binman

Blimey, even Hemingway can't process more than 280 characters these days!

An other potential upside of Oliver being out is it creates an opportunity for JJ. JJ' s best spot in my opinion is as a true mid, so Oliver's' injury could prove a blessing in disguise by giving him the chance to cement his spot in the team as a mid - and potentially change the trajectory of JJ's career (ie he might stay, not leave to get a permanent spot in the ones)

1. i agree. I am big Smithy fan, but i i agree his defensive work on Tom Stewart and Nick Haynes was not good enough. he was given a chance to establish himself in the team, but unfortunately i don't think he took it. It will be interesting to see if he is sub. 2. Could not agree more - does my head in. I mean it is 6 years since the tigers won the their first flag and changed football. One such change was bringing the concept of players given a specific role with KPIs specific to that role (never number the number of possessions - and to explode the head of many, not necessarily even goals for forwards, like the high half forward role Nibbler and Spargo play)

Some additional context for my post about the ins MT: My perspective on selection is informed by a belief that we are coming to the end of s heavy block of training designed to maximize the likelihood we are cherry ripe come finals This block of training exacerbates the accumulative fatigue of the season and individual matches (like last weeks game, which would have been super tiring given our contest numbers and the weather) The form of the team suffers as result of this fatigue, as does the form of individual players - with some, particularly younger players, being impacted more than others [Note: even if you are of view that fatigue is only a minor consideration, or don't believe we do a mid season heavy block of training that impacts our performance, the fact remains the pattern is crystal clear. This is third season in a row where we have had a significant mid season slump characterized by losses in games when favorite, a drop off in skills, a drop off in performance by the team and individual players (particularly younger players) and chronic inaccuracy. So whatever someone's explanation is for that pattern, surely one of them can't be that it's just a weird coincidence] The coaching panel are juggling multiple, often competing, imperatives in terms of selection for the games in this phase of the season - picking a team that can win the game, load management of the team, load management of individual players, development of individual players and most of all maximizing the chances of winning a flag The campaign is not about winning the individual battles (but of course you have to win enough of those battles to be top 4), it is about winning the war - as much as the footy media would love fans to believe it, each game isn't a must win game, an isolated event or a litmus test on premiership chances So, just as i suggested prior to the Cats game when i predicted Spargo would be the sub for load management reasons, the selection would be different for the Saints' game if their sole imperative was to win the game - if it was, JVR probably gets selected As an example of how my perspective informs my thinking on selection, I agree Spargo has been down on form the last few weeks but i think fatigue is likely the main cause (same is true of Chandler, who needs a chop out and is getting one, and other players too) and as opposed to dropping him for form, they are managing his game time as part of his fitness program I always find the debate on selection a little hard to engage with because it's often not clear to me whether posters are expressing an opinion on who they think should be selected or who they think will be selected Normally, i am in the latter camp So when i predicted earlier in this thread the ins would be Woey (who had been announced at that point), Jordon and Spargo, it was based on my prediction of what would happen, not what i think should happen And that prediction was informed by all of the above dot points So, for example, i view JVR's non-selection through the lens of the club wanting to give a young player a break from the rigors of senior AFL football (he is only 19, and in his second season, which is crazy young for a key forward), to enhance his development as a player. work on deficits and maximize the likelihood he is fit, firing and in ripping form come finals I find some of the criticism of selection ironic, as sometimes it comes from posters who this time last year were vociferously bemoaning Goody's so called stubbornness, refusal to be more flexible with selection, not bringing in fresh players from Casey, not managing players, not rewarding form at Casey, and, horrors of horrors, not copying the Cats 'squad mentality' There's a double irony, because before the season started, goody, almost as if answering his DL critics, said we would 100% be taking a different approach to selection this season and taking more of a squad mentality And Goody has been true to his word - and of course still gets slammed by some of the very same posters knocking him last year for his static selection policy I don't share the sky is falling, jumping at shadows vibe that permeates DL at this time of year (well, the last three years) - we are tracking fine and in my opinion will make top 4 and win the flag To be clear, i also accept there is a very good chance we won't win the flag. To demonstrate what i mean by this seeming contradiction, for the sake of argument, let's say the Pies' current odds with the bookies (aprox $3 - which translates to 2-1) are an accurate reflection of the 'true odds' of them winning the flag. At those odds, if the season is played out 100 times, even as 2-1 favorites they still lose lose 40 times. By the by, i don't care what team it is - $3 for any time of the year is ridiculously short odds (under the 'true' odds) given so many things could go wrong between now and the end of September that could negatively impact their chances of winning the flag - eg Nick Daicos tears his hammy badly in round 24. Taking $3 now for the Pies to win the flag is the equivalent of backing the favorite for the Melbourne Cup on the futures market 3 months out from the race - a bet the bookies salivate over as it is money for jam for them. Which is why they have a futures market. I had the same view in 2021 and again last season. I could care less if that view is again dismissed as being delusional. By the by, my perspective on the arc of the season has sometimes been dismissed on the grounds that i was somehow proven 'wrong' last year because we got knocked out of the finals in straight sets. That opinion is logically inconsistent if it is not also accepted i was right in 2021. I'm batting .500 - not bad when talking predicting flags.

Nup. VFL is 100% a chop out - way, way less intense, shorter quarters and because the stakes are not as high, much more flexibility to manage minutes or for example, give a player some specific things to work on and/or play a different role (which might be about helping him work on specific things - eg sending a forward back to improve his defensive skills - or just to free him up to get his hands on the pill). See goody's comments about why they ran spargo through Casey after his concussion (precis: the lower intensity of the vfl meant we could ease him back in after what was a bad concussion)

LN must be reading this thread right now and loving it - 'i can manipulate the DL sheeple even when i don't post!

I don't know what your deal is, but I'm heartily sick of sick of the complete lack of respect you, and some others, show the coach of the football team i love and support. I'm putting you on ignore because I'm sick of my team being attacked on a forum I post on because supposedly it is dees 'fan' forum.

Doing a job each week isn't he.

Good ins. Jordon into the middle off a dominant display. Spargo best 22, provides defensive run as a high half forward and will help with our kicks inside 50. Has been managed and should be in good nick. Woey rewarded for hard work, brings the buzz of a debutante- a father son of one of few Charlie winners ti boot. From goody's comments, JVR has some work to do on his game (and possibly fitness?). He'll be back in the next couple of matches, and is best 22. They want him cherry ripe in the finals not mid winter. Good development of a very young player to be playing as a key tall.

I reckon there's a good chance smithy will be the sub. In some ways, with his athleticism and ability to play tall, he's the perfect sub as he can play so many roles (albeit to variable levels).

I'm not that down on it. One thing in its favour is it is very easy to find your seats and navigate. And it's great viewing from all seats, including where I usually sit - top stand behind the goals. I live in altona, so coming in by train is great because it's quick and southern Cross is only a couple of minutes to the ground.

Can't quite, put my finger on it, or properly explain it, but I agree with the feeling the place is soulless. I find the lighting weird when the roof is closed - which it is all the time now. Too dull. And with the roof closed creates I find the acoustics are a bit weird too. And funnily enough, games are now often scrappy, congested and low scoring. I say funnily enough, because it used to be high scoring ground because of the controlled conditions. But all team defence and zones creates congestion because the ground is so narrow.

I thought jvr would be an in, but that doesn't sound likely based on goody's comments - which is no bad thing. As goody said he is only a kid, probably needed a chop out and of course still has lots of things to improve and develop in his game I think in addition to woey, jordon and spargo will both come back in to the 23. Fritter out obviously. Melksham to cime out, jordon possibly the sub. That's two. Harmes would be my guess for the third out.

I haven't watched that many casey games, but I think he has predominantly played as a pure winger. That was certainly his role when he came on against the saints in the preeason game (from memory, replacing langdon).

Actually, woey's incredible fitness and running power was also ahead of its time.

Doubly so, because apparently he was a very good chance to be selected in round one before he broke his thumb. That's three of the WA boys, JVR Mcvee and woey jnr, who all did some serious running work over their XMAS break back on Perth and have made the seniors. Great reward for hard work. The year woey snr won the Brownlow he was brilliant. In some ways he was ahead of his time- his run and carry and efficient ball use would fit perfectly into the best sides now.

They won't be able to do hardly work between flying out late Sunday night, Monday a wipeout and suit up Friday night. So, agree hopefully they'll be fresher. They'll love not playing in frigid wet conditions- something they would not have planned for in their program given the game was in the Alice. That game will have taken alot out of them. Maybe good to roll some fresh players through? I expect spargo to come back in, maybe jordon and jvr. So that's three. Unlikely to he any more than 3 changed But it helps the saints are also off six day break and had to travel back from Perth. I still reckon we are a couple of weeks away from being cherry ripe.

Fair enough RP. Apologies, i wasn't trying to create a Lord Nev style gotcha circular argument. I am life long punter on the ponies. That experience has informed how i analyze football. For example, critical data for horse punters is the form. Obviously current form, but even more important is historical form and patterns - both for specific horses and more broadly (for example the record of international 3 year olds in the Melbourne cup). I apply the same lens to footy and the dees trajectory. Of course history is not a iron clad predictor of future events, but it is an excellent guide - in horses and footy. Based on the evidence and history, i strongly believe that in all probability, that by round 19 or 20 the way we play will change, just as it did in 2021 and 2022, with our scores going up, the game style being more expansive and looking like rounds 1-6 this year. And it wont be because we (not suggesting these are your views, well except for pulling the finger out) : Have rediscovered our dare (like it was hiding behind the couch) Pulled our finger out Just decided to play differently Stood up Recognized the folly of our current method Any other mystical explanation It will be, just like a horse trainer plotting to win a group one race, because it is a forensically planned out campaign.

Fair question. He has the green light to tale on risky kicks, which might explain those numbers a bit. I rate him as elite kick, but perhaps you're right and I'm over rating his kicking skills.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

No, I'm asking you a simple question. Do you think the way we play will change as we approach the finals, as it did in 2021 and 2022, with our scores going up and the game style being more expansive and looking like rounds 1-6 this year? I'm not asking how we might achieve that, I'm asking if you think we will go back to the way we played in our preseason and round 1-6. It's not a trick question. And It is really a yes or no answer - maybe is a bit wishy washy.

Agree on all points. It is definitely a high wire act. It is a fascinating question I think as to how much teams are prepared to risk losing in the home and away season to increase their chances of winning a flag. I think the dogs and tigers fundamentally changed the calculation for many teams. Both teams played a style unsuited to playing a full home and away season - as their results attested. But a style definitely suited to winning a flag. Recent history is crystal clear, the brutal, chaos football the tigers introduced is the template - since 2017 the only winner play8ng a different style outlier was the eagles in 2018 (ironically after the tigers had their best home and away season almost ever, only to lose the prelim as 1.40 favs). If you include the dogs win (diff approach, but still chaotic) six of the seven flags have been won by teams using very similar methods. In that same period, the lions, Port and the cats (until they famously changed course ladt year) were brilliant performers in the home and away phase, and perennial top 4s, but couldn't get it done when it counted. Fans happy rounds 1-23. Not so happy come finals. Meanwhile, goody is in his seventh season as an AFL coach, has made finals in only three of those seasons (will be four this year) - making a preliminary in 2018, a flag in 2021 and our in straight sets last year (having earned a double chance). I'd take that record over say, ken Hinckley, who despite having incredible resources, strong teams and a pronounced home ground advantage, has not even made a GF, let alone win one. Much the same could be said about Fagan and the lions.

Basically, with the advent of tbe sophisticated defensive zoens, every team is the same forward line game plan, including the pies. The exception is the cats and the lions, who both try to engineer as much space as possible to give Hawkins, daniher, hipwood and Cameron opportunities to be one out. But even doing so, as soon as the ball is stopped zones get back and it becomes all but impossible to find space ot take contested marks. The only way to create space now in footy, is win the ball from centre clearances whilst the 6 6 6 is still in force (which was brought in for exactly this reason - create space and one on ones in the forward line by stopping teams flooding their defensive zone) OR go fast on transition so teams can't get their defensive zones set. The latter is basically the pies game plan, and how we played preseason and rounds 1-6. I know this sounds a little fey, but i really wish dees fans had more faith in goody. He has well and earned that with our team's first flag in 57 years. If that holds no water because it is history, then I don't want to hear about the program not working last year. We won't flick a switch as such, more slowly open the valve. And if they have got their fitness program right, we will soon (rounds 19 or 20?) be back to our offensive, fast transition best. Stay the course people. Have some faith. It's all about winning the war, not the battles

Spot on jnr. I didn't see this post before making my previous one. 'My observation is that during pre-season and the early part of this season we were playing a lot more daring football and kicking angles into the corridor. Hence our accuracy at goal as many of the shots were front and centre. But as we have seen in the past 5 weeks it has shifted dramatically to old style of kick along the boundary and bomb the ball into our fwd line.' This is exactly right. In a nutshell, it is my contention that in the middle of the season they don't have the run in the legs to implement the model you describe we employed in the first third of this season (and in the first halves against the pies and lions ladt season,and the back end of 2021). But will employ again if we can get the run in our legs back. The interesting question is whether goody should modify the model now to mitigate the core elements of the game plan that make brutal and blunt now (forward half pressure, contest, reentries etx etc). Essentially adopt a new, or at least modified sytem. Or if doing so risks players not instinctively understanding the system and the role they play in it come finals. Goody has clearly gone with the latter philosophy (though had def made some adjustments this season in this mid year phase eg reinforcing the defensive focus, less rusky kick etc). And one assumes that is because it will increase our chances of winning the flag.

A serous question rpfc. Do you think the way we play will change as we approach the finals, as it did in 2021 and 2022, with our scores going up and the game style being more expansive and looking like rounds 1-6 this year?