Axis of Bob

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823367/nab-aflw-draft-megan-fitzsimon?videoId=823367&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601974679001 Looks to have some pace and class (and talent). There's a real need to have players that can win contests and hit the scoreboard in AFLW.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823336/nab-aflw-draft-maggie-caris?videoId=823336&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601974129001 The kicking action should have a NSFW label on it, but clearly very athletic and good spatial sense. Will need to work on the footy skills, being a recent convert, but there seems to be a lot to work with.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823328/nab-aflw-draft-elizabeth-mcnamara?videoId=823328&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601973555001 Not quite, we got her at pick 15 .... but that doesn't mean it's not a steal! The video looks impressive. Only looks fairly slight but seems an really natural footballer with obviously great athleticism. I think this is the sort of player that the coaching staff were talking about that have grown up playing football in a way that previous players haven't and possibly being able to have impact early. You can see in the way she moves with the football and takes on the game in a way that recent converts don't. Based on 46 seconds of footage (!!) she seems a very exciting talent.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/823387/nab-aflw-draft-isabella-simmons?videoId=823387&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601977278001 Looks like a project, but moves very impressively for 186cm.

Apparently a seriously good junior netballer who will pursue the two sports together. Seems pretty switched on too so I imagine that there will be a lot of improvement in her over the years. Seems like more of a project at this point. As for the height, I'm not sure if she's the tallest, but Lauren Pearce is 184cm, Emma King is 187cm and Sharni Layton is 188cm. So if she isn't then she'd be pretty close!

I think the coaches will be pretty happy that the Bulldogs chose Fitzgerald at 2, leaving us with the chance to pick the best forward available. We have a stated weakness up forward and being able to bring in a tall forward that can win contests will be very pleasing. They gave up a lot to get into the first couple of picks and I imagine they'll be pretty excited at the result.

Matt Jones came 4th in that same B&F, only 3 votes adrift. If you're giving Terlich a tick then Jones gets one too.

https://womens.afl/news/52583/ Phantom draft is up. It looks like the top 4 in the Victorian pool are a step above, which explains why we've gone hard at one of those selections.

The other interesting thing is that the Qualifying finals (with the top 4 teams) were dominated by the small forwards, whilst the Elimination finals (5th - 8th) were dominated by the talls. It'll be interesting to see how that plays itself out over the remaining finals.

He'll be in mandated quarantine for 2 weeks ... but after that seems a bit sketchy. It's effectively a 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 chance that the president of the USA dies in office (given that any inauguration would happen in January)!! I think it will make it incredibly difficult for him politically, since this will be the only real issue that anyone will be able to deal with in the final month of the campaign. The handling of COVID is an extremely weak point for Trump politically, especially in places like Florida where the residents trend elderly, and by getting COVID he has effectively made himself a giant billboard for one of his biggest political weaknesses.

Dr Norman Swan says that the stats indicate that Trump's mortality rate, given his age and obesity, is likely to be between 7 and 18%.

Giving Smith a year, after being selected for the last 4 games of the year whilst we were competing for a finals spot, indicates that the coaching group thinks he provides some value. He only got a one year deal, so they're clearly not convinced, but he's certainly worth a spot on a list rather than pick 80 in a year where half the potential draftees haven't even played a competitive game. As for Jones, even if it isn't just about coaching, I can see him getting a year on the list. He's not the player he used to be but he's still a player capable of being in the bottom couple of players filling a role in the side. From round 8 on, he played every game where he was fit (and even one he wasn't!) because of his ability to do a selfless role to a reasonable level. Plus his cost is almost zero (ie, the same pick 80 as above), so why not? Plus he would be a good influence around the group.

I appreciate that Murph, however whilst I am grateful and flattered by some positive comments I received of late, I'm pretty uncomfortable with it. I think it's really important important to note that I'm not an expert on any of this, and have only the barest amount of information and experience of those employed at football clubs. There is so much that they know about football that we don't know, nor would we even realise what information is around for us not to know! I think we all need to realise this, and also that there isn't one way to skin a cat in a game as complex and random as AFL. But it's still fun to try to work these things out with many of the thoughtful posters on here.

I agree that it isn't typical and also not a surefire winner, but the key is Jackson. The opposition may wish to focus on Weid, as they probably will, but they will likely be in different parts of the ground. Weid didn't have the high impact late in the year because he was forced to stand down the line and just compete for long balls whilst his best footy was as a move flexible foil for McDonald. Most of his success came from either getting out the back or getting it one on one. He's quite mobile and clever but couldn't use any of that doing the dog work down the line. By bringing in Brown/Petty, you can have them set up down the line to do the aerial competing and Weid can be set up slightly away either to attack the contest if in range or position himself to be dangerous as the next target. For instance, you may wish to focus on stopping Charlie Cameron, but if Brisbane are still going to kick it long to McStay then you still need to defend it and that creates opportunities for others. As for whether it's possible, last night Port mostly played 3 tall forwards (Dixon, Marshall and Ladhams), which mostly shut down Geelong's strong interceptors and allowed their dangerous small forwards to reap the benefits. But Jackson is unlike any of those forwards because of his unique mobility for a player of his size. His unique attributes make him the sort of player that we can almost create a position for. You could play him as a medium forward, or perhaps even as a 'high half/tall forward' where he plays up around the ball but then pushes forward as a marking threat. Where he ends up, we don't really know because he's different to what has come through in the past. I suppose my point is that we should be setting up a structure that functions without Jackson because Jackson's flexibility and mobility allows us to play him in unique ways, rather than pigeonholing him as a tall forward. But if we play tall then we do need to get the smalls right around them. Sorry, that's just kind of just a brain dump. I hope it made some sense.

If you run at the wall enough times then eventually you'll pass right through. ?

I'm not 100% against Brown (as much as he annoys me as free kick actor) because he at least provides us with a number 1 target that makes each of our other forwards more effective. Weideman as a second tall this year was very effective, but got smothered as a number 1. But I think we can use our chips in a better way. I think Petty can play as the contesting forward with Weid and Jackson being the dangerous secondaries, much in the way the McStay plays for Brisbane. Brisbane's worst loss this year was against Richmond when McStay was out of the lineup and Richmond key Brisbane to 4 goals (admittedly it was 4.17!). McStay only kicked 10 goals for the year, but he kills the long kick forward, which allows players like Cameron, Hipwood, Rayner, McCarthy and their midfielders to get good opportunities. Weideman did this at the end of the year when forced to, but he more valuable as the second banana. Jackson can play anywhere because he's a freak. But there's only so much salary cap and draft assets to spread around, and there are probably other way we can spend them rather than a key forward. But I can also see the argument in favour of recruiting a high quality marking forward at below market price.

I was initially going to laugh at your comment as the joke it should be, but 2020 has been a pretty weird year, so a St Kilda flag wouldn't feel out of place.

Interestingly, when Tomlinson was playing as a key defender this year we were 5 wins and 2 losses. With Oscar 3W / 4L. With Joel Smith alone (or just May and Lever), 1W / 2L. So he clearly fits the defensive system pretty well and a mobile big body who can keep opponents on the ground in marking contests. Matt Suckling would have with the Bulldogs had he not injured his achilles int he semi-final. And let's see what happens with Grant Birchall ....

Interestingly, Frost is 27 and has played 107 games in 9 seasons of AFL football ... but only ever played a single winning season, which was 2018 when he was part of our end of season charge. He's getting a full AFL career as a journeyman defender, and I'm happy to see him getting regular AFL games at Hawthorn in the second half of his career.

Good on him. Desperately unlucky not to finish 6th, given that Sicily only played 11 games. He finished 9th in the B&F for us last year.

His win/loss record would be a lot better if he had never played Preuss and Gawn in the same team! ?

He has tried it for 7 games since he's come to the club. We are 1 win and 6 losses in those games. When he was the sole ruck we were 2 wins and 1 loss. The year before he played 6 games with Goldstein ..... they lost all 6 games. He was only involved in one win, and that was when Goldstein was injured and Preuss was the number 1 ruckman. Overall, when playing in a 2 ruck setup, Preuss is 1 win and 12 losses, whilst being 3 wins 2 losses when rucking alone. I'm not sure how much more evidence we need to understand that Preuss as a second ruck is definitely not a winning tactic!

These are the ruck trades (excluding those that are so complicated that it's hard to ascertain the value) simplified from the past 10 seasons so that we can get an idea for the value of Preuss. Some are mentioned twice because they've been traded multiple times. Matthew Lobbe, Jonathan Giles - Free-ish Sam Jacobs, Darcy Cameron, Zac Smith, Marc Pittonet, Andrew Phillips, Nathan Vardy, Stef Martin, Jonathon Griffin – 4th round Toby Nankervis, Trent West – 3rd round Tom Hickey, Jarrod Witts, Zac Smith – 2nd / 3rd round Shaun Hampson, Shane Mumford, Billy Longer, Tom Hickey, Ivan Maric, Brent Renouf, Sam Jacobs – 2nd round Paddy Ryder, Ben McEvoy, David Hale – 1st round I think Preuss sits comfortably in the second round, perhaps even at the early end of it. The difference between a lot of the rucks on this list and Preuss is that barely any were in contract and were leaving for more opportunity. We have Preuss in contract, so we don't have to accept a sub-par trade. I'd be extremely surprised if we got anything less than a decent second round pick for him, especially with the thin ruck stocks for trade this year.

It was measuring top speed, so how long it takes to reach the top speed is irrelevant. But Salem running a 12.30 second 100m sprint time during a game passes the pub test. The stats check out, even if they don't really mean much, so trying to convince you to believe meaningless facts is not important to me. But I did enjoy calculating Salem's 100m sprint speed. ?

Here's a good article about Usain Bolt's speed during the Beijing Olympics. https://www.quantamagazine.org/infinite-powers-usain-bolt-and-the-art-of-calculus-20190403/ Because I'm a nerd (and lockdown is clearly doing things to my brain!) I actually tried to fit in Salem's maximum speed with Bolt's maximum speed, then adjusted it to Bolt's Olympic world record speed profile graph (in the article) to see what Salem's typical 100m sprint time would be with that top speed. FWIW, that top speed is the equivalent of Salem running a 12.30 second 100 metre sprint. That's not bad considering it was with fatigue during a 100 minute long game of football and he has not been training for a sprint event.