DeeSpencer

Hey we can ask for the world and I hope we do but I'd also be willing to settle eventually. Maybe 1 quality piece is more important than finding multiple options but I'm yet to see what the very high quality piece in the deal would be unless they give us a top 5 pick and enough to get May. I think where we disagree is on Hogan's potential to be a generational player. I haven't felt that way about his since his first year. Whether that's injuries, confidence or personal issues or not I'm not seeing it.

10, 15, 68 for 37 and 43. Makes Lever's value at pick 7, although that calculator always overrated high picks and we took a risk that we'd finish strongly and the Crows wouldn't. Hogan's foot v Lever's knees. Hogan's struggles against top teams v Lever's struggles one on one. If Freo give us pick 5 outright and Port are willing to split it to picks 9 and 10 then we're off to a good start. Otherwise if Freo give us pick 10 and Langdon but we can upgrade pick 32 to pick 18 with the Suns then that's worth consideration. May, 18 and Langdon is turning 1 big piece in to 3 useful pieces.

How many quick classy outside runners in the comp are there? A couple at GWS, McCluggage at Brisbane, Stephen Hill on his day (who we should look in to), Gaff who's about to go to North for a fortune. It isn't a long list. Even with average skills a quick outside runner would be an upgrade on what we currently have. I don't think Hogan with a foot injury and only a year to run on his deal is fetching us 2 high quality assets unless you count mid to late first round picks. If May is 1 high quality asset then another useful player like Langdon and then something extra on the side ends up a pretty reasonable package to me. Edit: Just thinking about it I reckon we can probably get May for cheaper than I originally thought. I'd probably want the 3rd part of a May and Langdon deal to be a bit stronger than a pick upgrade. Maybe if we chucked in our own 2nd round pick and got back to the first round.

Nic Nat is on big money as their main ruck. Lycett is about to leave for cash and opportunity. Vardy was a cheap bargain buy back up. Kennedy should be on big money, Darling on just solid very good player money, he had a career best start to the year but otherwise has always been more of a B+ type to me. Eagles big money guys are likely Nic Nat, Kennedy, McGovern, Shuey and if he isn't already then soon to be Yeo. Then they have a number of solid guys like Hurn, Redden, Shepherd who should all be above average without breaking the bank. We could keep Tommy Mc, Weeds and Hogan. I think if happy Hogan would make big but not out of control money, same with Tommy Mc's rumoured 800. Weid's out of contract next year. The greater issue is whether they'd all play together well, what that means for team performance and if it justifies spending all the money on one position group. From a purely financial point of view I think spending Hogan's money on a key defender and an outside midfielder would balance the list and create a better side.

Think we should at least inquire about a pair of Jacks. Lonie - a far from perfect footballer but would be an option in the crumbing small forward role. Small, not blistering pace and a little soft but he has smarts. Would be about a straight swap for Kent Newnes - long kicking wingman who Saints fans really dislike after this year. Would probably need a pick thrown in with Kent

That's the conversation they have to be having now. If Lewis has no interest in playing for Casey they should pay him a fraction of his contract to retire. If he's willing to admit where he is at as a declining veteran then he has value to the list and team.

To be fair I should've put pace last in my list of concerns because it's not a big one but I'm not convinced by that number that he's anything more than average. I'd like to see a stat on career running bounces, properly quick players run and bounce the ball, I can't ever remember Hogan doing that. Altogether my point is he's not taller, faster, a bigger leap, a better kick or a better pressure player than the very best key forwards. He's a very good player with a lot of improvement still left in him but I'm just not convinced that the way he burst on to the scene as a 20 year old means he'll be off the charts good for the rest of his career.

Oh yay, 4 road faves, let me tip against 2 of them and lose this week. But for now: I love Josh Allen. That's my QB of the new guys. He's so damn big and dopey yet somehow gracefully athletic and fires the ball off. I'm all in. (I also love Mahomes and Baker, and Darnold is ok too but Josh is my guy).

1. His tank is great, on a long lead that's fine but I don't see him get space on a short lead or sprint away from opponents when the ball hits the ground. Often he'll gather the ball and try to turn back away from goal rather than take them on. I don't know exactly how Hoges would go in a 20m or 40m sprint but I think most gun key forwards would have him covered. 2. This one is the most glaring. I'm surprised you don't see it. He never connects with the midfielders when deep forward. I know our mids burn the ball but good forwards make it easy for them. Hogan is often just pleading for a long bombed kick. 3. Willing to agree to disagree but the way he kicks the ball so across his body means he only has a stab kick, no variation, he'll never be able to weight the ball over a defender 4. One on one body work he's great. But in terms of actually leaping at a pack mark I haven't seen it since year 1 or 2. I'm not sure if it's a lack of confidence in his knees or back or a lack of explosiveness but he's a wrestler not a leaper. McDonald and Weideman are both far better at really jumping for the ball. 5. Josh Kennedy defends, J Riewoldt defends, when he's fit and healthy Buddy defends. It's not the be all and end all but it's a knock. Tommy McDonald's ankles don't work so he doesn't do a great job of it and Melksham likes to stand and watch. It's easy to get to a critical mass of forwards who don't launch in and lay tackles if Hogan is in that group as well. Ben Brown is a more limited footballer than Hogan but he's exceptional and at leading, marking and being a big bugger. Jack Riewoldt is the best and most well rounded forward in the game, if the stats don't show that then chuck them out. Fair point about Tom Mitchell but he is the games best ball winner, that's his remarkable skill to go with doing enough in other areas. I don't know if Hogan's best traits are truly exceptional.

Premierships are won by the best defensive side. That's the saying. May would give us a rock at FB. Big body, quick enough to take a small if needed, strong marker, good left foot roost. Lever roaming around intercepting at CHB and can groom Harry Petty in a similar mold. Jetta back pocket. Hibberd flexible rebound and intercept player. Salem on a flank. Locked in. 3 way battle for the other tall spot based on needs out of Oscar, Frost and Joel Smith. Plenty of competition to see who plays on the other flank. He's exactly what we need. Much easier to add wings and small forwards in the draft and that could pretty much be our focus if we land May.

I think you're overrating Hogan. And I think the club agrees with me because if he was really a super dooper superstar we wouldn't even entertain the idea of a trade. My issues with Hogan are: 1. Pace - he's not super quick and so struggles to burn an opponent either on the lead or when the ball is on the ground 2. Leading patterns - repeatedly he gets out of position as a deep forward. Far better leading up the ground, but the way footy is played right now doesn't favour the lead up CHF. Similarly Tom McDonald is excellent in that role 3. Kicking skills - whilst his goal kicking has improved and is very good inside 45m the way he hooks the ball around his body means he struggles for distance and struggles to weight the ball inside 50. If he gets the ball 60m out it often ends with a turnover or dumped kick. 4. Lack of a leap - how often does he take the big pack grabs out reaching opponents - very rarely 5. Defensive effort - it's just not there. He tried much harder this year but it clearly doesn't come naturally to him. Poor tackler and again the lack of speed comes in here I think Hogan is an excellent player - runs all day, clean hands on both sides of his body, mobile like a midfielder around the packs, kicks his goals at a good rate, but I don't think he's the special kind of player that will get the whole farm in a trade. I don't want draft picks for him, I think most are in agreement there, but if the trade is Hogan for May and another best 22 player with upside then I'd do that. May and Ed Langdon is my suggestion.

Max can play forward. I'd be playing Preuss about 10 games a year against the taller sides and non finalists and having him ruck 50% of the game whilst Gawn plays forward. Then come the business end you go smaller and ruck Max 80% game time.

If we can turn Hogan in to: - May - Preuss - Ed Langdon Then we've filled 3 needs (full back, back up ruck, wing) with 1 player leaving. I'd do that for sure. It would be brutal but it's a brutal competition

Salem only had 1 good game in the midfield - against the Roos, and he played on ball not wing. He's not an elite runner, the wing isn't the spot for him. He was much more consistent when moved to half back against Essendon and I think he'll feature really high in our B+F with a number of games where he did his job perfectly at half back. Fritsch is the most natural winger on the list IMO. It's just a matter of building his tank and teaching him some stoppage craft. Considering he wasn't in the TAC system or even playing regular at Casey (senior or development) he's come a long way this year and just got tired when asked to play backline late. If he can get his tank to AFL midfield standard whilst building some core strength this summer he could not only back up but go to another level next year.

New England, Green Bay, Dallas

No but he'd help us get it back. The Eagles were pumping it inside 50 at times because not only do our key defenders get beaten, they just don't take marks, nor do they regularly sink the fist through the ball and clear the contest. So even if you win it back you're under pressure and not in control of the ball. Oscar wasn't entirely terrible today but missed a bunch of marks and had plenty of chances to really thump the ball through. Frost had a bad Frost game. Lever will help the marking and rebound but is best used as a third option, especially coming off a knee. Maybe Frost and Oscar can improve again, and they showed against the Cats and Hawks they can do the job with midfield support, but it's hard to win a flag without 1 gun key defender.

The midfield were belted today and that's both our strength and probably the area where we can find the most natural improvement. Harmes showed what a big summer can do. Time for Brayshaw, Oliver, Petracca to do the same. And Viney and Vanders getting healthy. Those 6 guys I named can probably get 140 touches a game pretty easily. They had 141 combined today. If they improve their 2 way running and clean up their skills it will make the life a lot easier for the rest of the side. For Clarry it's finding room to kick the ball more. For Brayshaw it's finding the kicking efficiency he badly needs to improve. Petracca it's two way effort and being cleaner under pressure, plus his goal kicking.

I think we need reinforcements on all 3 lines. A gun key defender would be nice but probably won't happen. So at least adding more flanker depth would be handy. Forward line needs to work out the plan for Hogan and then find some crumbing and pressure players. Go get a Rioli!!! Midfield just add some depth ball winners and then find the solutions on the wing. The wing desperately needs changes.

I'll update this as the list changes come in. And after trade week. But I thought I'd get some things down on paper and see where we are at and what we need to bring in. FB: Hibberd Oscar Jetta HB: Lever Frost Salem C; Fritsch Brayshaw ##### HF: Spargo ?Hogan Petracca FF: ##### T Mc Melksham Foll: Gawn Oliver Viney Int: ?HBF, ?Forward/Wing, Harmes, Vanders I've left Frost and Oscar in because I don't think we are getting May and we have to back them in. Depth: ANB, Hannan, Stretch, Baker, Maynard, Wagner, Jones, Lewis, Hunt, J Smith, ?Garlett, ?Tyson Key defenders: Frost, Oscar, Petty, ??Keilty 3rd tall: Lever, J Smith Back pockets: Jetta Flankers: Hibberd, Salem,Hunt, ?? Lewis, Wagner Inside mids: Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, Harmes, Maynard Outside mids: Fritsch, ??Tyson, ??Jones, Stretch, Baker Ruck: Gawn, ??Preuss Mid/forward: Petracca, Vanders Key forwards: T Mc, ??Hogan, Weideman 3rd tall: Melksham Flankers: Spargo, ANB, Hannan Crumbers: ???Garlett

I watched the last few minutes of the 2nd quarter and the 2nd half. Seemed to rotate between the midfield - where he was involved in play - and full forward - where the ball largely avoided him but he'd go in chasing runs. Had a nice clearance in the 2nd quarter. In the 2nd half he had a lovely crumb about 40m out but missed the goal. Went on some big blistering chases to get from a long way to the contest. Nailed a big tackle which gave away a free but was worth it. Was involved with a few link up handballs. Skirted the packs a bit and I thought there were chances for him to jump in a get the ball. I'd say he looks like a draft prospect because he can get the ball in a pack and he loves to chase and tackle, but I'd also be concerned he's pretty limited in his involvement otherwise.

Jones deserves a year to see how he can play in a new role and a lightened work load - he carried the midfield in the first 6 weeks of the year. Lewis is playing the only position on the ground we can almost attempt to hide him and he's missing simple handballs under perceived pressure afraid of contact and giving away undisciplined free kicks. We gave him an extra year he wasn't going to get at the Hawks. Worked well for both parties. There's no need for 1 more.

Played some decent games towards the end of the year but cracks started to open in the final term against the Hawks and they busted wide open against the Eagles. Coaching or media role surely beckons.

AFL Draft 2018: Pick 1 and top 10 prospects, Jack Lukosius, Tarryn Thomas, Toby Bedford Settle down Toby. Late round pick should do it. Loving those tackle and clearance numbers.

At their best is Rodgers because he can scramble, he can avoid rushers and throw bombs, he can do anything. That said, if I had to start from scratch with both players aged 30 and I had a good defense and special teams and enough money to buy some quality offensive players but not break bank I'd go with Brady. Here's why: Obviously any QB is reliant on their scheme and coaching, but I think it's easier to create the system Brady plays in and it's safer for the QB. This is nitpicking and most will disagree with me but I think Rodgers isn't as easy to coach as people think. I'm not saying he has a good coach, I don't think he does, but he shredded the Bears just staying in the pocket and putting his receivers to work when he had to. He should do that more often but I think he likes to scramble around and make the big plays. The knee injury could be a blessing in disguise for Rodgers because he should play more like Brady. Develop insane chemistry with a small group of receivers and receiving backs and just take what's there mechanically marching down the field. The obvious thing to say there is McCarthy isn't Josh McDaniel's so it's not that easy but I think Rodgers has played at too high a level for too long for any half decent coach to not create a system based on his timing and accuracy if he wanted it.

Carolina (falcons are missing their best 2 players on D) Houston (Tenn qb situation is less than ideal) Chargers