Macca

The trainer of 'Trap For Fools' was on RSN this morning and he mentioned that the horse has an issue with a fetlock and might end up being scratched tomorrow morning. I had the horse as a standout as well DZ but it's better that we now know that it has an issue.

Best bet ... Moonee Valley Race 5 No.5 Streets of Avalon $4.80

Ha! It's already all systems go for me Wadda ... the Missile Stakes to be run at Randwick on Saturday is my kind of trifecta race - a 10 horse field only but the quality is there with Kementari on top. I fancy Showtime to run a good race first up whilst 'She Will Reign's' first up form is enormous - 4 from 4.

Video of a couple of Group 1's from the weekend (overseas) and it's worth having another look at Vega Magic blitzing them in the Bletchingly Stakes likewise Nature Strip in the Lightning Stakes It's also worth noting that the confirmed Cox Plate starter 'Benbatl' won a Group 1 2000m race out of Germany on the weekend as well ... the time was a tad slow but the tracks are quite often on the dead side of good in Europe so it's more about the ratings.

That's a couple of smart bankers in a multi Wadda ... good luck with the other 2 picks although I see the Rabbitohs have got a bit of work ahead. My only other bet this weekend is in the Group 1 2400m Stakes race at Epsom just after midnight. Cracksman is up against Poet's Word & Crystal Ocean whilst Rostropovich might get into the finish.

To Gator's credit he did tip Nature Strip & Vega Magic today and that double was paying around about $3.50 early doors (with an odds boost) I bet away from him looking for value but that didn't work! ? Anyway, here's the latest odds for The Everest ... Trapeze Artist 4-1 Nature Strip 5-1 Vega Magic 6-1 Redzel 8-1 Menari 10-1 Kementari 10-1 US Navy Flag 12-1 Shoals 14-1 Santa Ana Lane 14-1 Brave Smash 16-1 In Her Time 16-1 English 20-1 Chatauqua 25-1 Invincible Star 25-1 Estijaab 25-1 Written By 25-1 Redkirk Warrior 40-1 Winx 50-1

El Magnificence would have got closer!

And Nature Strip wins in commanding fashion ... another dead-set candidate for the Everest after that run. Sunlight might have needed the run but the horse was outclassed if we're being honest.

That is a very good dividend Wadda ... 3-1 odds for the best 2 horses in the race (if you had them in the right order!)

Vega Magic way way too good ... Everest-like form. Made some good horses look quite ordinary.

... and then there was one. Invinzabeel never really looked like it.

And we''re out of the multi early ... Foreign Territory looked good hitting the straight but Paret was too good. All is not lost though as I've backed the other 2 to win ... hoping for at least 1 winner out of the 2 to break even on the 3 pick combination.

Ended up getting 43-1 (boosted) for our 3 picks today fellas Good luck to all !

Mussoorie Magic has been scratched DZ ? I've put Mount Kilkoy in a couple of boosted-odds doubles ... I tend to do that with the short priced favourites. Invinzabeel has shortened too - it was Gator's best bet though. JJ's best bet is in race 8 at Morphettville ... No.12 Nodoubtaboutit $6.00 ... he went winless last week which was surprising. I would have had a real good day if he'd got his usual 3+ winners. Gator tipped 6 winners last week - 3 each at Flemington & Randwick. He's in hot form.

Best bet ... Rosehill Race 7 No.4 Invinzabeel $6.00 Very consistent horse and has drawn to do very little work with the inside gate. Trained by Waller with Shinn on board, it's also been tipped to win by Gator & Brad Davidson. The 1400m is the horse's ideal distance and it races well at Rosehill.

According to this article on racing.com a horse can be penalised 3-5 points for winning and 1-2 points for finishing 2nd or 3rd. That's the short answer but there are discretionary powers at play as well. El Magnificence may go from a rating of 62 to 63 or 64 but I'm only guessing Wadda. Those extra 2 ratings points amounts to 1 extra kg in a BM64 race. The winner would probably be penalised to a point where it might have to race in higher benchmark races. If Gator Picks Voodoo Lad I'm on it ?... may or may not make it my best bet though. There's a few others in a few of the other races that I've got my eye on as well. And the Nature Strip/Sunlight match-race has quinella written all over it ... the exacta will pay more but which horse wins? They've both got speed to burn.

I got the 4.20 for the place on offer on Monday but the money did come for El late ...ran on well considering if was pushed quite wide by the horses inside it nearing the turn. Just didn't quite have the pace to go with Illumicon from the jump. It will run in easier BM64's but I'm not sure how that whole benchmark system works ... does a 3rd placing push up a horses rating by much @Dee Zephyr @Wadda We Sing ? Anyway, any time you can more than triple your outlay is a good result from a punting perspective. By my reckoning they ran a very handy time for the 1000m on a Soft6 too - around 58 seconds flat or thereabouts.

Racenet.com has a results section where the times and last 600 are available the next day ... the data goes back 12 months which is a handy aid. As for the El-Mag race, if one could figure out the right trifecta or F4 combination, there's some money to be made. There's about 5 or 6 winning chances and up to a dozen horses could run a place! $4.30 the place with a little on for the win might be the go?

Well there's only the one turn at Sandown over the 1000m and from the barriers there's a 500m straight run to that turn ... as you can see from the image below the turn isn't a sharp one either. It's got a fair amount of good early speed so it should be able to get into a good position with a bit of luck. The top 3 fancies in the race have got some reasonably decent form but none of them are Nature-Strip like or even Gold-Mag like. It's a chance. By the way, the winner broke 34 seconds for the last 600 on a Soft5 in El's last race at Sandown.

I hope they just persevere with barrier trials until it's obvious that the horse isn't interested ... it's not like Chautauqua has refused to jump on 10-15 occasions. It's a gelding so the connections have got nothing to lose. Apart from anything else it's one hell of an intriguing conundrum DZ and if they retire the horse there will always be that 'what-if' question surrounding the horse. Oddly enough I've never backed the horse (for some unknown reason) so I'm not talking through my hip-pocket. Or maybe I am in terms of the future ha ha ... if it ever races again I'm getting on!

Devastating news DZ ... I hope they give the horse another chance to jump although the chances of that happening aren't great. Such a shame but I suppose the horse is telling us it just doesn't want to race again.

Nice pick Wadda (and Gator) - thanks! Bonus bets at work again. Well, we went 2 from 3 today and I was betting with house money with the win bets on our picks. Terrific acceleration by the horse too - it's got some real speed.

Yep ... it is a better percentage play just as long as we get 1 winner! With the 4 best-bets 1 winner is line ball but 2 winners should produce a profit. And it's good knowing that we all put a fair bit of thought into our best bet too. As previously stated, at this time of the year I'm looking out for what Gator or JJ like.

Well if we always get 1 of the 3 up we should, in theory, get our money back and cover the multi bet if we back each of the 3 to win (using enhanced or booster odds) 2 winners turns a profit and 3 winners delivers a very good payout. When BM returns we'll have 4 best-bets going but the same principle applies.

Laddies gave me some more bonus bets again Wadda so I loaded up on the win as well ... ran on nicely didn't it? Could it be our day? ... those bonus odds you got could be an omen DZ!