Macca

@binman @Wadda We Sing @Demon77 Some more thoughts on the format of our best bets Is 3 the right number or 4? I'm leaning towards 4 although we could make it 3 and then limit it to 3 on a first in, best dressed basis. The same rule could be had if we want to limit it to 4 (which is my preferred maximum) Again, first in, best dressed and once we have 4 best bets that's it for the weekend. Or we could leave it open for more picks ... of course if we end up with 5 or more best bets which one's get prioritised? In summary ... I'm happy to go with 3 or 4 but any more than that becomes a bit unworkable in my eyes.

The reality is that working as a group is the way to go. 4 sets of eyes has to work better than 1 set of eyes Wadda. For instance, I'm prepared to go to SA, WA or Qld to find that Best Bet. It paid off in the just completed weekend with binman's standout pick out of Morphettville. As stated in a previous post, I'm looking at ways of getting some collects out of a 2 from 4 outcome. Even those series of very small bets I've got in mind can pay ok (in a treble)

My favoured form of betting outside of the horses is of all things - Rugby Union (specifically Super Rugby but sometimes the Internationals) ... but definitely not Rugby League. I'm not bad at the NBA but find MLB, NHL & the NFL very difficult. And I'm no good at all with the AFL. Soccer - no good. I usually quiz mates for their weekend 'Special' and most people I know have one sport that they're adept at finding a winner in. Counting the first week we're sitting at 6 from 7 with one runners-up. That is not a bad start Wadda. Australian Group & Listed Races

Wadda you've given me a solution for what to do with any of the 6 available doubles within our 4 best bets (AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD) Couple any of those doubles up with 1 other separate selection in any amount of other sports (like the AFLW) or 1 other fancied horse (apart from the 4 best bets) I'm talking very small outlays of 2 or 3 dollars. So if we end up with 2 from 4 (which will happen at some stage) one can still have at least 1 live treble or in fact a number of multiple trebles that are still alive. If any 3 of the 4 win like what happened last Saturday then that would mean that 3 of the 6 available doubles will have got up and/or would still be alive with another selection (or 2) I'm thinking of ditching my trifecta/first4 thinking (Sha Tin on a Sunday aside ) and going more for straight out selections with a series of trebles based around our 4 best bets.

There are times (no pun intended) where I will often disregard the times run by a horse. e.g. If a horse has previously run fast times carrying a low weight but is stepping up to Group racing and will thus carry 5 or 6 more kgs.

I don't expect anyone to necessarily agree with me with regards to measuring times ... but my view on times is extremely complcated taking into account different tracks, weights, the tempo of certain races and a heap of other factors. As I said, each to their own as there is no absolute way. A great example with regards to times is Winx ... the horse runs extremely fast times in its victories (primarily) And the other horses simply can't keep up. But of course there is also the will to win factor and numerous other factors ... 'times' like anything else is just a guide and not the be all and end all. For some the times matter and for others they don't

A lot of punters don't bother with times but I'm baffled as to why that is ... however I am times specific. Caulfield & Moonee Valley times are often very difficult to work out but it's virtually the opposite at Fkemington, Rosehill, Randwick, Sha Tin & Ascot. Times and weighrs can be compared at those tracks. And I add a second to a second and and a half off all Morphettville times. That track is a fast track as far as I'm concerned. But each to their own . . we all read the form differently and that is a good thing. Reading the form isn't easy but nor should anyone expect it to be easy. By the way 1 second equates to 16/17 metres. I kg is a length or a length and a half (according to the experts) Edit: Add a second or a second and a half to Morphettville times (not take off)

The form from the Orr Stakes will be tricky because of the very slow time they ran (1:24.79) Anything could have won it as it waa a blanket finish and only 3 or 4 lengths covered the entire field I am big on times & weights specifically for WFA races or Set Weight races so I much prefer racetracks where the races are truly run. Caulfield is not a favourite binman!

It was a dull first half and then the Gunners looked like they didn't want to be there. As you said, Tottenham could have easily scored 3 or 4 goals. Arsenal look like they might be putting all their efforts into the Europa League. They might win it too and thus find another way into the Champions League (although they would want to avoid Napoli, Dortmund & Atletico Madrid!) As for the CL knockout fixtures, there's 4 big match-ups (Juve/Spurs, Real Madrid/PSG, Sevilla/Man Utd & Chelsea/Barca) that I'll be tuning into. All played on different days too. That is great scheduling for the neutrals. Juventus are in fine form so your lads will be in for a tough 2 games (Juve have only conceded 1 goal since Nov 20) Good luck GV!

February is Oscar's movie month (The Academy Awards is on Sunday March 4th) Usually manage to work my way through to seeing most (or all) of the movies up for Best Picture by the time the Awards night is on. Only seen 3 of the films so far which is a little unusual but will have seen a few more within a week or so. Here are the 9 films up for best picture ... Call Me by Your Name (Drama, Romance) Darkest Hour (Biography, Drama, History) 8/10 Dunkirk (Action, Drama, History) 9/10 Get Out (Horror, Mystery, Thriller 7.5/10 Lady Bird (Comedy, Drama) Phantom Thread (Drama, Romance) The Post (Biography, Drama, History) The Shape of Water (Adventure, Drama, Fantasy) Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (Crime, Drama)

Yes @Demon77 Of our 4 best bets yesterday 3 of the horses were $2 chances and that won't always be the case ... so hedging on the treble within the 4 pick multi could well offer much better odds. Yesterday I put a little extra on the 3 leg multi that got up ... it was paying $8 as opposed to the other 3 combinations all paying around about $13. Thus, I ended up doubling my total outlay (which also included a bet on the 4 pick multi) If for instance our 4 picks next week (if all participate) are showing fixed dividends of say 2.20, 2.70, 3.20 & 3.50 then the trebles would pay as follows ... $19, $21, $25 & $30. And the pick 4 multi would pay $66. The above is just my way of doing things ... I thought we'd possibly get 4 best bets (or more) so that was my contingency plan ... others can do with the picks what they want.

We were close to winning quite a bit of money (or at least I was) ... you've got to take the good with the bad when betting. Itz Invincible nearly got pipped so those who did the 3 from 4 multi's got a bit lucky (myself included) Watch for Tosen Stardom to bounce back - the commentator called it last but there were 4 horses behind it on the line in a blanket finish. Only about 4 lengths covered the entire finish and Tosem Stardom wasn't that far off the winner. The wide draw and the fact that is was 3 or 4 wide for the entire race made winning the race a very difficult assignment for the horse. I wasn't on it yesterday but @Wadda We Sing & @binman were both circumspect about its chances anyway. One to watch and the odds might be attractive for its next run (The Futurity Stakes Feb 24 and/or the Australian Cup March 10?) Australian Group & Listed Races

Just for a bit of future historical purposes I'm going to try and post up the replays of the Group 1 Races (both here & overseas) Those new to the thread can peruse through and watch some replays of some great Group racing whilst the resident posters can scroll back whenever we wish to do so. We'll start things off with yesterday's C F Orr Stakes (2018) ...

Good afternoon ... @Wadda We Sing, @Demon77 In a parlay bet with the TAB a horses odds would reduce if there were a lot of scratchings as you're getting paid tote odds. I'm not defending the TAB as I'm in agreement that the fixed odds shouldn't alter once you've laid that bet. As far as I can make out the fixed Sportsbet odds offered don't change once you've laid your bet but I could be wrong on that - of course, all their odds are never tote odds but the fixed odds can vary depending on the time of day or the day in question (just like it does at the TAB) I joined up at Sportsbet in 5 minutes although the process takes 2 or 3 days to be verified/approved. Deposits can be bank transfers/cards/paypal and withdrawn money can be deposited in your bank account. All online of course. I'm not a spokesperson for Sportsbet by the way, other online betting companies could be way better and I may well explore those options as well ... Sportsbet.com

I'm wondering if Sportsbet have the same sort of one-sided rules? I joined up tonight just to see what they are like. I've got a few mates that gave up on the TAB long ago ... they've gone to Sportsbet as well as Ladbrokes & William Hill etc. Because I only ever bet online I'm no longer rusted on to the TAB and after hearing your story & Wadda's story I'll probably be making the switch sooner rather than later. I'm constantly being told that the odds are better elsewhere anyway.

That is an ordinary outcome Wadda ... when a horse is scratched from a multi we're left with the same bet minus that leg. Which often defeats the purpose of having that multi in the first place. We take our chances on the early odds knowing that can happen. So the odds shouldn't change just because other horses are scratched - the TAB should wear that. It's just typical. It would have been the 'Show A Star' odds by the looks of it as that race ended up having only a 5 horse field. Still, I'm with you ... they've got some nerve short changing the payout on a fixed odds multi. Related are the fixed odds themselves ... both last weekend and this weekend the odds on a number of our selections started reducing from Thursday evening onwards. I'm going to continue to go early with my best bet for the reasons outlined above - and then hope like hell there aren't any mass scratchings from the race the best bet is applied to!

There might be a few goals in this Spurs/Gunners clash ... big crowd too (close on 90,000 apparently) The game is on SBS in case you weren't aware.

I'm not sure that Winx would have been troubled today if she had run in the C F Orr Stakes. The race time was not overly quick (somewhere in the 1:24's?) but regardless, the mare would have blitzed them in the straight anyway. But this article from Racenet.com sets the scene for Hartnell to take on Winx in the G1 1600m Chipping Norton (March 3rd) Winx versus Hartnell? Bring it on! Australian Group & Listed Races

Speaking of which I've put on a sports multi for tonight/overnight but this time I've used the same way of thinking that we're exploring with the horses. Rather than looking for a massive payout like I normally do I've looked for a total dividend in the 25 -1 to 30-1 area with an absolute maximum of 6 legs. I've also got a saver Trifecta going at Sha Tin later (seeing you're the Caulfield Correspondent am I the Hong Kong Wizard? ha ha) I'm thinking up some nicknames for @binman & @Demon77 - The Morphettville Marauder? The Flemington Forecaster? Good luck with the last leg of your multi Wadda.

There's too much information to take in Wadda ... that's why this thread is ultra helpful. We're still in the very early stages - as time goes on the info swapped about will take on more significance. Anyway, 'Show A Star' salutes so that's the treble (within the 4 pick) I've doubled my outlay by utilising the saver multi's and I hope you blokes got a collect as well. 3 from 4 is always going to show a good return so the system held up (at least that's the way I'm approaching it) Great win by Hartnell in the Orr Stakes too - what a class act that horse is. A blanket finish though, all the same. My pick (Dollar for Dollar) just couldn't get a clear run at them.

Why didn't they tell us that stuff a few days ago? ha ha

The winner far too good there ... no prizes for 2nd. I've still got Show A Star in a couple of 'saver' multi's so all is not lost.

The great bit is that we're not flying solo with this multi idea ... the team aspect makes it slightly less nerve-racking. But nevertheless, it's still nerve-racking! I completely forgot that I had a small trifecta going in Gailo Chop race - small dividend but a win is a win.

Good start to the day with Gailo Chop (well done @Wadda We Sing)... as per usual I completely ignored the first few races at Caul & the Farm. Too hard.

I had a strong feeling you'd go with Itz Invincible binman ... I figured that you'd either run out of races in Melb or Syd to find a standout or you'd do a quick peruse of the races at Morphettville anyway. So last night I had a look at the races at Morphettville and I could only find 1 absolute standout - Itz Invincible. lol. So Gents, here are the 4 standout best bets ... Caulfield Race 4 No 1 Gailo Chop (Wadda) Morphettville Race 5 No 1 Itz Invincible (binman) Warwick Farm Race 7 No 2 Eqyptian Symbol (Macca) Warwick Farm Race 8 No 4 Show A Star (Demon 77) Good luck with those 4 fellas and good punting to all!