Axis of Bob

Interestingly the players that played the were generally those that could play on the outside in their later career. Brent Harvey, Kevin Barlett, Michael Tuck, Shaun Burgoyne, Robert Harvey, Craig Bradley, Adam Goodes, Brad Johnson, John Blakey, Gary Ablett, Doug Hawkins, Kade Simpson ...... Some of those were inside players at their peak, but they got the longevity by being able to play outside. That's what we're seeing with Jones, Lewis and Vince, who didn't have great pace to start with so fell away one they slowed down from 'average' to 'slow'. Isaac Smith, provided he stays injury free, will not become 'slow', but he may move from 'fast' to 'average' whilst still remaining a great aerobic athlete. Even an averagely quick Isaac Smith is still a very good wingman and should continue be for a number of years (injury dependent).

Not true. Lake played his first game at Hawthorn as a 31 year old. https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/B/Brian_Lake.html

Seemed to work out OK for Brian Lake to squeeze out 3 Hawthorn premierships.

It is strange, if true. North are in a no win situation now. It's been hard for North to land free-agents because those free agents could see that the list was right at the end of its run, and they were that good anyway. We were like that, where substantial free agents and wantaways wouldn't come because we weren't attactive. The best way to start attracting players to your club is to build a core group of players that make others think that they have a successful future. After that it's self-fulfilling because the good players now attract good players which makes them successful which attracts good players etc. But they need to just eat the [censored] sandwich for a few years so that they can build a young group that can attract others. They have an extra first round pick, so it will be interesting to see how they attack the trade period. As for what they do with Polec, I suppose that's entirely dependent on whether they think the relationship is salvageable. If they think they can then the only downside is whatever compensation we'd be offering them, which may not be much.

Also, just looking at the stats on Draft Central, it looks like she's been playing a lone hand on a pretty dismal Gippsland team. Whilst Gippy has won just one game in the past 2 years, Fitsimon has been named in their top 3 players on all but 1 of the 11 games she's played with them. I think that's what the comment of 'will benefit from playing alongside some quality teammates' means!

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823379/nab-aflw-draft-mietta-kendall?videoId=823379&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601975948001 Looks competitive, strong and good pace. Doesn't quite look natural around the ball yet, which is probably why she's at half back at the moment. But looks to give it a real roost, which is actually a much more important trait in AFLW than the men's game and can set up a lot of scores if you win it at half back and go quickly.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823313/nab-aflw-draft-alyssa-bannan?videoId=823313&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601972755001 Seems to have a good, long kick too, which is especially important for a key forward in AFLW.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823367/nab-aflw-draft-megan-fitzsimon?videoId=823367&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601974679001 Looks to have some pace and class (and talent). There's a real need to have players that can win contests and hit the scoreboard in AFLW.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823336/nab-aflw-draft-maggie-caris?videoId=823336&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601974129001 The kicking action should have a NSFW label on it, but clearly very athletic and good spatial sense. Will need to work on the footy skills, being a recent convert, but there seems to be a lot to work with.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823328/nab-aflw-draft-elizabeth-mcnamara?videoId=823328&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601973555001 Not quite, we got her at pick 15 .... but that doesn't mean it's not a steal! The video looks impressive. Only looks fairly slight but seems an really natural footballer with obviously great athleticism. I think this is the sort of player that the coaching staff were talking about that have grown up playing football in a way that previous players haven't and possibly being able to have impact early. You can see in the way she moves with the football and takes on the game in a way that recent converts don't. Based on 46 seconds of footage (!!) she seems a very exciting talent.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823387/nab-aflw-draft-isabella-simmons?videoId=823387&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601977278001 Looks like a project, but moves very impressively for 186cm.

Apparently a seriously good junior netballer who will pursue the two sports together. Seems pretty switched on too so I imagine that there will be a lot of improvement in her over the years. Seems like more of a project at this point. As for the height, I'm not sure if she's the tallest, but Lauren Pearce is 184cm, Emma King is 187cm and Sharni Layton is 188cm. So if she isn't then she'd be pretty close!

I think the coaches will be pretty happy that the Bulldogs chose Fitzgerald at 2, leaving us with the chance to pick the best forward available. We have a stated weakness up forward and being able to bring in a tall forward that can win contests will be very pleasing. They gave up a lot to get into the first couple of picks and I imagine they'll be pretty excited at the result.

Matt Jones came 4th in that same B&F, only 3 votes adrift. If you're giving Terlich a tick then Jones gets one too.

https://womens.afl/news/52583/ Phantom draft is up. It looks like the top 4 in the Victorian pool are a step above, which explains why we've gone hard at one of those selections.

The other interesting thing is that the Qualifying finals (with the top 4 teams) were dominated by the small forwards, whilst the Elimination finals (5th - 8th) were dominated by the talls. It'll be interesting to see how that plays itself out over the remaining finals.

He'll be in mandated quarantine for 2 weeks ... but after that seems a bit sketchy. It's effectively a 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 chance that the president of the USA dies in office (given that any inauguration would happen in January)!! I think it will make it incredibly difficult for him politically, since this will be the only real issue that anyone will be able to deal with in the final month of the campaign. The handling of COVID is an extremely weak point for Trump politically, especially in places like Florida where the residents trend elderly, and by getting COVID he has effectively made himself a giant billboard for one of his biggest political weaknesses.

Dr Norman Swan says that the stats indicate that Trump's mortality rate, given his age and obesity, is likely to be between 7 and 18%.

Giving Smith a year, after being selected for the last 4 games of the year whilst we were competing for a finals spot, indicates that the coaching group thinks he provides some value. He only got a one year deal, so they're clearly not convinced, but he's certainly worth a spot on a list rather than pick 80 in a year where half the potential draftees haven't even played a competitive game. As for Jones, even if it isn't just about coaching, I can see him getting a year on the list. He's not the player he used to be but he's still a player capable of being in the bottom couple of players filling a role in the side. From round 8 on, he played every game where he was fit (and even one he wasn't!) because of his ability to do a selfless role to a reasonable level. Plus his cost is almost zero (ie, the same pick 80 as above), so why not? Plus he would be a good influence around the group.

I appreciate that Murph, however whilst I am grateful and flattered by some positive comments I received of late, I'm pretty uncomfortable with it. I think it's really important important to note that I'm not an expert on any of this, and have only the barest amount of information and experience of those employed at football clubs. There is so much that they know about football that we don't know, nor would we even realise what information is around for us not to know! I think we all need to realise this, and also that there isn't one way to skin a cat in a game as complex and random as AFL. But it's still fun to try to work these things out with many of the thoughtful posters on here.

I agree that it isn't typical and also not a surefire winner, but the key is Jackson. The opposition may wish to focus on Weid, as they probably will, but they will likely be in different parts of the ground. Weid didn't have the high impact late in the year because he was forced to stand down the line and just compete for long balls whilst his best footy was as a move flexible foil for McDonald. Most of his success came from either getting out the back or getting it one on one. He's quite mobile and clever but couldn't use any of that doing the dog work down the line. By bringing in Brown/Petty, you can have them set up down the line to do the aerial competing and Weid can be set up slightly away either to attack the contest if in range or position himself to be dangerous as the next target. For instance, you may wish to focus on stopping Charlie Cameron, but if Brisbane are still going to kick it long to McStay then you still need to defend it and that creates opportunities for others. As for whether it's possible, last night Port mostly played 3 tall forwards (Dixon, Marshall and Ladhams), which mostly shut down Geelong's strong interceptors and allowed their dangerous small forwards to reap the benefits. But Jackson is unlike any of those forwards because of his unique mobility for a player of his size. His unique attributes make him the sort of player that we can almost create a position for. You could play him as a medium forward, or perhaps even as a 'high half/tall forward' where he plays up around the ball but then pushes forward as a marking threat. Where he ends up, we don't really know because he's different to what has come through in the past. I suppose my point is that we should be setting up a structure that functions without Jackson because Jackson's flexibility and mobility allows us to play him in unique ways, rather than pigeonholing him as a tall forward. But if we play tall then we do need to get the smalls right around them. Sorry, that's just kind of just a brain dump. I hope it made some sense.

If you run at the wall enough times then eventually you'll pass right through. ?

I'm not 100% against Brown (as much as he annoys me as free kick actor) because he at least provides us with a number 1 target that makes each of our other forwards more effective. Weideman as a second tall this year was very effective, but got smothered as a number 1. But I think we can use our chips in a better way. I think Petty can play as the contesting forward with Weid and Jackson being the dangerous secondaries, much in the way the McStay plays for Brisbane. Brisbane's worst loss this year was against Richmond when McStay was out of the lineup and Richmond key Brisbane to 4 goals (admittedly it was 4.17!). McStay only kicked 10 goals for the year, but he kills the long kick forward, which allows players like Cameron, Hipwood, Rayner, McCarthy and their midfielders to get good opportunities. Weideman did this at the end of the year when forced to, but he more valuable as the second banana. Jackson can play anywhere because he's a freak. But there's only so much salary cap and draft assets to spread around, and there are probably other way we can spend them rather than a key forward. But I can also see the argument in favour of recruiting a high quality marking forward at below market price.

I was initially going to laugh at your comment as the joke it should be, but 2020 has been a pretty weird year, so a St Kilda flag wouldn't feel out of place.

Interestingly, when Tomlinson was playing as a key defender this year we were 5 wins and 2 losses. With Oscar 3W / 4L. With Joel Smith alone (or just May and Lever), 1W / 2L. So he clearly fits the defensive system pretty well and a mobile big body who can keep opponents on the ground in marking contests. Matt Suckling would have with the Bulldogs had he not injured his achilles int he semi-final. And let's see what happens with Grant Birchall ....