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Everything posted by Macca
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Yep ... and it seems that every week there is a new story. Winx will be back! In the Chipping Norton at the Farm. I'll be trying a 1-3-5-5 First 4 which for $20 will return 55% of the dividend. Happy to take some feedback on the horses involved in that multiple. On top of that we've got the $1Million Australian Guineas @ Headquarters. Of course, you being the Flemington 'Forecaster' D77 means we'll be expecting lots of tips! During the week I'll try and post up the videos of last year's feature events held at this time last year. Australian Group & Listed Races Here are the replays of the 2 Group 1 races from Sha Tin today. Hey @Wadda We Sing , you and I can sit back watch us lose our money all over again ha ha
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Again, the winner just too good. You always get a run for your money in these types of races - Beauty Generation is a proven Group 1 winner and that experience was telling. Group racing sorts out the newcomers but Beat the Clock & Fifty Fifty weren't disgraced. To win these races you've got to beat the best of the best. Went 2 - 6 - 6 in both races but should have gone 3 - 5 - 5. There wasn't a 6th horse in either race that was going to threaten. You live and learn.
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Werther had every chance but the winner too good .. a truly run race and they broke 2 minutes for the 2000m. A track record. Time Warp just wouldn't concede. The first 4 across the line a class above. Had them all in a trifecta but alas, the wrong configuration! My trifecta in the next race mirrors yours Wadda - I've gone with the 2 new guns as well.
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My biggest issue with the pundits is that they are often trying to outdo one another and will rarely come to a unanimous agreement. Punters are often the same. For instance, the 4 best bets we come up with can be used in a variety of ways - straight out W/P, included in Quaddies, Trifectas, Running Doubles, Quinellas etc or in multi's. My adage might be ... when in doubt pick a Group-type horse dropping back or if it's class stands out in a Group Race. A number of the winners yesterday fell into that category - Gailo Chop, Russian Revolution, Sunlight, Kementari, Brave Smash.
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Bruce was the doyen before he became too gushy. He still knows his stuff if you can ignore all the schmaltz. I don't mind him but I now prefer the 'racing-heads' because of the vital info. Having cable I'm spoilt for choice - I will occasionally go to 7HD for the actual races because of the quality of picture but the racing channel (78) and Sky Thoroughbreds HD is ample enough Wadda. Both stations have a preview show and a review show from the Saturday races.
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Same here - never knew (and I've been to Caulfield dozens of times including when the big sprint races are held there) I suppose that's why we're labelled 'mug-punters' Wadda
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Was watching Racing.com last night and they were pointing out that there is only 1 turn in the 1100/1200 metre races at Caulfield. There is a 500-600 straight run from the starting gates to the turn which means that the wide barrier draws are not as bad a disadvantage as one would think. You learn something new every day in this caper! Anyway ... Click on this link for a race replay of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (2018) And here's the replay of the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (2018) ...
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The top 2 (Helene Paragon & Beauty Generation) are both proven at Group 1 level but 'Best the Clock' & 'Fifty Fifty' are very quick horses and the distance suits both Wadda. It's out of those 4 really with your 2 on top ... however, I might throw a couple more in for 3rd in a multi Trifecta. Pingwu Spark (no.11) would have to be a show too ... been running excellent times at this distance carrying weight. Your quinella looks a good bet if we go on current form. In the Hong Kong Gold Cup I will be working around Werther & Seasons Bloom. Both proven at this level and both in good form.
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I'll post up the replays of the Blue Diamond & Oakleigh Plate if and when they become available but here's the Futurity Stakes (2018) ...
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Well, we weren't far off all 4 selections coming through Wadda ... Ace High wasn't far off 3rd and 'Show a Star' probably would have won if it was able to find some cover. I included a few other horses in various 3 pick multi's (coupled with a couple of our best bets) but for whatever reason I baulked at Silent Sedition, Kementari, Written By & Brave Smash. All 4 of those horses were jumping out at me but I went for the value instead. The day ended up being a decent one but could have been very very good. I reckon we just keep doing it the way we're doing it. Sooner or later we'll snag all 4.
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You have had a good day - you're not bad at those quaddies, Wadda! Tomorrow's 2 big Group 1's at Sha Tin should see some great racing ... the Gold Cup is a really good betting race with Pakistan Star back up against Werther, Time Warp, Season's Bloom and a few others. The other race (The Jubilee Cup) sees the 2 new guns 'Beat the Clock' & 'Fifty Fifty' up against a host of really good Group horses (Beauty Generation, Helene Paragon, Pingwu Spark et al) As per usual, I'll restrict myself to those 2 races and try and figure out some trifecta combinations.
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Well ... if you banked on our best bets returning at least a 2 from 4 result then Gailo Chop was a moral. That was an authoritative win. Ended up in front for the day with Gailo Chop saluting (got a half decent multi up) On top of that the Demons won with authority as well. Anyway, playing with house money tomorrow for the 2 big Group 1 races at Sha Tin. The usual suspects are all running around again and both races have quality field's involved. The Hong Kong Gold Cup 2000m Group 1 WFA $1.7Million (7.05pm) The Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup 1400m Group 1 WFA $1.7Million (7.40pm)
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There's been quite a few favoured horses get up today ... Kementari, Written By, Silent Sedition, Brave Smash, Overshare, Sunlight, Cellarman, Try A Lil Harder, I Am Excited & Russian Revolution. Well done on your all-up bet Wadda - I've broken even for the day but have still got a few live bets going.
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It was well placed but the others had better acceleration. The first 2 are very classy - Ace High not disgraced. I had a saver trifecta which got up - every collect counts!
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It wins anyway ... bolted in! Gunned it.
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Went close but Brave Smash just too classy ... Tosen needs the 1600m up to 2000m. I certainly wouldn't be writing Tosen off although Brave Smash might have its measure over the mile as well. Weir has just said that both horses are heading for the Blamey Stakes (17th March 1600m) then up to Sydney.
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The Punters went away from 'Silent Sedition' but it won easily. Far too good for that lot. The horse looks like it has found its form.
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Yep D77 ... impressive win by Sunlight and Estijaab ran a treat as well. The Slipper is an extra 100m and that extra bit of distance looks like it will definitely suit Sunlight. And Santos looms large. Show a Star couldn't get cover whilst Cellarman got a great run. Anyway I'm still alive because of the Sunlight win and hope others are as well.
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Fairly sure the TAB offers that facility and I know that Sportsbet definitely does Wadda. Ladbrokes doesn't at first glance. A good run from Almandin too ... it looked home for a long time there. Worth following up on all the same
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G'day Wadda I like the thinking there ... we gave the horse a bit of a chance to be in the finish at its first up run over the 1200m. I am seeing up to 6.00 offered so the odds are enticing too.
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Show a Star looks every chance D77 ... the standouts are more at Rosehill rather than Caulfield. The Blue Diamond & Oakleigh Plate are especially difficult. Still, it won't mean that we won't get some great racing coupled with some excellent dividends (Tri's & First4's) I've put together some small spec multi's & spec trifectas to keep an interest throughout. Your pick in the Blue Diamond (Oohood) is a real show too - great closing speed at the finish in all of her races so the extra distance up to 1200m will suit. I like 'Prairie Fire' for similar reasons and the horse has the inside barrier.
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There's a good betting race on tonight at the Valley ... hoping to kick off the weekend with a early payout. Multiple Trifecta only. Moonee Valley Race 7 Typhoon Tracy Stakes 3yo Fillies SW + P 1200m 150k Group 3
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Football is a team game - one man out means next man up. Good teams/clubs can cover for a major out or 2. We nearly got through to the the 1987 GF with 2 of our best players having very little impact (or no impact) at the business end of the season - injuries being the reason. On top of that Peter Moore was also injured early in the season and couldn't get back into the side.
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It does seem early Wadda but we only play the 2 practice games and they are 11-12 days apart ... the other game is against the Saints on the 8th March (@ Casey - Evening) I liked The Taj Mahal's run in the Zipping Classic back in November. As you said, the race is a terrific way to finish the days program. Edit: The Taj Mahal scratched. I've nearly always preferred to back horses to win at Rosehill, Randwick or Warwick Farm D77. The fields are generally smaller so the horses often don't have any excuses (held up for a run, got too far back etc etc) And as you said, it's a very difficult assignment for 'Written By' in the Blue Diamond drawing the 18 barrier in a quality 1200m race. However, it did win the Blue Diamond Prelude from barrier 13 after showing good early speed.
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A few other horses I like at Caulfield - at first glance. Not necessarily in the 'best bet' category but realistic chances. I will be doing a few 2-4-6 multiple trifecta's at Caulfield so here's a few thoughts ... Bedford in the first race should go well again. Almandin is another to look out for. Smart Coupe deserves another chance in the Armanasco Stakes (Race 4) Needs to jump well! With 'Dollar for Dollar' out of the Futurity I keep looking at Tosen Stardom & Brave Smash Terribly difficult race but I don't mind 'Prairie Fire' & 'Ennis Hill' in the Blue Diamond The Oakleigh Plate is just too hard for me but I might have a 'Spec' trifecta in the race The lucky last is an interesting betting race with 3 standouts (Hartnell, Gailo Chop & The Taj Mahal) - can't split them.