titan_uranus

I'm not qualified to comment because I haven't seen the game, but my musings are: If JVR gets suspended, we probably have no choice. but to keep TMac irrespective of how bad he was We have to pick either Schache or Grundy to replace JVR if he gets suspended, or likely to replace TMac if JVR doesn't get suspended You'd think Jordon gets Brayshaw's spot I'm a long way from convinced that Laurie is good enough to be in the side and I don't think he makes a good sub. Perhaps Woey could add some pace to the side as the sub? We appear to have a problem with Salem's form but the only option we had to make a change there just got concussed and can't play next week

As to the Maynard incident - what @Binmans PA (and others) seem to have overlooked is that the table of offences/penalties only applies to reportable offences. Incidents don't get penalised if they're not considered unreasonable. A classic example is JVR on Ballard earlier this year. Plugging it into the table gets you a suspension, and indeed that's what the MRO initially did. But he got off because it was a football action gone wrong. The argument here is that Maynard was trying to block/smother, and it went wrong. I get that argument. I've watched the footage dozens of times though, and IMO he seems to turn into Brayshaw - this is common in players who try to block/smother on the ground, they will then look to check/block the run of the kicker to stop them linking up further. IMO, that's what Maynard does, but because of his momentum he does it with way, way, too much force. So IMO, I think it's a reportable offence, and then in the table it's straight to the tribunal (careless, high, severe). But I understand the argument against, which is what Collingwood will argue if it does go to the tribunal, and I don't think it's clear-cut either way.

I had the misfortune of having to travel during the game last night, so I had to follow online and read Demonland and media articles post-match to get a sense of what happened. There appear to me to have been two clear issues contributing to the loss - the start of the match, and our subsequent failure to capitalise on our contest/territory dominance. Both frustrate me. In the first quarter were were -9 for CPs, -2 for inside 50s and -5 for scoring shots. That's precisely how we don't want to play, but that's what we brought at the start. It put us 4 goals down and meant we had to play catch up football, and against probably the best side in the league at defending inside 50s, catch up football is tough. The forward half stuff is unfortunately not going to improve personnel-wise. It just hasn't been our year for this - the Petty and Melksham injuries, Fritsch missing a massive chunk, TMac's fitness, Brown's fitness, etc. Imagine if in the pre-season someone had suggested we'd line up on 7 September in a QF with a forward line featuring JVR, Smith, TMac, Laurie and Chandler. Goodwin and the coaches did well to make it work with Petty, and then after his injury too, but we just don't have the options to plumb down to Plan D or E or whatever we're up to now. Brayshaw's injury was hugely damaging by robbing our forward line of Trac. Sadly, at this stage, we cannot afford for Trac to not be a majority forward. Our contest and defence keeps us in every game (what's our combined losing margin across our 8 losses this year, 77 points or something?) but this muddled forward line makes hauling in elite sides (Collingwood is elite, whether you like it or not) very difficult, if not impossible.

I’m a unique blend of confident and nervous. I have confidence in our system, our form and our preparation. But I am extremely nervous because, as good as we are, Collingwood are good too and are better than many here give them credit for. And so much rides on this game - a home prelim against St Kilda or an interstate side, or a semi against Carl/Syd just for the right to get on a plane for an interstate prelim.

I’m a little uneasy about dropping the third tall defender for Hibberd but I can understand the reasoning. If our midfield and forward half defensive pressure is where we need it to be, we won’t have to worry about that third tall as much.

Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles

There’s a case to be made for all 8 teams this week, but I’m comfortable backing Brisbane, Carlton and GWS. Each is, simply, better than their opponent. I think we are better than Collingwood, but not by all that much.

Good post but there’s one further big difference. On KB they didn’t have De Goey, Sidebottom, Elliott, Howe or McStay.

I’ve felt that since he left us he’s had multiple digs at us. Really not a fan.

Yes, we’ve lost a bunch of times in the wet this year. But did we lose because of the wet? I’m not sure we did. The GWS game is a great example. Our game plan stood up all say despite the rain. It wasn’t the game plan that led to the loss, it was goal kicking. Our “contest and defence” was fine. We were a kick off beating Port in the rain and played one of our best quarters of the season when it poured. That loss didn’t at all suggest to me our game doesn’t work in the wet. We just got beat by a fop 4 side with an AA mid playing out of his skin.

Meanwhile take the Alice Springs game out and our average for the other 10 games was 48,786, above Essendon and just shy of Richmond.

I take the same view but for West Coast. Look at their average. Nearly filling out Optus Stadium each week in a season in which they produced the worst football since either us under Neeld or Fitzroy. Those figures are incredible.

I don’t share the angst that many others feel about our representation in the squad. In fact, I think it is a testament to how even we have been all year. Trac’s a walk up and Viney IMO can get a spot over Neale and other mids whose names seem to get them into the conversation before their form. There are still some pretty off putting selections. Gawn hasn’t been the best ruck this year but he’s been significantly better than Jackson. Cripps shouldn’t be in the squad. Taranto clearly should be. Also from Melbourne, most have suggested May is the one most stiff to miss out but I’d argue Rivers. If Mason Redman can get a squad spot Rivers can too.

I get the sentiment entirely but there is a huge amount to take out of that game. Brisbane and Port won home games. Carlton lost. Collingwood beat an on form bottom 3 side. But we went on the road to a finalist on a 6-game win streak, farewelling Buddy, and with a home final to play for. We could have given up or not cared. But we treated it like a dress rehearsal for finals, we found the football we all want to see us play, and with 1.5 quarters of it we turned a 3 goal deficit into a 4 goal win. IMO, the confidence and belief this game gives us is enormous. Losing Melksham is terrible news, don’t get me wrong, but players get injured at training so nothing’s guaranteed.

I’m confident we’ll be the Friday semi if we lose, and then the Fri prelim. Or the Sat prelim if we beat Collingwood.

The answer is because Channel 7 and the wider AFL media want Thursday night footy. They can’t put our game and the Carl v Syd game both on Saturday as both are at the G. They appear to have given us the Thursday to ensure the loser of our game has the extra day break into the semi. However, that didn’t happen last year. Last year we played Friday and the Bris v Rich EF was the Thursday. Brisbane got the extra day’s break into our semi. Arguably that was because travel was involved but IMO it’s the wrong result. We should be Friday night this year.

This might already have been said, but the AFL could avoid our game being on a Thursday night by not having a Thursday night and having a Sunday game instead. Play us on the Friday, Carl v Syd on the Saturday alongside Brisbane v Port, and St Kilda v GWS on the Sunday.

I'm sure it's already been said but this QF is possibly our make-or-break at the flag. Win it, we get a home prelim against Brisbane/Port/St Kilda/GWS. Lose it, we get Carlton/Sydney (likely Carlton) in a semi before having to travel to Brisbane/Port. The stakes are huge.

I'm away so haven't had the chance to see the Sydney game. The Melksham news is devastating on all fronts. Having cemented his spot and done so well this year, to miss out on the finals campaign will be heartbreaking for him. Meanwhile it throws a massive spanner in our forward line thoughts. Having him and Petty go down in the final month is just no good. I suspect it will be TMac who gets that spot. Fingers crossed whatever form he got today, and perhaps next week for Casey again, can translate into AFL level, because if we get the slow, early-2023 TMac, that won't work. I don't need to have seen the game today to know that we won't be dropping Turner for anyone except Tomlinson. We are not abandoning that plan now.

Resting is dangerous IMO. It will mean one game in 5 weeks if (big if) we win our QF - 5 weeks from the Hawthorn game to PF weekend and just the QF played. That’s too risky IMO.

Collingwood’s already lost 3 of their last 4. Can’t recall a premier losing 4 of their last 5 H&A games. They’ll be aiming to blow Essendon apart IMO. Like us, I imagine they will accept that the ladder takes care of itself.

I agree re consistency. It doesn’t help him, nor does it help our other forwards (who need to work together as a unit), or our mids (who need to work together with the forwards to ensure we don’t lose whatever gains we’ve made with our forward half efficiency) if he gets repeatedly swapped between back and forward. IMO Smith stays forward. Tomlinson or someone else plays that defensive role.

@WheeloRatings, what’s our W/L record when losing both CPs and clearances this year?

If the Dogs lose to Geelong, GWS will have qualified without needing to play. But there may still be something riding on the game - it's possible (but unlikely) Carlton will need to win for a home final (requires St Kilda to win and Sydney to beat us by enough to close the 4.5% gap). It's also possible that GWS will be playing for a home final (Sydney and St Kilda lose, then GWS needs to make up 3.3% on St Kilda). But mainly it will be for positioning, whether it's Carlton v GWS or Carlton v Sydney in the EFs.

They're playing for a home final though. A win allows them to pass St Kilda if they lose to Brisbane. A loss forces them to play St Kilda or Carlton in Melbourne; a win gives them the chance to host St Kilda or possibly GWS.