Demon Dynasty
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Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 3 , 2022 vs H&A Season 2021 Well fellow minions we are already three rounds in and while not a very robust body of work and too early to start making wild assumptions, three rounds (from most players) is still something where we can begin to see some trends developing. The Positives (for mine anyway).... 👉 Most players are either tracking at, close to ....or....well above their 2021 averages. The bulk are tracking well above! 👉 The average team score is sitting pretty much spot on with the 2021 average. I reckon that's a big positive given the early outs down back and the fact we would have started our pre-season a few weeks later than all teams bar the Doggies 👉 Stand out improvers on 2021 average statistical form (for arguments sake shall we say 15% plus improvement?? ie., highly unlikely it's a fluke). A medal indicates outstanding improvement (say 25% plus??)... Tracc, Gus🏅 , Bowey 🏅, Viney, Jackson 🏅, ANB 🏅, Sparrow 🏅, Smith 🏅 and BB. The Negatives... 👉 Early days but Gawny is off 2021 by roughly 17%. I'm not that concerned at this early stage though. Plenty of time to make that up and the better more experienced players can bridge that sort of gap in a few weeks, injuries aside. 👉 Barring Benny Brown (and not making any assesments on Weideman or Bedford who have both played only one match and in the case of Bedford only half a match at that & no prior averages to go on anyway), pretty much every other forward is way off their 2021 statistical form by 20% plus! For me this is an early worry, albeit too early to be too worried. Having said that i must say i'm a little more worried about T-Mac & Kozzie, given that their drop away in statistical form pretty much commenced once the finals started last year. Being three rounds in, this is now 6 weeks of relatively poor form from both and 6 weeks to me would appear to be a bit of a trend. 👉 Again early days but Hunt's statistical form is a mile off (-44%) his 2021 average. This would appear to be a significant drop off. Could his ankle injury last year be playing a part here? Lost a bit of his 'off the mark' burst speed? How was his pre-season i wonder? Any restrictions or did he manage to put in a decent block? Player 2022 Score 2022 Rank 2021 Score % Change vs 2021 2021 Rank Change in Rank vs 2021 C Oliver 5.175 1 5.258 -1.58 1 0 C Petracca 4.767 2 4.041 17.96 2 0 A Brayshaw 4.258 3 2.836 50.15 12 9 Steven May 4.133 4 3.926 5.28 3 -1 Jake Bowey 3.833 5 2.881 33.06 11 6 Jack Viney 3.750 6 3.171 18.26 8 2 J Harmes 3.717 7 3.520 5.59 6 -1 L Jackson # 3.708 8 2.355 57.47 21 13 Ed Langdon 3.292 9 3.092 6.46 9 0 Alex N-Bullen 3.175 10 2.388 32.96 19 9 T Sparrow 2.967 11 2.023 46.65 28 17 J Jordon 2.967 11 2.908 2.02 10 -1 Max Gawn # 2.858 13 3.439 -16.88 7 -6 T Rivers 2.563 14 2.658 -3.59 13 -1 Joel Smith 2.367 15 1.375 72.12 32 17 S Weideman* 2.250 16 1.055 113.27 27 11 A Tomlinson 2.250 16 2.475 -9.09 16 0 Ben Brown 2.175 18 1.855 17.25 30 12 T Bedford* 1.825 19 - - - - Bayley Fritsch 1.717 20 2.155 -20.34 25 5 T McDonald # 1.683 21 2.516 -33.09 15 -6 K Pickett 1.550 22 2.378 -34.82 20 -2 C Spargo 1.450 23 2.068 -29.88 27 4 Jayden Hunt 1.442 24 2.597 -44.49 14 -10 Average Team Score - Top 22 66.98 67.23 -0.37 # Hit outs to advantage not captured * Only played one match not an average score Stats courtesy of footywire.com
Yes on this particular night his value was much higher than the rating suggests D4 for sure. Goals are actually weighted higher than pretty much every other stat here. But similar to other ratings systems goals tend to get a little less recognition vs what is happening further up the field, especially through the middle, just due to sheer volume i guess. There's also the pressure side that gets factored in when we don't have the ball and you tend to find tall forwards don't rack up as many on this side vs other mediums & smalls so they miss out here a little. Having said that, a score of 2.25 for a forward is actually pretty good when you consider the average scores of our other forwards for the whole of last season (see above). Weid should retain his place this week IF BB is coming back in. I would think T-Mac might end up missing but then again Goody usually doesn't like to change a winning team (which is understandable) so who knows!
Round 3, 2022 MCG - Demons vs Bombers Not the first time Gus has headed these tables. Without going back over the last four seasons i thought i would just check 2018 as he played a bit more through the middle at times in that season and he ranked number one in rounds 10, 16 & 21. Another fabulous effort by Clarry. Just a few too many turnovers on the night to get the chocolates here, leading the team with nine. So how did Gus arrive at number one? Let's take a brief look at a few highlights. 29 effective disposals, 3 rebounds, 5 inside 50s, 7 score involvements, 8 intercepts and 518 meters gained! Clarry topped the meters gained count for both teams with 666 with Gus the next best. Team score only 2% off the 2021 average... Player Score Rank A Brayshaw 6.350 1 C Oliver 5.250 2 Steven May 4.825 3 Jack Viney 3.950 4 Luke Jackson 3.750 5 J Harmes 3.675 6 Ed Langdon 3.525 7 Max Gawn 3.400 8 Jake Bowey 3.350 9 C Petracca 2.850 10 Trent Rivers 2.775 11 Joel Smith 2.725 12 T Sparrow 2.575 13 B Fritsch 2.475 14 J Jordon 2.250 15 S Weideman 2.250 15 Alex N-Bullen 2.025 17 Jayden Hunt 2.025 17 C Spargo 1.950 19 K Pickett 1.550 20 T McDonald 1.275 21 A Tomlinson 0.975 22 Team Score 65.78 Top 6 27.80 Bottom 6 9.80 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com
Shouldve been 5 up at quarter time had we taken our opportunities W. Then kept fluffing opportunities in the second. Give them some credit though they gave us very little space all night and the first half arm wrestle between Stringer & Tracc was a beauty with Stringer pulling away through the middle stages, Tracc doing some good work at times but mostly at the book ends. You are correct W, our early bad misses gave them a sniff, and over use of hand ball also brought the heat on ourselves over and over. There's a bit of fine tuning needed here and a few players were well off their best as well. The predictable and stagnent slow play kick outs (and general play) across HB out wide to the left flank also played into their hands in defence. Made entries inside a crowded 50 messy and cumbersome to watch. Coming in from the same side of the ground along the wings in that first half was too easy to defend. Needed to switch more often and / or look for a handball or 45 kick on occasions to change lanes and potenntially free up a forward on the fat side or in a different leading lane for a few more lead up marks. Might be wrong but i cant recall us hitting up too many on the lead in those first two to three quarters!?? Stating the obvious but Salem is a very big out as the intercepting link up QB across HB. His pin point passing / decision making and reading of the play around D 50 is at another level to most. Lever also and i feel Hibb back for Hunt is probably the best option once fit. I'm a big fan of Hunt and love what he brings at times but there's a bit more reliability / grunt and pressure around the ball, especially at ground level, when Hibb is up and about for mine. I realise you cant always have every player you want fit and firing every week but that back six goes to another level with Lever, Salem & Hibb up & about. Fingers crossed we can get one or two back in the next three weeks or so.
Harmes was very solid AGAIN tonight. He has some tank and is always buttering up / presenting when the chips are down. While maybe not THE most talented player in the team, the bloke has amazing grit and character and never takes a backward step. Don't underestimate the hurt factor either. He hits & tackles hard and other players know he's about. Hard as a cats head & built like a tank.
Smithy what a game son!!!
Yes been superb. Just like to see him kick it to the top of the square occasionally coming i50. A few too many shorties to the pockets. Just mix it up a bit and keep the defenders guessing etc
Sensational!
Barely sighted apart from that one mark at the end and the snap at goal earlier. Backs doing a great job so far but we are also way too predictable on the rebound always heading to the left HBF. I have yet to see any player across HB take the game on and pull the trigger through the middle other than Clarry on the end of a few chains in the first quarter. Its all sideways and/or lateral towards the left boundary. Maybe Essendrug are plugging the middle very well but....All this does is gives their mids, zone and defenders more time to set up and our forwards less chance of being hit up on a lead. The above also makes our forward line too congested. One of either Macca or Weid needs to be instructed to push up higher to make space out the back for others to lead into and/or Kozzie to crumb. And boy does he need to start doing the basics like front and square / crumbing. He's been super ordinary so far from what i have witnessed.
Won't be an issue LH. With that run up he'll need to play from here anyway...
I find when both these two (Macca & Weid) are in the same team playing forward they too often get in each others' road on the lead and/or both are leaping at the same incoming high ball far too often. Hopefully this can't happen tonight assuming Macca plays mostly back.
Ben Brown rarely rucks as we have two in the side already and they both play a fair bit of their time forward also which covers that aspect most of time. T-Mac usually takes more (rare) ruck duties than BB when he is played forward also. Mitch should have been the auto call up for BB after kicking 7. Astonished they gave Weid the nod....he did very little (on comparison to Mitch) in the VFL from what i witnessed. Mitch showed he was more than ready and looked to be marking everything. Goal accuracy right up there also vs Weid who is usually sub par on the big stage.
Unfortunately (or fortunately from a team perspective) me thinks they will be pinching votes from each other which will most likely prevent either from getting the chocolates. Not to mention the likes of Max, Jackson, Fritta, Viney etc popping up occasionally.
Yes that is correct Cards. The ball just doesn't spend as much time overall inside 50 i guess hence the forward's chances of racking up a relatively high statistical score (in these tables) is heavily dependant on tackles, getting the ball inside 50 (if they push up outside the arc), contested marks, marks inside 50, clearances (if they happen to get the odd one up forward ...pretty rare for a genuine forward), score involvements, tackles i50 & goals. These tables don't capture other areas of forward play like ground ball gets & pressure acts but then again they don't capture these two stats for any position on the field. To give you some idea of how a forward scores in these tables across a season here are the season average scores for our genuine forwards from last year from highest to lowest... T-Mac 2.516 K Pickett 2.378 B Fritsch 2.155 C Spargo 2.068 B Brown 1.855 (does not include the odd hit out to advantage up forward) J Melksham 1.853 S Weideman 1.055 and average scores across all 3 Finals... B Fritsch 2.583 (roughly 18% higher than his season ave) B Brown 2.508 (35% improvement on his season average!) C Spargo 2.117 (slightly above season ave) K Pickett 1.558 (fair way off season ave) T Mac 1.325 (well below season ave)
I didn't realise that was gone. Is it still available for Tesltra / Fox subscribers i wonder? I seem to recall a couple of D'landers had access to the full data set above and beyond the version we could all use and access via their Telstra / Fox subscription. That's a shame if this is corect as you could compare players in season as well as across their entire career. It also allowed you to drill down to see things like kicking accuracy, ground ball gets i50 etc, rather than generalised stats like disposal efficiency etc.
Round 2, 2022 Metricon - Suns vs Demons Bowey with the No.1 ranking! What an effort from the young rookie with less than 10 games experience. Quite incredible really. And of course rising star nominee for round two. His score in this round right up there with some of Clarry & Tracc's best statistical efforts (scores) over the last few years on these tables. His first half in particular was some game as he intercepted so many entries and set up so many rebounds when (i felt) we were under the pump somewhat. 16 intercepts in total for the night with the next best from either team being Tomo with 10 (great effort in his second game back). Top 5 Meters Gained > Tracc 780 (Sun's Touk Miller the best on the night with a massive 944...is he worth at least a 'run with' next time to cool him off a little... Harmes? However he does turn the ball over alot topping the tables with 9), May 625, Bowey 572, Tomlinson 527 & Clarry 521. Tracc would have scored / ranked higher here but for being our turnover leader on the night with a fairly hefty 8. Having said that he did get an awful lot of the pill. I couldn't really split Bowey, Tracc and Jackson on the night who i thought were, in their own fashion/style & roles, our top three players (visually from what i witnessed on the box anyway...can sometimes see things very differently at the ground of course). Team score of 67.05 was only a smidgen off that of the average team score of the top 22 players from last year (67.23). Although the humid / moist conditions probably had some say on the night, this might be an indicator that the Suns could well be a bit of a sleeper team to watch from here. They aren't that far behind us on the experience front either, tracking about 15 games (or approx one season) of experience (on average) behind the team we fielded on Sat night ... Average Attributes Gold Coast Attribute Melbourne 189.3cm Height 187.3cm 87.5kg Weight 87.6kg 25yr 0mth Age 25yr 4mth 82 Games 97.2 Player Score Rank Jake Bowey 6.300 1 C Oliver 5.150 2 A Tomlinson 4.800 3 Steven May 4.750 4 C Petracca 4.100 5 Tom Sparrow 4.075 6 Luke Jackson 4.050 7 James Harmes 4.025 8 Alex N-Bullen 3.975 9 James Jordon 3.975 10 A Brayshaw 3.175 11 Jack Viney 3.150 12 Ed Langdon 2.475 13 Trent Rivers 2.350 14 Max Gawn 2.225 15 Joel Smith 2.175 16 T McDonald 1.625 17 K Pickett 1.450 18 Ben Brown 1.200 19 Bayley Fritsch 1.000 20 Charlie Spargo 0.700 21 Jayden Hunt 0.325 22 Team Score 67.05 Top 6 29.18 Bottom 6 6.30 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com
Hope to see Lever & Hibb come back cherry ripe. Im sure the FD/Fitness crew wouldnt risk them if not ready as we have plenty of weeks ahead and fairly solid depth to cover. Trusting the FD/medics on this one and that they'll also get the balance right down back.
There were also three missed getable goals either side of three quarter time. Say we get two of those and add the insanely corrupt free kick goal to Weightman at the end of the first. We should have been up about 40 points a few minutes into the final quarter. The scoreline flattered the Dogs.
Is it any wonder Gil didnt get his record opening round crowd total! Think i'll be calling the club shortly pretending i'm old Siddy boy with no mobile phone and get an analogue entry membership card (or whatever it is)
Yes i noticed at one stage B Smith was jumping around to the left and right each time Clarry tried to get to the front position at a center bounce on one occasion. Clarry was highly amused and actually did a little jig of his own at one point while having a bit of a giggle.
Some interesting and very valid points DEE f thanks. Lets hope Viney can stay as fit as he appeared on Weds. Looked pretty sharp for mine and did some handy clean up work at the center bounces i felt.
Another howler of a decision was the one with about 2 minutes to go where Clarry was called for holding Macrae. They just had the usual side by side joust that you see 50 times a game in the middle bounce and Macrae broke away in front of Clarry to attempt to get to the ball drop. The whistle in that decision was one of the quickest calls ive ever witnessed....as if pre-determined. The other issue is the constant calling against Max at least once or twice in almost every game he plays for "blocking". Yet i witnessed something similar from English or at the least "front on contact" or simlar with no eyes on the bounce of the ball.....just looking straight at Maxy and jumping into him with both hands pushing into his shoulders ....yet zero free kicks for Max. Max appears to be being targeted in a biased manner by certain umps and this discrepancy needs to be raised by the FD with the AFL immediately and hit on the head before further damage is done in the coming weeks. Having said that, sometimes Max is often caught coming from behind which sees his arms draping over shoulders or hands in the back etc and the frees are there. So Max also needs to work on getting to the front a little more often to reduce the likelihood of being pinged so often and improve his own chances of receiving a few more himself imho.
Round 1, 2022 MCG - Demons vs Bulldogs Tracc backs up his amazing NS performance of 7.55 with a 7.35! Top 5 Meters Gained > Tracc 869 (Doggy's best...Macrae with 569), Clarry 549, Langden 446, May 384 & Viney 329 Have left Salem out as he played only 13% game time. Haven't watched the second half replay but Harmes must have turned things around pretty well in the second half to end up in the top 10 here. Nice result Jackson! Team score approx 5% off that of the average team score of the top 22 players from last year. Not bad given the outs down back and the loss of Salem early in the match. Player Score Rank C Petracca 7.350 1 C Oliver 5.125 2 Jack Viney 4.150 3 Ed Langdon 3.875 4 Alex N-Bullen 3.525 5 J Harmes 3.450 6 L Jackson 3.325 7 A Brayshaw 3.250 8 Ben Brown 3.150 9 Max Gawn 2.950 10 Steven May 2.825 11 James Jordon 2.675 12 Tom Sparrow 2.250 13 Joel Smith 2.200 14 T McDonald 2.150 15 Jayden Hunt 1.975 16 Jake Bowey 1.850 17 Toby Bedford 1.825 18 Charlie Spargo 1.700 19 Bayley Fritsch 1.675 20 K Pickett 1.650 21 A Tomlinson 0.975 22 Team Score 63.90 Top 6 27.48 Bottom 6 9.68 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com
