binman

Excellent point jnr. A real upside of Oliver's injury is the extra minutes and responsibility JJ and sparrow have got in the middle. Also means when Oliver does come back JJ and Sparrow are in great nick. Can only help at the pointy end - and creates options for Goody. For example, if they run a hard tag on Oliver, he can sacrifice his game and drag the tag away from the contest, or go forward if need be, and JJ and Sparrow can pick up the slack. And as we have seen already, also gives Goody much more flexibility in how he uses tracc in terms of his mid forward mix (by the by, hard not to love tracc as as a forward - in part because i love his emotion when he kicks goals. It really pumped up the energy of the crowd on Frida night).

I love this.

Me too.

That's an interesting question, one I've been pondering since i saw that data yesterday and was also reflecting on after the blues game. Was planning on raising on the podcast (we discussed this a bit after the blues game). My initial thoughts is that i think a factor in the low pressure numbers in this game, and the blues game, relates to how both of those teams played - and how we responded to their method. Comparing the Lions game with the Pies King's Birthday game, both games felt high pressure watching, but perhaps on Friday night more in the sense that it was a tense, enthralling contest between two genuine contenders that finished in high drama? But what were the differences in how the Pies and the Lions (and the blues) played and how we responded. And how might that impact the pressure numbers. These were the pressure numbers from the Pies game: Q1: 176 - 180 Q2: 174 - 172 Q3: 201 - 206 Q4: 186 - 177 Tot: 183 - 186 The big difference in the way the two games were played is the Pies played their game against us and ran at us they way they like to do - chaining handballs until they find an outside kicker in space to take on a high risk kick to the corridor. We responded to that method by denying them time and space by: having our defensive zone set high to create density take the corridor away from them and force them down the line really getting up in their grill as the Pies went forward with frontal pressure (ie dees players ahead of the ball peeling of their man and running at the ball carrier) Sweating on their mids and flankers sitting on the outside waiting for the ball to be fed out From wheelo def, pressure points for players are the weighed sum of pressure acts. I assume the same true is of the team's pressure ratings (i also assume the teams' ratings is the players ratings aggregated?) Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. The way we responded to the Pies method by denying them time and space ticks all the above boxes in terms of how pressure points are accumulated. But against the Lions and the Blues we didn't press up nearly as aggressively or apply the same level of pressure frontal pressure. And out zone wasn't set as high. The Lions came with a plan to use the width of the G to move our defensive zone around, i think to pull Lever and may apart to minimize their intercepting ability and to expose them one on one. To that end, they switched more than any team against us since perhaps the first half of last season. We let them do so, and never really pressed up. The blues did something similar, but more i think because they couldn't get through our zone going in straight line. And now that i think about it, the saints also did something similar and tried to control possession of the ball - and the pressure numbers were low in that match too. So, with the ball getting switched side to side, fewer opportunities to aggregate pressure points because there is less corralling, closing acts and chasing acts. And less contests. And added to that we went fast in the first and last quarters, with the ball in motion and lots of wave running that creates space around the and ahead of the ball. Very much how the Pies love to play. But unlike us against the Pies, the Lions didn't really look to deny us space, for example by pressing up or frontal pressure - which meant fewer pressure acts like corralling, closing acts and chasing. So, to your question about my analysis of the ‘pressure ratings’, i think they are really useful indicator as evidenced by the fact clubs use them during games (which surprised me), but like any stat only tell part of the tale. I've been looking at them all season, and my overall impression is, as a rule they pass the eye test in the sense they reflect my sense of the pressure in the game. That was not necessarily the case in the blues and Lions games - or for that matter the Saints games - in the sense those games didn't feel low pressure as such. That said the pressure numbers in those games do point to the strategies of switching and denying us the ball (though its not then really possible, unless you have intently watch the games, to compare say the lions game with a run in the mill actual low pressure game).

And it was a super contested, tough game. Bit of recovery needed for the crows. One less day break and travel doesn't help their cause either.

And with their draw, largely irrelevant in any case.

I think something that is really underestimated in Nibbler's game is his running power. It sometimes seems the importance to our method and game plan of his elite aerobic capacity ability to cover distance at speed is not fully appreciated. Sort of like being a brilliant, elite level athlete is nice, but its not a core football skill he brings to the table Hence calls for him to be dropped and replaced by players simply do not have the athletic attributes to play his role to the level he does. Take Laurie, he is not going to suddenly become a elite level runner - no matter how aerobically fit be becomes. Wasn't as a junior, isn't now. By contrast, Nibbler's elite athleticism was a point of difference from the get go as highlighted in this article from 2018: The 22-year-old finished third in Melbourne’s post-Christmas 2km time trial behind Tom Bugg and Tom McDonald, with Demons elite performance manager Dave Misson giving an indication of his repeat running ability. "He's probably our best game runner," Misson told AFL.com.au. "He's a kid that's turned his career around in the last couple of years and it's as much his mindset and his willingness to work hard on the field as it is his physical capacity." Neal-Bullen has become a vital part of the Demons' side because of his two-way running, work ethic and ability to pressure the opposition. As a testament to his standing within the team, Neal-Bullen has been given a leadership position in the forward line, with Misson saying the unofficial title was indicative of his attitude. Misson said the Demons use a measure called "threshold running", defined as submaximal running or, in simpler terms, hard striding to work out whether a player is putting in on the field. Those figures are represented in Neal-Bullen's running figures from the weekend, with the half-forward averaging 10.1km/h in attack and 9.5km/h in defence (both game-highs). "Rather than looking at total kilometres, threshold running is the biggest indicator of what is, essentially, work rate," Misson said. "It doesn't surprise us that he's punching out big numbers there." "He's just become a really reliable teammate. He plays to all the structures, whatever role he's given he plays that role," Misson said. https://www.afl.com.au/news/92097/running-man-who-has-the-most-kms-in-a-game

Six marks, sixteen possessions and a goal as a forward is nothing to sneeze at. Different level obviously, but his replacement, jvr, had eight possessions, two marks and didn't bother the scorer.

That's a fair point. Perhaps as you suggest it's a directive - be more attacking. And if given a direction he'd follow it. I wonder if some of entries are similarly affected - ie following a team rule, for example who and where to direct a pass to a leading forward.

Nibbler has been involved with the majority of the first 2-3 goals we have kicked in our last three wins.

Nibbker had 5 clangers. And so did Salem and Melksham. JJ, may and jvr all had 4 clangers - and jvr only had 8 possessions! And tracc and Gus both had 3. Nibbler is hardly Robinson Crusoe in our team on the clanger front. Collectively they turned the ball over 72 times

Concidence more likely. But as you say he is always switched on. And maybe he starts deeper than later in the match? A couple of the goals have been from point blank range. And at least one was because he read rhe ball beautifully off the pack and snapped a goal. He's kicked one more goal than spargo this season, not bad considering spargo plays a bit closer to goal.

I've got no evidence at all to back up it up, but I get the same vibe.

No idea to be honest. But they appear to have taken a completely different approach. There's no way they wouldn't have some loading program in place. But they seemed to not drop off in their intensity till the blues game they just lost. Which is weeks later than when we started our loading phase. I'm guessing the fact they managed seven players in this game isapart of their strategy to manage load, fatgue, rest individual programs etc. Bur that is risky, because clubs are loath to make more that 2-3 changes (except for bevo) because sytems are so important. Seven changes is the reason the blues were favourite against a team going for its 14th straight win. They can afford a loss and that was obviously a risk they were happy to take.

Howes is an excellent kick, as Laurie. But both would need to do a power of work to get their tank to nibblers level as he is an elite runner. And im not sure Laurie covers the ground quickly enough. Howes looks a better athlete and could play the role. But he's a pretty classy player to give such a selfless, yeoman role to. But they could rejig the structure and system and spread nibbkers kms around and design a role for howes. Woey might be an option down the track. Last year the logical replacement for nibbler was Toby Bedford. Quick and an excellent tank We wanted to keep him by all accounts, but he left to get senior minutes, presumably because he was told he was behind nibbler. Spewing he left, I really liked him as a plsyrr Toby has been terrific for gws. He is playing a very similar role to nibbler's, though he plays a little closer to goal - though still really gets up and down the ground. Their stats are really comparable this year, but Nibbler has him covered,just, in most key stats. Toby has nibbker covered for pressure acts and tackles. And is better by hand. Their player ratings are almost the same too, but again nibbler shades him. One key difference is nibbler is 54% disposal efficiency by foot (for context hunter is 57%). And Toby goes at 39% by foot. By the by, spargo (who like toby plays a bit closer to goals than nibbler) goes at 68% by foot, which is pretty damn good. Nibbler has both spargo and Bedford covered for score involvements. And is miles ahead of spargo for average tackles and pressure acts.

Not sure what you mean. How is that related to my Bangkok gag?

Maybe they're just furious at the standard of umpiring in the AFL.

Of course he does. Every player does. That's why we coughed up so many turnovers last night. Steve may regularly complete shanks 20 metre kicks under little pressure. Barely a word is said. Lever is average one on one. Gus butchers it frequently on both feet. Tracc is not always one touch. Etc, etc Dimmy makes a great point about the estem his team mates hold him in. Jonsey made the same point in a recent game he was calling. It's about the package. The sum of the parts. Not a set of weaknesses.. And besides, if he is going to cop a wack for a skill error or poor decision then it's only fair he is applauded for some of his really smart ball use and sharp score involvements. And maybe even a pump up for kicking 12 goals and the first goal four times (the last 4 games?).

I'd like to hear Painters and Dockers do the Freo Dockers' song.

It is a complete nothing burger. Yze said pre game on abc he'll be back. Gawn said the same post match x 2 as did goody in his post match presser. The afl football media is an embarrassing, parochial, backwater joke.

Sorry, i meant to include 'asking for a friend'

Bloody hippies

Or goody it would appear. But you know better of course. And sure, let's ignore the opinion of an AFL listed player who has played 150 odd games at the elite level. Coz, you know randoms on a football forum with zero access to internal metrics and kpis have got a better handle on players performances. *nb tmac is on record has saying the high half forward role nibbler plays is, and this is a direct quote- 'by far the hardest role in football"

Remarkable he gets keep getting selected. I suspect there is not a single dees player who had played more games since the start of the 2021 season. He had missed just two games of 75 games, inclusive of 5 finals and a premiership medal. It is just flat out an insult to suggest goody would pick players because he Plays favourites. For petes sake goody is a among the true elite of coaches. 150 games at 58% win ratio. And a premiership medal. And his whole focus is winning more flags. And nibbler is a lock in his best 22 because he believes nibbler will help us win another flag. But sure posters on a football forum know more about nibblers ability, how critical he is to our team and what he brings to the team than goody.

I'm not being factitious, i promise, but playing fast, running in waves, daring football that doesn't break down too often because of skill errors requires a super high level of fitness. And we are not quite there yet. So its it simply not possible to do for a whole match. Yet. And its worth noting that it comes with a significant risk - a fast, risky game styke keeps the opposition in it as it invariably leads to goal on the counter. It is why the teams are always in against the Pies and why we din't get more scoreboard separation in the first quarter.