Adam The God

It's the weekend mate.

Can anyone share this vision, if accessible please? Thanks.

If you watch that play to the end, a handball would have seen Trac cut off by a quickly closing Quaynor.

Handball to Petracca? He had a player right on his hammer and was backing off towards that player as well.

Not exactly happy with it, but I don't think chipping it around the arc against a high press, speedy transition team was thw answer either. I keep reading that our method is off or that we need do better forward, but nothing I've read so far has said how. We are a contest winning team. We're the number one winning contest team. So it means we dominate territory, which means the entire opposition is in our forward half, making it hugely difficult to score etc etc. I'd like to hear how you'd improve forward connection if we're constantly winning contest and therefore usually entering our 50 when it's congested. We chained out of contests by hand for months, but unless you move the ball quickly by foot and get it inside 50, you will not beat the modern defensive zone.

We then lose a major bounce from half back. Unless, of course, we shift Salem into the Rivers intercept role and lose some speed, but keep the ball use and decision-making in Salem, plus get him into the game.

In that same game, IMV he cost us at least one goal and the way they transitioned that night from front to back when he was a half forward was alarming. It's not just on him, but you do only need one weak link in the chain. He needs to get fitter and understand his positioning better.

He gets lost in the zone and press. He'll be a handy player, but not this year IMO. Now watch him get selected this week. 😄

We could win by more, I agree that we could do better, but our method still turned the ball over/won the ball back and got two shots within 35m (slight/to no angle) for both Fritta and TMac (arguably our best kicks at goal). Kick them, and we win. If you do not convert regulation set shots (ie less pressure than shots from open play), you will not win finals. Look at 3 of the 4 finals in week one. The teams that kicked straighter won, and the teams that started well, won. I'm not denying there's huge scope for improvement with our ball movement, forward craft and forward half play, but despite this, the method still generated more scoring shots that expected score calculated should lead to a comfortable win. That's method succeeding and execution failing. So it's not on the coaches or even the players behind the ball or through the middle of the ground, it's that those taking shots and missing gettable shots, cost us the game.

No, it doesn't. We had 3 more scoring shots than them, plus 7 on the full ons. That's 10 scoring shots and expected score suggests many were more than gettable and we should have won. We kicked 3.7.25 to 6.4.40 from turnover when we average 58.1 points from turnover a game and concede 41 points. That's the game right there. Our inability to convert our chances from turnover lost us the game. Not our method.

Having just read all 22 pages, I'm glad I stayed off this thread for 48 hours. The amount of wrist slashing and doom and gloom is hilariously Demonland on the Saturday night of this posting, but would have been frustratingly mind melting any time before this. I've now processed some of my frustration from Thursday night and am ready to dig a little a deeper. I do want to remind some Demonlanders though of the lead up to the QF, where there was hardly a negative word written and people were supremely confident of a win. I thought we'd win and am shattered that we didn't, but the way some have hugely flipflopped based on one result is truly emotional muppetry. Maybe set more realistic expectations going into this week? Despite this, I can certainly understand the frustration, hence staying out of this thread for so long myself. However, if we can make the GF and it's against Collingwood, IMO we have them covered providing we kick straight. The atmosphere in the last quarter was very similar to much of the KB game in that Collingwood supporters were clearly packing themselves, because they saw their team being mauled at the contest and us generating multiple inside 50s and very good (and gettable) chances that should have been taken. But what's done is done and we have a chance to redeem ourselves next week. I'm hoping we can conjure a bit of the 2015 Premiers about us this finals series (ie, lose the QF, run rampant in the SF, beat an interstate side away from home in the PF and smash the original winner of the QF in the GF). I'm more worried though about getting past Carlton than I am playing Brisbane, but Brisbane would be a tough test too. One week at a time though. Selection will be fascinating again. My initial instinct was we'd have to bring in Grundy, but we may just resort to bringing in another runner (Jordon at this point) and bringing in Turner to play forward or back. And does Spargo come in for Chandler or Laurie? (don't bother answering this one, Picket) What I'd like most of all is, and I don't think we can win the flag unless this starts to happen, is for us to start the game properly. And I mean, we need our midfield, our engine room to start the game hard, fast and on from the first bounce. It's been at least 6 games since we started well. Our first quarters against Richmond (R20 with 3.5 to 5.4), North (R21 with 1.3 to 5.5!), Carlton (R22 with 1.0 to 1.3, but only due to our amazing defence and defensive system rather than our midfield winning clearance and territory), Hawthorn (R23 with 3.2 to 4.2), Sydney (R24 with 3.2 to 2.5) and then Collingwood (1.0 to 4.2). So we've won 1 first quarter in six weeks and that was arguably due to Sydney's inaccurate kicking. I can cop that in the H&A season, particularly if you know you've got fitness on your side and you're eventually running over teams, but in finals football, the pressure on every play is different and you don't want to spend the whole game chasing. Think back to the 2021 finals series. In the QF against Brisbane, we were 5.4 to 4.2 at quarter time. In the PF against Geelong, we were 5.3 to 1.0, and in the GF, we were 4.5 to 1.2. So we won all first quarters. That is what you need to do in finals. Simple as that. If we're going to go any further this year, we need to start doing two major things. 1) We need to start winning first quarters and putting early scoreboard pressure on our opposition. This puts them under more pressure to score, knowing how difficult we are to break down defensively, and that in turn, increases our scoring chances from turnover. Which, btw, we kept Collingwood to 1 point less than our average of 41 points conceded from turnover. So our defence and defensive system was exceptional on Thursday night. Which brings me to... 2) Where we let ourselves down against Collingwood, and if we're to go further this year, is we need to convert our scoring chances from turnover. We've averaged 51.8 points from turnover this season and on Thursday, we kicked 3.7.25 (!) from turnover to Collingwood's 6.4.40. We lost the game in conversion from turnover. So our method is strong, there is no need to panic in terms of wholesale personnel changes. We have the two forced changes and possibly whether we could get more out of Spargo than we did Chandler, but I'm not convinced on that front and will trust the FD there. If we win the first quarter and we convert our chances, we will be extremely difficult to beat and I'll go as far as saying, we won't be beaten if we do this. Apologies for the book. Lap it up. And thanks to @WheeloRatings for his brilliant score source stats in the Stats thread.

If you want to boil it down simplistically, you kick a winning score, based on method. The method is how you get there. And the method got us there 16 times on a season. The method isn't the problem. It's the execution. Fritsch, TMac both missed multiple gettable shots they'd usually get, that's the game right there, before we even mention the 6 other on the fulls.

Nice analysis.

Our strength is clearly contested ball and therefore our ability to get it inside 50. We are number 1 for both in the comp and have been for years. Even 2019. So it was always about getting strength behind the ball and team defence to ensure we could lock it in and play territory. We've done that now and finished top 4 three years in a row and won a flag within that (and still in it this year), and the next step IMV is improving the forwardline personnel. And since territory derived from winning the contest is our strength, we're number one for stopping defensive transition and conceding scores from it. Injury has meant our method hasn't so far been able to go to the next level in the forward half (our main targets Fritta, Petty, BB and Tmac all missing huge chunks of the season), but despite all these injuries, our system has seen us finish in the top 4. So yes, I'd say we're maximising our strengths.

Agreed that it's likely Gus retires now, so we will need to find someone else and it's not JJ. I wouldn't mind trying McVee in Rivers' role next year and shifting Rivers into the midfield. You then have Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Sparrow, Rivers and hopefully Gus can get back. If he goes retire, that would change my position. In the middle of the year, I wasn't sold on Gus being in my 22 at the end of this year, but he proved how important he was at the back end of 23 IMO. So it's a huge hole, if he does hang up the boots.

Exactly. They need picks. I'd happily give them our natural first for Lynch for 2-3 years. Totally worth it if we win 2024 or 2025 IMO.

I just wrote to you about this in the other thread mate. I think these concerns are overblown and we'd hope Rivers and Bowey can step into the midfield over the next 18 months. If we can add a Callaghan type, I think we'd have really good balance in there. Then use the FA window to strengthen our list gap in the 24-27 demo.

Everyone I sat with on Thursday felt Sparrow really lifted (irrespective of actual possessions) in the third quarter and that goal he kicked, gave us a sniff. But each to their own. We also have guys like Bowey and Rivers waiting in the wings. There's no reason both can't step into the midfield in the next 18 months IMV. Our midfield problems are overblown IMO, but I wouldn't mind adding a player like GWS' Callaghan to the mix as well as Bowey and Rivers.

We have a different method to Collingwood as @old55 and @binman regularly say. The way we move the ball given our territory dominance means we need good contested markers. This is why we rely so heavily on Max. Collingwood are very ordinary (aside from the first quarter) at contested possession (13th league wide). They rely on conceding territory, which leaves space in behind for their kickers and runners to penetrate into an empty forwardline. It's why they don't rely on a key forward. They play to their list's strengths, which is what we do too. However, without TMac, BB and eventually Petty to compete in the air forward of the ball, we aren't as potent. As a rule, TMac, BB and Petty are excellent set shots (TMac was unusually wayward, which was a factor in our loss), so IMO we need more genuine class in the air and at ground level. Petty, I think can be one of those dominant threats in the air, but I think we need a second in the short term that will relegate JVR to the third tall and leave Fritta as the 4th banana, and I reckon that'll elevate JVRs game.

I'd go Watson and O'Sullivan, and tempt Tom Lynch over for 2-3 years to partner Petty.

When we play in the wet, we can tend to play the percentages more, which means kicking long as our main mode of entry. I think if we'd tried to chip the ball around more and found a shorter target around the arc or inside 50, we'd have been super vulnerable to slingshot goals on turnover. Against Geelong for example, we constantly tried to chain out of contests by hand when we should have been more about getting territory. Tonight, we were more about getting territory. The problem with that in the modern game is you've got essentially the entire opposition camped in your attacking 50, which makes scoring tougher. At the end of the day though, we're not having these conversations if TMac kicks his 35m directly in front one or Fritta at least scores from his 35m, slight angle kick, Langdon kicks the one from the goal square he took advantage on and the 6 other out on the fulls from our guys tonight.

Demonland hugs then. It's pretty hard losing to that mob and even harder to take when we squandered so many gettable opportunities to not win the game comfortably by 2 or 3 goals.

Hope you're doing okay, @jane02. Maybe we'll get a chance to avenge tonight in the GF.

He might have to try and make it work next week. I can't see a world where Grundy doesn't come in if JVR gets suspended.

The rules are jargon haha. Righto mate.