old55

No because both Sydney and Hawthorn would have 13 wins going into R23 and they both can't win that game. Only a draw would put us out.

IMO the most likely safe path to the 8 with 13 wins: R21: MFC d Syd R21: Geel d Haw R22: Ade d Nth Then North and the loser of Sydney and Hawthorn in the last round cannot make it no matter what else happens in R22 and 23.

Richmond v Gold Coast could get ugly this week - the 190 points record in play. (edited - see post below)

If you look at this page: https://live.squiggle.com.au/#tower You need to click on TOWER in the top menu bar It shows the probability of finishing position based on running (10,000?) simulations Max Barry's footy data visualisation is 2nd to none

Big ask for Joel Smith

It's impossible to fathom the thinking of many posters here. "Viney upsets the balance of the midfield", "Viney's not that good anyway", "Viney will never play again". He's a bona fide star who won the 2016 B&F at 22. He makes us better and I am hope he is able to get back for finals as planned.

First week of VFL Finals coincides with the AFL week off. He could make it back for that and get game minutes. Viney is exactly who we need come AFL finals.

I picked up my bags, I went looking for a place to hide When I saw old Carmen and the Devil, walking side by side I said, "Hey, Carmen, c'mon, let's go downtown" She said, "I gotta go, but my friend can stick around"

You thought we'd lose to Gold Coast

I'm in favour of red card but it has to remain 18 v 18 on the field. Red card is only applied if the targetted player is out of the rest of the game - then it's 21 v 21.

That's true but 200 points is a big IF

IMO if we can beat Sydney we just need one of Hawthorn d Geelong OR Adelaide d North to make it on 13

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur: North wins all 3 Geelong wins all 3 Hawthorn wins 2 Collingwood wins 2 Port wins 2 Sydney wins 2 Because that puts them on 14 wins.

It only takes 2 of those 4 "2 win" scenarios for us to miss out on 13 wins (along win North and Geelong winning all 3). It's quite possible.

Not really: North and Geelong win all 3 2 of Port, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Sydney win 2

I think it should be Wagner in for Smith, we extended his contract, this is the type of situation he's required for. Bernie looked way off, I love him but he looks passed it, I'd have him out too and play Fritsch back. Back 7 - Jetta, Oscar, Wagner, Lewis, Frost, Salem, Fritsch. Melksham in or if he's not ready then Kent or Hannan. I think Frost is the preferred match up for Buddy.

The difference is you can't match the offer for an unrestricted FA and force a trade. In Lynch's case it probably doesn't matter because GC will finish low and their compensation pick after their first rounder - say pick 3 will be at around trade market value. However in Gaff's case it does matter because WC's compensation pick after is likely to be late teens and well below trade market value so they might take the option to match and force a trade at market value. If the AFL want to differentiate the RFA and UFA categories further they could remove compensation for UFA. http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

The equations above work in reverse for me too. If we are within 27 points or within a goal a minute in the last 4 minutes we're a chance.

I feel comfortable at 27 points up, when it's below that there's uneasiness. vs Crows from Q4 2:02 when Galucci goaled we were <27 ahead vs Geelong from Q4 4:08 when Hawkins goaled we were <27 ahead As posted above, in the last 4 minutes it's a goal per minute threshold.

Spargo guaranteed 100+ games player. Probable 200 game Premiership player.

I like the inclusion of VDB, he was in my pre-season best 22. I'm nervous with JKH, Garlett and Spargo all in the side going into finals - and they have weaker opposition this week to consolidate their positions. I'd like to see at least some bigger bodies - Melksham and maybe Kent to come in for one or two of them.

Definitely an Essendon win is better for us. They are not going to win all four with Richmond and Port away in there. If North win all 4 (more likely than Essendon winning all 4) and Hawthorn win 3 we can miss even with 13 wins.

Hawthorn v Essendon - what a horrible combination - can they both lose? Crows vs North at AO R22 is another challenge for North. If they win all 4 we can miss out with 13 wins.

I read elsewhere on the site that Viney can only play midfield - that is ridiculous. He plays midfield because he's very, very good there but he'd also be very good as a small forward or small defender. For example I don't think Eddie or Laird would have been too happy last week if Jack had lined up on one of them. If he is permanently on management for this then there are alternatives. I know these roles have running involved with small forward defensive efforts a la ANB and small defenders coming up and back in the press, but if necessary there's a productive role there with less running than as a pure mid.

You want to sack someone different every week.