Slartibartfast

Good stuff Old, that's a very good start I would have thought although I would argue you'd have to take into account the "role" that someone plays. Mids v KPP v Rucks v Flankers v Taggers. There must be a "rarity" factor in there and there must be some sort of "value" factor. All I'm really trying to point out is that I think the well worn phrase "best available" is a crock of rot because you can't compare the different roles. Whether it is formal or otherwise there is a matrix that leads the Barry Prendergast's of this world to call out a players name. Anyone heard of "Moneyball"?

So, Barry Prendergast is sitting at the National Draft with pick 11 and looks at his options. There is a midfielder there he is 95% confident will play 100+ games of AFL football and who has good skills. Then there is a KPF who he is 50% confident will play 100+ games of AFL football but who has known faults. At pick 18 he thinks there will be a midfielder who is 60% sure of playing 100+ games and a KPF who he thinks is 40% sure of playing 100+ games, but of course he can't be certain. Nobody argues we don't need a KPF but in this circumstance who do you pick?

Beautifully put. End of argument I would have thought. By the way, when comparing a key position forward and a midfielder how do you determine "best available"? What do you take into account in your judgement?

I guess they have the provisional draw. DB gave a speech but it didn't contain any new news. CC spoke briefly but again nothing much of note.

Yes it was. On a pro rata basis he beats Davey. Beamer did make the comment but without the swear word. It was very well received. Of the 2009 list Brock, Buckley and Trent Zomer didn't attend. Shane Valenti was there. Each of Wheater's, Robbo and Matty Whelan made a speech. Wheels was first up and was short and sharp. Paul Wheatley gave the most impressive speech of the night and whilst the delivery was not Obama like the content was absolutely outstanding. He is clearly a club man, highly respected and admired. His speech included the comment "I would have loved to go on and play next year but I realise that given where the club is it would be wrong of me to take the place of a young player." He is an outstanding young man. Robbo's speech followed and was typical Robbo. He clearly feels aggrieved about being delisted. He could have learned something from Wheaters. The other speech of note on the night was Colin Sylvia. Genuine thanks to the club for supporting him, clearly implied he had underperformed and seems ready to realize his talents. In excess of $60,000 raised for the club as well with 9 people paying $6,000 to join the team when it visits Adelaide next year and be included in "everything". About another 25 who pledged $500 each to support a rookie, it could have been more, I'm not sure of the number. A good night, very positive and some genuine excitement about next year.

Fellas back to the topic please. Thanks.

Well technically he is contracted but his contract finishes on 31st October when he will become uncontracted if he hasn't signed with another club.

OK, I missed Demonland's post. Sorry guys. My initial intention was to make this for confirmed trades but I've been overruled by the boss!! Post away.

Guys I'm just going to delete "discussion". Thanks

How about we leave this thread to confirmed trades and discussion can be in separate threads?

I thought we won?

Thanks Hannabal.

Have you seen him play live?

I can't comment, I haven't seen him play live.

Thanks for the advice Pit but I'll not judge a player on one incident in one game, that is for mugs. I'll look at the whole year and what he's achieved. I'll not restate his achievements but he can clearly play. BTW, what do you think of Rivers? Just take a look at the fumble in the square against Richmond in the last quarter. That did cost us the game.

---- Ok. Of COURSE we can learn from our competition. But no more than any other club. I think you learn from the successful clubs and not the unsuccessful clubs. That said, there are things to learn everywhere, not only what went right but what went wrong? For example, look at drafting 2004 Richmond v Hawks. Apply that to Melbourne drafting 2009 - it's not that easy. Also what have Sydney and Saints got in common that allows them to get their players on the park? How have Collingwood got a lot of recalcitrants playing eg Dick. ---- So why are you looking here? No-one on here, not even Hannibal, can help you with that. Because there are some great posters here who present ideas I've not thought of - that's how I learn. Hannibal ( thought it was Hannabal) has taught me a lot; Axis of Bob talks about things in ways that enlighten, WJ has a different slant on things, Grazman is quality. But we all support the same team and are subject to a level of groupthink (although Hannibal will deny he is!!) so even some lesser posters from opposition teams can be interesting. I thought OX might be one. I was wrong so I move on. Oh, and DD - I agree, your response was too long!!

He's played 21 games in a team that has lost 2 for the season (when it didn't matter) and has kept out players like Hudghton and McGuire after being picked up in the rookie draft. He's played in a defense that has one of the best records ever. Yeh, he's a liability. Great call Redleg, from a quick re-read you were the only one to see the possibility and defend it. Ironic isn't it that Hawthorn are now crying out for a defender.

DD thanks for your response, I'd forgotton what it was like to discuss things with you. I'm different to many here; I'm not interested in winning arguments and chest beating but rather finding the right answer. OX failed to discuss things when I tried and I'll just not bother discussing things with him again; shame really, we have lots to learn from the views of others. Ash34 (as he now is) sadly doesn't post because of the shyte he got but he was more insightful about Melbourne than about 95% of posters here. For those that don't know he supports Essendon. I thought OX might have been the same, but no, he's here to chest beat and he'll find many a person willing to provide him with many hours of fun, and that's fine if it's within the house rules. But back to your response. I'll not answer all your points but I will two. You asked how you measure "going to the trough". Well, count the number of PP over the last 8 years would be a start. And what can we learn from Collingwood? Well given that they have outperformed us so dramatically over the last 10 years or so I would have thought "plenty". How do they develop their players so quickly? What parameters do they use when recruiting? What medical practices do they use to keep players on the field? What leadership practices have they based their club on? How have they structured their football department? What personal mentoring have they put in place for players? What are the conditioning programs they have for their players? What do their players do outside football? and on and on... Now please don't list the "misdemeanors" of their players, that would be insulting to all. And I know they have monetary and draw advantages. But if you're so blinkered that you think we can't learn something from the more successful clubs then I'd be surprised. Adelaide is the other club I'd be looking at. GF aside Collingwood have been hugely successful over the last decade without the assistance of draft concessions (beyond Thomas who I don't rate). If you want to play tribal "mines bigger than yours" fine, I'm just not interested. I actually want the answers.

You seem to have missed the point. Thanks

If Watts is a mistake against Hurley what do you make of Reid/Brown v Frawley, Thomas against Ellis and Higgins and Roughead v Frankin. Brown was clearly ahead of Frawley in year one but not many would argue he's ahead of him now. Thomas was ahead of Ellis and Higgins but isn't now, he's a distant 3rd. At the end of year one Roughhead was ahead of Franklin and Kossi ahead of Reiwoldt. Jonathon Brown in his first 3 games did significantly less than Watts but had a body far more prepared for AFL footy and played in a much better team. I really rate Hurley but I'm not upset with Watts. I know enough people in the game who rate him very highly.

Who says he's being "forced to go"?

Watts is a tall, he's also very young. Comparing a young tall to a couple of nuggety mids it silly IMO. Deledio did more than Franklin in 2005. Blease had a broken leg in 2009 and Strauss shoulder and ankle problems. You're probably just responding to type but your arguments don't really carry water IMO.

Nor have most of the posts in response. FHS DD, do you find one Collingwood supporter argueing a case for his club to be so threatening? In case you haven't noticed Collngwood have had one year where they have "gone to the trough"(2005). Since we were in our last GF they have been in two GF's and two Preliminary finals (with one still live) and a semi final. They've done it on the back of terrible recruiting in the early 2000's and they are getting fantastic results from some excellent mature players and a group of promising young kids. If you think we've nothing to learn from them then your very blinkered. OX is not here to support our view and I think it's healthy to have someone from outside challenge us. If you don't like it don't read it and just go along with the group think that is the very essence of club footy forums.

I wonder if they have seen him play live! <_<

There is much in what you say but the point I think you're missing is the success of teams depends on their experienced elite and Melbourne don't have any at the moment. Davis, Didak, Pendlebury and Swan make up a fantastic midfield and are all dangerous with three of the four able to kick goals as well. Maxwell is very very good and I a huge fan of O'Brien and Shaw. Your recruiting last year was exceptional and Sidebottom and Beams will be very good for you but seem to lack the explosive abilities of your elite. Our top end players are plain vanilla. Our hope rests with our youth where we have a number of players who may become very good. Only time will tell. Jurrah, Watts, Blease, Scully, Garland and Morton all show significant potential. If none of these players become elite our rebuild will fail to produce a flag, it's just as simple as that. Until Bailey and Connolly came we had terrible player development. Daniher had a mature squad and development was seen as a low priority. Bailey and Connolly have a completely different approach which I hope can emulate the Collingwood success because without doubt your team is one that gets the maximium out of itself. I was at the game Saturday and it was a fantastic effort by Collingwood against a very good team. Interestingly Collingwood and Adelaide are IMO the two benchmarks of the competition for the way they are drilled and prepared. My concern for Collingwood is where you get your elite players. Historically elite players come from early picks and as of this draft we will have 14 top 20 players on our list. Who do you see as your potential elite? Reid has been disappointing, Brown looks solid rather than elite, Pendlebury will be elite for a long time but Thomas a little disappointing. Your exceptional overall performance has denied you access to elite talent and it will again this year. With compromised drafts for the next three years no club is going to be able to stockpile low picks (other than GC and GWS obviously) which will make it really hard for you. It's going to be interesting to see how it unfolds.