titan_uranus

Let’s focus on beating Hawthorn. Then I won’t give a rat’s tossbag about who is in or out for Sydney next week.

Have we though? Yes we had Hawthorn and North twice. But we also are on track to have three of the top 6 twice too (Brisbane, Carlton, Sydney). Fixture difficulty should also take into account short breaks, travel, venues, etc. We got Brisbane in Brisbane, Port in Adelaide, Sydney in Sydney, and Geelong in Geelong. I don’t know how that stacks up with other clubs but the analysis in the linked article is horrendously shallow.

Jesus if I were an Adelaide fan I’d be absolutely ropeable. That has cost them finals (likely, but not certainly), and unlike last week the system should have fixed it if it had been properly used.

This one is worse than ours: On (competent) ARC review the aligned angles show the ball clears the back of the post before it could possibly have touched it. Clears the padding, too.

Nope, not yet. If the Dogs beat WC and then Geelong, a Sydney loss to us will put them at risk of being passed by GWS who play after us. Sydney may be locked in by the time of our game if the Dogs have already lost to Geelong (or WC tomorrow…lol). But even if so, they will likely be playing for a home final.

So we are down to 9. Dogs already have percentage over GWS and will get more tomorrow vs WC, which will see them move to 8th and GWS 9th. A Carlton win seals finals for St Kilda, Sydney, and the Dogs (unless they lose so badly to Geelong that somehow they go below GWS on percentage). If GWS beat Carlton though, then any of St Kilda (v Brisbane, Sydney (v us) and the Dogs (v Geelong) can miss with a loss (although St Kilda would have to shed percentage). 6th also still up for grabs (5th too if Carlton lose).

A bit like us last week. Can very well argue that’s cost Adelaide the game, and finals. On what I’ve seen online so far, that didn’t hit the post. But can also argue they lost it themselves. 4.8 in the last quarter to 0.1. And perhaps if they hadn’t fallen 44 down early.

If St Kilda and Sydney hold on, the 8 will nearly be set. Once the Dogs belt West Coast tomorrow, GWS will be percentage out and 2 points behind Sydney. A Sydney win vs us next week guarantees the Swans make it. A loss to us opens the door for GWS if they can beat Carlton. The Dogs will need to beat Geelong to make it too. Other than positioning, only other point of note is whether we stay in the top 4 or slide out…

If Geelong lose, next week will be only the second meaningless game they have played since 2006 (the last game of 20-5, when they were out of finals contention, is the only other one). Remarkable. Would love to see it happen.

Both Collingwood and Brisbane lost to Hawthorn. They don’t deserve it either?

Cool. Hardly radical thinking though. Everyone expected Carlton to beat Gold Coas

Hawthorn won’t fold the way GC did, either. If we fall 40 down, all hell is going to break loose. A good start tomorrow will do wonders for our hearts.

Very clear equation here. Win tomorrow, or else send Demonland MFCSS through the roof.

That was Carlton’s banana peel. They will blow GWS off the park now that they have the confidence and the lock into finals. Do not count your chickens. We must beat Hawthorn tomorrow.

At least when we fell 40 points down late in 2021 it was to a preliminary finalist, not a currently bottom 4 side!

Sadly, I feel like my reserved view on the game was the right call. Carlton won’t lose this from here.

Logically, yes. I’ll still wait a bit longer before I feel like they aren’t capable of pulling it back.

We were 33 down to North two weeks ago. Don’t count chickens etc etc.

Yes. They have to lose twice. Then requires some results to be precise because the chasing pack play each other a bit. Easiest option is for GWS to beat Essendon, St Kilda to win once, Dogs to win both games (ie beat Geelong next week), and then Sydney wins twice or wins once but makes up the percentage (about 5%).

Correct. I muddled up my points - 0-2 is 4th so long as Carlton lose a game. 5th if they win both.

In H&A we wear the clash against all three of our top 4 opponents. In a QF, or in a PF if we lose the QF, we will probably have to wear the clash. However, I don’t know if finals permit tweaks to the rules, because IMO we don’t clash with Collingwood (we didn’t wear a clash jumper against them until 2019 IIRC) and we shouldn’t clash with Brisbane (Carlton, Essendon and Adelaide don’t have to wear their clash jumpers against them). The GF gets more confusing. If we make it against a side who finished above us on the ladder you’d expect the same clash rules to apply but the rules have been confusing over the years.

So, as it stands with the Brisbane win over Collingwood: Collingwood still seal 1st with a win over Essendon next week If Collingwood loses to Essendon, a Brisbane win over St Kilda likely (subject to percentage - they're currently even on 123.2%) sees them finish 1st We can only finish 2nd now if Brisbane loses to St Kilda We will likely finish 3rd if we go 2-0 and Port goes 1-1, or If we go 1-1 and Port goes 0-2, or if we go 0-2 and Carlton loses at least once Given the Round 24 fixture, we will know at the time the ball is bounced whether we can finish 3rd or not (if Port win this week and have already won next week, we will know we can't move up). We will also know whether Brisbane has passed Collingwood. If we lose to Hawthorn and Carlton beats Gold Coast however, we will not know if we are locked for top 4 because Carlton plays after us.

That may well be the end of Gawndy. If we win the flag this year no one will care. If we don't win it, there will be so much said and written about how much time we put into Gawndy when it didn't work. That's all for another time. For now, I think the Tomlinson-Smith-Grundy shuffle is the right call. I think dropping Jordon was the right call (although is he really the best option for sub?). But I'm not at all sure Laurie is the right call for that spot. Hope he proves me flatly wrong.

Very interested to see if Grundy holds his spot. All signs point to him being dropped. If that happens, hard to see him getting back again.

It's still very unlikely. Only St Kilda and Sydney can pass Carlton with one win (and even then, Sydney has to make up 4.7%). Everyone else has to win out to pass them. But the Dogs play Geelong in the final round, and GWS and Essendon (two sides who can do it) play each other this round, eliminating one of them this week. So for Carlton to miss, GWS has to beat Essendon this week (unless you think Essendon will beat Collingwood in Round 24), and Sydney has to beat Adelaide (unless you are keen for them to beat us). Then, either Geelong wins out and St Kilda beats Brisbane in Brisbane, or Geelong loses both games and the Dogs beat West Coast. Of course, Carlton would have to lose both games too. Which I just do not see happening. I think it's far more likely GC have packed it in for the year and Carlton cruise to a comfortable 4-6 goal win.