binman

LH, your research and thoroughness in your posts is impressive. One of the reasons why dl is a legitimate alternative for me to mainstream football media.

Yet another sign the dees are a club in crisis - a veritable basket case

On track bias this website is brilliant and highly recommenced: http://www.australianracingreport.com/index.html https://melbournetrackreport.com/track-bias-report.html

For me i guess that what i most most enjoy about punting is doing my form and selecting who i think will win. Like trying to sort out a puzzle. I lose that enjoyment if i follow a tipster's selections (and you're right about Gator, he is pretty good). I like to back myself in. But i do like to keep informed about any issues that impact on how my form analysis - eg track condition, history, how the track might play, race shape, weather etc. And the perspective of tipsters is great for this sort of stuff. I really like BZ and Hutchy for this stuff. On boas i try to be as objective as possible with form and put a lot of stock in weights, rating, record at track/distance/conditions, first and second up form etc. I put weight on the jockey, trainer and a bit on the barrier. And i have a preference for hoses that race on speed. I don't look at time much, to my detriment probably. But all in all i have pretty good strike rate. All of the above howver applies to the punting i do with my mate with our banck. Whan i'm having random punt myself at the pub tab that is all of the window (no time when you are machine gun betting!). I really like the Racenet app you put me onto Macca. Reads super well and their tips are really good. And i go for vibe betteing. Which is a recipe for losing of course.

I had a brilliant day yesterday. Lots of winners and got 41% of the first four in the plate. Could have been even bigger as i as i got a couple of close seconds and had marked broadwayandfourth but went more conservative and landed on Mint something. Made up somewhat for a nightmare weekend over the grand final where my mate and did not get a collect over the three days (save for a few money back for running second and third in Melb and Syd races 1-6 that sportsbet, and other, have - great deal i reckon as it is like an each way bet. Had three yesterday). Had marked the winner of 80% of the races too making but puled the wrong rein each time. On the first four i don't actually like following any tipsters. And i never listen or read any before i do my form. I like to trust my own judgement and find it colors my assessment. Once i have completed doing all my form and mark all horses i think can win in each race i will then sometimes read tips or listen/watch some tipping shows and might use that info in totality to land on on my selection. I was not going to put Calcevivechio in my my first four but was swayed by the views of a number of tipsters and their reminder he was carrying only 49.5. Very please i listened.

Backed loving gaby, purely on price ie overs. Loving gaby has been racing with the best of late and held her own. Bivuoac was the winner on form but the valley can be be a minefield for short price sprinters. So unders I thought. Start poorly over 1200 at the valley and it is very hard to recover. Got caught in traffic and Terry bailey said he had 'beef steaks all around him'. Unfortunate turn of phrase given the news of late. Liked the way loving gaby kicked right at the end. Also snagged greysfull glamour. Good ride.

Another indication of our fitness woes. Hard to raise second and third efforts if you are spent from your first one.

You may well be right. But the fact there is question mark on his ability to reign his instincts and follow instructions (which he arguably didn't do at the dees) make our decision to trade him understandable IMO. I doubt he would have been allowed dance to his own tune at the dees if we didn't have the injuries we did. He would have seen out his career with us at Casey.

It will tighten a little i reckon. Because it is the best horse by a mile. The track will be firm as there has been basically no rain today (so won't chop out tonight) and it will be windy tomorrow, drying out the track and making it hard for leaders (my understanding is Lys Gracieux is very versatile - has the speed to start quick from his wide barrier and get a good smother up 4th or 5th, or can sit at the back and has the brilliance to quicken from the back and make a sustained run over the last 400. Look at out WFA races this spring. This horse is better than out best by panels. I mean Black Heart Bart is carrying 2 more kilos - 4 lengths. Please. Currently at 3.70 which i reckon is well overs. Only the wide draw and the queries about travelling and being first up at the valley (and the massive pool) have stopped it getting into something like 2.50 or shorter. So great value. I plan to launch at it. And a have throw at the stumps in exotica with only internationals, who i think will fill the first four placings. I'm going to get in early and even without having done my form make it my best bet for the day. Moonee Valley: Race 9 number 9 Lys Gracieux @ 3.70

I think you'l find that was one of the issue we had with Frost. The dees didn't want him sprinting out of the back half ball in hand. Not his job. And yet he continued to do it.

Spell check is so annoying

Yrs, but can he cure mfcss?

Agree. Make aerial contests. Bring the ball to ground. Snag a fee marks. Kick a few goals. Apply forward defensive pressure. That is the role they trained him for last pre season and where be played in the practice game against the pies and the preseason game against the lions. And I would be surprised if that is not the same next season

Who now doesn't have a spot in the team! Coz we dont need his elite kicking.

My position on OMac is obviously well known. I think he will play regular senior footy next year. Bu i also acknowledge my confirmation bias. But leaving that discussion alone i think it is worth seeing Omac's 2019 season (which was horrible, no question) in the context of his pre season hip surgery . In many ways he is a microcosm of the whole team and the season for many players. Hip surgery and the resulting rehab can't help with core strength or burst speed - two areas he is struggled with as many people noted on DL, much more so than in 2018 - an issue for a lock down defender of opposition key forwards. Then you add the impact on his ability to put good fitness and strength base down, add in the fact he is clearly a confidence player and struggled with that aspect and was in a back line missing most of it best players and you get a recipe for a poor season. You could replace OMac's name (and type of surgery) with any number of players and you get the same result - poo seasons. On top of the list is Gus.

I'm a big jack watts fan but I think that is a completely reasonable comparison. I wonder if along with both being highly skilled players who haven't fully delivered what was expected they also both have suffered from poor development at resource poor, lowly clubs.

We're using them on Martin

Whole lot of charlie

I'm still waiting for my sides to stop aching form all my laughter at this brilliant humour. Based on your assessment he is extremely unlikely to play senior AFL football next year. The joke will be on you i'm afraid.

Steady on. Agree that he doesn't seem to get the achnowledment he deserves and I thought he had a great year last season. And I expect he will get better and is a chance to become a star. But firmly establishing himself as a great of the game? Chris Judd had won a brownlow, a Norm Smith (in a losing team) and captained his side to a gf win at the corresponding stage of his career. That is establishing yourself as a great.

Jeez, a fair bit of angst for a simple article that makes a correct point that Tomlinson and Langdon will mean players who are not natural wingers wont have to play there, instead playing where they are more suited. Which will improve us. I thought the comment about Tomlinson do some ruck work and allowing gawn to push forward more often was interesting actually.

If he played hb Salem could play as a mid

A touch of the oxymorons here but i like the cut of his jib. If indeed he is the best player at 3 then it is serendipitous as above all we need an elite kick and Young appears to be one and it removes all discussion about best pick of over filling needs. Love that he is a lefty too as i'm positive they have a slight advantage with opposition instinctively looking to cover the right side. Did your mate indicate if he could move play as a mid? And any discussion about his ability to play AFL next season?

And also has to be factor in any deliberations about drafting Martin. Let's say we pay Martin 650k and he is just an average year. And harmes another top 5 in the bluey. And asks for 650 k.

I'm on record as saying Martin is player i would like to see at the club. But whilst we can no doubt afford him i don't think it is entirely true that money is not an issue. If say we agree to pay him 700k a season it will immediately put him in say the top 5 players for salary. And that may create some issues if his teammates believe he is not worth that sort of coin, or they think they are worth more. Which might be an issue for morale but more pertinently might become an issue at the end of next season when a number of key players will be renegotiating contracts. The players will have advanced notice of the plans to get Lever and may and so the logic for their high salaries would have been more evident. Both are likely future AA players (may might have been already?). It is a bit harder to argue the case for martin. All that said i would be thrilled if we get him.