Little Goffy

Side note: Andrew Brayshaw, Restricted Free Agent, end of 2025.

Getting real 'I bought you dinner, how dare you not sleep with me' vibes out of Fremantle on this.

Must be quite alarming for Freo supporters to see the number of best-22 and developing players who want out right when they were supposed to be on the cusp of contending.

Reasonably interesting. Mostly an affirmation of things we already know or strongly suspect.

"100%" Petty not going.

Melksham definitely staying for 2024, possibly moved to rookie list. Surgeon extremely happy with early progress.

Club perceives a large jump in available talent at pick 11 compared to pick 14. 'Confident of getting two top quality players with 6 and 11'.

This is more like it.

Alyssa Bannan is clearly biologically superior to the rest of us mere mortals.

Well, Carlton have had an outstanding top 6 for most of the last 20 years...

I think a lot of it comes down to how well you can use them. Both St Kilda and Sydney offer case studies in having a really elite top group and then having a system that mitigates weaknesses as you reach the tail of your best 22.

Richmond also managed to combine a small elite contingent with a bulk of really hard working players who ensured that not too much ground was lost when the elite needed to rest. Then they all switch mode when Martin et al are all refreshed on the scene.

There's a beautiful expression I picked up from my study of historical strategists (not an exact recollection but close);

"If every time there are eight cats to be caught the grenadiers are sent for, their power will quickly be dissipated."

14 hours ago, mo64 said:

Curtin plays at Casey all year whilst Reid wins the Eagles BnF. They'd be asking for Curtin + 2 top 5 picks for Reid.

That doesn't clarify which player is better, though!

Most of our current best 22 would make a top-3 finish in the Eagles BnF. I'm not even joking.

Personally I'm shocked that West Coast haven't done a lot more to try to bring in a least a few respectable strong bodies to fill out their midfield. Or maybe they have and they are just so on the nose that nobody will go?

Bringing Reid in as currently their only selection in the first round is just cruel to the kid.

I wonder what it would take to get West Coast's future first for 2024?

1 hour ago, chook fowler said:

Let’s hold a referendum 

If you're not sure who you want to take at pick one, pass.

Darling, Brown and McDonald all sitting in the club corporate box for $1.5m would indeed be amazing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

The pick 1 hype situation is getting out of hand.

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

99% of their players aren’t worth [censored] 

Amy chance we can get Hunt back?

I was watching some Curtin game clips this evening and kept getting this feeling like there was something familiar about him that made me feel good. It really bugged me - like I was missing something important.

Took me hours and a return session watching more clips but I finally figure it out.

Tall and fairly lean but with solid arms and shoulders. Something in the way he hunches forward when in congestion and then straightens up as he emerges. The way he'd do nimble little moves and it would seem like his long limbs were stretching out and twanging back again like elastic. Something in the kind of loping stride he did as he slowed down after taking a defensive mark at speed. Even something about his hair, narrow cheeks and the way his mouth would hang open a bit.

I could be completely mad but he reminded me of Jim Stynes. Enough that I got a little emotional.

Petty will be a Restrictred Free Agent when he comes out of contract in 2025, at which time, based on the current compensation calcualtions for tall defenders... we should get Pick 1, Pick 2 and exclusive fishing rights in the Bass Strait for 20 years.

Looks like a nice young man with an excellent head of hair.

I think the impact on pick numbers might be a bit of a red herring when planning trade/positioning tactics.

There are five players considered first round picks who are not actually available. They won't be available if you have pick 3 and they won't be available if you have pick 33. Quite possible that North would have loved to go Walter & Read for 2 and 3 and get their tall stocks under control.

It does fairly represent the impact of the idiotic Gold Coast massive talent subsidy scheme, though. Feels a bit like the French government paying farmers to burn their crops.

Yeah, surely Shane McAdam is at most a 'nice to have' type and far from being essential. With 2024 the 'deep for Victorian midfielders' draft we'd be better off hanging onto the pick.

Just doing a quick mental check, McAdam would be competing for a spot with;

Neal-Bullen, Hunter, Spargo, Chandler, Sparrow, Pickett, Woewodin, Laurie and even the rookies Howes, Moniz-Wakefield and Sestan. Petracca counts, as will Melksham when he comes back in, and I'd even say Joel Smith though the type is a bit different.

Throw in the likelihood that one of the our early draft targets will be something like McKercher, Duursma, Watson, Wilson or even Tholstrup.

14 hours ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

I don't think I've come across any other professional sport where so many players are homesick for places that are an hour or so away by air or a few hours by road with exactly the same culture, food and language. 

I agree completely with the general point, but in this case aren't we talking about Wudinna? Where the Petty family make up 2% of the population!

56 minutes ago, DubDee said:

if a player makes a decision based on more money it’s not a go home factor issue and that’s fine. 

If they make a career defining decision due to a city being busy with traffic or too hectic well that’s pretty astounding. 

If i got paid big money to live away with a new ‘family’ of 45 mates to play footy i’d think i’m the luckiest bloke in the world. 

If a player could be paid 200k more, and also move closer to home, and to a city they feel more comfortable in, it would be mentally unhinged not to do so.

If that's the situation, then every additional day Petty stays with us is a beautiful gift that we should appreciate as Petty putting the club before himself.

And some people are questioning his grasp of loyalty. Gross.

6 minutes ago, McQueen said:

You’ve gotta be careful with these type of picks.

 

I’ve seen people get as deep as the second knuckle and literally change their mind. 😏

If successful, you gain a skill increase in lockpicking and 'Congratulations, your nose is now open'.

If your skill is too low, then there is a risk every time that you will give yourself a cerebral hemorrhage.

Make of it what you will.

The interest in him keeps bubbling along. Personally I don't feel like he's that much of a special or game-changing player but it is always possible I have no idea what I'm talking about.

If he is just another elite small forward, I'm not interested. But if he has the tank and traffic sense to run through the midfield and be really creative there, he could make a difference to our game from a very early point in his career.

Basically I'm asking; is Nick Watson the new Brent Harvey?

27 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I think Albert Einstein wasted his time developing his theory of relativity and telling us that E=MC squared. We all would have been much better off if he'd used his talents on the mathematics of trading and drafting.

You'd need to call Heisenberg.

Draft night is the wavefunction collapse.

3 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

The newer generations don't understand the concept of loyalty, honesty and hard work.

They only understand the Tik Tok and Instagram "clout", whatever that means.

You're joking, right?

Or is this Poe's law in full action?

From the AFL website's article on the Suns trading down of pick 4. After the Bulldogs got 4, there was a frenzy...

"It started with the Demons, who shifted picks No.14, 27 and 35 to get to pick No.11. It continued with the Crows, who gave up picks No.23 and 26 to get pick No.14 and defender Chris Burgess from the Suns."

Interesting comparisons of values;

14, 27 and 35 were worth 11. 14+27+35 = 11

23 and 26 were worth 14 and Burgess - a steak knives at best depth player. 23+26=14

So, if you compress the equations in this draft; 23+26+27+35 = 11

Meanwhile, pick number 4 was deemed worth three mid-late first round picks; 11, 18 and a future first. We've already worked out that 11 alone is worth four second round picks, with three of them right at the start of the second round.

A low-ball estimate would be that recruiters consider a single top-5 pick to be worth as much as seven or eight second round picks.

Good job IT Dept!

(It is just nice to have a chance to say that)

Is there where we put the Nick Haynes Pick 7 Salary Dump conversation?

We give six and 11 for North's 3 and 18.

North give 2 and 15 (and probably more) for West Coast's 1.

North take Reid at 1 and still have 6 and 11 to play with at the premium end.

West Coast gets their boy Curtin at 2 and have at least an additional first round pick for their trouble.

We get [Taylor's secret herbs and spices] at 3 and [Taylor's pulled beef slider] at 18.

Rationale is that North have late first round picks coming out the ears and no real need for them, but 6 and 11 are pointy enough to matter to them. West Coast have to rebuild a list and want those extra late-first round picks, but also would want to be sure of getting Curtin, making 2 necessary for them. Meanwhile we always have our eye on some gun at the top of the table and have a record of drafting high-low rather than a spread.

Yeah, I know, just playing a game of 'nearest the pin' here.

45 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I think what has been overlooked is where these picks will end up. There's only one definite Northern Academy player that will go to Gold Coast before 11 and that's Jed Walters. It's quite possible that Ethan Read & Jake Rogers go after 11 but before 14. And Jordan Croft has now nominated as a Bulldogs Father/Son. So, 11 could end up as high as 12, 14 could end up as low as 18 (or even 19 if Hawthorn take Father/Son Will McCabe around about that point).

And at the other end of the pole, pick 40 could drop well into the 30s given the vast collections of picks which are going to be cashed for points.

Gold Coast currently have four second round picks and pick 18, which will likely all be cashed.

Bulldogs will probably set themselves with two late second-rounders to build points for Ashcroft.

Hawthorn may well upgrade a second pick into the late 30s to be ready to get Will McCabe.

Plus, Kynan Brown might get bid on in the second round, in which case, well, bugger it, why burn the second-rounder we had anyway when a couple in the 40s will do?

Still, seems a lot to pay to go from 14 to 11.