DeeSpencer

The Crows interest probably got Chandler a 2nd year but I’m not convinced it turned him from a 200k player to a 400k player. If they wanted him that much he would’ve left. Bobby Hill is a big talent, I don’t think the Giants give him up for anything less than pick 30. Ideally more like pick 20. They traded up to get him. And he’s contracted with 3+ clubs wanting him so he’s not signing for peanuts either. Could we combine our 2nd (37) and 3rd or 4th picks to get Bobby and convince him to sign a deal less than what he would at other clubs - maybe, probably not. Would I put pick 17 on the table or split it down the order for him - no.

I think it's fair to question the Cats age demographic and game plan but the most impressive thing they do to me is that they keep producing a top team out of a lot of players who get results without actually being that talented. Therefore they should be able to keep producing results as they get younger without having the best young talent either. Obviously we have some super talented young players and nailed some draft picks with high end potential guys like Jackson and Pickett, but we also saw this year what Goody and a bunch of fresh assistants did with guys like JJ, Spargo, ANB, Sparrow and not overly high picks like Rivers and Bowey. It's been nearly a decade since the 2011 flag side started retiring and they've kept winning for a decade. If they can replace all those absolute superstars then they can replace Tuohy and Henderson as well. They might just keep rolling with Tom Stewart and Jezza Cameron for the next 5 years too. Although they desperately need the next Dangerfield. They'll be searching through AFL lists looking for anyone who's ever set foot in Geelong to try to get them home.

Unless your club has serious retention issues I don’t think you can worry about a player leaving due to the role they play requiring more development time. I also think you’re underrating how long a lot of small and medium players take. Yes they’re faster than talls, but for every Serong or Pickett there’s a Dyl Stephens or Sam Flanders. They might even play a lot of games early but not actually be contributing to winning. There’s mids who play early for the sake of it more than because they’re strong contributors. English is a handy ruck/forward, decent value for the pick, but just isn’t tough enough to be a full time ruck. The dogs issue is shockingly not investing in a proper number 1. If Stef Martin wasn’t 45 he’d have been right back in the centre square at any sign of English faltering. Sean Darcy and Sam Draper are far more promising number 1 rucks.

Spot on. And even before we did it this year the way the Saints are twice the team with Ryder and Marshall than without would’ve opened a lot of eyes. They get a full game of ruck quality but also get most of a game of a 200cm athletic long kick contest player who draws defenders away from Max King. Coaches have been saying for years ‘we just need a contest and the ball bought to ground’ when talking about key forwards. Instead of drafting someone like Schache or Weid and hoping they’re tall, athletic and tough enough to give you those contests I think recruiters have switched priorities. Instead of a ruck in your forward line being a liability it’s now a priority to deal with intercept defenders

Fraser was a spent force by the time he was 27/28. Matt Kreuzer the same. All those years taking punishment before they were physically ready came at a big cost at the back end of their careers. Despite being two of the most mobile rucks when they stated they couldn’t move in nearly the same way by the end. They traded 50 games in their prime for 50 games as babies. I’ve compared Jacko to Goodes before and clearly some form of Goodes like career without the need to give up a ruck role would be the dream. The point I was making is that rucks not only rarely hold down the number 1 job before 22-24 but even if they can they probably shouldn’t. Any smart team drafting Mac in the top 15 believes they can get value out of him in the first 4-5 years without him being the first choice ruck.

The amazing thing about that game is that 2011 was a good year compared with 07-09 and 12-14. If you lined up all the win loss records and asked which year did we get belted by 31 goals you wouldn’t pick 2011. 2010 had genuine optimism. 2011 quickly snuffed that out as it was clear we were rebuilding on the shakiest foundations you’ll ever see. 2011 really was the end result of probably a decade of under-resourcing the footy department, both financially but also culturally with no support from plenty of different boards and CEO’s. Neale Daniher held the place together, Dean Bailey admirably tried to do the same. Hard to know what we can do as members except hope we never get caught in the same situation.

I would not recruit a ruckman with a top 10 pick, I agree waiting 5+ years for them to hold down the job is a huge expense. But Luke Jackson isn't really a ruckman (or isn't only a ruckman), and I'd still have some worries about Jacko holding up a full time ruck job until he's 22+, fortunately we haven't asked him to do that. Josh Fraser didn't last doing it. Grundy's not tracking on the same level after a lot of getting belted early in his career too. Even though he'll almost certainly end up a ruckman and came in to AFL footy most confident as a ruckman there's a reason Simon Goodwin played Jackson for a rotation or two as a centre square midfielder (as well as a ruck) in his first AFL preseason game. And a reason Jackson gets asked to play as a key forward a lot too (apart from because that's where the ruck spells). He's a super athletic competitive footballer who can provide huge value in so many ways. His hit outs rarely matter, but his follow up is amazing, his ability to clunk marks or force contests across half forward is huge. With an obstructed run at the ball Jackson isn't getting beat by key defenders and is starting to beat them back. His ability to chase, tackle and pressure is vital to us playing 4 tall rucks/forwards and Fritsch. If Mac goes top 20 and especially top 10 it's because he's not a ruckman but a super athletic footballer who can ruck and do other things. GWS have Matt Flynn (solid and improving), Preuss (solid if healthy), Briggs (promising) and might get Lobb (hates rucking but can do it) back. They aren't chasing a primary ruckman any time soon. What they're looking for is a guy in the mold of Jackson, but also in the mold of Nik Cox and Zach Reid at Essendon, Aliir Aliir, Harris Andrews, even the King twins. Sure there's a risk that means they become Rhys Stanley or Rory Lobb, but 200cm + can seriously move + wins the ball + can use it. Doesn't matter what position you play in juniors if you can do those things you're a rare talent, which means an early pick and let the coaches work out the rest.

Aliir Aliir was born in Kenya, raised in Brisbane, then moved to Perth after not getting drafted as his family had previously moved there. Then he was drafted by the Sydney Swans, before getting traded - not to his childhood home in Brisbane or later family home in Perth but to Adelaide. I don't think it's fair to make generalizations about someone unless you really know what motivates them and what they value or need for support. Everyone needs friends and some form of community no matter where they live. For a lot of AFL players those friends and community are the players drafted with them and other team mates. GWS have 2 players of African heritage. 1 is Irish. 1 was born in London but grew up in Geelong. Yes that's different to being Sudanese but for all their faults the Giants seem to run a pretty good club. Players leave there for a lot of reasons but they've also had a strong core stay together for a fair while now.

Looked very similar to Petty's first year from what I saw, maybe minus a couple of cm's and with a bit more ability to find the ball. I think he'll be trained up as cover for Lever and Petty (and therefore also Tommo) across half back much more than a lockdown defender. He's an interceptor who moves well for a tall rather than a shut down player. But he's never had an AFL preseason so who knows how quickly he can come on and what a big summer can do.

Those clubs have already moved back to 23 and 27, I doubt they want to move much further because they need list spots to carry picks. Can’t have all their picks in the 35+. From 37 it’s probably hard to jump too high. 49 will crash in a lot after all the dogs and pies picks get consumed by bids. As will 57. Making both picks worth at least a little currency. All those picks might have to move around on draft night with a Woewodin bid too. Im not sure we’ll be able to create another pick inside 30. Teams like West Coast, Geel and Rich will want to use the picks they have in that range just ahead of us. But I can see why we’d be keen to nudge both 17 and 37 up a few notches.

Way way too harsh. By all reports Carlton are not offering him crazy money, if he wanted money he would’ve stayed at Freo. By far and away the biggest factor in Cerra not picking us would’ve been the ability to do the trade, and I respect a player who says don’t screw my old club or tear apart my new club to get me. If Peter Bell got on his high horse there’s a chance Cerra could’ve been dumped in the pre season draft. Or almost bullied in to going to Carlton. Trading away premiership players would’ve hurt us too. It would’ve taken a whole lot of drama to get anywhere near a deal that Freo would’ve accepted. Did Steve May really pick us in 2018 when half the Victorian clubs wanted him? I’m not 100% sure we were his first preference. We were the team that could do the deal whilst everyone else said wait until free agency. After a rocky start he’s been fantastic and a great clubman.

I agree. Rivers was a 2nd rounder and I think he’s too talented for that role. I’m fine for him sharing it with Hunt, one more chance for J Smith, Deakyn developing and looking at some other cheap options.

Lockart’s strong odds to be the better footballer and I wish he made it, but he was a very good VFL player with little upside. Fitness was an issue and every other part of his game was ok or good but not great. I’m not at all sold on Baker but the speed is definitely there, not lightening but definitely quick. He must have improved his tank or they would’ve given up. I don’t think his game sense will ever be up to it but clearly they think there’s a chance. I wouldn’t have kept him but I understand why he’s had 1 more 1 last chance

Mitch Brown is a waste. I love the Majak story but with so many rucks flying around I feel we could’ve nabbed a cheap one with more upside. Hard to secure a good cheap 3rd ruck but they’re flying around at the moment. Baker especially and Bedford don’t have many AFL traits apart from speed but we’ve seen with someone like Hunt it often pays to just keep backing in speed to see what happens. I feel for Marty Hore if injuries ruin his chance. Declase really has something, he’s too good for VFL. His Casey games showed real talent, but does he have the desire to round out his game and become an AFL footballer?

Tomlinson is more of a backman than a defender. We don’t ever want him one on one against a dangerous mobile forward. I think the doubt is relating to lack of confidence in Hunt’s defensive abilities, lack of confidence in Joel Smith full stop and limited exposure to Deak Smith. And I’d add Riv and Bowey being young too. Riv was excellent defensively for most of the year but I’m not sure we want to limit his role so much. I don’t think there’s much to worry about, but I do think we’ve been spoiled by having Jetta and Hibbo for so long.

Because salary makes them stronger. They now have the chance to keep all their young stars. They’ve also had 2 extra first and 2 extra second rounders through the academy. It’s those selections that mean they can move picks back for future years. I hate it, but for once they are using picks to do more than just draft players, they are trying to retain the list they have of young stars and overpaid but ok senior guys.

Brisbane don’t need to, they just need to get healthy. Dogs need a ruck and a key back. Should get both. Port both need nothing and a lot and can’t get it! Last year all we did was Brown - did nothing for half the year, the pick swap - nothing until the last 7 weeks, and came out as the best team in the comp for the first half of the season. The big thing we did was change assistant coaches and a lot of clubs are doing that.

Declase is 24, he doesn’t rank under 22’s because that would require watching games. So Declase gets a ranking, Turner doesn’t.

Fritsch is an A grade goal kicker but C grade at everything else, that what makes him borderline to me. A grade players don’t have many holes in their game. Maybe a slight weakness here or there like Oliver’s kicking but they can do almost everything else. That said, if Fritsch’s finals put him over the line I can respect that.

My bad. 1 elite player and trade Oliver Bucky is not who I want to be!

Oliver the last guy who was destined straight for the centre square. Sparrow probably had close to a first round rating and Rivers (also rated highly), Bowey and Laurie were all junior mids who could end up there. Spargo too. I reckon we’re getting closer to the scenario every recruiter wants which is to draft quality midfield types. Then if they can win it on the deck, chase and tackle they go to Greg Stafford, if they can halve contests, evade and kick they got to Troy Chaplin. Hand one or two over to Yze after a few preseasons

You really argued that well. Good contribution.

Disagree. It's always development mode. The best coaches like Hardwick, Clarkson, Sheedy have always played kids when they are ready to freshen up their 22, build depth and keep the era rolling. Lesser coaches like Ross Lyon stick with depth players and leave a big dark hole. A really good local coach said to me once, pick your best side but if you're stuck deciding on the 22nd guy then go with the young player. It's simple but sage advice. I was worried we waited too long to give Bowey a chance. Turns out we got it just right, but if the Hunt injury/Hibbo loss of form happened any later we'd be chucking him in to final with 2, 1 or no games experience. Once guys start playing like AFL footballers in the VFL then it's time to take opportunities to get them a taste to see how they go. Sparrow really came on later in the year, but his first half was heavily interrupted by the sub rule and no VFL games. He shouldn't be guaranteed a game and hopefully he won't need to be, but he also deserves a sustained run at it through a few ups and downs to solidify his spot. Same goes for JJ if the opportunity arises. It's not gifting games, it's just a reflection that in 3-4 years time someone like Dunstan is probably retired whilst these guys might be the backbone of our midfield. It doesn't mean we don't need depth, Dunstan's not my cup of tea but I understand the move, but I reckon Goody's had a real knack of playing kids when they are ready and giving them the right amount of time. That should continue.

About the same odds as Hawthorn and the Dogs missing it in 2009 and 2017. Easy to look at the reasons they missed out now in hindsight and say they won't apply to us but I doubt anyone was saying they would before the start of those years. I'd put missing the finals next year as not much less likely than us winning the flag by 70 points before this year. The inability to land a big fish and the possibility of ending up with a pick somewhere between 10-14 next year and having a top 5 guy on JT's board fall to that range are probably more compelling reasons not to do this trade than our pick being in the single figures.

Luke Jackson’s the only type of ruck I’d draft in the top 40. Rookie list, late pick or even bring guys in to train over summer is probably all we should be thinking for the ruck. There’s a number of tall forwards in this draft that I’m sure JT will have his eye on. If the cards don’t fall right for those guys my guess is he’ll look where he always looks - combative, quick midfield types, ideally who can play forward (or back).