titan_uranus

Yep. The game would have had a very different feel if we'd kicked 4.1 instead of 1.4 in the first quarter. We haven't kicked more goals than behinds since the Brisbane game, and we've kicked more behinds than goals every game since the bye. It's the single biggest problem we have right now and it's costing us premiership points and may well see us slip out of the top 4.

Gawn had 16 (from 56, so 28.6%) English had 3 from 14 (21.4%). Jackson 3, McDonald 2.

6 - Oliver 5 - May 4 - Lever 3 - Petracca 2 - Viney 1 - Hunt

In: Melksham, Sparrow Out: Harmes, Jordon Harmes is killing us in the middle. I'm inclined to try Melksham to find out, now, if he can help improve our flailing forward half game. Jordon's having less impact by the week. Sparrow deserves another go. I'm fed up with ANB's mistakes but he's at least pressuring. Spargo's better in the forward half but not getting involved enough. A change could be made there, but it's not like we have amazing talent ready to go (Bedford? Chandler?). Jackson's also struggling. If we're going to drop him it has to be for Weideman or Daw or someone who can ruck for significant periods of the game. We can't put TMac or Brown in the ruck and we can't go back to rucking Gawn for 95% of games. Yes but 8 clangers (our most) and 7 turnovers (our second most), with only 331 metres gained (7th most for us) and only 4 score involvemetns. He also fumbles more than most. I love his defensive work and I'm sure the FD does too, but he's not helping our forward half game at a time when we really need to focus on our forward half game.

As usual, there are some wildly big statements in here. This game was so much more even than this thread or the 20-point margin suggest. But yet again we lose because we miss shots on goal. The impact of those misses cannot be understated. Doing all the hard work up the ground but failing to put any scoreboard pressure on our opponent keeps our opponent in the game and makes our job psychologically harder. Brown's two set shot misses plus a third out on the full, Pickett's missed snap in the first quarter, Viney missing from the goalsquare, Petracca failing to score from three different shots. Then after we'd kicked the two early goals in the third, Pickett gets the ball, has McDonald in a heap of space, but misses. Later, in the fourth, we're back to 4 points and a kick goes to the goalsquare but over Jordon's head. Small things but in a game that was largely even, those moments lost it for us. I'm sure ANB's pressure acts were up there but he is reverting to pre-2021 momentum-killing football. He fumbles and get smothered far too much. If Harmes isn't tagging someone out of a game he's useless right now. We can do better with his spot in the side. Jordon and Jackson both really struggled tonight too. A few headaches again at selection. May and Lever once again fantastic, Oliver's first half was incredible, Petraccca did a lot right outside of the missed shots, Pickett worked his way into it, and I thought Viney made a hell of a lot of Demonlanders look silly. A loss like this isn't anything to be too upset about. Our top 4 spot is in jeopardy not because of tonight, but because of the Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS and Hawthorn games. Still need two wins minimum from the last four to make the top 4, and possibly need a third. And a final note: the umpiring was unbelievably Dogs-biased. Tackles on the shoulder were called high for them but play on for us, they were throwing it out of tackles, and don't get me started on the HTB call on Brayshaw right before half time. Just could not get any momentum when 50/50 calls were going against us at every turn. Genuinely terrible and it's not sour grapes to note how bad it was.

The GC result is pleasing but scary at the same time. Pleasing if they beat Brisbane, which helps us. Scary as we have to play them next week.

I maintain that it's negligible, but the more important point is that it's not a major (or indeed big) difference. Goal accuracy (and efficiency forward of centre in general) is the main reason our form appears worse now than it was earlier in the season.

We're top of the ladder. We've been top of the ladder for 10 rounds, in the top 2 for 15 rounds, and in the top 4 for the entire season. We're 9-0 against the top 11. Two weeks ago we comprehensively outplayed the side sitting 4th on their home deck with a vocal opposition crowd. But in your view we've never been a legitimate contender? It's 3 from 6, and a 3-1-2 record overall. It will be 2 from our last 6 if we lose tonight, though.

There's no way they're tanking. For one, they're not going to slide lower than one more spot on the ladder. So it's a one pick benefit. For another, they were still, going into this week, very much in the finals race. If the favourites win this weekend Carlton would, with a win, end up one game out of the 8.

Huge round for us. If we lose and Brisbane and Sydney both win, we'll be 1.5 games safe inside the 8 with 4 to come. Puts our top 4 spot in the most jeopardy it's been for the entire season. But of course, if we win and Brisbane and Sydney both lose, we'll be 3.5 games safe inside the 8 with 4 to come, which means we'd only have to win one more game for the rest of the season to lock in the top 4.

There are two arguments peddled by the protesters and those who think like them, when arguing against lockdowns, that make my blood boil. The first is that we have had very few deaths in Australia from COVID, and/or that the death rate from COVID is "low". That argument either ignores, or fails to contemplate, that the death rate in Australia is low because of the public health measures that have been implemented since March 2020, predominantly the use of lockdowns and mandatory mask wearing. In other words, if we did what the protesters wanted, not only would the total number of deaths be higher, but the rate of death would also be higher, because we'd have more cases needing ICU/ventilation and fewer health resources to treat them. The second argument is drawing comparisons between places like the UK or US right now with Australia right now (e.g. people saying crowds are allowed at the Euros but I can't leave my house). That argument either ignores, or fails to even think about, the wildly differing vaccination rates in the UK/US compared to Australia.

Do you think that because the Dogs have been scoring one goal per game more than us, that the scoring difference between the sides is major? It's mainly accuracy at any rate, given it's an 8 scoring shot difference and all 8 shots were goals.

It's less than 7 days since we drew with the worst Hawthorn side they've fielded for 15 years...

Agree. If it happens, will just round off what has been an unbelievably bad financial result from this year's fixture.

Yep. 2018 Melksham would be playing for us right now. Unfortunately it seems we're stuck with 2019-20 Melksham, which isn't anywhere near as enticing. I don't like the idea of putting TMac in the ruck. He's neither a ruckman nor a clearance midfielder, and whilst he does get plenty of ball between the arcs, I feel like we'd be one down in stoppages every time he's the ruckman: I don't feel that way at all with Jackson (and obviously also with Gawn). It's not the end of the world to have to use Weid or TMac in the ruck: if Jackson were injured, that's what we'd do you'd think. But with Jackson available I think the structural benefit he brings and the relief it gives Gawn outweigh his current poor form in the forward line.

Melksham (at least 2018 Melksham) isn't a bad idea given our forward 50 connection, but I see two issues with him replacing Jackson: Who's the second ruck? Can we afford to send TMac into the ruck, leaving us with just Brown up forward? Can we play a forward line with both Fritsch and Melksham in it? We've run into forward pressure difficulties before when we've done that.

I see. Looks like they're not currently sure if they can get us into Queensland to play GC (assuming the NT is a write-off). Alternatively they'll have to bring forward one of our West Coast, Adelaide or Geelong games. Given Adelaide is already in Victoria, we may find that game brought forward. But then it gets tough because we don't have neat match ups to move around to make that work.

Yeah well Whateley also thinks there should be a "play in" for the finals where the sides in 9th and 10th get a shot at finishing 7th and 8th. In other words, sometimes he says some silly things.

Maybe because Jackson's not playing as badly as some on Demonland think, whilst Weideman would hardly be an upgrade? Jackson's primary benefit to the side is his time in the ruck/midfield, not his time in the forward line. Weideman would be the opposite way around. It throws structures out. Weideman can't run around in the midfield covering the more athletic rucks (like Tim English) the way Jackson can, and he's never really shown an ability to be a link up midfielder like Jackson.

I reckon one of the other reasons their scoring has dropped off is that their first 10 games weren't all that hard. They opened the season with Collingwood, West Coast (in Melbourne), North, Brisbane (in Ballarat, at the end of Brisbane being unexpectedly stuck in Victoria for three weeks), Gold Coast, GWS, Richmond, Carlton, Port and St Kilda. Since then they've had us, Fremantle (in Perth), Geelong (in Geelong), West Coast (in Perth), North, Sydney and Gold Coast. IMO, the latter 7 games have been against better quality sides and they've played a little bit worse as a result (it's all relative though, they're still 12-4!). They've had 8 more scoring shots across 7 weeks. Barely one more per game. All 8 of them were goals too, so they've scored barely one goal a game more than us over the same period. So whilst technically yes it's been better, the difference is negligible.

I think there's no doubt at all that if the MCG can hold 40,000 on Grand Final day, the Grand Final will be at the MCG. The AFL will have a threshold figure in mind and I suspect it will be lower than 40,000.

Returning to footy, does anyone know what this article says? The photo has Hawthorn and Melbourne in it and so I'm wondering if it talks about us?

The conventional wisdom has been that after this week we'd fly to the Gold Coast, then from there to Perth to play West Coast. I wonder, though, whether we'll be staying in Melbourne to get our game vs Adelaide played while they're here. I could foresee the AFL reshuffling our games to keep us in Vic for a block, and then interstate for the GC and WC games, rather than sending us interstate for two weeks but still needing to bring us back.

We're 9-0 against the top 11 and the only team we haven't beaten is the only team we haven't played. But you only need to read Demonland to see why people think, after the draw with Hawthorn (and the loss to GWS two weeks earlier), we're not good enough.

Remember we won that game?