binman

"Hear now this, O foolish people, and without understanding; which have eyes, and see not; which have ears, and hear not." Jer. 5:21 (King James version)

The first rule of demonland. Anything football related story represents evidence goody is a rubbish coach.

No, fresh text every time! Which now that i think about it is pretty silly. But the search function on DL is a shocker so it takes ages to find previous post once they are more than a few months old But that it for this season on this topic. I'm done. I'm not sure why i bother to be honest - i'm not gong to convince any naysers who aren't convinced by now. I'm going to take your advice and go back and copy and paste all my recent posts on the topic into the word document. And this time next year copy and paste with some minor edits to make it 2024 simpatico. It will save me a lot of hours!

I accept your apology dazzler. Let's move on But not before i break my own ban on this topic only hours after making it! A central argument i am making is that fatigue from loading is a key factor to consider when assessing any game of footy at this time of year. In terms of our games, i think it is the biggest factor in our middling form since, and inclusive of, the Freo game. And that includes the Pies game (i think both teams were impacted by fatigue in that game - the pies more than us actually, which is one reason I'm not reading too much into that win). But of course, it is far from the only factor. And i fully concede that i might be wrong and that is not the biggest factor. But it is 100% a factor - the only real debate is how big a factor. I don't necessarily agree with all of them, but you make some really good points about the issues that concern you - eg forward connection, team selection, game plan and form of some players. Where we diverge is my belief those issues all intersect with fatigue and the impact of a heavy block of mid season training. And so, i don't agree the issues you highlight have nothing to do with loading Take selection. You suggested the team selection for this game had 'nothing to do with loading'. But i don't think that is true. Goody said at the beginning of the year he would use the sub as a tactical option OR related to load management. My assumption the reason Spargo was selected as a sub this week was for load management reasons (interestingly he was gassed, and subbed off last week for Jordon and they reversed roles this week with Jordon coming of for Spargo. Coincidence? Unlikely). So, if I'm correct, it very much has something to do with loading. Perhaps as a young player, who is absolutely in our best 22, Bowey really struggled with the big block of training and because the goal is for him to be cherry ripe come finals they decided the best course of action was to play him in the lower intensity VFL game. In this scenario, that would be a decision very much informed by loading. Similarly, a factor in the the form slump you mention some players are in might be fatigue. I guess it depends on how long you think Pickett, Langdon, Gawn, Spargo, Chandler, ANB, and May have been in a form slump, but if you mean the last 3-4 weeks, well, that coincides with the loading phase. So it is reasonable to at least consider that as a causal factor - particularly for young players like Koz and Chandler. So again, form of players DOES have something to do with loading (in this period). I 100% agree the way we played against the Dogs and Sydney is how we want to play and that involves playing a fast attacking brand and sling shotting off half back to generate scoring pressure. That will be the game plan we will take into the finals. But ONLY if we are fit enough to execute that game plan - from the start of the game to the last minute. And the only way they can be confident of being fit enough to execute that game plan come finals is to do the loading now (which is the point Scott was making last year about being prepared to miss the 8 because they are going hard to increase their chances of winning the flag) - but as we saw last year, that is still no guarantee of course that, for any number of reasons (eg injury) we will be fit enough when the whips are cracking. You are right to say we've reverted back to the slow ball movement style (but only in the last 3-4 weeks) which gets picked apart. The question is why? The dogs was round one and the swans round three. At no point in the rest of this season will we be fitter and stronger than we were in those two games. Which is critical context because the game plan we saw in those matches involves a crazy level of all team high speed running. If we are not close to optimal fitness (like right now), we cant execute that game plan properly. The Pies method is even more reliant on running power. The all team high speed running and spread required for our preferred game plan is impossible to propery implement when the team is collectively fatigued. Which i think is why Goody has really emphasized defence in the last few weeks. One, to mitigate the impact of fatigue (less ballistic footy is less aerobically taxing). And two, we will struggle to win if we stick with our preferred game plan but don't have the run in the legs to implement it properly (ironically goody was criticised in 2021 and 2022 on DL for being too rigid with the game plan and not trying new things). So, the game plan is very much is related to loading - both in the sense of the loading giving them a shot at being fit enough come finals and as it relates to the impact of the fatigue on our ability to execute/implement our preferred method. The point i'm driving at is, of course loading is not an excuse or the only factor for our performance in our recent matches - but IT IS an important factor to consider, precisely BECAUSE it intersects with, and impacts, all of the many other factors and variables at play. It is that intersection that interests me. I don't feel i can understand the game without considering these intersections. As a thought experiment, try to explain why all teams have lost after the bye thus far WITHOUT factoring in fatigue (surely 10 teams can't all find it hard to mentally get going and switch on after a bye - which is the only explanation i have heard from the footy media so far). I take your point about the Pies kicking five two in the last today. I'm not sure if you watched the game, but they had no run. They were run off their feet in the third and looked nothing like they do at their rampaging best. But if you factor in fatigue then the assessment of the game changes. The key factor in that game was BOTH teams were coming off their bye, and therefore a heavy training block. Both teams struggled in the last. So for the Pies to kick 5.2 in the last under fatigue is super impressive and I mark their performance up for that. Outside say the four best kicks in each team, across the board they have much better kicks than us, with superior technique. Good technique hold up better under pressure and fatigue than poor technique. Our poor technique is being exposed ATM. Saying loading is a factor in our current accuracy issues (or our turnover clangers - ugh) doesn't diminish the fact that our kicking IS an issue of concern. The Cats kicked 6.2 in the last quarter in wet and heavy conditions and ran all over the top of us - because they were clearly not feeling the effects of loading to the same degree as they were the previous week, when coming off their bye. In their Port game they completely ran out of gas in the last quarter. But the Cats v Dees was their second post bye match. And, in a mirror to their performance against Port, they ran over the top of us in the last - exactly like the Suns and Freo (who were both out on their feet last week in their post bye matches) did to the Hawks and bombers this round.

Dazzler, i haven't been true to my word as stayed out of the loading discussion this year. I'm trying though. Why? Because of posts like the one above. To be perfectly honest, i find comments like 'If you think there isn't far more pressing concerns other then your 'loading' fantasy then you're delusional once again. Bit like last year' flat out insulting (as i assume most would). But leaving aside the puerile insults (which by in large i think you would agree i don't stoop to), i'm thoroughly over having my words and opinions on this topic being completely misrepresented. There a million such examples in the last 3 seasons when this discussion comes up - the making excuses and some promise to win the flag being the two most common variants. But this is yet another example (i mean who would think this, for all the reasons you point out - how stupid do yo think i am?) : The fact that you genuinely think that the cats the just clicked their fingers and realised that all those years it was all just due to loading is a [censored] take from your end. What really frustrates me is that i am hesitant to make a point, or post, about the impact of faitgue from loading, and hope to have some sort of nuanced discussion about it, for fear of being ridiculed and howled down by posters for whom the tipic seems to trigger some sort of irrational angst. But that's where we are.

Sorry, dazzler, that is just absolute rubbish - as I have already noted at length in response to a similar comment from you a couple of weeks back. The cats, having run out of gas come the pointy end of the season for about a decade, and knowing they had to change something, won the flag copying our program for pete's sake. And please, do me a favor and stop this bulltish about excuses. No one is making any excuses. No one. Not a single person would disagree with the fact that playing that game at Kardinia Park was a FACTOR in our loss. But that's apparently OK to say. But it so triggering to some to suggest fatigue from loading was a factor. I mean, how else to explain how the Cats, who post bye last week ran out of gas completely in the last q against Port, could out run the team with the best 4th quarter record in the AFL. Or how our pressure rating could drop from a crazy high 214 in the third to 163 in the last quarter (by way of contrast the cats, second game post bye, had a rating of 197 in the 3rd, but had enough in the tank to increase it to 204 in the last). Sheesh.

Very similar to the vaxers v anti vaxers. FWIW I'm on the vaxers side.

Good for making money off but.

He's filling our a bit too. A lot to like.

Of course it isn't a guaranteed win. They're a good team.

All excellent points AF. I'd add one more (and then stay out of it, i mean who can be bothered - if someone is not convinced by the mountain of evidence by now - teams losing after the bye being just one more - then their minds are made up). Our fitness fell away late in the 2022 season. Some argue that is evidence against the fact we did a mid season heavy block of training (which frankly is just assinine). Well, the obvious counter is that whilst it did not work for us - it DID work for the cats, who openly said they copied our approach (and acknowledged that a factor in their perennial failure to win a flag despite finishing top 4 in mutiple seasons was running our of gas late in the season) The cats ran out the season as powerfully as we did in 2021, and like us had a clear fitness edge over all other teams (bar perhaps the pies). It was a massive factor in their dominant run from aprox this point in the 2022 season. Having adopted our mid season heavy block of training, the Cats won the flag. So, the last two flags, at least, have been won by teams who have done a mid season heavy block of training. No doubt it is industry standard now. Not that you'd know that listening to media people scratch their heads trying to explain how freo, coming off a bye and clearly fatigued, could be so, so poor against the giants. And play so well the very next, beating a top 8 team convincingly, looking a completely different side, and magical running over the ground and looking fresh. Same deal for the suns, who fell in a heap last week, and were out of gas and look a completely different team today (against the hawks, who out ran and smashed the post bye lions just a couple of weeks back). Or even amusingly, how they will explain why so far, if the suns go on to win their game against the hawks, the only two teams who have won after the bye have played a team also coming off a bye (saints and pies).

There is no doubt they are an incrediblely fit team.

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I was being facetious Jaded. That said - why on earth would you be concerned we'll beat the crows? Because we got beaten the by the cats and the umpires at a ground they have a huge advantage at, the week after being far too good for the supposedly unbeatable pies?

When?

The Pies scoring issue is a real concern. Imagine only just beating that mob? Twice.

It must be a contractual obligation - do not point out when nick daicos turns the ball over.

Pies - 14 shots at goal from 36 inside 50s @ 39% . They can stop back half transition from the pies. Their all team defence is sub par. Has the pies bubble burst? I mean, on the g, against a team just in the 8 and who can't win away from home, surely the pies go on to win this game. If they don't they are not real contenders.

Perfect day for football. Four and a bit minutes from 3 quarter times. And the pies only have 14 shots from 33 inside 50s @ 42%. Im really starting to worry about their scoring and connection issues issues.

Amazing how different look when they don't have run in their legs. I'm reallt worried abour their difficulty scoring and their connection issues.

Of course it isn't a coincidence. And the pies get yet another leg up being the only contender who, coming off a bye, get to play another team coming off a bye (added bounus, Burgess is their fitness coach, so we know the crows have been smashed on the track in their bye period)

Rivers has taken his game to another level this season. I'm loving his intercept marking.

My second best bet of the round (lions to cover their line was #1) - Freo to cover their minus 5.5 line. The only reason i'm not more bullish is the predicted rain creates some variables

Damn, forgot this game was on tonight. Tried to get to the replay without seeing the score - to no avail.

No you're right, all are good value because of the post bye factor. But what I'm saying is many punters will have marked the lions down because they were poor against the hawks. But got the symptoms right, but the diagnosis of the problem wrong - the key factor in their loss was fatgue. Same for freo. A good recipie for value.