Everything posted by Macca
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A Day at the Races
In the end I decided on Darren Weir's horse 'Leicester' in the SA Derby as my best bet. Morphettville Race 7 No.3 ($4.60) ... it is also paying $1.90 the place. I believe it has drawn well enough to get a good run in the race and it does finish off its races well. And its main rivals have drawn wide or are drawn outside of it. I had it marked on top when I put together a trifecta in the race.
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A Day at the Races
Yep ... Redzel has to be included Wadda so I'll take 'In Her Time' as the 2nd choice winner. Like Redzel, In Her Time should get into a decent settling position in front of a number of other fancied runners. Good closing speed should get her into the finish. So it's over to @binman to come up with the 3rd choice winner. Lots of value after the first 2 as well. And it's obviously a better dividend with the value runner saluting. No pressure though BM! ?
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A Day at the Races
The trainer of 'Houtzen' mentioned this morning on RSN that the horse won't be ridden forward and would be ridden for luck. No doubt because of the wide gate. It's a 350 metre dash to that big long turn at Doomben so the settling positions of the horses are all important - those leading can scoot away entering the 350 metre long straight so if there's any inside bias, it could be a leaders track. A few of the more fancied runners might be coming from a fair way back. A good field though. And Darren Weir was a little circumspect about the 2500m with Leicester but the same could be said for a number of the other horses in the race. Tough race to find the right trifecta combo, all the same. As you said DZ, let's get the 2 wins!
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A Day at the Races
Well, the Doomben 10,000 it is then gentlemen ... over to you @Wadda We Sing for the first tip. Got a half-decent percentage of the First4 in the Scone Cup today ... those speed maps, settling positions and finishing speeds on racenet.com came in real handy. Would have got the first5 if there was such a thing! Whilst I'm here, I may as well post up the best bets from the experts ... however, Gator's tip might be a bit of a risk after all the rain we've had but I'll post it up anyway. The treble might be worth a fiver - you never know. James Jordan (JJ) - Morphettville Race 4 No.1 Tequila Time $4.40 Sky Thoroughbred - Scone Race 4 No.8 Moss Trip $3.40 Gator (Racing.com) - Caulfield Race 3 No.1 Amovatio $5.50 The 'Get On' crew are split between 'Main Stage' & 'Leicester' in the SA Derby. They had a good chat about the Doomben 10000 as well but I'll leave that evaluation aside and let you fellas break it all down. After Wadda and myself have our picks it's then over to @binman and then @Dee Zephyr @Dee Zephyr @binman
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A Day at the Races
I agree DZ ... the Doomben 10000 would be my choice. I also prefer to limit these trifecta combined efforts to the Group 1 races only. That is generally how I operate. That would take us to late June and then we could start up again in early September. Just a thought.
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A Day at the Races
You could be right Wadda ... I read somewhere that they are trying to address the issue but those HK based horses are free to go to other major racing centre's virtually unhindered (like Royal Ascot) It's just here where the quarantine laws are way too tough on horses from certain countries yet not tough at all with horses from other countries. There's no standard practice from what I can gather.
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A Day at the Races
Different quarantine rules I believe Wadda ... for the HK raced horses to race here they are required to be quarantined somewhere in China for 6 months. Therefore, the owners don't bother. For the Japan based horses, it might only be a couple of weeks there and a couple of weeks here (quarantine) ... UK based horses the same? Beat the Clock is an Australian bred horse for instance but we'll probably never see the horse race here ... I'd love to see that horse along with Mr Stunning, DB Pin & Ivictory all over here racing in our sprint races.
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A Day at the Races
The quarantine laws for the HK horses makes it darn near impossible for the top horses there to race here ... but there's always Chautauqua, Wadda! And Merchant Navy, Viddora, Vega Magic, Brave Smash et al. Quite simply, they should find a way for horses like Pakistan Star, Beauty Generation, Beat the Clock and others to be able to run in our big races.
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A Day at the Races
Shoals to race on and then go to Royal Ascot next winter - so there's a chance the horse will run in the Goodwood on the 19th of May. The horse has been entered for the race. Listen here for more details (Racing pulse interviews the owner of Shoals, John Messara - Podcast #10) Shoals will also be a likely starter for 'The Everest' ... which is shaping up as having an outstanding field assembled with Redzel, Trapeze Artist & In Her Time already confirmed. Happy Clapper is a real possibility along with Kementari & Redkirk Warrior. Winx is an outside chance of running as well - you never know. With $7.8Million awarded to the winner, why not?
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A Day at the Races
@Dee Zephyr @binman @Wadda We Sing The choices for our trifecta combo are dwindling somewhat but I found 2 decent races with another that might take your fancy. I'm happy to go with the consensus so if you've got a preferred option or if you've another race choice, feel free to put your choice forward. Doomben 10,000 Group 1 1200m WFA $700k Morphettville SA Derby Group 1 2500m SW $600k Scone Inglis 3yo Guineas 1400m 3YO SW $400k Scone Racecourse ... Trifecta Strike Rate 3: 1 - 2 (+$30.50) Best Bet Strike Rate 46: 22 - 10 - 2 Australian Group and Listed Races
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CYCLING
Aussie Rohan Dennis is leading the Giro and he might keep the pink jersey for a few more days yet. Eurosports are covering the event but unfortunately, SBS aren't covering the event as they have done in previous years. You might be able to find the race online with a decent search. Although tonight's stage isn't easy by any means and whilst Wednesday's stage is quite tough, Thursday's stage (stage 6) sees the riders take on Mt Etna and that climb might start sorting out the GC riders from the rest. Other stages to look out for with regards to difficult climbs are stages 8 (Sat) 9 (Sun) 14 (Sat) 15 (Sun) 18 (Thurs) 19 (Fri) & 20 (Sat) ... so the grueling climbs are set for the next 3 weekends. See more at CyclingNews.com Here's the profile of stage 6 (Thursday) with tonight's profile underneath.
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A Day at the Races
It looks like Youtube isn't coming to the party with a replay of the Kentucky Derby or the Robert Sangster Stakes so if you click on the links below and then logon you can watch a replay of both races ... Kentucky Derby (Attendance 157,813 - 8th Highest) Robert Sangster Stakes I got a reasonable collect in the Kentucky Derby by loading up on the place with Good Magic but the winner far too good. As for Shoals, now there was an opportunity missed for a lot of us. The horse could end up being one of the better sprinter/milers we've seen the way it's going. Royal Ascot next up for the horse by all accounts so it almost certainly won't run in the Goodwood. Best Bet Strike Rate 46: 22 - 10 - 2 Trifecta Strike Rate 3: 1 - 2 (+$30.50) Australian Group and Listed Races
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A Day at the Races
I'll post up the Kentucky Derby & The Robert Sangster Stakes when they become available but here's the Australasian Oaks & The Newmarket 2000 Guineas (UK) n.b. If you have a TAB account you can watch a replay of just about any race.
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A Day at the Races
I've had a few decent collects over time but I was a bit lucky on each occasion. Sometimes it pays not to research too much.
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A Day at the Races
Somewhere in Newcastle I'm presuming. Eels got it back to a 2 point margin so we covered that game easily but the Waratahs couldn't get the ball over the line despite attacking the Blues try line in the dying minutes of the game - lost by 3. Ugh. Still, I've got a few horses running around in 3 overnight races. There's always the next opportunity Wadda.
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A Day at the Races
The A-League final is on one of the channel 10 stations (channel 1?) The keeper for Melb Victory had a fantastic first half. Brilliant saves
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A Day at the Races
They're down by 4 but we need the Eels to start scoring against the Sharks. There's a lot of luck involved with sporting multi's. I usually just set and forget and hope for the best. I'm watching a bit of the A-League GF though ... the keeper for Melbourne is playing lights out. Swans are battling a bit too. I've backed Good Magic each way in the Kentucky Derby - more for the place in actual fact Wadda.
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A Day at the Races
2 big races from overseas coming up overnight - The 2000 Guineas down the straight 8 at Newmarket just after midnight tonight & The Kentucky Derby just before 9.00am tomorrow. Here are some links to the fields for those who might be interested ... Newmarket 2000 Guineas - Link 1 Link 2 Kentucky Derby - Link 1 Link 2 I'm trying to have a few doubles but Ladbrokes are only allowing W & P bets and no multis at this stage. I'll find a way. 'Good Magic' offers a bit of value in the Kentucky Derby although Mendelsshon & Justify are heavily favoured whilst in the 2000 Guineas, the winner should come from the top 3 fancies (Aiden O'Brien trains 2 of the 3 and also Mendelsshon in the Kentucky Derby) I'll post up the replays tomorrow if they're available
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A Day at the Races
I was guilty of following the money but maybe the punters thought the 1200m was a bit short. That's the only thing I can think of Wadda. But we now know the horse can win at Group 1 level at 1200m, 1400m & 1600m ... not too many horses are capable of that. But I suppose that's what can happen in the big group races - top horses end up being over the odds because of the quality. However, Shoals wasn't even mentioned.
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A Day at the Races
Looks like Shoals could be set for Royal Ascot now. A dominant win against some very likely types. The 3rd placegetter would have put me out of the trifecta anyway. Tri paid a lazy 9k+ so there are a few happy campers.
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A Day at the Races
Yep ... I keep looking at the horse as well. It's a good field but Shoals has been forgotten
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A Day at the Races
Land of Plenty wins! I've done a saver multi so alive here.
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A Day at the Races
There it is again ... Lite'n In My Veins wins again!
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A Day at the Races
JJ changed his best bet of the day to Savapinski in the last ... he's done that before but was probably looking for a bit of value after the scratchings in race 2. Silent Warrior well beaten though - another 2nd but the 1.60 for the place was a reasonable return considering there were only 7 runners.
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A Day at the Races
And I got the trifecta based on his tips - not a big return but a win is a win Wadda!