titan_uranus

The 2021 slump spanned 7 weeks: Rounds 13-19. We lost to the Dogs (runner up), GWS (won a final) and Collingwood (second-bottom), drew with Hawthorn (14th) and beat Essendon (finalist) and Port (2nd in the H&A and made a prelim). The 2023 slump currently spans 7 weeks: Rounds 10-16. We have lost to Port Adelaide (2nd), Fremantle (not in the top 8), Geelong (not in the top 8) and GWS (not in the top 8), whilst beating Collingwood (1st) and Carlton (not in the top 8). W-L wise the only difference is the draw in 2021 as opposed to an extra loss in 2023. But the opponents in the 2021 slump were, on the whole, far stronger than this season's (unless two of Fremantle, Geelong and GWS make the finals - not out of the question but not likely), which gives me more cause for concern.

Don’t lump me in with others who perhaps approach the topic with “shallow” analysis. I’ve done my best to post my views in detail and with reference to the same material that is used to argue we must necessarily have engaged in a heavy loading phase over the last few weeks. It feels to me as though you are reasoning backwards. Your subsequent post to this one takes our last 5 scores and says “look at these low scores, that clearly shows we are fatigued”. There’s a link missing in between. As I’ve said before, I fully accept that we carefully structure our training loads week to week. What I don’t presently accept is that we’ve engaged in a loading block to such an extent that it significantly explains our poor performances of late. In your view, is it consistent with loading/fatigue as a significant factor that we dominated time in possession, CPs, clearances, time in forward half, forward half turnovers, and scoring shots? When I said “it’s not loading”, I meant it. Our biggest issue right now isn’t loading. It’s how we choose to structure and play.

Pickett's going nowhere. He's not playing as well as he can, but is also not playing as poorly as many are suggesting. The question on my mind is whether we can afford to drop ANB, ask others to cover his defensive aspect, and find a replacement who can perhaps hit the scoreboard or at least be more involved offensively. We also, IMO, need to move on from Harmes as our attempt to change up our midfield. That spot is ripe for someone else to be given a go. Time to see what Woewodin, or Howes, or Dunstan, or someone else from Casey, can offer. Neither Jordon nor Harmes have seized it this year. I also think the major mistake of dropping Tomlinson after KB to bring back an underdone Petty is now stifling us. We never should have done it and should have either brought Petty back via Casey or into the forward line. Now we're stuck with an in-form Tomlinson having nowhere to play and Petty squeezed out of the forward line given it makes no sense whatsoever to go back to Brown for one game in the wet and then drop him for a game under the roof at Marvel.

Not really on the players though. They were continuing to defend the way we set up to defend, by pressing up into the forward half. Absent a coaching directive, they weren't going to drop back into the D50 and have no influence unless GWS got the ball that deep. They were always going to sit high. IMO we press too high but once you accept that press, I think the blame for how sides score out the back is a coaching one, not a leadership or player one.

Not sure the final paragraph makes the argument you're trying to make. The WC-St Kilda stat says a lot more about those clubs' respective defences than their offences.

Bairstow was out. The English reaction is disgusting and so hypocritical given the Starc catch saga yesterday. But it is helping them try to win the match. They are heaping the pressure on us and Stokes has taken the liberty. Can't bowl Green if he's going to bowl like that, but we can't afford not to bowl Green without Lyon. We really needed Starc to hold that catch off Green's bowling to get rid of Stokes. We might not get another chance and if he keeps striking it like he has been, we are a bowler down and only going to offer up more bad balls. Truth be told, it's been an incredible performance for us to even have had this enormous lead. We've batted in the worst conditions and bowled in the best batting conditions, all whilst being a bowler down. England never should have fallen this far behind. But by virtue of how far behind they fell, if they do get up and win from here (they're nearly favourites right now given Stokes' form), they are going to ride the "injustice" of the Bairstow dismissal and the high of coming from behind all through the series. The Ashes is almost certainly going to be decided in the next 2 hours.

We can't keep playing forwards because they can defend, if they're not hitting the scoreboard enough: Smith, ANB, Chandler, Grundy, previously Spargo. We obviously need a mix, but JVR was bringing sufficient forward half defensive pressure but with the ability to be a forward. Smith brings forward pressure but with no real forward ability. JVR brings at least equal, if not better, structure than Smith too. With Fritsch out, we need natural forwards. At the moment it's Brown and Pickett. The rest are in there to be role players. That mix is wrong.

Yes and no. On expected scores we should have won today 74-42. Expected scores account for the difficulty of the shots we took. So it's not all because our shots were hard and we can't be expected to kick goals from them. AFAIK expected scores don't take into account pressure and fatigue, and I'm confident that because our forward half is always so congested we are taking our shots under more pressure and with greater fatigue (particularly from our half-forwards and mids who are being asked to cover heaps of ground). Plus there is the mental pressure - the more we are inaccurate, the more pressure there is each time.

They fell over the line today against one of the worst sides in the history of the sport (they lost Tim Kelly before the bounce, making them even worse). They are not a good side. That fixture on paper gives them the chance but they are not a good side. We cannot allow ourselves to think that it's OK to lose to St Kilda next week. It isn't. If we are serious about our season, next week is a must win (today was too, so we're 0-1 on that count).

It’s all a bit too soon still but as each week goes by I grow increasingly concerned that, without substantial change, we can’t take what we’re dominating (most things) and add what we lack (an ability to score). I think we have to accept doing worse in some areas (territory, stoppage) to try to improve our major weakness. Similarly, I also think we need to reflect on whether certain role players can be replaced with alternatives who replace the role player to enough of an extent, but then add something else. The player I’m thinking of here is ANB. Can we sacrifice some of his defence and pressure with someone who can add an ability to use the ball on offence and hurt our opponent more?

Why not? He’s not good enough.

To be clear, they won’t end our season. We will. We are beating ourselves. We are losing games to sides who don’t play well, who don’t play better for longer, but who take advantage of our mistakes. We are ending our own season by failing to fix fundamental problems.

Sounds like Fritsch will be out and no certainty to get Oliver back. JVR for Smith. A fresh face (Woey, Howes, whoever) for any of the underperforming players (ANB, Harmes, Chandler).

+70 disposals, +15 frees, +42 CPs, +19 clearances, +8 shots on goal, +27 inside 50s(!), but we lose. It’s not loading, it’s not personnel (albeit we’re missing two of our 5 best players), it’s some combination of coaching and skill. If we felt OK dropping Tomlinson after KB we should have dropped Smith after last week, instead of the better forward in JVR. We can’t make that mistake again. Brown’s a lumbering giant yet in the wet he had more touches than Smith and Melksham combined. This is the FD’s last chance to make changes to the 23, the way we try to score, and the way we play, because we cannot keep doing this.

+40 disposals, +12 free kicks, +31 CPs, +14 clearances, +21 inside 50s, +6 scoring shots, but losing.

I hate the Gameday threads because they’re so negative, but I feel at home with this one. 12 scoring shots to 9 and we’re down by 2 goals to a side currently sitting in the bottom 4. It’s just dispiriting.

+17 disposals, +14 CPs, +8 clearances, +13 free kicks, +10 inside 50s, +5 scoring shots, but scores level. I know that the underlying stats indicate we’re doing things right in the other two parts of the ground but if we don’t work out how to score from these stats soon, we never will (in 2023).

Fortunate sub option, Melksham replacing Fritsch. Big chance for Melksham to stake a claim for a spot in our forward line. Fingers crossed nothing serious for Fritsch. I don’t see us contending without him.

Salem up the ground isn’t a bad call but I want it to be Rivers instead. I like the idea of Salem staying at half back, we can’t strip all our good kicks out of there. With Bowey, Salem and McVee all in the side maybe this is the week we push Rivers further up.

I posted elsewhere that our top 4 chances could well be determined by the next 4 games (GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Adelaide), given the latter three are “8 point games” when it comes to the top 4. If we struggle through this month we are more likely than not to miss top 4.

Pretty bold thing to say given we just beat Collingwood.

The flatness of the ladder and the number of matches between rivals means I reckon there's a strong chance 12 wins will be enough for finals. Probably can write off everyone from Gold Coast down. Fremantle's draw is tough and their percentage is poor so it could well be down to 9 teams (Geelong and up).

The odds of us finishing top 2 are small enough to be disregarded. Neither Collingwood nor Port will lose enough games for us to pass them, and we won't run the table anyway. This is all about finishing 3rd or 4th and we have work to do to make that happen. Our season rests on us doing better from here than all bar one of Brisbane, the Dogs, Essendon, St Kilda, Adelaide and Geelong. After tomorrow, our next three are then St Kilda, Brisbane and Adelaide. It is, IMO, the biggest month of our season so far (including tomorrow). Finishing with Richmond, North, Carlton, Hawthorn and Sydney doesn't pose the same challenge or level of importance as these four games. 4-0 in the next month probably seals top 4, given the damage we get to do to our direct rivals.

We were on and ready for the fight in Round 4 vs West Coast, Round 6 vs Richmond, Round 7 vs North, Round 8 vs Gold Coast, Round 9 vs Hawthorn, Round 10 vs Port Adelaide... Or by "on and ready for the fight" do you mean "dominant and looking a million bucks"? The two are not the same.

I’m not a massive fan of dropping JVR. I don’t think he was playing poorly. If it’s a short term rest thing then I can accept that but it was described as an omission, not “managed”, so I’m not sure. I’m still not convinced by Smith as a forward so I guess JVR might get that spot back, assuming Brown gets a decent run at it.