grazman

Ok, not having seen the match yet as I have been O/S can you tell me what % you would put on us winning the match with Hogan and out of interest what % with Pedo?

John Maynard Keynes is often quoted for what appears to be an apocryphal rather than actual statement he made when he said: "when the facts change, I change my ideas". In this case though I see nothing to change. Firstly I was talking more about Lewis and the utility of his action on the day and not about Hogan or Vince. Interestingly listening to Lewis being interviewed by Gerard and Dwayne he mentioned the outside perception before he came to the Demons were perceived as a bit soft and this may have played into his decision to smack Cripps. It's funny how different people hear different things from the same message. I like Lewis, he doesn't put on some act to appease. He knows what success is and while he's repentent for what he's done, he's not contrite if that makes sense. Secondly, if we were talking about the outcome as the determination of whther I should change my opinion (and I mentioned that this shouldn't be seen as a correlation) then missing Hogan is as irrelevant as the non selection of Pedersen for first gamer Smith. Which maybe indicative of Goodwin's priorities for the year in terms of development first and if we play finals then great. Speaking of changing opinions I note that Freo made 6 changes to their team and won which goes against the grain slightly in terms of both the trend and their form. I'm glad Ross pulled the trigger when he did though, at least as suporters we shouldn't be mentally jumped by a better than expected Fremantle.

Milked an extrension out of the Suns and still has a year to run on a million a year. Geelong can't afford to get him and the way he's playing the Suns can't afford to keep him.

True and we've had our fair share of shrinking violets in the past. We now have a team of competitors and we are developing our own brand of unsociable football. Lewis is instrumental as we are still a young side. Many of them can stand up for themselves, but its guys like Bernie and Jordie that make the opposition hear footsteps. They've been given this remit by Goodie it appears. As PD said though some slight adjustments are required.

I saw the logic. We banked 4 points against a shyte team we've struggled to beat in the past. We were in trouble when that little fracas occured (which is a very old school method of stopping the opposition's momentum). When the going gets tough sometimes you just need to fly the flag. It was illegal, but how many touches did Cripps get and goals did Carlton get after that? Coincidence perhaps, but contrary to most it was the sort of leadership I was hoping for from Lewis. You don't get to push us around anymore. Does his missing three weeks hurts their team - yes it does, but not to the extent that it will be the difference between winning and losing. We have beaten Geelong, Freo and Richmond previously without Lewis. I'm glad he's back for Essendon. When Lewis came to the Dees, I said to a hawks supporter that we don't lose those types of matches to Carlton and Essendon any more and so far we haven't. There was a good chance we could have though without him.

Lewis will get a week for contact to the head. Hogan should get off for bad acting. Soft free kick.

Not really an oversight if he thought Petracca would go number 1. What's apparent is the club rated McCartin in the top 3 talents for that draft. What Jason Taylor's order would have been is speculative.

He isn't fast enough to be a forward IMO, he doesn't have much spring and he isn't fierce at the ball.

I have to disagree Nash. There was no structural change, but we did change tactics, rather than reacting to the way the Saints were playing we got our hands on the ball, switched constantly back through the corridor (very risky at times, but paid off in spades) and kicked over their thin zone to blokes leading into space. That's how we put on ten unanswered goals. The commentators were constantly saying how we have now lowered our eyes to pick out our targets. The biggest tick for me yesterday was Goodwin, the bloke can coach. There was no panic, just reinforcing the way we want to play not the way the Saints were forcing us to play in the first quarter. Not surprisingly it was the experienced players and our leaders that led the charge. Also telling for me was Goodwin's presser where he made special mention of how he wants Jack Watts to jump at the ball aerially and he was happy with his performance despite his low numbers. He wants that contest to either mark the ball or bring it to ground for players like Garlett, ANB, Hannan and Kent when he's back in. That is Jack's KPI that he needs to deliver on, be brave in the air (I imagine the second one is to keep his feet in contests). I wasn't expecting an arm chair ride from Razor Ray, but fair dinkum how many times do they have to illegally dispose of the ball while being tackled before we were awarded. I didn't notice the drag downs in the marking contest, but the worst display of umpiring yesterday was Gold Coast and Brisbane and Harris Andrew's constant scragging of Tom Lynch that was worse than anything SOS ever did in his day. How the umpires don't pay free kicks for that stuff is amazing and hopefully it gets looked at during the week. Finally I thought Brayshaw and Salem while they went unnoticed were very, very good. Both were hard at it and provided important outside run.

I blame you.

Burgoyne is 35 this year, Gibson and Hodge 33 - they need all three to be at their best. Smith, Birchall, Duryea, Whitecross etc look like good ordinary footballers without them.

Would Vardy have passed the medical? Geelong gambled on him being right for the last five years and lost, West Coast were desperate to fill the gap with Nick Nat and Lycett on the injured list. For extra insurance they got Petrie in case Vardy doesn't work out.

I'm not sure what constitutes a midfield anymore. Most teams seem to run about 16 players through there at various stages. If the JLT is anything to go by then Hogan will be a part time midfielder (when Gawn goes forward)- certainly Hunt who should have been included in your group is as much a midfielder as a defender. Anyway I agree with your premise - but inexperience is our Achilles heel across all three lines (especially forward). I see four sides having superior midfields to ours at the moment. Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide and GWS. I think we are comparable with the Bulldogs, Saints and Geelong and superior to everyone else (even Hawthorn who I think will find it hard to transition from the old guard to the new guard). A side like Collingwood for example whose best six midfielders are probably pound for pound better than us at this stage,will suffer when you add the other 6-10 players who play anywhere from half forward to half back. Our finals fortunes rest on how much we can improve our consistency compared to last year. The gap is narrowing and I expect Jordan Lewis to be one of our best pick ups in the last 30 years. Where as someone like Bernie might gather the ball 30 times a game, he will also has brain explosions. Lewis uses the ball so well and brings that on field direction and leadership we so desperately need to support guys like Jones and Viney.

I belive it might have happened in the last JLT match, where it looked like he landed awkwardly and jammed his foot into the turf. Commentators seemed to think that it would be ok - but the again it could also be broken.

Well Kent and Tyson have injuries that have precluded them thus far. My view of Jetta like Watts would be they might be playing at Casey for the start of the season.

not sure if he was rested in the last, but suspect he was as when he's on the field he's where the ball is at. Goes alright does Clarrie - Essendon can keep Parish, I like this guy.

No Garlett Red?

The later, they have four no 1 picks, and only one of them they can take to the bank in the rebuild. The only player missing from their best 22 is Cripps (who is injured and you assume would have played if he was fit). Their ruck stocks are thin with their reserve back up ruck (Goringge) going down with an achilles (Phillips has stress fractures in his foot) and relying almost solely on Kreuzer to stay on the park. Not hard to understand why GWS packaged up so many players in the fire sale - and if you believe the rumours - there maybe some discontent with SOS's list management as players like Palmer, Wiley etc are list cloggers. Long story short is the get out of jail card is that Bolton is experimenting in the preseason, but he has limited cattle and knows this year and next they are going to be on the end of some fearful hidings.

Most of the consensus seems to be that we will try to field our strongest side (albeit that there's some non-negotiables for a few players to get past first). If Kent and Tyson are right they come straight in. Johnstone goes out and I think Harmes is in trouble. Can't see them changing Spencer for Pedersen TBH, they could've done that already and are keen to give both Max time up forward and Jake some extended ruck time. I'm not sure that might not be how we start the season off as well with Jesse moving up the field. Jett's is fighting for a spot with Melksham not Smith IMO and I think Goodie will favour Melksham's running. With Wagner going down I think Smith will play rd 1 with Hibberd - both can play tall or small and both are good rebounders.

It's a hard thing as a long suffering supporter to imagine what depth looks like at Melbourne. Assuming that the JLT series and Goodwin's comments reflect those in the mix for Round 1 - then there's quite a few some would have seen as automatic inclusions in Rd 22 waiting in the wings for their chance through injury/suspension or form. Watts, Jetta, Frost, Stretch, Bugg, Harmes and Pedersen all miss out. Backs: Hibberd, T Mac, Vince H Backs: Jones, O, Mac, Smith Centre: Hunt, Lewis, Brayshaw H Fwd: AVB, Hogan, Petracca, Fwd: Kent, Weideman, Garlett Rucks: Gawn, Tyson, Viney INT: Oliver, Salem, Melksham, Spencer. Emerg: Stretch, Bugg, Harmes I think Spencer will get the nod, there's lots of reasons why we wouldn't play two rucks in a conventional set up, but with Hogan roaming up the ground (including as a Ruck Rover at times) and Max's ability to go forward, Jake actually gives more flexibility to the side because he's a genuine ruck compared to Pedersen/Watts who only give you a limited chop out. Stretch very unlucky, but it depends on how Kent pulls up in a couple of weeks. I know some won't have AVB in their side, but I think Goodwin will. One of the commentators mentioned that he was all about the angles and cutting down the oppositions options. AVB does that exceptionally well, he runs the angles and crashes into blokes, doesn't get a heap of it (most High Half Forwards don't) but plays his role - and is a reliable shot on goal. The consistent theme of the entire 22 that I've picked is that they're combative players.

You must have watched a different game to me. I thought Port were absolutely putrid in the first half and their game supports my theory that last year wasn't and aberration, we'll see them continue to slide under Hinkley. They improved on their woeful skill execution after half time, but I think the problems with their decision making is due to the game plan. Their bottom six are pretty ordinary and while guys like Westhoff, Hartlett and Dixon are serviceable they would want to have more impact for what they are getting paid. I liked Jack Steele's game for the Saints, but I didn't see anything we haven't seen before - McCartin looks to be developing (but Petracca will be better), but their older players are looking very old now. I would be surprised if they played all of Riewoldt, Gilbert, Montgana, Armitage and Dempster round one. Carlisle and Brown help structurally down back, but naturally I like our list better than theirs and I think if you are going to shake some monkeys off your back then round one is the best time to do it.

While I know you're tongue is in you cheek Red, sadly it's there because the AFL are unlikely to do what the NRL and IOC do when it comes to cheating and that is take away the rewards for those that are exposed as breaking the rules.

Yes, I got a similar call from the past players association with the implication that this was the club raffle that I normally purchase tickets for (even told me that the instant scratch and win was back). I haven't received my ticket yet to confirm that it is the one and the same.

Hmmmmm....yessssss Harley's troublesome calf. Because the AFL are completely honest about everything at all times. Not a go at you DD - just a natural born sceptic.

You are now my favourite poster. Excellent post.