Watson11

Of the games Spargo didn’t play, 5 are against the bottom 6 and only 1 against a top 8 team. Of the games he played in, 4 were top 4, another 4 top 8, then also Geelong in Geelong. The record when he plays versus doesn’t is totally meaningless and tells us nothing.

All fair points but the zone or pressure debate to protect i50s is not mutually exclusive. To be a real threat you need to do both. Carlton are setting the benchmark in the last 5 or so games and Port and the Pies crumbled (we stood up pretty well). It’s so hard to play against. That we are still trying stuff at this stage of the season is not ideal. Kozzie played deeper after half time but it far from fixed the i50 pressure. In the 3rd qtr we gave up 2 goals from d50 where it was too easy. Both went straight down the other end for soft goals. It isn’t on Kozzie but all 6 forwards. We withstood their first qtr territory dominance, and really dominated them from then onwards. For the last 3 qtrs we had 45 i50s to 28 but got outscored and those soft goals we gave up were costly. They cost us just as much as the stoppage goals at the start of the last. Ironically, Carlton are a much more dangerous team without McKay. With him in this year, they were 16th for f50 tackles. In the last 5 weeks since he went down they are ranked #1. It’s a problem for Carlton as they are a poorer side with him in. It’s a problem for us as without a tackling tall like Petty we are a much poorer team (TMac/BB/Grundy are not the answer). For us to hold up through finals I personally think we need to accept what we have and a 2nd tall is not required, and focus on f50 pressure like Carlton have done recently, and Richmond did in 2017.

I don’t think that’s correct. Incorrect disposal is incorrect disposal. It’s penalised. If a player has prior opportunity and doesn’t dispose of the ball it’s also penalised. But if no prior they can just hold onto it.

The other thing on the @WheeloRatings stats that was surprising was the Blues scored more from their D50 than we usually concede (19 points versus 10 as our season average). Contrast this with the fact we only scored a single point from chains starting in our f50. Our F50 tackles were down again (only 8 v season average of 12). Considering we had 88 tackles that is ridiculously poor. We really need to sort this out as we are short a quality marking tall, and need to compensate with ridiculous forward 50 pressure (like Richmond did in 2017). If we don’t then we will get torched at some point in the finals (and at some point this week against the Hawks). I am worried that Goody thinks setting a zone to defend inside 50s is the better option.

You mean the other angle below. It’s inconclusive. And to be fair, if you touch a ball it’s instinctive to immediately put the hand that touched it up and tap it with the other hand. Marchbank instinctively put his right hand up and tapped it. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

It may have brushed his right hand, not left hand, and the vision is inconclusive and so it’s not a clear mistake.

Looked syndesmosis like. @Webber

Port are in a different position to pies. Re loading you can search google scholar on elite performance, loading and tapering, and it’s nonsense that loading needs to be mid season if you want to peak at finals. In AFL it’s about trying to get extra loads in whenever you can as every bit helps and obviously the bye is a good time to do it. But every other elite sport has peak loads 2-4 weeks before when you want to peak. As Macca said, the word was the crows did it late in season in 97 and dropped from equal 1st to 4th in their last 4 games but were primed for September. If any team is going to go all in on loading it’s the Pies right now. Whether that is the case and a reason for their drop only time will tell but it can’t be ruled out. As an aside I think the pies are vulnerable and have all season, but I just don’t think the hawks have exposed them any more than the hawks exposed us in 2021.

I may have missed the balanced discussion of Collingwood and loading and recent form. If it’s good to raising loading whenever we have a dip, then it’s relevant for the Pies. They effectively have had top 2 locked in, finals are still 5 weeks out, and it’s common knowledge that elite athletes peak loads/benefit are 4 weeks before an event. They are the best 4th qtr team this year but have not run out either of their last 2 games. If we were clear top 2 and having the same form line (like last year), demonland would be in the middle of a loading/anti-loading war.

They have conceded 63 inside 50s so far against a side that conceded 73 inside 50s to us. All you need to be worried about is us kicking 6.25.

And the same doctors care of Jay Schulz suddenly getting the scrutiny it needs. https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/south-australia/port-adelaide-former-player-jay-schulz-had-20-concussions-but-didnt-miss-a-game/news-story/44a9770a66a3db6e8ca360b109323c45?amp

No. He’s got Alzheimer’s and thinks it’s 2013!

Tomlinson wasn’t great but he wasn’t terrible and he will only get picked when the matchups make sense. Maybe Port and Pies. With May also struggling with mobility we can’t play both unless matchups allow. Richmond went small forward and Smith should have been picked from the start. Tomlinson rotated between Miller when on and Riewoldt when Miller was off. Miller was totally ineffective and got subbed for a small. Tomlinson got subbed shortly after Miller as we were too slow with the Richmond matchups.

According to Jonesy on the commentary the opposition players are enjoying having a dig at him about his cooking! It gets him fired up. Hope they keep doing it.

Mongrel Punt explained it perfectly 2 years ago. If McKay doesn’t kick goals he is a huge liability, and sometimes he’s a liability when he does kick goals. https://themongrelpunt.com/afl-season-2022/2022/04/14/the-2021-version-of-harry-mckay-wont-kick-the-blues-to-the-finals/

Is he a Collingwood supporter? He doesn’t seem to be aware that GMBH Stadium exists and that Geelong are likely to play there if they finish 5th.

I can dispute it. I don't agree with a lot of what David King says but agree with this "The most overrated stat and most overused stat in the history of any reporting regarding AFL footy is kicking efficiency.". The perception of Petracca and Oliver 's kicking is set by our forward setup and plan which is risk averse and static. Occasionally our forwards get on the move, but that's a rarity compared to Collingwood. We constantly either dump long or take risky 50m kicks over the heads of interceptors trying to hit someone standing still or running away from the ball. It looks terrible and gets intercepted a lot, but Stafford and Goody are the ones you should be critiquing. For Trac and Clarry the only fair comparison is to compare those kicks to everyone else trying the same kick. Liam Crowhurst is an analyst who did that. The graph below is from another thread but compares each Melbourne players kicks with every other kick of the same type (same position, same difficulty), and what the score outcome was. The Y axis is how difficult and risky the kick is. The x axis is the comparison of individual players against the AFL average. So our "ball butchers" all take kicks at the high end of the risk/reward spectrum (which I argue is due to our gameplan going i50). They all get better outcomes than average. Nick Daicos, who has unbelievable foot skills, sits right on the average for the types of kicks he tends to take (almost identical to Angus Brayshaw). Considering a lot of Daicos's work is in the back half that is fine. But when we are on the move and creating space i50, Trac and Clarry are fine and the butcher problem seems to disappear (2021 finals is a great example).

MaCrae has already proved he is better at making players perform and more tactically innovative than Buckley. And with the same list Buckley had got them from 17th to top 4 in no time. I don't think the Pies win the flag this year and expect us to dismantle them, but that won't change my opinion of MacRae. Don't get me started on how poor a coach Buckley is though. He inherited the best position imaginable (better than what Scott inherited at Geelong). Pies were the youngest ever premiers in 2010 (oldest player was 28). Lost only 3 games in 2011 (one was the GF). They should have contended for the next 6 years, but it went downhill and they underperformed 6 years in a row. Maybe unlucky to lose 2018 GF by a kick, but on the flipside very lucky to coach a team that gets a dream draw and could easily have finished outside the top 4 if they had to play Geelong in Geelong and we got to play Geelong only at the G! You could also argue he was lucky they made the GF in 2018 and can probably thank a very ordinary 7ft beanpole who fluked about 10 marks in 15 minutes in a prelim. He was not a good coach by any measure considering the list he inherited and the support and resources that club has.

There are only just over 20 coaches who got stuck on a single premiership in 125 years (and lots who won zilch including Northey and Daniher). That’s no disrespect to them, as premierships are really hard to win. But the great coaches consistently get the best out of their list and therefore the other 80% of premierships are won by multiple premiership coaches. Of the 20 coaches to win a single premiership, some are probably mediocre coaches who were a bit lucky. Worsfold did incredibly well in his first 6 years with a great list (a lot better w-l than Goody). But he could probably be judged as a mediocre coach as when that list went he got really average results for his last 9 years. So it’s over to Goody really. Win another flag and end the debate. If the second youngest premiership team ever never win another flag, then the debate as to whether Goody was a good coach or not will go on forever.

But we also made a tactical change after Oliver’s last game against Port. Despite wet conditions Port had +1 at most clearances between the arcs. Since then we have evened it up. Maybe because the coaches felt we had no chance without Oliver. I suspect this alone had more to do with our better clearance performance than anything else. I hope we don’t revert when Oliver returns.

To be fair there was one sensible comment. Miller and Jack to sacrifice themselves on May and Lever while we run, gun and lower our eyes entering 50. Only way to beat Melbourne without Lynch They did that in the first qtr on Anzac eve and tore us to shreds. But when we closed down space of their defenders and mids they were useless.

Premiers by ladder position (2000-22) 1st: 8 2nd: 7 3rd: 7 4th: 0 5th: 0 6th: 0 7th: 1 8th: 0

Agree totally re Rankine. He is an absolute gun and a good example of how tough the half forward role. For such a skilful player he has a Clanger every 4.5 disposals. For all the flak that ANB cops, he has a Clanger every 5.4 disposals.

Hopefully one of the learnings for Goody is that the zone doesn’t work when you don’t put pressure on the kickers (ie in our forward 50). We really need to stop falling back and relying on a zone to defend leads. If we do it in a prelim or gf against the pies then it will be gifting them a flag.

I agree. The other games against top 4 teams they are 2W -0L.