titan_uranus

I’ve reflected on this a lot since Thursday. My position is he should be suspended. Don’t focus on the split second he’s in the air, he made a decision, many seconds before, to run full pelt at Brayshaw and to jump straight at him. The AFL’s position should be “sure, you can do that, but you can’t do it in a way which exposes your opponent to a head injury”. The same principle as a tackle. Don’t worry about Maynard’s intent. Don’t worry about corruption or the MRO or even that it’s a final. Just focus on the action - it’s recklessness in the purest sense and should be met with suspension.

It’s not the pressure that gets me, it’s the contest in the first quarter. Our “one wood”, as they say. We were -9 in CPs in the first quarter. Our worst quarter for CPs since the second quarter in Round 8 vs Gold Coast. That cannot happen again this week.

Agree entirely.

I don't for a second believe we can't beat Brisbane in the prelim. It's clearly a much harder path to the GF than a home prelim against Port/GWS, and for that reason I'm of the view the loss to Collingwood renders our flag chance much, much lower than they'd be if we'd won, but I don't accept that Brisbane belting Port means they can't be beaten. If we beat Carlton, we'll go to Brisbane with all the pressure on them. The last time they hosted a prelim in similar circumstances was 2020, and they choked and lost to Geelong. This is their 5th-straight deep run into September and they are yet to make a Grand Final, let alone win a flag. We'll be playing as the clear underdog for one of the rare occasions in the last three seasons and I like it like that. But right now I don't care about Brisbane, I care about Carlton.

It's pretty unfair. If Port wins next week, they'll be the higher ranked SF winner whether we or Carlton win, yet we/Carlton will get the "better" break into our prelim than they will.

Equally importantly, we kicked 7.11 and lost (more scoring shots than our opponent), Sydney kicked 9.14 and lost (more scoring shots than their opponent), and Port kicked 1.4 in the first quarter when they could have applied a bit more scoreboard pressure to Brisbane, and then lost.

64 inside 50s against an already weak defence which then suffered a key injury (McKenzie) and then another injury, rendering them a player down for a half - funnily enough, the half in which Brisbane pulled away. Compared with our 69 inside 50s against an elite defence. Two totally different games. Not exactly a like-for-like comparison.

We weren't favourites, Collingwood were. Like almost everyone, I also said pre-game that our flag chances hinged on the QF, and our path to winning it now is significantly more difficult than a home prelim against Port/GWS. So in that regard, I agree, I think the loss is significantly destructive for our season. But you are on a doom spiral. For the past fortnight you were riding high, telling us how you couldn't see how we could lose. Now, after a loss, you're posting about back-to-back straight sets exits, failures of two seasons, chokes and you're now venturing into diminishing our flag because of "rent-a-crowds". Let's at least see what happens against Carlton first.

It would be fairer for everyone for Brisbane v Carlton/us to be the Friday night (allows a 7-day break for us/Carlton) and Collingwood v Port/GWS to be the Saturday twilight (allows a 7-day break for Port/GWS and as a twilight game allows Port/GWS to get home before the end of the day if they win to prepare for the GF). Collingwood will draw 90,000+ to their prelim and a massive TV audience regardless of timeslot.

Collingwood in 2018 lost their QF, but won through to the GF and were in front with a minute to go. Geelong in 2020 lost their QF, but won through to the GF and were in front in the third quarter. Sydney in 2016 lost their QF, but won through to the GF and were 1 point down with 10 minutes to go. No, none of those sides won the flag, but they all got close enough that it's not in my view impossible (adding in the two Dogs runs from 7th to the GF, and of course the five premiers who lost their QF).

Anyone else see a few similarities between 2018 Melbourne and 2023 Carlton? In 2018 we were coming off a year in which we choked at the end of the H&A season to miss finals by a bee's proverbial. We ended up finishing 5th, ending a 12-year finals drought. We drew a modern-day finals stalwart (Geelong) in our EF, with a crowd over 90,000 predominantly in our favour. We started well, got a healthy lead, then got nervous as they closed the gap before we settled and won. Our SF opponent was a recent premier and, playing with little to lose and heaps of freedom, we knocked them out in straight sets. In 2023 Carlton were coming off a year in which they choked at the end of the H&A season to miss finals by a bee's proverbial. They ended up finishing 5th, ending a 10-year finals drought. They drew a modern-day finals stalwart (Sydney) in their EF, with a crowd over 90,000 predominantly in their favour. They started well, got a healthy lead, then got nervous as they closed the gap before they settled and won. Their SF opponent is a recent premier and I expect they will approach next week with little to lose and heaps of freedom...

No one could see GWS beating Collingwood in the 2019 prelim, after Collingwood had knocked off Geelong in the QF and GWS had finished 6th.

Brisbane lost in straight sets in 2019, lost a home prelim in 2020 in a year in which they didn't have to leave their home state, and then went out in straight sets in 2021. Geelong made top 4 how many times from 2012-2021. made how many prelims, but failed to win a flag? If we do lose next week, at least we can look back on a three-year period of top 4 finishes and see a flag for our efforts. In an earlier post in this thread you said we'd been gifted a run to the GF. Now you're saying we had the hard road and we should have finished 3rd instead. Which one is it? They can't both be true. You have reached full praha doom spiral, again.

"Bog ordinary" list? They have N Daicos, J Daicos, Moore, De Goey, Quaynor, Howe, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Elliot, Crisp, Adams and Mitchell. The first three were All Australian this year. The next two were in the squad. You're not the only one guilty of this as it's rampant on Demonland - hyping up our list and downplaying those of our opponents to strengthen your argument that our 2023 season (and 2022) is nothing short of a disaster. Collingwood's list compares favourably to ours. So does Brisbane's. And Port's. And Carlton's. We aren't far enough in front of these sides for it to be "unbelievable" that two of them might play in this year's GF instead of us.

I'm not qualified to comment because I haven't seen the game, but my musings are: If JVR gets suspended, we probably have no choice. but to keep TMac irrespective of how bad he was We have to pick either Schache or Grundy to replace JVR if he gets suspended, or likely to replace TMac if JVR doesn't get suspended You'd think Jordon gets Brayshaw's spot I'm a long way from convinced that Laurie is good enough to be in the side and I don't think he makes a good sub. Perhaps Woey could add some pace to the side as the sub? We appear to have a problem with Salem's form but the only option we had to make a change there just got concussed and can't play next week

As to the Maynard incident - what @Binmans PA (and others) seem to have overlooked is that the table of offences/penalties only applies to reportable offences. Incidents don't get penalised if they're not considered unreasonable. A classic example is JVR on Ballard earlier this year. Plugging it into the table gets you a suspension, and indeed that's what the MRO initially did. But he got off because it was a football action gone wrong. The argument here is that Maynard was trying to block/smother, and it went wrong. I get that argument. I've watched the footage dozens of times though, and IMO he seems to turn into Brayshaw - this is common in players who try to block/smother on the ground, they will then look to check/block the run of the kicker to stop them linking up further. IMO, that's what Maynard does, but because of his momentum he does it with way, way, too much force. So IMO, I think it's a reportable offence, and then in the table it's straight to the tribunal (careless, high, severe). But I understand the argument against, which is what Collingwood will argue if it does go to the tribunal, and I don't think it's clear-cut either way.

I had the misfortune of having to travel during the game last night, so I had to follow online and read Demonland and media articles post-match to get a sense of what happened. There appear to me to have been two clear issues contributing to the loss - the start of the match, and our subsequent failure to capitalise on our contest/territory dominance. Both frustrate me. In the first quarter were were -9 for CPs, -2 for inside 50s and -5 for scoring shots. That's precisely how we don't want to play, but that's what we brought at the start. It put us 4 goals down and meant we had to play catch up football, and against probably the best side in the league at defending inside 50s, catch up football is tough. The forward half stuff is unfortunately not going to improve personnel-wise. It just hasn't been our year for this - the Petty and Melksham injuries, Fritsch missing a massive chunk, TMac's fitness, Brown's fitness, etc. Imagine if in the pre-season someone had suggested we'd line up on 7 September in a QF with a forward line featuring JVR, Smith, TMac, Laurie and Chandler. Goodwin and the coaches did well to make it work with Petty, and then after his injury too, but we just don't have the options to plumb down to Plan D or E or whatever we're up to now. Brayshaw's injury was hugely damaging by robbing our forward line of Trac. Sadly, at this stage, we cannot afford for Trac to not be a majority forward. Our contest and defence keeps us in every game (what's our combined losing margin across our 8 losses this year, 77 points or something?) but this muddled forward line makes hauling in elite sides (Collingwood is elite, whether you like it or not) very difficult, if not impossible.

I’m a unique blend of confident and nervous. I have confidence in our system, our form and our preparation. But I am extremely nervous because, as good as we are, Collingwood are good too and are better than many here give them credit for. And so much rides on this game - a home prelim against St Kilda or an interstate side, or a semi against Carl/Syd just for the right to get on a plane for an interstate prelim.

I’m a little uneasy about dropping the third tall defender for Hibberd but I can understand the reasoning. If our midfield and forward half defensive pressure is where we need it to be, we won’t have to worry about that third tall as much.

Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles

There’s a case to be made for all 8 teams this week, but I’m comfortable backing Brisbane, Carlton and GWS. Each is, simply, better than their opponent. I think we are better than Collingwood, but not by all that much.

Good post but there’s one further big difference. On KB they didn’t have De Goey, Sidebottom, Elliott, Howe or McStay.

I’ve felt that since he left us he’s had multiple digs at us. Really not a fan.

Yes, we’ve lost a bunch of times in the wet this year. But did we lose because of the wet? I’m not sure we did. The GWS game is a great example. Our game plan stood up all say despite the rain. It wasn’t the game plan that led to the loss, it was goal kicking. Our “contest and defence” was fine. We were a kick off beating Port in the rain and played one of our best quarters of the season when it poured. That loss didn’t at all suggest to me our game doesn’t work in the wet. We just got beat by a fop 4 side with an AA mid playing out of his skin.

Meanwhile take the Alice Springs game out and our average for the other 10 games was 48,786, above Essendon and just shy of Richmond.