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Everything posted by Fromgotowoewodin
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Exactly. Lots of reasons why people can’t get to games (family commitments, work commitments, distance, health, lack of cash etc) but if we can’t all get on the internet and go off about footy then what is the internet even for?
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Time to put the 'Kozzy Form Slump' bias to bed!
Fromgotowoewodin replied to waynewussell's topic in Melbourne Demons
This is clearly just making stuff up in your own head - he got rubbed out in round 1 and as per the OP his output is at or above his career average since then - so how exactly is he a shadow of the player he was? His shadow is outperforming the player he was! -
Time to put the 'Kozzy Form Slump' bias to bed!
Fromgotowoewodin replied to waynewussell's topic in Melbourne Demons
I get the hype and the expectation but he’s 22, playing the hardest position on the ground to impact consistently because you’re reliant on luck much of the time. Effort is there, it’ll turn for him -
Time to put the 'Kozzy Form Slump' bias to bed!
Fromgotowoewodin replied to waynewussell's topic in Melbourne Demons
Three tackles, 2 i50 - tackle in the champion data definition being “using physical contact to prevent an opponent in possession of the ball from getting an effective disposal” Unfortunate timing on this post as I’d agree this was about his worst game but the logic of it stands up. The scrutiny on him is bordering hysterical. -
Are we in premiership form? No. But we kicked straight, we had space and movement in the forward line, we found some easier goals than we have in a long 5-6 weeks. Trac forward worked, but without Clarry leaves us exposed in the midfield so Saints got some clearances they shouldn’t. Gawndy still worries me, Brodie isn’t a contested marking forward and Max isn’t 100% fit for mine. Kozzie quiet, doesn’t worry me. Effort is there. ANB did some good things, ain’t the problem either. edit: BBB good for mine, he’s past chasing half backs up the ground but he leads and creates space, good disposal and should’ve had 2 goals.
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We know the ball is going to be in our forward line >50 times, so there will be chances. Pies again showed what you can do if you move the ball in quickly and have your forwards on the move creating space, that’s what I would like to see today. Happy for the team plan to still be contested ball but you’ve got to be able to switch modes and move it quick. Time to start hitting the score board and lock in that double chance.
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Yep, our best 22 has May, Lever & Petty back, Tomlinson is a backup. JVR should be up front instead of Melk imo, leave Petty where he is
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He can, but he’s averaging 6 kicks in 2023. Jordan has to get 41 in the VFL to get a gig, Spargo gets in on trust. I’d prefer to see him get 20 & 2 in the VFL and then bring him in.
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This. Subbed off against the pies with 6 touches, subbed on against the cats and got 2 - not sure how he got to the front of the queue.
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Spargo in but JVR not?? Did Spargo even play VFL last week? Am I taking crazy pills? Outs all make sense at least
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Ben Brown and our forward line transition
Fromgotowoewodin replied to McQueen's topic in Melbourne Demons
He probably doesn’t have TMac’s tank, but TMac is a pretty elite runner. I think JVR has enough of a tank to get up onto the wings and back. The problem is 2021 we had TMac and BBB leading to the wings and then kicking it into an open forward line, now our full backs are at the centre and everyone else is pushed inside 50, no space, no leads, scrappy entries, lotsa points. -
Ben Brown and our forward line transition
Fromgotowoewodin replied to McQueen's topic in Melbourne Demons
I back JVR to do the TMac role, he’s young but he’s shown enough imo. TMac 2021 33 goals in 22 games, 1.43 goals per game. JVR 2023 17 goals in 12, 1.41 goals per game. TMac 2021 5.3 marks per game is where JVR needs to lift, currently getting 3.2. More space in the forward line and a bit more roaming onto the wings gets him more marks. Our best 23 imo would have JVR, BBB and Fritsch and Petty would go back pushing Tomlinson out, given the Fritta injury I think Petty forward, Tomlinson in down back, Smith out. Rucks playing as forwards hasn’t worked imo. It works when you can outwork your opponent and push forward on your own, or somehow sneak a mismatch on a smaller defender. Teams are playing a tall on them both when they go in and so they aren’t taking marks, just blocking up space that the other forwards could work in. -
Ben Brown and our forward line transition
Fromgotowoewodin replied to McQueen's topic in Melbourne Demons
I don’t really know but my guess is a fit BBB is in the coaches best 23, and I agree with that, he was massively important in 2021. But I’d have had him in for Smith this week instead of JVR. Next week I assume we get JVR in for Fritta. I’d also say that they rate Petty above Tomlinson which I also agree with, although it looks like they brought Petty back too early and Tomlinson was stiff to get dropped after his best game. I don’t think there’s a spot for Petty forward with both BBB, JVR and Smith so maybe Smith out and Petty forward? -
Ben Brown and our forward line transition
Fromgotowoewodin replied to McQueen's topic in Melbourne Demons
One point I will defend the coaches on is not making a late change - we were playing 15th on the ladder ffs, we should just be able to name a 23, roll them out and win whether it was raining or not. That we weren’t able to get the win shows how bad the whole lot are going rather than that we went in with too many talls imo -
Getting a kick is a basic requirement of the game, yet those that get more are more highly rated than those who get less. Similar with i50 tackles, he’s 2nd in the comp at a basic requirement of his job, and in the top ~5% at other basic requirements. Makes him pretty good. He isn’t in a slump, the team is. Every time he gets the ball there’s 29 other bodies inside 50, clear it out and you’d be amazed at what he can do. Stupidly congested forward 50? That we can agree on..
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No hard ball gets? 19 possessions yesterday 9 contested, 10 uncontested. 5 tackles, behind only Viney for us. How many have stuck? The ones that get counted. How many have resulted in free kicks? Could probably look that up somewhere but I dunno. 2 frees for yesterday. 1.2 yesterday, only player with more scores was Trac with 0.4. Kozzie had 1 assist and 6 score involvements.
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I’m not overly impressed with any of them at the moment. I’m telling you he’s doing his job and the problems lie elsewhere. Let’s have a look where he sits in the league: 22 goals has him =31st overall for goal kicking, behind the following small forwards: Charlie Cameron (37), Rankine (30), Breust (28), Higgins (27), Papley (25), Walters (25). Walters has played same games as Kozzie (13), Bruest 1 more and the others 2 more. 5.9 avg score involvements has him 52nd overall, 31st for forwards. Behind Rankine (7.0), Miers (6.93), Bolton (6.33), Rachele (6.13), Higgins & Papley (6.0). Ahead of C Cameron, Weightman, Rayner. Tackles i50, his 29 is 2nd overall behind Shultz (31 in 2 more games) Small forward output is a function of effort and opportunities, his effort is there, opportunities are limited by the lack of space to work in.
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Is it loading or heavy training? I don’t know, I don’t know what they’re doing during the week so may be really punishing themselves to build for finals but I haven’t seen any indication of that on the socials. The only definitive answer will come if we come out of it and start running on top of the ground come finals. What I will say is I had a lot of theories last year, loading, maybe we weren’t playing our best 22, or had a different forward line plan that we were keeping under wraps for the finals or we’re just cruising to stay fresh for finals and when the whips were cracking we’d come good. Final round we [censored] the lions and I started to think “hello, here we go!”, then we play 2 finals looking like we were absolutely cooked and the season was done - turns out I’d been huffing copium. Is that the case this year? Maybe not but I’m not going all in on hope until I see us play in a final and play well
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Lot of Kozzie sledging on here, just be aware: 22 goals, behind only Fritsch (29) Ave 5.9 score involvements, behind only Trac & Clarry 12 goal assists, behind only Trac (20) 22 marks i50, behind only Fritsch (30) 4.5 ave tackles, behind only Viney (5.8), Clarry (5.6), ANB (5). He’s outright first for tackles i50. He flies for some marks he shouldn’t, takes shots at goal he could pass, sometimes sprays some kicks but he ain’t the problem and anyone who thinks he’s going anywhere near Casey is kidding themselves.
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As with the Dees, if you don’t take your chances early in the game you can get close late but you leave yourself open to one bit of luck for the opposition stuffing your whole day
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Not sure about Kingy’s solution of Trac forward though - kicking more points isn’t gonna help. They’re spot on with the rest though. “They play too slow, too wide. There are so many numbers inside their forward 50 that it makes it hard. Every shot Petracca is having is under pressure, Kozzie Pickett is getting shots at goal but there‘s numbers everywhere,” Montagna told First Crack. “I think they‘re making it really difficult for themselves because they’re focused so heavily on the defensive contest side of it. I’ve just think they’ve got to find the balance.” This - clear it out and let the forwards work
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Yep, we would have to have the most congested forward line in the comp. Crowded, no movement and when our small forwards get it they’ve got no room to do anything. Gawn/Grundy are just clogging it up, get them back out onto the wing so the opposition has to kick it to them or around them to get out and make some space for the forwards.
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JVR back in for Frittata for mine. Does good things at ground level Smith but he’s not a 2nd forward, let him play as a mobile high forward. Let JVR and Brown play as the talls, keep the ruckmen out of the way unless they’re actually capable of taking an overhead mark (which Grundy never is and Gawn isn’t at the moment), they’re just getting in the way now.
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No, we didn’t Chandler 12 disposals @83%, 4 score involvements Bedford 9 disposals @55%, 1 score involvement. Did lay 7 tackles but wasn’t great. 6 goals for the year vs Chin’s 15
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Richmond copped a wake up call in 2018, then came back and won the next 2. We copped a wake up call in 2022 and then.. seems like we hung up and went back to bed