RalphiusMaximus

Trav mk. 2

So that's three or four key forwards who have all been leaked as singing with the pies today. Someone is playing silly buggers trying to throw everyone off the scent of what they are really up to.

So what are Collingwood going to trade for him? He's not a free agent is he? What possible deal could they put forward that Adelaide would accept?

I would say the value is exactly the same as that of a B&F in a top side as far as this system is concerned. There is no way to measure how they would have polled in another side, so the only thing they can use is how they went in our side. If you forget about your own opinion of the player and look at the numbers available for use in the Great Mysterious Hidden Formula they both have to have value. Rives was a second round pick, rising star, repeat top five in the B&F and one of our highest paid players. Beamer was traded for no. 12, has polled well in the brownlow, won a B&F and is again in the upper bracket for wages at the club. All of these are factors which can be used to determine a value for the player. While it could be argued that the clubs ladder position can also be factored in, it would be supremely counterproductive to do so as it would be giving a massive advantage to the clubs already at the top. Perhaps it should be two middle of the road picks, but the system they are using assigns one pick based on the overall loss of players, not individual picks based on their value. In aggregate we are talking about the two best players at the club in the 2011 season. Tell me what the two best players of any other club in the league are worth in compensation, even if they have since been passed by some younger models. We're talking Boak and Tregove for PA. Ablett and Bock for Gold Coast. Boyd and Murphy for the Bulldogs. Added to these two we also have the value of any other players who leave us. Bate was a first round pick. If he goes, that is added to the pot as well. This is the basis for my assumptions above. The formula has to be based on the value of the players to the club they are leaving. As such, while many regard our players as being crap, worthless or any other negative terminology they care to use, in terms of the AFL's formula they have value, and we can use that if we are willing. The first tier compensation is a pick immediately following our first round pick, and that is a carrot worth aiming for, especially given the relatively weak fodder on offer during this FA period. Which brings us back to the OP. How highly do we rate Lynch? What would you offer for him in trade? If it's not a first round pick then we don't want him, because that is effectively what we are giving up by chasing him as a free agent. Personally, I would be reluctant to give up a second round pick for him in trade, so for me the only reason to move on him would be if I assumed we were going to get the bottom tier of compensation and a third round pick in return for our losses. Given the points I have already made, I can't see any real value in chasing him as a Free agent, and the same goes for the other players on offer.

I am 100% behind that move, should we make it. I've wished for years that we could lure some of those freakish seven foot tall monsters from the NBA and the lower leagues. Anyone remember Carl Molone? Imagine him playing AFL.

And they built that list through shrewd trading and drafting, not picking up free agents. Melbourne on the other hand has drafted relatively poorly and has had very poor player development, both areas we are hoping to see improve under the new football department, so I don't see the lessons of the past really applying. I have nothing against free agency as long as there is someone out there worth getting, but I'm not seeing it at the moment. For my money the only one I would like to see at the club is Byrnes.

It is very serious. The value of the compensation has to be linked to the value of the players to the club they are leaving. Moloney and Rivers, whatever people on these boards think of them, have very high value in these terms. Given that the compensation is derived from the aggregate of the value of all players moving in and out of the club via free agency, there is every chance that if we lose two or three of our highest paid players we will get top tier compensation, especially since the compensation isn't "pick 5" but rather "a first round pick after our first round pick."

About the only way they could make room in the salary cap as well, although they could offer him a job with Visy.

You can make changes to your list without bringing in Free Agents. Maximising our FA compo improves our ability to trade and draft, which are the usual methods of doing this.

Important point that Rodan isn't a free agent. This could give us some options. Didn't I see somewhere that delisted players will be able to be picked up as free agents after the official FA period? I could be very wrong in that, but I swear I've seen it somewhere. If that is the case we could grab him for free. If not, we can always pick him up in the PSD.

This is all very true. My argument against taking anyone through FA is based on the notion that we could potentially upgrade ourselves to pick 5 as compensation for the players lost and that this is worth more than any of the free agents we might sign. I look at the crop available and I have to think that there isn't a player there worth more to us than pick 5 in this years draft. Of course, I have no way of knowing how the AFL would grade the players we are losing but we have last year's B&F winner and a guy who has finished top 5 two years running, both of whom are in the top paid layers at the club. Surely that will count for something? Plus we have a good chance of Bate moving on, although he hasn't been talked about that much. Added to this calculation is the fact that, as stated above, I like a few other players more than I like Lynch to fill the spot in our forward line. They are risky because of their history of injuries, but I think the potential upside is greater and they stand to be at the club for most of the nest decade rather than a couple of years.

We can get stopgap players by trading for them. There are more and better players up for grabs in the trade period than there are in Free Agency. If all else fails we can grab a delisted player or two in November for free. We don't need to do anything in the Free Agency period at all and we will come out winners.

I could get behind this.

Fitzpatrick! Or trade for Gumby. Even the rumour of interest in Butcher. I like all of these better than moving on Lynch. In every case they are a long-term prospect, even if there are concerns about their ability to keep on the park. Also, they don't involve Free Agency.

Yep. This is why I'd rather see us take nobody during free agency. We need to maximise our compensation. The loss of Moloney, Rivers and Bate should be enough to warrant top compensation, but that could be ruined if we go and pick up a short-term stop-gap player like Rodan or Lynch.

Don't want him. Yes he's a better forward than anything we have bar Clark, but he's close to past it and I think we are better off looking for someone younger.

If we took him, surely he'd be playing as a forward pocket. He has never had the endurance to be a midfielder. Looks to me like a short-term prospect to add some potency to a pretty sad excuse for a forward line.

I'm pretty sure you don't get penalised draft picks if you have a net gain in the draft.

I have to agree with the sentiment of the OP. While there are a couple of decent players available who could help us, I think there is more potential in not taking a FA this year. If our net loss of players is great enough, we stand to get a first tier compensation pick. That would give us picks 3, 4 and 5 in the draft. Much better than a questionable player who nobody else wants.

Our best bet this year is to take no FA at all. If we can get our net loss of players high enough we will get pick 5 as compensation. Much better than a NQR FA.

I've just had a rather interesting thought ragarding the whole FA mess. What would happen if we were to sit it out and not move on anyone? According to The Article on the AFL site, your compensation is based on your net gain/loss of players during the FA period. As such, if we were to have Moloney (a former B&F and one of our top-payed players) and Rivers (Two years running in our top 5) and possibly Bate as well, we would be in line for a 1st tier compensation. This would give us picks 3, 4 and 5 in the draft. Even if we have by this stage been forced to take Viney with pick three, we still have two top five picks to use. If we were somehow lucky enough to snare Viney with our second round pick, we would be sitting on a gold mine with three top five picks. Anyone else think this tactic is worth more to us than a mid-range player who can't get a game with their own side?

Not covered in the Article on the AFL site supposedly explaining FA rules. Great work they're doing.

Freo have put an offer on the table. Has Pearce accepted it? The FA gets to declare the club he wants to go to, it's not just up to who puts up the biggest bid.

Not that fussed. In all honesty, most of the free agents on offer don't do all that much for me. Some of them would no doubt be an improvement to our list, but I don't think any of them are massive pick-ups who will change the face of the MFC.

You're assuming that they will be given a compo pick before our pick 13? I agree that they will deserve a good pick, but who knows how the AFL and their super-top-secret-extra-special-formula will actually work?