binman

I think it is more likley Melksham will play a defensive role on Andrews. I don't think JVR gets run this week. One or two more weeks in the magoos for the kid, with the goal of being cherry ripe come finals.

No. The Pies and Port will finish one two - a toss up who finishes top The dees and lions will finish either 3rd or 4th - a toss up who finishes 3rd Fingers crossed we play the Pies week one.

The avenues to goal will sort itself once we start moving the ball more quickly. Ironically we saw a glimpse of what it will look like against the Saints (ironic becuase we are not yet at our running best yet - though i goes ironic isn't really the right word - unless you are Alanis Morrissette). A big factor in our accuracy in the first quarter - and the Saint's inaccuracy - was the fact that Saints dominated time in forward half. Meaning they had multiple, reentries into a crowded, chaotic forward zone. We got our goals on the counter, meaning we were entering a forward line with one on ones, space, leading lanes and the opportunity goals from the goal square. it was mirror of the entire game against the GWS

I know you're taking the [censored]. Such a funny running gag - comedy gold. But if this were a serious question and not a wind up, my best guess is it is almost finished. Actually to be accurate, i think the extra work has finished but we have another week where that additional work (ie extra work on top of the standard in season training loads) will impact our ability to cover the ground. This aligns with Selwyn Griffiths comments about what the training program will look like over the course of the season in the DL interview way back in March. Our pressure fell away to 158 in the last quarter against the Saints, a good indicator of fatigue - having not broken 180 for the match (180 is AFL average and 200 is considered elite). Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 176 173 2 174 169 3 178 186 4 158 172 Match 172 175 No doubt how physically taxing the Alice game was, combined with the six day break, is a big factor, but my assumption is loading is also a factor (and by the by, also a big factor in the selection decisions over the last month or so). But we were looking to spread against the Saints more than we have since the Hawks win, which suggests to me we are getting close. We have another six day break into the Lions game (as do they fortunately), but I think we will be closer to optimal running power on Friday night. Unlike say the Pies or the Crows (who we play the following week), the Lions, with their chronic lack of leg speed (which i think is the key reason they struggle at the G) are not well placed to exploit any lack of run in our legs. But as noted, i think we are closer to our best shape and will look to spread and switch more than say against the Pies or Blues. And we will match them in the contest no problem. We then have nine days into the Crows game, with no travel this week or next week (unlike our two opponents). My prediction is we will be cherry ripe against the Burgess Crows (who are very well placed to exploit any lack of run) and will start playing our very best football, with the sort of overlap running, fast transition, switching lanes, using the corridor, more risk, high scoring footy we saw rounds 1-6. Giddy up.

1000%. Watch it live, with no external commentary at all, save that from other fans. Check stats an the end of each quarter. Win, radio on the way home. Get home and watch the full replay. Gold.

The infatuation with the pies adds a nice touch too

By the by, last night's game, and the data from our previous campaigns and the afl wide data, make a mockery of the rubbish the media has been spouting about our supposed connection, forward issues etc etc. I mean, for petes sake, the issue is accuracy (actually, i would contend accuracy us a symptom, not the issue per se). We had one less scoring shots last night, in perfect condition, than we did last week. We lost last week and everyone goes into hysterical abour some concocted scoring and connection drama. Our much maligned 'efficiency' was 36% last week - as defined by the afl as the percentage of shots on goal per inside 50 (the losing side in that match went at 26% efficiency). Last night our efficiency was 39%. We had less shots for goal this week, but win by four goals, and there us not a peep about connection and scoring issues - despite our efficiency barely improving. Did the saints have a connection issue last night (by the by their efficiency was almost rhe dame as ours - 40%)? Or an accuracy issue? Rhetorical question.

Indeed, that is exactly right. Which is why it is important when the media parrot some supposedly revelatory single data point to consider context and apply some critical thought - a point I made previously in tgis thread. For example, our accuracy falls off a cliff. The key questions might be how badly and why? To answer the first question, helpful data is afl wide accuracy in this same period to get a sense of how bug an issue it is. Instead the media just compare our, say rounds 13-19 accuracy with our own figures from rounds one 1-12. Which of course is useful data - but in isolation, only to a point, pardon the pun. The second question is also interesting. My take is the two key factors why there is a league wide drop off are likely to be weather and fatigue (both accumulative and loading realated). To test that hypothesis there are other data points that could be looked at to support, or contradict it - kms run at speed for instance.

Loss on expected scores - ironic. But also an accurate reflection of the game - the saints played well. I assume expected score is what lyon was referring to as score equity in his presser when he noted they won on score equity - and derided the media for not analysing with 'all your resources'

Thanks so much wheelo. Your key team stats has become a key part of my post match rituals - like buying the Sunday newspapers used to be back in the day - and a key element in gettimg my head around the game

Oh my God- a pattern! I don't know for a fact, but I'm pretty sure the exact same thing happened kadtbyear too in that same period (woeful accuracy rounds 13-19, not the flag bit). So, three years in a row in EXACTLY the same phase of the season our accuracy is under water. That is not a coincidence.

Spot on. They are a good team - as you say 5th to our 4th on the ladder well past the halfway mark of the season. They would have taken our spot in the 4 if they'd won - classic eight point game. Excellent sytem that the players are fully invested in. And well coached and hard to score against - particularly at marvel, their home deck. Marshall was awesome - he is a star. As is Sinclair. And they have some real quality young players.

Don't like being challenged? What on earth you talking about? As any regular reader of DL over the last decade or so can attest, i love being challenged. Love to be challenged and love to debate - assuming it has some sound logical foundations, isn't an exercise in gotcha questions, doesn't involve circular arguments and most of all doesn't involve willful misinterpretation. As i said, you have clearly completely misunderstood what i wrote and the point i was making. And as i also said i'm not going to restate that point As you so pithily say - go back and read again. Or not.

Pace yourself newie

Ta. Doesn't change the analysis that there is only slight increase in the percentage of shots from the pockets in the last 4 games over our season average, and that therefore our inaccuracy in the last few weeks can't be explained by us taking a lot more difficult shots. In fact, the the cats game we had the second highest percentage of shots from dead in front 20-35 meters of any game his season (only behind the 30.3% of shots from from the corridor 20-35 meters in our mauling of the Swans in round 3)

What the hell is this? Are you responding to the right post? Or have you really misinterpreted and/or misrepresented what i wrote so wildly? Note: i don't really care which of the above it is, but if the latter save your legs, as i'm not going to go to the effort to explain why you have got it so wrong.

Fascinating data wheello. Contradicts somewhat the idea that out inaccuracy is caused by our entries ie that we are having heaps of difficult shots becuase we have been kicking to the pockets more An interesting stat from the last 4 games is the percentage of shots from the pocket but from 35 meters plus. It is those shots that are the most likely to miss the shots. There has been a slight increase it seems from our season average of such shots in the last 4 games. I think in part that could be explained by tow interacted elements: we are not moving the ball at speed and so are not creating free players inside 50 our territory and inside 50 dominance means the ball is trapped in our front half a lot, which creates a super congested forward area 9and few free players to spot up) and shots from near the 50 metre arc from intercepts marks from dump clearing kicks from oppo defenders When we start moving the ball quicker i expect there will be less kicks from the pockets and 35 plus metres out. On the data for the last four rounds, it is important to consider how wet it was in the cats and giants games.

The same could be said of the Eagles - who have 30,000 odd people paying for the privilege of being on a waiting list to become a member. The money is great - all power to the pies. But at the end of the day teams are judged on winning flags and having all the resources to do so adds further pressure.

All top deck usually. Or at least top deck behind each goal.

Great. Fans gets the warm and fuzzies. Footy is about winning flags not selling badges. Mcrae had achieved nothing. Zilch. A bunch of home and away wins. Three finals. Two losses - including a preliminary final to a team who proceeded to get flogged by 15 goals in the gf. Meanwhile we have a coach who has actually achieved something - he has won a flag, breaking a 57 year drought. He has coached 150 afl games, with a 58% win loss ratio. Won 5 of 8 finals he has coached, including 50 50 in prelims. By way of contrast, clarkson, often hailed as the best coach of the modern era, had a win loss ratio at the hawks of 60%. Get back to me when mcrae can boast a record anywhere near as impressive as goodys. Mcrae is on a hiding to nothing this year. The pies are a fantastic team. But given the fact they have no record of success, other than some home and away wins, the expectations on them are just ridiculous. People just seem to be accepting they will win the flag and are streets ahead of their rivals. The last time I can recall such expectation is the tigers in 2018. The big difference is the tigers wete coming off aligning a flag, not getting bundled put of the final in a prelim. What happens if they don't win the flag? It will be viewed by most as a failure. Team and coach fail. Which is just ridiculous. What does that do to the optimism and postive energy everyone seems to love about the pies? How does the team rebound? Say it continues to dominate the 2024 home and away season. Two failed finals campaigns will hang over the club like a huge question mark shaped shadow.

A serious question jimmy - not trying a gotcha. Two in fact. Other than 'any team can be beaten on their day' how do you reconcile your assessment of the pies as the dominant team and 'streets ahead of us' with the fact we beat them three games back. I mean that was no lucky win. The scoreboard well and truly flattered them. We were clearly the better team on the day. Goody out coached mcrae, we took away their strengths and smashed them in the contest. The second question is, the lions also beat them, and in much the same manner - deny them space, take away the corridor and smash them in the contest. Yes that game was at the gabba, but like us, the lions also dominated them. Do you not think it is a concern that, added to the fact they lost two of three finals last year, the pies been soundly beaten by 2 of 3 of their key serious rivals tgia season and with the same strategy (and pretty easily too I might add)? On a related note, if we were talking about the dees with a similarly poor record against other genuine contenders and in big games, plenty of dl posters would be highlighting that record and warning we aren't that good (in fact IIRC, variations of that theme were frequently pssted in dl in 2021 and 2022).

Love it. Like a pendles netflix sci fi time loop series

Nah, sorry that's complete rubbish. How do I know that? Well, i don't need some 'expert' with an agenda to protect the reputation of his profession. I have all the experts I need right here on DL. I mean, how could Bruckner hold a candle to people who can confidently say we have botched oliver's treatment with zero access to his private medical information or zero knowledge about what his injury is, or what the complications might have been. Or limited or no medical training whatsoever for that matter. You don't need years of study and training to understand the medical team have stuffed up. It's just common sense. That's all that is needed If covid taught us anything it is that experts are dangerous.

Exec summary: We are near the end of the phase of coming into each match super fatigued. It is this fatigue that is at the heart of our current performance issues -just as was the case in 2021 and 2022 (there's a pattern) Our fast, aggressive ball movement, high scoring and accuracy will all return. We will win the flag this season. Everyone take a chill pill.