Gawndy the Great

Prediction: Preseason intensity will be the 2023 version of the loading thread.

Need all three involved in our rebound 50 game. Not only hitting targets but making quick decisions and cutting up teams with quick delivery i50 and isolating our forwards If we use the boundary like we did this year it will be a long year. We will inevitably turn it over but we need to take more risks.

The success of Gawndy will depend upon to a large extent on two factors: 1. How much we can use our ruck contests to advantage. We can win tap-outs but will these translate to centre clearances. History says not so much. 2. How effective we can use the secondary ruck. To me this is the big one. Whether it is setting up behind play or having an extra presence down forward. Whether its an defensive increase in intercepts or goals kicked. Anything > +1 goal differential will be success. Then there is the flip side of how teams plan around Gawndy and what they will try to do to take advantage of an extra big fella on the filed / in rotation.

It’s not rocket science right. Keep ‘em guessing. The moment we see the oppo setup for one side we kick to the other.

Adelaide already got Rankine, so doubt they’d load up on another high value small forward.

Freo didn’t get away with a bargain. We all have to take our demons glasses of. It was still under a IMV but not by a lot. LJ still is more upside than proven value. He had maybe 2-3 good games this year and 1 outstanding. That is what the pundits see and that is what Freo paid. LJs lack of professionalism probably cost is the difference in the end. Had he showed some real desire to get the best out of Freo , he would have. Kozzy on the other hand has shown his worth on far many more occasions and in NPV terms worth a hell lot more. Port have got nothing to trade atm but I know that doesn’t count for squat. Question is who do they trade out next year to get a top 10 pick. Freo at least had something to bargain with. Port have no 1st rounders and we ain’t doing a deal with a F1 as they’ll finish top 8. Hopefully we have some additional free cash from the new EBA that will kick in on 2024 that we can backload into his new contract offer. I suspect that once the increase in salary cap becomes clearer Kozzys’ management will know in real terms (not %) and they’ll make a decision soon after that.

Port traded in all of their chips to get JHF. They have no trade capital in R1 this year as of right now. They would need to move talent to get into Round 1 this year and they don’t have too many players they can afford to let go that would get them that. That’s if Kozzy decides to go.

Speed is predominately from ball movement - leg speed does factor too but nowhere near as much as we think. The main factors that contribute to fast ball movement are (as others have stated) kick to handball ratio - but its not that simple. You also need to look at what part of the field is used as well. The teams that looked lightening quick moved through the corridor - we hardly used the corridor, instead elected to play through the wings (kick to Gawn game-plan has to be scrapped). Mark and play on rates will also contribute. MFC would take a mark, stop, evaluate and kick to wing (exaggeration but you get the point). Teams that look quicker would usually mark, overlap handball, next kick and within 5 seconds the ball would have moved 50-80m. That is enough to go from D50 to F50. It is what Collingwood's do or die gameplan in 2022 was built on. High risk, high reward. it can break defensive and isolate forwards. My opinion is that the game will ultimately shift to this style - it contributes to high scoring and highly entertaining football. It is what the AFL wants at the end of the day.

I think Geelong will come off it a bit with the tougher draw, Collingwood will get a reality check that their do or die brand is just not sustainable and Sydney will struggle with expectation. Brisbane are the ones for mine that present the most upside but it will depend on how their forward line functions now without McStay - Daniher a year older. Not sure Hipwood is a focal point. Feels a bit like MFC 2022ish. Also cannot count out the Doggies, they have one of the best lists in the AFL with superstars all over the forward half of the ground.

I’m not so sure on this. Gameplay this year was to run the ball off half back and transition before the d50 could settle. Our f50 pressure and forward turnover has to be sorted out if we are going to have any success. Teams know they cannot allow us to setup our defence.

Max only went forward given we were missing a KPF. In 2021 he was more a kick behind play. LJ was largely ineffective when tearing down forward as well. With Grundy and our replenished/recovered KPF stocks I think we’ll be able to return to our 2021 setup, which was an impenetrable defence. Grundy obviously supersedes LJ and potentially a TMac/JVR/BBB KPF line. Hunter on the D- wing are the upgrades that will add further potency in attack. Let’s hope that we are fitter this year.

If we do move ahead with this, i assume Chandler is elevated into the starting 22 to rotate with Kozzy in the FP. What roles then exist for Sparrow and Harmes if Viney rotates through the middle. Cant see both of them playing the HF/Mid role. Brayshaw back to HB seems logical, with Hunter taking the defensive wing. Lucky we are going to have a 5th sub because one of Harmes, JJ, Sparrow, ANB was probably going to miss otherwise or become the medi-sub There will be so many players trying to break into the squad from Casey too- Tommo, J. Smith, Woey, Laurie, Bowey, JVR, Howes, Turner, Dunstan - hopefully we are a bit more proactive this season in bringing in players at various points to keep the team fresher than last year.

Its all about risk. The players and pick order for next year is murky at best, so some teams wouldn't want to take that gamble right now. But in 12 months time, you have a better gauge on what those 2 picks will get you and can make a better decision.

Just goes to show that Pick 13 and F1 for LJ was unders because we cant even get into the top 5 with two first rounders. I would hate to give up 3 first rounders for pick 4 and 22 unless Pick 4 snared us a KPP. Instead i would take what ever is available this year and in 2023, id package up our 2xF1 and our 2024 F1 to trade into top 2 of the super draft.

Imagine if the men’s AFL side had won it this year as well. Would have been a long while before any club could claim that trifecta. Heck, 2/3 is even tough.

That doesn’t compute. why would we want to go backwards to 19 with a F1 and 37. 37 and F2 I can understand. Am I missing something here?

I’m not a fan, but it is magnitudes better than what he has had going for the last 2 seasons.

Your old school, hard nose player that has to learn a bit of humility. Love the bloke , he’s a gun and let’s hope he has learned his lesson. hopefully it’s nothing but noticed he was in SE Asia with the GF while the majority of the team was at Nibblers wedding.

I’m of the same thought now - we never looked right all year. I suppose the upside is we still finished 2nd despite the clear fitness and injuries. Heres hoping for a better preseason and renewed vigour and focus for 2023.

Recently bumped into a colleague who is chummy with one of the board members. When he spoke with him post season he mentioned that the players were over confident but that’s it. Doesn’t explain the lack of fitness and fade outs though.

I’m pretty sure one of his boys was brawling with Nevs boy at the GF celebration at the G last year.

The 6 games investment maybe paid 10 fold if we have a father son/daughter nomination down the track.

So ultimately this means the Lions at the Gabba in GF if we both get through. Only real opponent that can cause an upset are the Crows but they have been pretty average this year bar flashes of brilliance.

Our drafting strategy for the next 2-3 years has to focus on the bookends & HF line. Our midfield crop (Lingers, Hunter, Viney, Brayshaw, Trac, Clay, Gawndy, with Harmes, JJ, Sparrow to compliment, Dunstan as depth and Taj, Howes next in line) is set for at least another 5 solid years and any players we recruit now into that role will find it difficult to break through and would spend excessive times in the VFL. Its a good problem i suppose having the midfield and follower lines locked . We need to use our strong draft hand next year to find our next KPF to complement JVR (who is still unproven). We will hopefully get a solid look at Turner this year and see if he'll be able to hold down a KPF role to cover May's retirement, but if we have any doubt then we look to recruit and there is the potential backfill for Petty if he is to move forward. Begs the question what we do this year. Ideally it would have been to land Cadman, but that is unlikely. A good kicker and playmaker that we can plonk onto HB or HF lines could be something we look at as we are most vulnerable there. Hunter somewhat solves that problem, but our F50 connection largely driven by a slower / higher turnover ball movement from HB is to be blame.

We are about 2 goals less per game than Geelong. Its not much in the end given our infamous 2nd half draw.