Engorged Onion

pies conversion a "disgrace" in near perfect conditions for a premiership favorite, 28% 🤷‍♂️

Staying at Crown tonight with my young one and just went to the food court. With the Collingwood, Dogs match, I’ve never been surrounded by so many dead set bogans. It was getting unruly in the public section!!

@Lucifers Hero - in all your trawling though supporters forums for other teams - do other forums discuss 'loading'/'high intensity blocks' etc...?

Correct 99* not out. I'll be there to farewell Jake and cheer on Taj - birth, family legacy, rebirth and death! It's all existential this week at Marvel 😇

Well, they got James to 150. Congrats and thank you.👏

Still the best team we have fielded in my lifetime, and people still get upset, looking purely at the W/L column. It's far more nuanced than that. We're not far off it at all. Imagined if we weren't conditioned to sensationalist media... 🤷‍♂️

That is a really salient point, that emotional posters either don't know, or choose to forget. The injury list is THE biggest predictor of premiership success. I also hope that all your follow up posts also take this into account... because all your previous certainly don't.

I'm attending my first Marvel Match...with my 7yo. Anyway, what I am looking forward to is BBB kicking 6 goals on his favourite deck. It's a lock.

it's just not good enough 🤷‍♂️

Apologies for starting a random thread so far out - any recommendations for a supporters hotel in Launceston for the North match?

They are some beautifully horrifying stats... imagine when we regress back to the mean 👌😇

Do you get ‘mongrel’ from the supermarket aisle! 💯

Seasons over ladies and gents, time to find a new forum to frequent 🙅‍♂️

I'm mostly interested in why people choose to dismiss this information as 'evidence' that we are genuine premiership contenders, and go with their emotional response on a week by week basis and contend that we are not a genuine team. Is it that the non believers see it as 19 relevant data points to fit a particular narrative? Statistics are cold emotionless bits of data, you get enough of these bits of data to form a coherent analysis of where we are at. The data (or is it data?) bodes well.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/why-a-forgotten-forward-can-be-the-missing-piece-to-melbourne-s-premiership-puzzle-20230629-p5dkew.html

Nah, soft as butter I was, just like my football. 🤷‍♂️😆

I want all players in long sleeves! My favourite style of playing the windswept grounds around Portland…

I'll add to that, that the coaches press conferences (Goodwin's, whoevers) are often really measured (some would say boring, some would say not enough fire and brimstone, and needs more words like disgraceful and pathetic) rather than reactionary. I'd imagine that if you are a coach, who has been in the AFL industry and immersed in statistics for the best part of 20 years, unlike supporters who have different levels of access, you're going to relate to the typically evocative win/loss binary ratio quite differently to the average punter. Who knows, you might even talk about "connection" or "process" in these press conferences, ... without telling the punters, 'Well actually we're hitting a range of metrics that we are genuinely satisfied in, considering the specific context about today's (win/loss) this will hold us in good stead for a tilt at the finals. I won't go into what those internal measures are, but I want you to know that our system is built around this.

My take is that the reason the switch flicking doesn't happen is because there are only small margins against each team. Have a look at most competition wide stats. The media language is a team is 1st or 18th on any given particular stat, which is voiced as an absolute. Typical supporters would assume that anything drifting south of 8th position (ladder?) would be problematic, but in reality it's such fine margins of small percentages from 1st to 15th typically. Though I assume explaining this to the average supporter, doesn't drive clicks. Jump on to @WheeloRatings and flick through any stat at random for team averages... ie: Possessions - St Kilda average 390 a match in 1st - Port Adelaide 338 in 18th (that's a difference of 15%) and no real baring on ladder position Disposal Efficiency - 1st to 18th 5.3% difference Clangers - 1st to 16th 51-60.5 a match Clearances 1st to 18th 43-33 average a match Shots at Goal 1st to 16th 30-23 average a match Accuracy for Goal 1st 52% and 18th 42% (Carlton) - Average is 48% The more I have looked at the stats this year, rather than going on the 'eye' test and listening to non informative commentating, the more I realise how genuinely tight the competition is and how this is not discussed in the media, to the detriment of supporters experiences. I have dropped my expectations for the MFC to dominate teams, let alone win matches that my brain says we 'should' on paper.

But there are numerous games a year where this happens... so it is representative.

Holy moly - I have never thought of it like that. Amazing❤️

dropping or resting? I guess we will never know. I'd assume he was rested as his form didn't warrant being omitted for form.

I wonder what could be influencing the 26.6% accuracy for the Swans on their home deck? 😇

2022 v2? @adonski This is a great conversation propped up against a bar with a beer in the hand. Do we agree that we played around 8 weeks worth of football with significant injuries in 2022, to go out in straight sets? If we don't, then we haven't even completed the end of 2023 and you're already assuming we will be significantly injured, and we probably need to walk away from the bar... If you do agree, then do we also agree that injuries have a significant baring on output and capacity to win? Or is it a view of 'one solider in, one solider out', and it doesn't matter?

Can you outline that for me - I don’t really pay attention to their specifics. 👍