Next up for Peru are the plucky Kiwi's Meanwhile, over in Europe, the Dutch fail to qualify ... the Netherlands really are short on star quality these days but they'll be back soon enough. And how about those Icelanders? Won their group outright and therefore get direct qualification for Russia 2018. I've worked out that we'll play Honduras on Friday the 10th November just after noon AEDT. (might be 1.00pm or 2.00pm our time) We're 17 hours ahead of their time zone. And the return leg will almost certainly be on Tuesday the 14th November in Sydney. 8pm kick off.

As the yanks are apt to say, Friday's game could be a barn-burner. I'll go for a scoreline of 32 - 29 in the Panthers favour ... home field decides it. If the game was played in Philly, reverse the scores.

Yeah, you're right Dappa, it's finding that 3rd road winner that's tricky. However, would any of us be surprised if the Pats or Packers lost? Seeing we're on a new page, here are the games again ...

Leaderboard in the comp 4 - Dappa Dan 3 - JV7, Clintosaurus 1 - Go the Biff, Macca 0 - The usual suspects Bill Simmons' 'Guess the Lines' podcast Just the 1 point on offer this week but we do play for 2 points in all the odd-numbered weeks (Week 17 is worth 3 points) The Thursday night match-up holds a lot of interest and whilst the Pats are heavy favourites against the Jets and should win, the game might be close, all the same. Same deal for the Packers/Vikes game although Green Bay are only 3.5 favs. Not sure I can trust the Lions or Tampa either. Rams @ Jags is another decent match-up.

Never trust a soccer score app Honduras it is then! The USA will be kicking themselves for missing out. A couple of 'unusual' finishes to those Concacaf games ... hmmmm

Next up is the USA by the looks of it ... that's a challenge Edit ... turns out we play Honduras next

Got through by the skin of our teeth ... 2 - 1. Syria hit the woodwork in the last minute from a set piece. Cahill scored twice ... both times with headers. The ageless warrior Now for Panama, Honduras or the USA.

Leaderboard in the comp 4 - Dappa Dan 3 - JV7, Clintosaurus 1 - Go the Biff, Macca 0 - The usual suspects The winners 'curse' seems to have returned @Gorgoroth ... in your case, the curse was delayed for a year by the looks of it We like our curse's at the Demons. Still and all, it ain't over by a long shot.

Gary Hardeman could only ever manage a best placing of 3rd in our B & F. And he was an absolute gun footballer in a poorly performed team. Was runners-up in the '74 Brownlow medal to boot. I was initially quite surprised by Hibberd's tally and then recalled that backmen often get marked disproportionately hard. They at least recognised Jetta's terrific year. Like @P-man I had Hibberd as being our clear 2nd best player over the entire season. The only thing that could be factored in is that he went away from the coaches orders too many times - didn't see that myself though. Oliver was a worthy winner, all the same. The kid is a star in the making.

Got a mate who is a recent convert to the NFL ... and he picked the Giants as his team. This bloke knows a fair bit about team sport and he's well aware of Eli and the 2 x SB wins and Coughlin and all that. He hasn't had a problem with Eli all year but he reckons the Giants O-Line & D-Line are woeful and are the crux of the Giants problems. And coach McAdoo. It's hard for me to comment as I don't watch their games (aside from highlights & Redzone) so I'll take his and your word for it as you both will watch their games (or at least a number of their games) ... as an example of that, I've got a keen interest in tomorrow's game (Vikings @ Bears) because both teams are in Green Bay's division.

I read your earlier post and I agree with your view ...there's some real talent around and there's a good degree of athleticism attached with nearly all of the new breed. On the surface it all looks a step-up from the Kap, RG3 & Luck class. Although I'm still scratching my head about the fall from grace with Kaepernick. Good arms everywhere as well ... was impressed with Prescott today but he just got out-gunned by Rodgers - no disgrace in that. I reckon the QB class definitely runs deeper now - and it's the new blokes that have pushed up the numbers. Brady, Ryan, Ben, Flacco, Stafford, Smith, Rivers, Wilson, Breez & Cousins are all still good though. Even Eli's numbers are still decent - not sure about McAdoo as a head coach. An 0 & 5 start would normally spell doom in New York.

And aside from tomorrow's game there's a big clash coming up in a few days time for your blokes (Eagles @ Panthers) I'm not sure how the players ever find a way to back up again just 4 days later but the match-ups are often very good and I suppose both sides are in the same boat (re prep time) All I know is that it just continues the Friday night 'football' (on the box) and I'm all-in. One of the teams will almost certainly end up being 5 & 1 and well set-up. Newton vs Wentz - bring it on. The Giants will win games soon enough ... they can only hope to play spoiler now and they do have 4 games left within your division.

Go the Vikes hey! And your lads are flying Dappa ... 4 & 1 and 2 games clear of your biggest rival (although instead of Dallas that might be the Redskins now) Winning form is infectious and if you can win at least 2 of the next 3 (@ Panthers (this upcoming Thursday night), vs Washington, vs 49ers) then you're well set-up for the 2nd half of the season. And how 'bout them Jags @Clintosaurus? Like Seattle from the more recent past, your D is often your offense. It's great to see actually ... you'll probably need 10 wins to get it done in your division but 9 wins might suffice. Your schedule isn't tough so it's do-able. @Gorgoroth ... what about those Panthers? 2 big wins on the road and their schedule now looks a hell of a lot easier. @JV7 might be getting a tad concerned Newton is a real talent and if he can hold things together, they're a real show. As for my Packers ... that's a clutch win in big D and Rodgers is just amazing. The WR's really stood up as well and when that happens, we're always a chance. I'm not sure how far we can go with a below average defense but they do have their good days - get the timing right and who knows?