titan_uranus

Having posted the above last night, I've had some more random fixture musings as I contemplate whether we've had an easy fixture or not. Firstly, I looked at interstate games in the last four weeks of the season (just the 9 sides vying for finals): Brisbane - 2 GWS - 2 Melbourne - 2 Port Adelaide - 2 St Kilda - 1 Sydney - 1* Bulldogs - 1* Carlton - 1 Collingwood - 0 (*Sydney played a game at GWS and the Dogs play one in Geelong) Then I looked at interstate games in the first four weeks of the season: Brisbane - 2 GWS - 2 Melbourne - 2 Port Adelaide - 2 Sydney - 2 Carlton - 1 Collingwood - 1 St Kilda - 0 Bulldogs - 0 Which has us level on 4 with Brisbane, GWS and Port, playing half our first month and half our last month on the road. By comparison, St Kilda and Collingwood play all bar 1 (total) of their opening and closing months of the year on the road. As I said, just a random musing. There are heaps of ways to analyse the fixture and this is just one of them, but it's the sort of analysis that is done so poorly by the generally poor AFL media.

Theirs was significantly worse than ours. At least in ours there was an ARC review.

I'm not really arguing that we should be playing Grundy, but I do think there's more to the argument than you're suggesting here. As has been pointed out, only the North combo is a true dual-ruck combo. The other three have forwards moonlighting as second rucks, with only Daniher any better than van Rooyen. So yes, whilst Gawn looked amazing in that month, the only game he had to play against two rucks was against a side on a 17-game losing streak. It's possible, but by no means certain IMO, that we bring Grundy back if we play a side like Collingwood (if they have Cox alongside Cameron), or Carlton (if they continue to use PIttonet and De Koning).

This is all correct. Although it's fair to note Sydney kicked 0.1 in the last quarter. The odds of them finding a goal in the last minute were low. There's no doubt that if that had happened to us the overwhelming majority view on here would be that we were denied a win. You only have to look to last week.

Let’s focus on beating Hawthorn. Then I won’t give a rat’s tossbag about who is in or out for Sydney next week.

Have we though? Yes we had Hawthorn and North twice. But we also are on track to have three of the top 6 twice too (Brisbane, Carlton, Sydney). Fixture difficulty should also take into account short breaks, travel, venues, etc. We got Brisbane in Brisbane, Port in Adelaide, Sydney in Sydney, and Geelong in Geelong. I don’t know how that stacks up with other clubs but the analysis in the linked article is horrendously shallow.

Jesus if I were an Adelaide fan I’d be absolutely ropeable. That has cost them finals (likely, but not certainly), and unlike last week the system should have fixed it if it had been properly used.

This one is worse than ours: On (competent) ARC review the aligned angles show the ball clears the back of the post before it could possibly have touched it. Clears the padding, too.

Nope, not yet. If the Dogs beat WC and then Geelong, a Sydney loss to us will put them at risk of being passed by GWS who play after us. Sydney may be locked in by the time of our game if the Dogs have already lost to Geelong (or WC tomorrow…lol). But even if so, they will likely be playing for a home final.

So we are down to 9. Dogs already have percentage over GWS and will get more tomorrow vs WC, which will see them move to 8th and GWS 9th. A Carlton win seals finals for St Kilda, Sydney, and the Dogs (unless they lose so badly to Geelong that somehow they go below GWS on percentage). If GWS beat Carlton though, then any of St Kilda (v Brisbane, Sydney (v us) and the Dogs (v Geelong) can miss with a loss (although St Kilda would have to shed percentage). 6th also still up for grabs (5th too if Carlton lose).

A bit like us last week. Can very well argue that’s cost Adelaide the game, and finals. On what I’ve seen online so far, that didn’t hit the post. But can also argue they lost it themselves. 4.8 in the last quarter to 0.1. And perhaps if they hadn’t fallen 44 down early.

If St Kilda and Sydney hold on, the 8 will nearly be set. Once the Dogs belt West Coast tomorrow, GWS will be percentage out and 2 points behind Sydney. A Sydney win vs us next week guarantees the Swans make it. A loss to us opens the door for GWS if they can beat Carlton. The Dogs will need to beat Geelong to make it too. Other than positioning, only other point of note is whether we stay in the top 4 or slide out…

If Geelong lose, next week will be only the second meaningless game they have played since 2006 (the last game of 20-5, when they were out of finals contention, is the only other one). Remarkable. Would love to see it happen.

Both Collingwood and Brisbane lost to Hawthorn. They don’t deserve it either?

Cool. Hardly radical thinking though. Everyone expected Carlton to beat Gold Coas

Hawthorn won’t fold the way GC did, either. If we fall 40 down, all hell is going to break loose. A good start tomorrow will do wonders for our hearts.

Very clear equation here. Win tomorrow, or else send Demonland MFCSS through the roof.

That was Carlton’s banana peel. They will blow GWS off the park now that they have the confidence and the lock into finals. Do not count your chickens. We must beat Hawthorn tomorrow.

At least when we fell 40 points down late in 2021 it was to a preliminary finalist, not a currently bottom 4 side!

Sadly, I feel like my reserved view on the game was the right call. Carlton won’t lose this from here.

Logically, yes. I’ll still wait a bit longer before I feel like they aren’t capable of pulling it back.

We were 33 down to North two weeks ago. Don’t count chickens etc etc.

Yes. They have to lose twice. Then requires some results to be precise because the chasing pack play each other a bit. Easiest option is for GWS to beat Essendon, St Kilda to win once, Dogs to win both games (ie beat Geelong next week), and then Sydney wins twice or wins once but makes up the percentage (about 5%).

Correct. I muddled up my points - 0-2 is 4th so long as Carlton lose a game. 5th if they win both.

In H&A we wear the clash against all three of our top 4 opponents. In a QF, or in a PF if we lose the QF, we will probably have to wear the clash. However, I don’t know if finals permit tweaks to the rules, because IMO we don’t clash with Collingwood (we didn’t wear a clash jumper against them until 2019 IIRC) and we shouldn’t clash with Brisbane (Carlton, Essendon and Adelaide don’t have to wear their clash jumpers against them). The GF gets more confusing. If we make it against a side who finished above us on the ladder you’d expect the same clash rules to apply but the rules have been confusing over the years.