binman

All of which makes me laugh anew at suggestions Oliver was soft for not playing with blisters.

This. At club land they no doubt don't worry about media noise, and the Pies for instance would be under no illusions about who are the key rivals and the threat they pose. But it can't hurt to have the whole footy media, and therefore most footy fans too, think the Pies method is the template for success that all other clubs have to find a 'blueprint' to defeat. And so the starting point for every single analysis of who might win the flag is that the Pies are unquestionably the best team and ipso facto have the best method. And therefore the starting point for the analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of any contender, us for instance, is what they have to do to counter the Pies. As opposed to what weapons and strategies they have the Pies might have to worry about (which if they ever get to that point, is almost an afterthought). So, for example, where is the discussion about whether, when the whips are cracking come finals, the Pies can physically match the power and strength of the lions and the dees' mids and flankers? I mean after all, they lost two finals last year in part because the Swans and Cats were too tough in the clinches. And they have lost to two of three games this season against key rivals in the lions and the dees - and in both games they were physically outmatched. We had to deal with that constant scrutiny last year - how do you beat the dees? By mid season, the consensus was you simply can't beat the dees if you play slow and allow us to get set defensively. Playing fast was the only avenue to beating us. And that is where the game has gone - fast transition. Teams like Carlton who were slow to that party are now desperately trying to retool their method. Slow won't cut. The pies are being lauded for introducing a 'new' exciting method, which is fair enough i guess. But it was the dees that forced that shift in footy because it was clear we were nigh on unbeatable if we were allowed to control the tempo and oppo transition was slow. The big difference between the focus on how to defeat our method in 2022 and the focus this season of how to beat the Pies' method, is we were coming of winning a flag in one of most dominant finals series EVER. And the Pies are coming off a 2022 season where they lost two of three finals and failed to even make the Grand Final, let alone win it. The Cats, basically took our territory, forward half footy, contested ball game plan as the template and tweaked it a bit - and won the flag. Meaning the last two flags have been won by teams with very similar methods By the by, it's worth noting that the Cats, like us in 2021, really got rolling in the last two months of the season and again like us, starting playing much faster and really hammered teams. In their last three home and away games, the Cats smashed their opposition, scoring 110 points against the Saints, 119 against the Suns and 131 against the Eagles. Then come finals they scored only 78 points against the Pies, but scored 120 points against the Lions, smashing them by 71 points before destroying the Swans in the Grand Final scoring 133 to win by 81. The last two GFs have been won by teams playing a very similar method, which in turn is based on the uber successful Tigers' method. The tigers won the flag in 2020, 2019 and 2017. Meaning you could make a case that five of the last six flags have been won by teams with relatively similar methods and game plans. Why then is the Pies method the template for success this season? It defies logic and history (replicate what flag winners do). But i'm sure Goody is fine with the Pies being held up as the templar.

That is true - but they have no such excuse for the next AFLW season.

Agree, then there could be new talking point for the footy media every year - Gerard Whately: with modern footballers and boots being so much better, and the distances they can kick, they really needed to give the goals some protection. Dunstall: i don't' agree Gerard, i'm traditionalist and having row of gum trees 30 metre out directly in front of the goals that players have to kick over just doesn't feel right - what's next a water hazard? Gerard: it's not 1992, the game must evolve. David King: according to Champion Data 38% of all kicks from the 53 metre mark have 16% chance of scoring which is higher than 15% and so the data is clear on this - we need more data to be clear on this. But to be clear i think Freo will finish top 4 this year, because they play the gum tree so well. Dunstall - didn't you say last week Freo would finish bottom of the ladder? King- yes, but i thought they were planting the Nyssa sylvatica not the Tristaniopsis laurina

That is an excellent point LH. In his DL interview, Selwyn made that exact point - the late notice on the fixture gave them no time to prepare. Andy interviewed him in aprox mid March, and in relation to a question about their planning for their fitness program said at least this year they know the fixture up to round 15, which unlike last year, meant they could properly plan out almost the full season program properly. That said he did also say that the nine-day bye break was a real challenge, particularly in terms of player mentally refreshing. But you're right, there is no doubt they are much better prepared this season, and as -coach- and others have noted it might even be an advantage having the nine day bye - particularly if they can engineer another break for some players, for example the Perth boys and Koz to get home. On last year, given the science of fitness preparation and how exact it all is, it beggars' belief that the AFL could even consider not setting the fixture in stone up to round 15 last season.

We did indeed. And what is interesting about that win against the Lions (who i think were super fatigued by the way), is the similarities to this year: It was Round 15 It was post bye for us (but unlike the Cats this year, was also post bye for the lions) It of course followed our round 13 Queens Birthday game against Collingwood They also inexplicably scheduled it on a Thursday night Which meant that, like this season, we only had 9-day bye break BUT there is one big difference to last year - this season there is an extra round. The 2023 season started on the same date as the 2022 season (16 March). And we played our last game in 2022 on 19 August. The last round hasn't been set yet, but if we play the Swans on say the Saturday (we played the Lions on the Friday last year - but this season we play Hawks on the Sunday in round 23 so they surely won't give us a five-day break), that will mean our final game is on 26 August - a week later than last season.

It is a good point. Last year, in one of the discussions about loading, i can't recall which poster it was, but they noted exactly this point - aerobic and power capacity is iterative and takes years to build and that with a group progressing together they start the new season at a higher level than say team first embarking on their collective journey - so will get to a higher level again at the end of the new cycle.

Rouge one is the second best Star Wars film in my humble. Fantastic, and much underrated film

Terrific post SD. Alot to unpack. Very little to disagree with but - you've nailed it I reckon. I really like your analysis of our 2022 season. Personally, I had have the probability of us winning of 30%, 25% pies and lions, 15% port and 5% a team outside the top 4 I'm still on the fence a bit with port, think pies are overrated and think the lions have the advantage of a very experienced list who have played mutiple finals together- which has historically been a good recipe. That said tbey are too slow. For port and the lions much will depend on whether they can get a home final week one, particularly the lions who would go into a week one final at the gabba after finisihing top or 2nd favourite no matter who they play. I really hope the pies play them up there week one.

Did they ask about our connection and forward issues?

I thinks that's the key THBTS - only having four days away from the club, and all that entails, means mentally refreshing must be so much harder, particularly as you say for the interstate boys (we have lots of WA boys - a four day break is not much time to get there and back seeing its a 7 hour round trip juts in the air). After having already had six months of going hard at this point, a huge part of the challenge to get the players physically prepared and motivated to keep pushing super hard must be the psychological aspect. And having a decent break to mentally refresh must help most players (a caveat on that - i wonder if the poor record of many clubs post bye is at all related to some players losing their mental edge a bit with say 7 days completely away from their club) By contrast, the Pies players had the same compulsory four days off we had but also had the weekend off. So not back to the club till this morning. Meaning for interstaters (or players who wanted to get decent break at say Noosa etc), if they flew out of Melbourne Monday night after the game and back on Sunday, they get a decent break.

An interesting bit of context for that is we had the same issue last year with the nine day bye and so they would have learnt a lot about how best to manage it

@kev martin A question Kev. I heard Chad Wingard talk about the practice of having match sim and/or structural drills with with the ones v second 18, with the the latter replicating the set up, structures and ball movement of team we are playing next. Have you seen us do that?

One of the spookiest, most unsettling songs i've ever heard. Something about it freaks me out. There is half decent Netflix series called Mindhunters about early CIA efforts to profile and catch serial killers. That song was used on the soundtrack for one of the killers in his perfect, weird home (Son of Sam?)

Banned from or banned for? I mean, we do love to punish teams.

How about BDSM? Asking for a friend.

How could we only beat the Suns by a few points if the blues can [censored] them? Jeez the dees are rubbish! How could only bet the blues by a couple of goals when they could beat the Suns so easily? Jeez the dees are rubbish! Yes, we beat the Tigers, but they beat the Saints and the Saints are the opposite to demons. Jeez the dees are rubbish! How could we lose to Freo, coz they got flogged by the Giants and we probably will too. Jeez the dees are rubbish! Have i got it right? Isn't that how it works?

Nice of them to schedule the first ashes test and the us golf open during our bye round.

Does DL have Russian bot accounts?

We lost deliberately. Tricked freo into thinking they were a top 4 chance. So they figured they better load hard to be cherry ripe preliminary final day. Did so, and barely raise a trot in this game. No run at all.

Good question. I suspect they think they are contenders. Remember Scott's comment last year explaining why they had embraced the dees mid season increased block around the bye period? He said they'd rather miss the 8 because they lost matches due to going hard than go into the finals without the conditioning to win the flag. Give up some battles to increase the chance of winning the war.

Trigger warning. Clearly, freo are uber fatigued. They have no run in their legs AT ALL, hence no overlap run, spread or ability to cover outlet kicks or slow the giants' transition at all. The goal the giants kicked in the last second of the third was the perfect example. No question in my mind they are in the middle, or had just completed a heavy block of aerobic conditioning. Probably expansion why giants were short priced favorites. I note this because we have been in the same boat the last three season, including this year. Fatigue has been a factor in our surprising mid season losses. But WE HAVE NEVER folded like freo are now. All our losses have been close. We have willed ourselves to keep in touch, have pushed through the pain and fatigue barrier. As dees, fans, should be proud of, and laud those efforts, Freo have done the opposite. Hugely concerning attitude and mindset. Alarm bells ringing if you are a freo fan.

No it doesn't, and that's one of the problems.

We lost deliberately. Tricked freo into thinking they were a top 4 chance. So they figured they better load hard to be cherry ripe preliminary final day. Did so, and barely raise a trot in this game. No run at all.

This is fun