titan_uranus

I’m far from sold that this is the right move. I think Oliver’s return made our mids look off last night as they adjusted but I can’t see how adding another small forward helps any issue we have. Particularly one like Spargo who doesn’t get much ball or hit the scoreboard much.

I don’t agree. I think he looked more of an asset forward. In the backline I just feel he gets lost and that impacts May and Lever’s willingness and ability to zone and cover. I think many call for him to be sub because he can cover for an injured forward or an injured defender. No one else on our list offers that flexibility. Given he had 5 touches in an entire game last night I’m not sure he’s shooting the lights out with full game time such that he necessarily deserves to hold his spot.

We haven’t started a game well for a month, IMO (when we jumped Brisbane). Led Adelaide but they had plenty of territory and shots. Trailed Richmond and were 20 down in the second. Trailed North and were 33 down in the second. Conceded 20 of the first 22 inside 50s to Carlton. Would dearly love a strong start next week as a response.

My bigger fear is missing top 4. I woke hoping my MFCSS would subside but it hasn’t. I’m genuinely concerned we’ll lose to Hawthorn next week and expose ourselves to needing to beat Sydney to avoid slipping out of the top 4 altogether. I think 4th is more likely than 3rd though.

On xScore we should have won, despite their early territory dominance. Also if I’m reading this correctly the QT margin should have been a few points higher than it was on xScore:

You’ve written this like the game played out all like the first quarter. As the game went on we got progressively better at breaking down their defensive wall and pressure. We ended up with more scoring shots, despite their early flood of territory. And in case you missed it, we were the thinnest of margins from winning the game. If the goal umpire had given a soft call of goal, would you still think the mantle had been passed? The game was a strongly contested one between two strongly contested sides. Carlton, as we discussed mid-week, is much better than many have thought. They can win it. But I don’t consider that game signals the end for us. It should, though, be a reminder that we can’t afford lapses (mid-game, or at selection - got to get this Petty-less forward line right ASAP, and I think I agree with you on Grundy).

Not to go all MFCSS on everyone here, but next week is a must-win. Carlton will beat GC. If we lose to Hawthorn, we will be playing Sydney in Sydney for a top 4 spot, as Carlton will pass us if we go 0-2 and they go 2-0. And Sydney is one of the only other sides in as good form as Carlton.

Jordon has to be dropped. A mile off it tonight, sadly. I’m very close to ruling a line through the Gawn/Grundy combo. Is it a coincidence that Gawn had his worst game since Grundy went out and we kicked a low score too? Smith should be the sub or a forward. Hibberd should be a defender or not playing (but not the sub). Major query on Salem but I think we back him to find his form.

It infuriates me that, IIRC, the ARC never appeared to run the side-on and front-on angles together at the same time. Had they done so they would have realised the ball had passed his hand before that moment when they look like they might be touching. Anyway, nothing we can do about it. Need to focus on what is in our control (structure, selection), not what is out of our control.

It 100% wasn’t touched. The angle which looks like his hand touches it is misleading because when you match it up with the side-on angle, the ball is past his hand. He didn’t touch it. It’s eminently arguable we’ve lost a game due to an egregious ARC error. It’s also eminently arguable that we lost because we weren’t good enough for long enough. Smashed at stoppages by a side missing three starting mids. 5 goals from 31 inside 50s in the second half. A number of complete passengers. It’s an easy conclusion to make after one game (and a loss to boot) but I don’t think Grundy forward is going to win us the flag. It just didn’t look right.

I'll fall off my chair if they lose to St Kilda or the Dogs at home. But if they lose even a single game, finals are highly likely over for them. 11.5 won't cut it. They have no choice but to go 2-0.

If Geelong go 2-0 from here they get to 12.5. That means the likes of GWS, St Kilda and the Dogs need to win 2 more games to stay in front of them. Carlton might only need 1 win if they can somehow get their percentage in front. So for St Kilda, factoring in a loss to Geelong, they have to beat Brisbane in Brisbane along with Richmond. Unlikely. That would see Geelong pass St Kilda, which right now is enough to make finals unless a side below them passes them. For sides below them, they all would have to go 3-0 to pass Geelong on 12.5. That requires Sydney to, for example, beat Adelaide in Adelaide and us. Or requires Adelaide to beat Brisbane in Brisbane and Sydney at home. Or requires Essendon to beat North, GWS (away) and Collingwood. So, in short, unless you think Geelong is going to lose to St Kilda or the Dogs at home, they're still odds on to make finals. Sadly.

I’ve noticed the words “contest and defence” have been said by multiple players this week. Was clearly a theme with Goodwin/the coaches.

Carlton had lost their last 4 and looked awful going into that game. Now that they’re good and it’s their home game, the crowd should be much bigger.

I think you mean you couldn’t care less. I’m not sure if ignoring the journos would have helped. After what he copped for the argument with the doctor, imagine if he did a “no comment” or acted like he didn’t want to talk. Just as bad, if not worse.

Except for when we lose, in which case it’s a land of lava, pain and where you can’t say anything positive lest you be called a “happy clapper”.

I agree with you that Carlton are being seriously underrated on here. But I don’t agree with everything in this post. St Kilda’s been out of form since the bye and they struggled to get separation against them for 2.5 quarters. The Saints’ defensive ranking stems from their pre-bye form (North scored 34 and the Dogs 41 which skews their points against total a bit too). Jack Steele’s 2023 form is a shadow of his 2020-22 form, too. And I don’t think Tom De Koning is “smashing” into anyone (North played two much bigger rucks this weekend and Gawn had no issues from a physicality perspective). Clearly though they play a brand of football that stacks up. They have talent on every line and as you say, McKay out has forced them to think about their forward line (a bit like Fristch out for us I think) and they’re finding new ways to score. My principal concern is their backline - we have to neutralise the air and without Petty, I fear that is going to be a big task.

My thoughts precisely. I saw the posts here and braced myself for some sort of bombshell. It was just standard Clayton Oliver. He’s flat when he talks and he’s clearly jaded by how many times he’s had to press for fitness that he’s almost joking about it.

Well we know it won’t be Brown or TMac replacing Petty. I think it’ll be Smith, with Hibberd or Tomlinson into the backline.

Close. Away games to GWS at Manuka: Western Bulldogs - 7 Melbourne - 4 Gold Coast - 4 Port Adelaide - 3 Fremantle - 3 Geelong - 3 St Kilda - 3 Brisbane - 2 Hawthorn - 1 North Melbourne - 1 Adelaide - 1 Richmond - 1 Carlton - 0 Collingwood - 0 Essendon - 0 Sydney - 0 West Coast - 0

Games at Blundstone since 2012 (when North started playing home games there): GWS - 6 Melbourne - 5 Adelaide - 3 St Kilda - 3 Sydney - 3 West Coast - 3 Port Adelaide - 3 Geelong - 2 Richmond - 2 Gold Coast - 1 (will be 2 by the end of this year) Hawthorn - 1 Brisbane - 1 Carlton - 1 Collingwood - 0 Essendon - 0 Fremantle - 0 Western Bulldogs - 0

Also gets us FTA exposure again. Sat arvo has become the AFL’s graveyard slot. Sunday arvo is now more prestigious. Collingwood played a stack of Sunday games earlier this year.

I think a comfortable Collingwood win is more likely than Geelong winning by 20.

I doubt we're going to go with JVR, Smith and one of Brown/Schache/Grundy. I don't think we've played three tall forwards since the GWS game (if you allow Fritsch to be the third, as we went in with him, Brown and Smith). We're 5-0 since then with one fewer tall, and scoring well. I doubt that's going to be changed now.

I think we have as tough a run home from here as any other side. Carlton and Sydney are two of the form teams of the competition right now. But I think "limping over the line" is a bit melodramatic, given that, in the last month: We rested our stars in the fourth quarter yesterday and appeared to ease up, with a six-day break coming We blew Richmond off the park in the fourth quarter last week We came from 5 goals down in the fourth quarter to beat Brisbane We were patchy yesterday for sure, but the previous three weeks were pretty solid hit outs and whilst we had issues in all three, I don't require us to be flawless to consider we have a chance to do serious damage in September. There isn't a flawless team out there right now.