rpfc

Heat maps can be helpful IF you have the right parameters and of course the data. That paper is 5 years old so I wonder what of that they are doing regularly still. It alludes to clubs looking at leading patterns and understanding how to play two similar players in the same forwardline… So if you are focussing in say Ben Brown and how he leads in chains we score in - the parameters would need to allow you to weed out ‘defensive’ movement, slow ball movement for an ‘out’ kick on the boundary (or not depending on what you are trying to ascertain), and maybe times he isn’t ‘in the play’ and entirely ignored. Then you are left with a heat map of where he is moving (and how quickly) in successful scoring chains. From that paper it said that CD still didn’t have the GPS data from the clubs but that may have changed in 5 years.

I would argue that most people include these visualisations with no idea of it’s intended purpose or meaning. And it is visualising data. I organise the purchase of these tools for a big govt dept up here in Canberra so I know a little bit. I will say that some of the active visualisations in the cyber sec world are more impressive using Splunk and the like, but in my experience, I deal with a lot vendors who treat users like the shallow idiots that they are… Harsh but that’s how I have seen it.

Well most of it doesn’t work so… I am guessing you’re in the data world? Am I lifting the lid on your faux code and ****ty ‘insights?’ God I hate the data apparatchiks…

There would be rule around proximity to the others that would do that. The Spargo one you had above had two ‘hotspots’ of 2 touches nearer to each other, and the singular ones a bit further out from each other. Below is the ridiculous one from the weekend… Scott was hot everywhere…

I think he should take a year off…

That was Cairns. Please know The Dee-sasters.

Nah, there’s no brains like that. They wouldn’t even have the above data to plug in. Theres a laughable one last week with Scott at the Dogs last week where he has for ‘red hot’ spots for his 4 touches and the ‘effects’ on the highlighted area is purely based on where the other 3 ‘hot touches’ were. As a feature, it’s classic data visualisation technique that looks good but makes you dumber.

The ‘heat map’ is just where they got their disposals. We don’t have access to GPS data.

Hang on a second - we have the best ruck in the game (or so everyone tells me) - he can do his job and ruck for most of the game and then Jackson is most definitely susceptible to getting replaced by Weideman. LJ is a jet but he may not be the best option to win in 2021 - regardless of how the FD and Goodwin are using him and Gawn.

Yes, of course, Lever gets injured. Petracca’s form continues to nose dive, the forwardline remains schizophrenic and messy. These are reasons why we may not get to the mountain top. But they are all within our control, which is always the hardest for us to compute - the FD, the team, the leaders, Goodwin - they hold their fate in their own hands and that is a scary proposition for a group that’s always had good excuses.

Well, that was an interesting thread… Lot of demonlanders looking for an easy excuse to ‘excuse’ the team falling off a cliff 2004 style… No, the fixture is not an excuse, no COVID isn’t either, training loads 6 weeks ago are not either…

So sigh Shai Bolton instead of Weideman? Where do we fit his extra $400k in the cap? We have our stars - and 3 of them are in the midfield with Langdon as much of a star that a wing can be. Without knowing our cap position directly - one cannot assume we have much wriggle room for players like Bolton. To paraphrase Don Rumsfeld; unless we trade a star, we are going to war with the midfield we have.

Of course, but rjay my old electronic friend, 20-30% of the eligible country will refuse the jab even when offered (in the US the anti-vaxx movement has become a political identity tied to the right and they are struggling to get past 60% - even Fox News are retreating their messaging it’s that big of a problem) and that will mean sickness and death and i know we have to open up even with a quarter of the country willingly vulnerable. I am just a worried dad with a 16 month old that knows a disease will be out there that he has no protection against and is just a unfortunate chance encounter away from testing his fate against a disease ‘we’ could get rid of in a year but won’t because of hubris, disinformation, ignorance and malevolence. Sigh.

On your last point - we inevitably will.

That’s a detailed forecast! ‘There’s a high pressure system that will bring some rain, keep Ben Brown from kicking a goal, and ruin the marriage of one of my neighbours. Find out which one after the break’

And also, you know, getting a debilitating disease…

I picked a hell of a day to quit sniffing glue…

Few more. You don’t drop guns like him with the year he has had after a bad fortnight. We are only a few weeks out from when he graduated to taking 44% of the ruck. I think some of you are losing the forest for the trees here. Our role players are young and that needs to be noted when we place our expectations.

The Dogs rely on getter cleaner ‘extractions’ from stoppages than the opposition; they front run, run in packs, and share well. Our ‘shape’ is better in that we tend not to front run as much as they do. They want to be clean in close and if you can shut that off - that makes it a territory game that we are built to push back. But this is only a concern when your application and intensity is up and about. We have had it up for most of the year with some notable drops. In terms of the result in this game, who knows. We have 5 rounds to stay above PA or Bris and then the new season begins. That’s all I care right now. We know what this team can do. They need to give themselves the chance for a Melb qual and prelim and show it on the biggest of stages.

Perhaps your supposition is correct that LJ is playing behind the ball. But the above ‘heat maps’ are where he gets the ball, not where he runs to, so he just may be not getting the pill. On a larger note, Jackson is a point of difference and a future gun - we have to keep him long term to replace Gawn. But… if he isn’t doing what he needs to do then Weideman is an excellent replacement. He is a forward who rucks and is comfortable up the ground. His ruck work is also better than average. IMO LJ would have to have a pretty down few games to get to that point.

As @titan_uranusintimates - if some on here established the odds markets we’d be just ahead of Carlton…

That [censored] is one of the foundations of the gameplan. Coaches love that winning.

I appreciate this discussion, especially with regard to Gawn and our stoppages. I reject it is a noose around our neck, but it is not a point of difference that it should be with Gawn and those three at his feet. That is essentially the argument that Deanox and Lord Nev are having; the former correctly says if you look at the cumulative we are up their with the best rucks, and Lord Nev is saying that with the domination we should be far in front of the best rucks in the game. We have obviously downplayed stoppages under Goodwin and co in favour of pressuring the disposal in the stoppage, thinking that good teams and miss will read Gawn. That bet makes sense to me but when we are not pressuring maniacally it compounds the issue of not concentrating on utilising Gawns dominance more. Lastly, maybe we are not capable of leveraging his dominance. Our top end midfield is great but our 4th best mid doesn’t stack up. We don’t run deep.

Spargo didn’t make the distance on the ensuing kick. The contempt is mutual. At least Oliver would have got it over the line.